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89Topps

Michael Conforto 2020 Outlook

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First off, this guy is a tremendous follow if you're not already.  That is a great thread with lots of very good info.

Conforto is interesting.  I drafted him fairly early last year and he did pretty much what I'd projected, but in the age of happy fun ball, it just felt disappointing.

Another season of ~.255, 90, 35, 90 & 5?  Kinda "meh" and oddly replaceable late in drafts and even via free agency.

ADP of about 117.  So, what do we think?

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40 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

First off, this guy is a tremendous follow if you're not already.  That is a great thread with lots of very good info.

Conforto is interesting.  I drafted him fairly early last year and he did pretty much what I'd projected, but in the age of happy fun ball, it just felt disappointing.

Another season of ~.255, 90, 35, 90 & 5?  Kinda "meh" and oddly replaceable late in drafts and even via free agency.

ADP of about 117.  So, what do we think?

 

I have always liked this guy, and feel he has another gear. That line is still good, especially in OBP leagues. 

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I've always said on here he's capable of hitting .300 if he tried to instead of hitting for power. I think in 2017 and 2019 he found a nice blend of power and average. He will always take a ton of walks, which makes him extremely valuable in OBP leagues. The occasional stolen bases are also nice, especially at a time when speed is very scarce. His ability to get on bases combined with a good top of lineup should allow him to be a plus in runs and RBI.

I do agree with the OP that the 33 HR was really nice but with the juiced ball you'd almost expect him to be capable of a lot more based on his approach. He's still relatively young and so there could definitely be some untapped potential.

His ADP is reasonable at 113. Based on his style, he is minor improvement from being a top 50 value, but also minor decline from being borderline startable. So I don't blame people that will pass on him and go for power later, but there is real potential here that he can breakout and hit for better average to go with the power.

In OBP leagues, he's a 4 category player plus occasional SBs, and should be considered inside the top 100.

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Annually, he puts up a similar stat line to Eddie Rosario of MIN (ADP 92) only with an average 15-20 points lower.  Both have been steady, reliable contributors with occasional crazy hot streaks that can carry a team in short bursts throughout the season (...and corresponding cold streaks of course).   If your team is lacking in batting average, you should probably try for Rosario, but if BA isn't a concern I think you're better off waiting an extra round or two and taking Conforto.  And, Conforto walks WAY more than Rosario so in OBP or BB points leagues Conforto is a better value.  I agree with Sidearmer above that he is top 100 in OBP leagues.

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Always believed in his talent, at his current ADP will be on most of my team(already is in Keeper and Dynasty) and has great value in OBP leagues

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He had a BABIP/AVG/OBP of:

2017: .328/.279/.384

2018: .289/.243/.350

2019: .290/.257/.363

Looks like they move in tandem.  I'm not sure how one raises one's BABIP, but if it jumps at all then he becomes a rock solid 4-tool player in standard 5x5.

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I was really high on Conforto last year. But the problem is that he is terrible against LHP.  This will limit his avg potential and his counting stats somewhat.  I think they batted him 5th or 6th vs lefties iirc.  And of course he will see a lhp late in close games.

i like the way he swings but he kind of lowers down a little bit.  His swing reminds me a bit of Cody Bellinger.  His stats are actually similar to Bellinger before Bellinger blossomed and learned to hit lhp effectively. I’m wondering if a good hitting coach couldn’t make an adjustment for Conforto, just copy Bellinger basically.

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10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I was really high on Conforto last year. But the problem is that he is terrible against LHP.  This will limit his avg potential and his counting stats somewhat.  I think they batted him 5th or 6th vs lefties iirc.  And of course he will see a lhp late in close games.

i like the way he swings but he kind of lowers down a little bit.  His swing reminds me a bit of Cody Bellinger.  His stats are actually similar to Bellinger before Bellinger blossomed and learned to hit lhp effectively. I’m wondering if a good hitting coach couldn’t make an adjustment for Conforto, just copy Bellinger basically.

 

He's bad against LHP but its always been overstated. He had a slow start against them when he first broke into the MLB and that made the Mets cast him as a platoon player for multiple years. They finally gave him a shot in 2018 and he has been solid. In 2018 and 2019 he hit over .240 with 16 HR in ~370 AB against LHP. Not great, but when combined with absolutely mashing RHP it works. He arguably was better against LHP than RHP in 2018 in fact.

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His little spurt of decency in 2018 against lefties was supported by a spike to a .320 BABIP.  His BB/K ratio against them was atrocious.  59Ks in 168 at bats,  That's a pace for maybe 200 ks in a full season.

Hey I'm not saying the book is closed.  Far from it.  But he needs to make adjustments to hit lefties and take himself to the next tier.

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On 2/10/2020 at 11:58 PM, KingJoffrey said:

I was really high on Conforto last year. But the problem is that he is terrible against LHP.  This will limit his avg potential and his counting stats somewhat.  I think they batted him 5th or 6th vs lefties iirc.  And of course he will see a lhp late in close games.

i like the way he swings but he kind of lowers down a little bit.  His swing reminds me a bit of Cody Bellinger.  His stats are actually similar to Bellinger before Bellinger blossomed and learned to hit lhp effectively. I’m wondering if a good hitting coach couldn’t make an adjustment for Conforto, just copy Bellinger basically.

 

you have to consider the new 3 batter rule, if he hits behind Alonso they will likely throw a RHP, so IMO guys like Conforto will benefit a ton due to the change.

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On 2/12/2020 at 1:43 AM, axiom20XX said:

 

you have to consider the new 3 batter rule, if he hits behind Alonso they will likely throw a RHP, so IMO guys like Conforto will benefit a ton due to the change.

Solid thought 

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Dealing with an injury to his side, possibly after making a catch in Saturday’s spring training game. Headed to New York to see the Mets team doctor. Does he slip further in drafts with this news? Hopefully it’s not a serious oblique injury.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/michael-conforto-to-return-to-new-york-to-meet-with-mets-medical-director/313010106

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7 minutes ago, Jub Jub said:

Dealing with an injury to his side, possibly after making a catch in Saturday’s spring training game. Headed to New York to see the Mets team doctor. Does he slip further in drafts with this news? Hopefully it’s not a serious oblique injury.

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/michael-conforto-to-return-to-new-york-to-meet-with-mets-medical-director/313010106

MRI results not disclosed + flying back to New York = probably something serious.  F*&k.

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Definitely a downgrade. Drafted him less than 24 hours before this news, definitely would not take him where I did had this been known. 2-3 round downgrade for now.

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49 minutes ago, Magoo said:

MRI results not disclosed + flying back to New York = probably something serious.  F*&k.

 

+ Mets doctors = he'll be dead in a week.

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3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Definitely a downgrade. Drafted him less than 24 hours before this news, definitely would not take him where I did had this been known. 2-3 round downgrade for now.

at least

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Leaving Opening Day in question, but I'd be surprised if he's available by then.

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What timeframe are we looking at? It may be something that bothers him for a while, even after he returns. 

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9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

What timeframe are we looking at? It may be something that bothers him for a while, even after he returns. 

It's the Mets so add 12 weeks onto the normal time frame.

My gut says around 5-6 weeks if not too severe.  Obliques are tricky

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

What timeframe are we looking at? It may be something that bothers him for a while, even after he returns. 

Yeah typically don't hitters struggle after being activated with an oblique?

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