BradMaddox

Chris Sale 2020 Outlook

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Thoughts on rebound 2020? Guy has had issues with throwing shoulder and elbow in recent years. Pretty bad slide last year after signing a 5 year extension. 

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I still see him as a top 8 SP. His ceiling remains high, but he's a bit risky. Regardless, he will probably end up on a few of my teams. 

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Not touching my team.  Guy ate a** last year, and has high injury risk.  At some point that elbow is going to snap in half. And the probability is that it happens much sooner, than later.  Let someone else take the risk.  So many arms around him who offer great upside, without the risk.  Let him be someone else’s problem. 

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3 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Not touching my team.  Guy ate a** last year, and has high injury risk.  At some point that elbow is going to snap in half. And the probability is that it happens much sooner, than later.  Let someone else take the risk.  So many arms around him who offer great upside, without the risk.  Let him be someone else’s problem. 

 

Agree with this. He'd going high enough in drafts that there are plenty of elite high upside arms going around him. He may have the highest upside of those guys, but its comparable enough to not risk the downside. This isn't like a Giancarlo Stanton who has similar upside on the offensive side but is going a full 2 rounds later than Sale.

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I love Chris Sale. Sale handed me the championship for my league a few years ago.  But I said to skip him in 2019 and nothing I’ve seen has lead me to believe in a comeback for 2020.  
 

Got hammered by the Jays one game.  A Jays team without any of their rookies.  It was scary.

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He had an absolute worst-case scenario nightmare season... and still put up a2.93 xFIP with 218 strikeouts (more than Walker Buehler). 
 

He is going too low in drafts in my opinion. 

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Per Boston media:

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale is sick and will have the start of his spring training routine slowed as a result, general manager Brian O’Halloran said Tuesday.
 

<insert sarcastic ok gif>
 

Is anyone buying this b.s.? I’m surprised they’re not using the belly button ring irritation excuse.

Edited by meh2

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On 2/11/2020 at 6:21 AM, NoHablaIngles said:

He had an absolute worst-case scenario nightmare season... and still put up a2.93 xFIP with 218 strikeouts (more than Walker Buehler). 
 

He is going too low in drafts in my opinion. 

If he’s back to normal and get 180IP. Of course that’s a steal. Lots think something big injury wise is coming. That’s why the price is what it is. 
 

Him and Mondesi are impossible to value.

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31 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Per Boston media:

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale is sick and will have the start of his spring training routine slowed as a result, general manager Brian O’Halloran said Tuesday.

<insert sarcastic ok gif>
Is anyone buying this b.s.? I’m surprised they’re not using the belly button ring irritation excuse.

Amazingly people actually do get sick.  Not everything is an international conspiracy.

Last year they simply announced all the starters would be slow rolled in spring training due to all the extra pitching in the playoffs the year before.  If that is what they are doing to save Sale's arm this season (slow rolling him) they would just announce same.  They have always announced they were holding him back to keep his arm fresh since his first days on the team.  So yeah he could actually be sick.

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I'm in on sale. I know its going to be risky, but we've seen his track record of success and if his ADP/Price is around $24 while DeGrom etc. are going for $41, I'll take the chance.

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23 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Amazingly people actually do get sick.  Not everything is an international conspiracy.

Last year they simply announced all the starters would be slow rolled in spring training due to all the extra pitching in the playoffs the year before.  If that is what they are doing to save Sale's arm this season (slow rolling him) they would just announce same.  They have always announced they were holding him back to keep his arm fresh since his first days on the team.  So yeah he could actually be sick.

Feel free to check back in in a month. If I am wrong, I’ll be happy to eat crow. I just think this is just the first of many Chris Sale is not right updates to come.

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29 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Feel free to check back in in a month. If I am wrong, I’ll be happy to eat crow. I just think this is just the first of many Chris Sale is not right updates to come.

And I just think that if it is his arm they would at least go with at least "some inflammation" or something.  Not an illness that could easily be detected or not by beat reporters.

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Well the you have it.  Sometimes an illness is just an illness:

Quote

Chris Sale (illness) is expected to report to Red Sox camp Friday.

Sale had been battling the flu, which turned into a mild case of pneumonia. Despite his illness, Sale claims to be feeling much better and resumed throwing Tuesday. He's expected to throw again Wednesday before joining the team in Fort Myers later this week. The stud left-hander labored through a career-worst year in 2019 (6-11, 4.40 ERA), though even in a down season, his strikeout rate (13.32 K/9) was still among the league's highest. After a tumultuous offseason that saw Boston move on from manager Alex Cora as well as perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts, the Red Sox desperately need a bounce-back year from their staff ace.

Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter                       Feb 12, 2020, 12:05 PM ET

 

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I can't help myself but love Chris Sale this year. If I go 2 big time SP1's and get Chris Sale as my SP3 I feel like my staff has the potential to be the best in the league. Is there any reason NOT to be excited about Chris Sale this year? His skills are obviously SP1 best in the game type, but whats driving his price down is his injury risk?

 

IDK I feel like he is becoming an instant buy for me. 

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Sale currently has an ADP of around 37, averaging as the 11th pitcher off the board.  Doubt that a slightly late start to camp due to being sick will affect that.  I don't think you are gonna get him at an SP3 price in any format.  

EDIT: that being said, I definitely agree that if you land him as your SP3, your staff will probably be the best in your league.  You'd just have to use your top 3 draft picks on SPs, assuming there's 10-12 teams in the league.  

Edited by OaksterDan
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2 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

Sale currently has an ADP of around 37, averaging as the 11th pitcher off the board.  Doubt that a slightly late start to camp due to being sick will affect that.  I don't think you are gonna get him at an SP3 price in any format.  

EDIT: that being said, I definitely agree that if you land him as your SP3, your staff will probably be the best in your league.  You'd just have to use your top 3 draft picks on SPs, assuming there's 10-12 teams in the league.  

I did the pocket aces strategy in a 12 team Y! with Degrom/Scherzer as my 1/2 and then in the 4th went Sale and pretty much went all hitters and closers for the next 10 or so rounds. I felt pretty good about that team, at least in roto. 

In deeper auction leagues this year, my strategy is going to be to get as many amazing SP's as I reasonably can, so my main target has been DeGrom with a side of any of: Max, JV, Walker, Flaherty, Bieber, Castillo, etc. and then I haven't been able to resist the urge of jumping at Sale due to what I think could be a massive rebound and potential Cy Young season out of him. 

 

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I know sale has injury risk, but another risk that I think needs to be factored into account is that he... wasn’t good last year.  I do expect him to bounce back but it’s not *inevitable*, even if he does stay healthy

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13 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I know sale has injury risk, but another risk that I think needs to be factored into account is that he... wasn’t good last year.  I do expect him to bounce back but it’s not *inevitable*, even if he does stay healthy

 

He was very good last year. He went into the year the #1 pitcher so maybe expectations skewed our view; but he was very good while on the mound last year. Maybe a bit unlucky.

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6 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

He was very good last year. He went into the year the #1 pitcher so maybe expectations skewed our view; but he was very good while on the mound last year. Maybe a bit unlucky.

 

Owned him and hated it. Completely unpredictable.  The guy is skilled but was a H2H nightmare for me. 

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

He was very good last year. He went into the year the #1 pitcher so maybe expectations skewed our view; but he was very good while on the mound last year. Maybe a bit unlucky.


He had a 4.mid Era and would randomly blow up with 8 ER starts 

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ADP is too rich considering injury issues.

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