BradMaddox

Chris Sale 2020 Outlook

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51 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

He had a 2.93 xFIP and more strikeouts than Walker Buehler.
 

Even in a down season, he provided value. 
 

 


XFIP does not provide value... lol 

my point was that he wasn’t actually that incredibly amazing last year even without considering injury risk 

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He didn't have bad stats last year.  218 ks to 37 walks.  1.09 WHIP, .221 BAA.  He was only "not good" in ERA and Wins.  Wins is a fluky stat and the high ERA combined with low walks/BAA leads me to believe he pitched a lot worse with runners on base (I admittedly haven't looked up that stat as I don't know where to find it).  I have no idea if that's a stat that sticks from one year to the next or not, but I don't see any reason to write Sale off just yet.  

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Nobody is concerned about his velo drop? Which I believe was one of the reasons for his struggle and could mean he wont ever be who he was.

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3 hours ago, fingy said:

Nobody is concerned about his velo drop? Which I believe was one of the reasons for his struggle and could mean he wont ever be who he was.

Of course there are, myself included. He’s on the fade list of many experienced players. That’s why he’s no longer a first or second round pick. If you look at his velocity charts (http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/01/2018&endDate=02/16/2020) the issues  seemed to start when he had a velocity spike in August of 2018. For whatever reason he was averaging over 98mph on his fastball that month and shortly after started having shoulder problems. The shoulder was a problem for the rest of the season so he and the Red Sox medical staff came up with the plan of starting off 2019 intentionally not throwing as hard. While his shoulder seemed to hold up it clearly impacted his effectiveness. As the season went on we started to see the normal Chris Sale again until the elbow issue popped up. Ending the season shut down, visiting Dr. Andrews, and getting PRP injections are most definitely red flags for me. I now am concerned about the possibility of recurring issues with the elbow and the worse case scenario of TJ surgery in his future. The Sox will have to come up with a plan again to try to prevent this so I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts slowly again or maybe they try to skip starts or limit innings. Pitching in the northeast on those cold April days can’t be good for him so it wouldn’t surprise me to see a late April debut either. He’s the riskiest pick in the first three rounds, imo. 

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Hate to say he is on my do not draft list after being my favorite pitcher to watch for nearly a decade. Just too much risk.

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26 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Hate to say he is on my do not draft list after being my favorite pitcher to watch for nearly a decade. Just too much risk.

Agree way to much risk

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12 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

It's pneumonia related, so no big deal. Hopefully this comes with a slight discount. 

I mean, pneumonia is kind of a big deal. 

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40 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

I mean, pneumonia is kind of a big deal. 

Sale is basically over the bout of pneumonia. It can be relatively mild, which appears to be the case for Sale. He's just a couple weeks behind. I would be more concerned if his arm was barking. 

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17 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Sale is basically over the bout of pneumonia. It can be relatively mild, which appears to be the case for Sale. He's just a couple weeks behind. I would be more concerned if his arm was barking. 

I get what you're saying. Seriously though pneumonia can sap your endurance, cause weight loss, etc so it's further cause to fade him IMO. There are effects that can linger. 

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Pneumonia makes sense because his spring photo that was circulating looks like he hasn’t ate in a decade.  Easy pass for me this year.  Unless he’s coming after pick 100 he won’t be on my team.  I’ll let someone else take the gamble.  A lot of other arms I like without as many questions going far after.

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Pneumonia makes sense because his spring photo that was circulating looks like he hasn’t ate in a decade.  Easy pass for me this year.  Unless he’s coming after pick 100 he won’t be on my team.  I’ll let someone else take the gamble.  A lot of other arms I like without as many questions going far after.

He always looks that thin.  Nothing new there at all.  He has always looked like a walking green bean on stilts.  Yeah pneumonia can exhaust you terribly but that is through coughing your lungs out endlessly; not from not eating.

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He does always look thin but this is a bit more extreme. He’s eating ribs I hear...

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4 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Sale is basically over the bout of pneumonia. It can be relatively mild, which appears to be the case for Sale. He's just a couple weeks behind. I would be more concerned if his arm was barking. 

 

Yeah agree. This doesn't change his value too much in my opinion.  If you were already out, your obviously still out, but if you were in, the big question is how long to wait, as this will for sure impact his ADP.  He was going 32 on average across the board.  I bet you can get him a couple rounds later, unless you are in a league with autopickers.  

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I'm still in on Sale, however what worries me most is that the season is still a month away yet they are already saying he's going on the IL.

Why not just wait a few more weeks to see how he turns it all around?

Seems a bit fishy, but I guess we have to trust the professionals. 

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4 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I'm still in on Sale, however what worries me most is that the season is still a month away yet they are already saying he's going on the IL.

Why not just wait a few more weeks to see how he turns it all around?

Seems a bit fishy, but I guess we have to trust the professionals. 

I look at the concern of his health.. I look at the fishiness of this story.. and then I look at the pitching that goes around his ADP. I just can't see myself paying the same price as a Bieber/Flaherty/Snell/Clevinger with how much uncertainty there is surrounding Sale. Just smells of bad investment. (This coming from a Sox fan.)

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18 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

I'm still in on Sale, however what worries me most is that the season is still a month away yet they are already saying he's going on the IL.

Why not just wait a few more weeks to see how he turns it all around?

Seems a bit fishy, but I guess we have to trust the professionals. 

I can’t see why anybody is still in Sale’s corner. 

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He will obviously fall in drafts. How far is iffy.  I would still take Sale close to pick 100 but doubt he falls that far unless worse news arise. I do tiers and am putting him in a special tier with Klubler right above the Yu Darvish tier.

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His current ADP on fantasy pros is 32 so I don’t see any way that he drops to anywhere near 100 unless news comes out that there’s something wrong with him physically outside of the pneumonia.
The difficult thing about trying to figure out the risk versus reward of Sale and the other starting pitchers going around his ADP is that he has the proven track record of being a legit top 3 SP whereas the others don’t. They certainly have the ability to be that but the sample size is smaller. They may not have the injury risk that Sale is labeled with but I also don’t think they have the upside that he does, at least not yet. 

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19 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

 

 

My goodness... at least this news is coming out now and not closer to when the season starts.

 

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I really though since he had a similar physique as Randy Johnson that during his career he would remain relatively injury free like The Big Unit.

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