BradMaddox

Chris Sale 2020 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Chris Sale possibly out for the season...Severino out for the season...Judge and Stanton already banged up...it's beginning to feel like Tampa is going to run away with the AL East.

Settle down cowboy lol the Yankees are built to withstand injuries!

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1 minute ago, 6Kill said:

Settle down cowboy lol the Yankees are built to withstand injuries!

 

Time will tell...I really like that Rays team though. Deep and great pitching. It would be a fun team to manage. 

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8 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Chris Sale possibly out for the season...Severino out for the season...Judge and Stanton already banged up...it's beginning to feel like Tampa is going to run away with the AL East.

 

Image result for say less.gif

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21 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

To be fair people have been saying that since he came up to the bigs. I dont think the delivery was really an issue. 

True that.  There have been countless Tommy Johns since Sale came up to the majors with his unique delivery.  And all of them never involved a letter of the alphabet in their arm delivery.  So now it has nothing to do with that anymore than any other pitcher having TJ.  It just seems the norm these days no batter how you throw a baseball.  Too much emphasis on velocity in the game has lead to this mess we are in with modern day pitchers I believe.  Catch-22.  Don't have as much velocity as the current max levels you probably don't play pro ball.  If you have enough velocity to satisfy the powers that be you are busy wrecking your arm.

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6 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

This is good news I think?

 

Purgatory

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14 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

True that.  There have been countless Tommy Johns since Sale came up to the majors with his unique delivery.  And all of them never involved a letter of the alphabet in their arm delivery.  So now it has nothing to do with that anymore than any other pitcher having TJ.  It just seems the norm these days no batter how you throw a baseball.  Too much emphasis on velocity in the game has lead to this mess we are in with modern day pitchers I believe.  Catch-22.  Don't have as much velocity as the current max levels you probably don't play pro ball.  If you have enough velocity to satisfy the powers that be you are busy wrecking your arm.

Have you read Bob Fellers little blue book of baseball? He talks about the difference in arm injuries today (relatively speaking) and during his days of playing. He touches upon that players today are too focused on muscle to throw harder.

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On 3/4/2020 at 11:12 AM, Big League Choo said:

It appears they are seeking a 3rd opinion on the elbow, which almost undoubtedly means TJ unfortunately for Chris and owners alike

 

So much for this take of mine lol

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3 minutes ago, Big League Choo said:

 

So much for this take of mine lol


Nah, I mean how many times have seen the flexor strain turn into TJ once he gets back on the mound. Seems like it's almost par for the course. Either that or that or they don't get it and turn into albatross for a couple seasons. And at Sale's age, regression is/was coming regardless. I wouldn't touch him in a redraft league outside of a late round flyer at this point. 

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3 hours ago, tucker26 said:


Nah, I mean how many times have seen the flexor strain turn into TJ once he gets back on the mound. Seems like it's almost par for the course. Either that or that or they don't get it and turn into albatross for a couple seasons. And at Sale's age, regression is/was coming regardless. I wouldn't touch him in a redraft league outside of a late round flyer at this point. 

Hes no longer a rd.1 pick.  Probably not even an sp2 I'd be comfortable with.  But given the steep amd sudden drop ar sp, I'd be thrilled to get sale at what's looking to be a serious discount.

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How could anyone have any degree of comfortable-ness taking this guy, barring a drop so low he can't hurt your team (unlikely)? Time to move on.

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Those who held him in keeper leagues whose keeper deadlines have already past are specifically not feeling great.  I'd think a 12 team league would have to go at least 8-10 keepers deep (and have a good number of IL slots) to consider holding onto him pre-draft.  

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This flexor strain good news gives Sales owners a chance to trade him before his next doctor opinion. My hunch is he does not start but may relieve if he avoids surgery.

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4 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

This flexor strain good news gives Sales owners a chance to trade him before his next doctor opinion. My hunch is he does not start but may relieve if he avoids surgery.

There’s no way he’s used as a reliever.

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5 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

This flexor strain good news gives Sales owners a chance to trade him before his next doctor opinion. My hunch is he does not start but may relieve if he avoids surgery.

Maybe for pennies on the dollar. No one in their right mind knowing the news will pay anything close to his value.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

Hes no longer a rd.1 pick.  Probably not even an sp2 I'd be comfortable with.  But given the steep amd sudden drop ar sp, I'd be thrilled to get sale at what's looking to be a serious discount.

This type of discounting makes sense for someone like Stanton. Feels like the odds are he's going down. And even if he doesn't, something isn't right and he's coming off of pneumonia...Hard pass at this point when it seems you are likely getting a zero from for at least couple months if he doesn't ultimately need TJ surgery. May would best case...Seeing as he's 62 pounds and half his playing weight doesn't seem like you could only count on him realistically until June. And then you don't even know what version of him you will get. In leagues with 1-2 IL slots, that's likely gonna hurt too. Easy pass until better news comes along. It's not like the gamble could make your season more than it could break it...

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I'm not disagreeing with anyone on here.  And I don't think anyone will be stoked to own sale this year.  But as of now, 3 doctors have looked at the MRI results and concluded that surgery wasnt needed. They even got a third opinion to be super sure.  A year ago,deGrom had a "barking elbow."     There was a lot of "hes done for" talk.  Not saying anyone should target him.  Just throwing my 2 cents in that I wouldn't sell him for pennies on the dollar, and that I would buy him for pennies on the dollar if given the chance.  DL spots pending of course. 

 

....besides, he plays for a Boston team.  Only the best case scenario happens to anyone involved with one of their teams.😜

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13 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I'm not disagreeing with anyone on here.  And I don't think anyone will be stoked to own sale this year.  But as of now, 3 doctors have looked at the MRI results and concluded that surgery wasnt needed. They even got a third opinion to be super sure.  A year ago,deGrom had a "barking elbow."     There was a lot of "hes done for" talk.  Not saying anyone should target him.  Just throwing my 2 cents in that I wouldn't sell him for pennies on the dollar, and that I would buy him for pennies on the dollar if given the chance.  DL spots pending of course. 

 

....besides, he plays for a Boston team.  Only the best case scenario happens to anyone involved with one of their teams.😜

The Sale situation is completely different than the deGrom barking elbow situation from last year. Sale started having problems with the elbow in August, was shut down, had PRP injections, and consulted Dr Andrews. It’s now March so he’s had several months to rest it to let it heal and it’s still a problem. He’s going to try again in a few weeks and if it’s still a problem surgery and missing the entire year is not only possible but likely. In the best case scenario he’s probably still out until mid to late May. Even in that scenario he’s probably going to spend the first 4-5 starts throwing at a submaximal effort which likely means a less effective Sale and results like we saw in April of last year.

If I’m drafting today (I actually have one tomorrow) there’s no way I’d spend a top 150 pick on him. I might actually be tempted to take a shot on him by around pick 200, but I know I won’t have to worry about it because I’m sure there will be someone else burning a top 100 pick on him. The draft pick to acquire Sale obviously has a cost to it but also holding that spot with Sale on your bench has a cost to it (unless you have a DL slot like you mentioned).

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35 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I'm not disagreeing with anyone on here.  And I don't think anyone will be stoked to own sale this year.  But as of now, 3 doctors have looked at the MRI results and concluded that surgery wasnt needed. They even got a third opinion to be super sure.  A year ago,deGrom had a "barking elbow."     There was a lot of "hes done for" talk.  Not saying anyone should target him.  Just throwing my 2 cents in that I wouldn't sell him for pennies on the dollar, and that I would buy him for pennies on the dollar if given the chance.  DL spots pending of course. 

 

....besides, he plays for a Boston team.  Only the best case scenario happens to anyone involved with one of their teams.😜

Of course you wouldn’t and of course you would. Therein lies the rub if all managers were as like-minded as you.🤓

Those who have already declared keepers are stuck with him, hoping for the best. Those who haven’t are probably hemming and hawing whether to keep (depending on the cost) him or not. It’s unfortunate and I’m glad I don’t have him!

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10 minutes ago, meh2 said:

The Sale situation is completely different than the deGrom barking elbow situation from last year. Sale started having problems with the elbow in August, was shut down, had PRP injections, and consulted Dr Andrews. It’s now March so he’s had several months to rest it to let it heal and it’s still a problem. He’s going to try again in a few weeks and if it’s still a problem surgery and missing the entire year is not only possible but likely. In the best case scenario he’s probably still out until mid to late May. Even in that scenario he’s probably going to spend the first 4-5 starts throwing at a submaximal effort which likely means a less effective Sale and results like we saw in April of last year.

If I’m drafting today (I actually have one tomorrow) there’s no way I’d spend a top 150 pick on him. I might actually be tempted to take a shot on him by around pick 200, but I know I won’t have to worry about it because I’m sure there will be someone else burning a top 100 pick on him. The draft pick to acquire Sale obviously has a cost to it but also holding that spot with Sale on your bench has a cost to it (unless you have a DL slot like you mentioned).

Excellent points.  You swayed me a bit. I was thinking 170ish or so myself.  I'd rather have the potential of 65% of a sale season than some innings eater Jake Arrieta type.  Another thing to consider though is that you arent exactly getting a 0 while hes on the DL.  You can experiment with another starter and maybe mine a gem.  If he miraculously overcomes this (remember to add in the Boston factor) and you have him as a later round in any type of keeper...He might have a crazy keeper value next year.  

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Or you could miss out on a high-upside diamond in the rough (speaking just of re-draft here) by drafting him instead of any number of other SP or hitter options at that draft point.

Honestly, at what point would you even feel comfortable inserting him into your starting lineup?  After 3-4 consecutive good starts?  So we are talking somewhere around mid-June in an ideal scenario?  Take a look at that division - it’s filled with bandboxes and offenses that are either dominant (Yanks) or sharply on the upswing (Rays, Jays).  The Sox don’t even figure to be in contention this season - so there is no incentive to push him.  They are going to coddle the heck out of him even if they do let him play.

Just don’t make it your headache.

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