BradMaddox

Chris Sale 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, tucker26 said:


No you didn't :) First and foremost I am no Red Sox apologist but not every elbow injury is the same. Sox and Sale were/are privy to likely 2-3 medical opinions and try to take to correct course. As a fan/owner/outsider looking in, I agree with you, that to us it appears like we knew where this was likely to end in TJS. Which can validate ourselves falsely because if 2-3 experts agree on a course of treatment that is different than ours, it doesn't make us smarter than those experts just because the result we expected initially eventually came to fruition. It's seems like the worst type of elbow injury. One that can get better by rest and rehab or get worse. Where the recommendation then turns to TJS after resuming play and learning the elbow didn't heal or got worse...

 

Fair enough.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Dr. Fauci says "several weeks". I don't know about you, but "several weeks" to me does not mean "several months".

Not trying to say I know what will happen or that I'm confident baseball starts in May, but if you're going to mention Dr. Fauci as your evidence that baseball won't start in May, at least accurately disclose what all he said. If going by "several weeks", the guess of May probably makes more sense than August, no?


Well, I didn’t say baseball would be back in August. I said there’s discussion in our state of kids not going back to school until August...in other words canceling the remainder if the school year, which would last until mid-May. 

Several weeks until we get on the backside of the curve also doesn’t mean we’ll be playing baseball in May. Don’t make it sound like I mischaracterized what Fauci said. He flat out said this will get worse before it gets better and that we’re just on the front end of this. He’s also said we can’t have a specific timeline at this point, and several weeks could be a wide range of possibilities. I don’t find May to be a realistic time to get back to baseball. And frankly, we have no idea what is realistic at this point. 

Edited by Flyman75

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jonninho said:

and why is that? Everyone has their view points and i would love to understand what about it is ignorant?

Because it's not as simple as "having teams play behind closed doors" because of the "low contact rate among the players". Once one player gets it the entire team has to be quarantined. And once one team is quarantined, that puts the entire schedule into jeopardy as games have to be postponed, other teams likely have to be quarantined, etc. That's not to mention the constant travel of teams and their staff through high risk areas like airports, given how long and arduous an MLB season is. That's also not to mention the countless other people that are involved with games besides just the teams, including the grounds crew, security, play-by-play staff, camera people, etc. 

I can literally go for days arguing against baseball starting in a few days. The right solution is to wait until there's minimal (i.e. zero) risk of players and anyone involved with the MLB contracting COVID-19 before games start. 

And I'll just add for clarity, thinking the season will start in May is incredibly optimistic given that the virus is just starting to ramp up in the U.S. in Canada, and neither country is prepared in terms of medical infrastructure and manpower to combat it, in addition to experts predicting it peaking in 45 days time. Saying something like "MLB will start in May" just that shows that you're not as knowledgeable about the virus as you'd like to think..no offence.

Edited by Jyeatbvg
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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Well, I didn’t say baseball would be back in August. I said there’s discussion in our state of kids not going back to school until August...in other words canceling the remainder if the school year, which would last until mid-May. 

Several weeks until we get on the backside of the curve also doesn’t mean we’ll be playing baseball in May. Don’t make it sound like I mischaracterized what Fauci said. He flat out said this will get worse before it gets better and that we’re just on the front end of this. He’s also said we can’t have a specific timeline at this point, and several weeks could be a wide range of possibilities. I don’t find May to be a realistic time to get back to baseball. And frankly, we have no idea what is realistic at this point. 

 

The bolded part, You added that part of it.

I never said we'd be playing baseball in May, man. I also never said there is a specific timeline because I (like you or anyone else) just don't know. All I was doing was responding to your "I don't think we'll be playing in May" while using parts of what Dr. Fauci said as evidence to back up your claim while leaving out the fact that he said it will be "several weeks." Couldn't someone also say "I think we will be playing in May because Dr. Fauci said "several weeks"?

Point is, no one knows. Let's just cross our fingers and people will be ok so that we can move forward with life.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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4 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Because it's not as simple as "having teams play behind closed doors" because of the "low contact rate among the players". Once one player gets it the entire team has to be quarantined. And once one team is quarantined, that puts the entire schedule into jeopardy as games have to be postponed, other teams likely have to be quarantined, etc. That's not to mention the constant travel of teams and their staff through high risk areas like airports, given how long and arduous an MLB season is. That's also not to mention the countless other people that are involved with games besides just the teams, including the grounds crew, security, play-by-play staff, camera people, etc. 

I can literally go for days arguing against baseball starting in a few days. The right solution is to wait until there's minimal (i.e. zero) risk of players and anyone involved with the MLB contracting COVID-19 before games start. 

 

I agree with all of the logic here except there will likely not be 0 risk and minimal risk may not be until next year.  At some point people are just going to have to go back about their regular lives.

 

The entire point of social distancing / "national quarantine" isn't to get to 0 or minimal risk.  It is simply to flatten the curve so that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed with another week or two of good data we could see we are getting closer to that.  A lot of things will change over the next couple weeks.  Let's see how the efficient our drive thru testing sites are as well as how much this continues to spread.

 

Mark my words.  There will be a point in the future where the CDC is going to say hey great job on flattening the curve everything can go back to normal so that we can get on with our lives.  People will still get the virus and eventually most of the country will but it isn't projected to push our hospitals past their capacities.  Maybe they slowly start ramping this back up like hey gatherings of 250 people are okay now.  Now 500 are okay.  Let's bring back the sports leagues.  But we aren't going to keep a national quarantine until the virus is snuffed out that for sure will not happen.

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Just now, Rotocious said:

 

I agree with all of the logic here except there will likely not be 0 risk and minimal risk may not be until next year.  At some point people are just going to have to go back about their regular lives.

 

The entire point of social distancing / "national quarantine" isn't to get to 0 or minimal risk.  It is simply to flatten the curve so that the hospitals do not get overwhelmed with another week or two of good data we could see we are getting closer to that.  A lot of things will change over the next couple weeks.  Let's see how the efficient our drive thru testing sites are as well as how much this continues to spread.

 

Mark my words.  There will be a point in the future where the CDC is going to say hey great job on flattening the curve everything can go back to normal so that we can get on with our lives.  People will still get the virus and eventually most of the country will but it isn't projected to push our hospitals past their capacities.  Maybe they slowly start ramping this back up like hey gatherings of 250 people are okay now.  Now 500 are okay.  Let's bring back the sports leagues.  But we aren't going to keep a national quarantine until the virus is snuffed out that for sure will not happen.

Okay that's fair, I agree. Bottom line is - we very likely won't be seeing baseball for another few months.

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4 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Because it's not as simple as "having teams play behind closed doors" because of the "low contact rate among the players". Once one player gets it the entire team has to be quarantined. And once one team is quarantined, that puts the entire schedule into jeopardy as games have to be postponed, other teams likely have to be quarantined, etc. That's not to mention the constant travel of teams and their staff through high risk areas like airports, given how long and arduous an MLB season is. That's also not to mention the countless other people that are involved with games besides just the teams, including the grounds crew, security, play-by-play staff, camera people, etc. 

I can literally go for days arguing against baseball starting in a few days. The right solution is to wait until there's minimal (i.e. zero) risk of players and anyone involved with the MLB contracting COVID-19 before games start. 

And I'll just add for clarity, thinking the season will start in May is incredibly optimistic given that the virus is just starting to ramp up in the U.S. in Canada, and neither country is prepared in terms of medical infrastructure and manpower to combat it, in addition to experts predicting it peaking in 45 days time. Saying something like "MLB will start in May" just that shows that you're not as knowledgeable about the virus as you'd like to think..no offence.


To keep this relevant to Sale...

So you are saying the start of baseball of might resume when Sale is ready to go again (18 month rehab/!8 month length of pandemic suggested)...LOL. I think at best, we are looking a half season. If it goes beyond that I think they just cancel the season. I think things have to actually get better first before any solid timing can get p[laced on it. Just too much uncertainty/risk. 

Here is a decent timeline article. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html 

Basically 3 months for China to have 2 days of no new domestic cases reported and still worry about a second wave returning. I don't see the likelihood of major sports rushing in after 2 days of US reporting the same without a major vaccine breakthrough. So 3 months from now is what, mid/late-june at best? Then count 2-3 weeks of spring training games...So mid-July on a aggressive or optimist level? As much as I want it to happen, it seems more likely or not to me there is no baseball this season :( 

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11 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Okay that's fair, I agree. Bottom line is - we very likely won't be seeing baseball for another few months.

 

I'm going to stay hopeful for Memorial Day... But that's probably based a lot more off of what I want as a baseball fan than logic.

 

Too bad Sale didn't just do the surgery first thing he'd be almost back by the time baseball resumes.

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52 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


So you think it’s going to take us two months to get back to playing baseball when China has dealt with this for ~6 months and just reported yesterday for the first time in months: no new cases. May is an extremely aggressive and enormously optimistic timeline to get back to baseball. Heck, my kids may not get back to school until August. I’m glad you have hope, but I don’t find it to be very realistic. Even Dr. Fauci has said this is going to get a lot worse before it starts getting better. 


Yes, that is what i think. Again, we have examples and lessons to learn from along with the entire world working on this together in this given moment. China did not. I honestly dont believe my estimation is that far fetched. We are not even in April, yet.

As for Dr.Fauci, he never stated it would take months. Just several weeks. By getting a lot worse before it gets better can be interpreted however you wish, the way i interpret it? The number of infections is going to sky rocket (because of the more readily available testing), and therefore in theory is naturally only going to get 'worse'

But yes, i stand my prediction that we will see baseball at some point in May. 

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23 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

The bolded part, You added that part of it.

I never said we'd be playing baseball in May, man. I also never said there is a specific timeline because I (like you or anyone else) just don't know. All I was doing was responding to your "I don't think we'll be playing in May" while using parts of what Dr. Fauci said as evidence to back up your claim while leaving out the fact that he said it will be "several weeks." Couldn't someone also say "I think we will be playing in May because Dr. Fauci said "several weeks"?

Point is, no one knows. Let's just cross our fingers and people will be ok so that we can move forward with life.


I haven't added anything. Are you suggesting Fauci has said it’ll be several weeks until we’re done with Covid in the US? If he said that, it would be very inconsistent with other things he’s said. Fauci is very alarmed by this and has stated that our government hasn’t moved quickly enough. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, jonninho said:


Yes, that is what i think. Again, we have examples and lessons to learn from along with the entire world working on this together in this given moment. China did not. I honestly dont believe my estimation is that far fetched. We are not even in April, yet.

As for Dr.Fauci, he never stated it would take months. Just several weeks. By getting a lot worse before it gets better can be interpreted however you wish, the way i interpret it? The number of infections is going to sky rocket (because of the more readily available testing), and therefore in theory is naturally only going to get 'worse'

But yes, i stand my prediction that we will see baseball at some point in May. 


I never said Fauci said it would take months. And what was the context of Fauci saying “several week”? And how do you enumerate “several weeks”?  

I stand by my disagreement with your prediction. 

If I’m wrong, I’ll be happy to admit it. I’ve been wrong many many times in the past, lol. I want baseball, but I’m also very cautious with all of this. 

Edited by Flyman75

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41 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Because it's not as simple as "having teams play behind closed doors" because of the "low contact rate among the players". Once one player gets it the entire team has to be quarantined. And once one team is quarantined, that puts the entire schedule into jeopardy as games have to be postponed, other teams likely have to be quarantined, etc. That's not to mention the constant travel of teams and their staff through high risk areas like airports, given how long and arduous an MLB season is. That's also not to mention the countless other people that are involved with games besides just the teams, including the grounds crew, security, play-by-play staff, camera people, etc. 

I can literally go for days arguing against baseball starting in a few days. The right solution is to wait until there's minimal (i.e. zero) risk of players and anyone involved with the MLB contracting COVID-19 before games start. 

And I'll just add for clarity, thinking the season will start in May is incredibly optimistic given that the virus is just starting to ramp up in the U.S. in Canada, and neither country is prepared in terms of medical infrastructure and manpower to combat it, in addition to experts predicting it peaking in 45 days time. Saying something like "MLB will start in May" just that shows that you're not as knowledgeable about the virus as you'd like to think..no offence.

It is as simple as playing behind closed doors. 

As i have stated (whether here or on another thread), before players get back to playing, they will certainly have to be tested and quarantined. That is not up for discussion. By doing this, it prevents a potential outbreak through out the MLB community. These players will have to ensure they remain together. In other words, no going out while in another city. Its baseball and baseball only, and considering we may be facing a shortened season, it may not be all that difficult to achieve.

Beyond that, i totally agree with you, that there are other people involved in the scenario, that being camera men, broadcasters and grounds crew. Security will be non-existent behind closed doors. In all honesty, while it may be hard to achieve, i dont see why its impossible to ensure these groups of people avoid contact with MLB players/coaches. Private flights. Team bus picking/dropping off at the foot of their plane (Celebrities/soccer teams do this all the time, why cant MLB players?)

Is May potentially optimistic? Sure. But again, i stand by it when considering the rapid movement N.America has all of a sudden decided to develop in flattening this curve. I also like to think the fact we have witnessed other countries go through this before our countries we can take lessons from it. I really do not believe it is that hard to consider the idea of baseball being played at some point in May.

For the record, i never pretended to be 'knowledgeable' about the virus. Even these 'experts' you speak of arent. I am simply looking at what has been happening around the world and using that as a guideline for when i believe we will see baseball again.

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


I never said Fauci said it would take months. And what was the context of Fauci saying “several week”? And how do you enumerate “several weeks”?  

I stand by my disagreement with your prediction. 

If I’m wrong, I’ll be happy to admit it. I’ve been wrong many many times in the past, lol. I want baseball, but I’m also very cautious with all of this. 

I get it. I mean, 'several weeks' can be viewed in different ways. I just think if 'several months' was the intended message, those words would have been used directly.

Please, dont get it twisted. In no way am i under estimating the severity of the situation. I just believe this is going to be taken care of faster than some anticipate.

Agree to disagree, man? Hopefully im right. We all want the game back.

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Posted (edited)

Further, the US attempting to flatten the curve, which creates a longer time of the same amount of cases. Not less cases. US is trying to lessen to onslaught of overcrowded hospitals at one time. Can't see how any of the news (outside of the hope for a fast vaccine) creates optimism for a 2020 MLB season.

Edited by tucker26
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29 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


I haven't added anything. Are you suggesting Fauci has said it’ll be several weeks until we’re done with Covid in the US? If he said that, it would be very inconsistent with other things he’s said. Fauci is very alarmed by this and has stated that our government hasn’t moved quickly enough. 

 

I think you're misinterpreting what I am saying. I am not saying I think baseball starts in May. I honestly don't really even have a guess. I was just pointing out that you questioned someone else's saying that while citing Dr Fauci as back up to your disagreeing. That made me scratch my head because as recently as today, he himself said the below with regards to how long people should stay home:

 

“If you look at the trajectory of the curves of outbreaks and other areas, at least going to be several weeks,” Fauci said in an interview with Savannah Guthrie on the “TODAY” show.

 

“I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now it's going to be over. I don't think there's a chance of that. I think it's going to be several weeks.”

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Either way though, enough about the Corona virus.

 

This thread is about Chris Sale. Sale and the Red Sox should not have thought that rest and rehab were the way to go. It never is and surgery always ends up being necessary, thus delaying the inevitable. If only they would have done this already instead of kick the can down the street, so to speak.

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How did this become yet another coronavirus thread?  We already have two threads on this forum alone for that plus one in the Minor League Forum.

Yeah Chris Sale should have had the surgery earlier like most pitchers should but they all seem to go through the traditional stages of grief except for them it is grief over their arm.  So the denial stage always seems to occur with all of them.  They grasp at straws like "rest" and such. 

Acceptance usually isn't instantaneous even though all of us know -- and usually correctly -- that they should get it done immediately.  So I guess we fans go through the "frustration cycle" with all these pitchers ever single time and I don't see it changing any time soon unfortunately.

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What a shocker.  And Boston fans were trying to tell me he'd be an ace this year.  They've really benefited from this shortened (possibly canceled) season.

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sale and severino should be roommates

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10 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

sale and severino should be roommates

They are, they're sharing a bunk on a couple of my teams. 

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On 3/21/2020 at 10:51 AM, mavsfan23 said:

They are, they're sharing a bunk on a couple of my teams. 

 

I've got Severino, Sale, and Thor sharing a 3 story bunk at one point; though I had traded Severino last year towards the end of last season at a bit of a discount price and this year I have got Stanton, Sale and Thor sharing. I am considering social distance them all....... 

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Red Sox join Mets medical staff in dithering.  Highlights from a Boston Globe article from 2 days ago:

Quote

The Red Sox’ handling of the Chris Sale elbow situation could hardly have turned out worse.

Boston’s ace lefty needs Tommy John surgery. It appeared to some of us that he needed surgery last summer when he was shut down with elbow pain. But the Red Sox and Dr. James Andrews waited — a decision that appeared to be based on hope more than reality after the Sox signed Sale to a whopping contract extension before the 2019 season.

When Sale again felt pain at the beginning of this month, the Sox waited again after Andrews and at least two other experts viewed Sale’s MRI.

Last week — after the world had changed — the Red Sox finally said it was time for Sale to have the procedure, which requires at least 14-15 months for recovery.

Now there might be a new reason to wait. Unless the surgery was done over the weekend (the Sox are not saying), they may need to wait because of the global medical crisis. This means Sale could wind up losing all of 2020 and 2021 — costing the Red Sox $60 million for zero return in the first two years of Sale’s new contract.

Did he have it already or not?  No one knows on this forum.

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@The Big Bat Theory -  I agree, I can't find anything on the Web, press release from the Red Sox, etc., that says he has actually undergone the procedure yet.  Anyone have anything on the actual surgery being performed?  Geez.  Get him fixed already!

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