Homerj24

Will Smith (C-LAD) 2020 Outlook

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Super streaky last season, but 35 bombs between AAA and LA. Can he propel himself into the upper tier at the position?

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10 minutes ago, Kramjam24 said:

Will he be the full time catcher?

 

No reason to think he wouldn't be. Austin Barnes isn't blocking him.

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I'm buying.

Games played by season:

2016  55

2017  73

2018   98

2019   116

It's not surprising to see the September collapse that he had. The Dodgers rode him hard in the month of August (24 games) and by September he was in unchartered territory and just wore down. I think 25 homers, 70 rbi's, and a .250 average is in play. With a few steals chipped in, I think that makes him a fringey top 5 catcher. 

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10 minutes ago, meh2 said:

It's not surprising to see the September collapse that he had. The Dodgers rode him hard in the month of August (24 games) and by September he was in unchartered territory and just wore down. I think 25 homers, 70 rbi's, and a .250 average is in play. With a few steals chipped in, I think that makes him a fringey top 5 catcher. 

 

Seems like a fair projection to me. His NFBC ADP is 150 which makes him the 6th catcher off the board. I don't see how he's much different from Willson Contreras who is #5, and going about 30 picks ahead of Smith.

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:27 PM, meh2 said:

I'm buying.

Games played by season:

2016  55

2017  73

2018   98

2019   116

It's not surprising to see the September collapse that he had. The Dodgers rode him hard in the month of August (24 games) and by September he was in unchartered territory and just wore down. I think 25 homers, 70 rbi's, and a .250 average is in play. With a few steals chipped in, I think that makes him a fringey top 5 catcher. 


Steamer, THE BAT and ATC have him hitting only .225/.230. They’re buying the power but none of the projection systems seem to think he can hit for AVG. 

Last season his AVG was .253 but his xBA was only .225. 

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On 2/11/2020 at 4:41 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

Seems like a fair projection to me. His NFBC ADP is 150 which makes him the 6th catcher off the board. I don't see how he's much different from Willson Contreras who is #5, and going about 30 picks ahead of Smith.

 

A projected .232 avg versus a projected .262 average is a pretty big difference. And Contreras has show he can be a .280+ hitter in his better seasons. That's a pretty significant difference to me and more than justifies that 30 pick difference. I'd much rather have Contreras and if I don't get him I'd rather just wait on someone like Vazquez or Ramos than draft Smith. 

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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

A projected .232 avg versus a projected .262 average is a pretty big difference. And Contreras has show he can be a .280+ hitter in his better seasons. That's a pretty significant difference to me and more than justifies that 30 pick difference. I'd much rather have Contreras and if I don't get him I'd rather just wait on someone like Vazquez or Ramos than draft Smith. 

 

In 2018 Contreras hit .249 with 10 HR. Essentially useless at catcher. I get the projections will like Contreras but that is an unfair comparison. Will Smith has a much higher ceiling IMO that isn't reflected in projections. They have similarly low floors.

I agree with waiting on catcher, but if you aren't into that Contreras doesn't make sense to me.

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19 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

In 2018 Contreras hit .249 with 10 HR. Essentially useless at catcher. I get the projections will like Contreras but that is an unfair comparison. Will Smith has a much higher ceiling IMO that isn't reflected in projections. They have similarly low floors.

I agree with waiting on catcher, but if you aren't into that Contreras doesn't make sense to me.

 

So we're going to ignore that fact that he hit .272 with 24 HRs last year? And that he essentially did the same thing in 2017? The 2018 season (that you're referencing) seems more like the outlier to me. Also disagree on their floors being similar. Smith's floor is Mike Zunino. 

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His projections and ADP are the main reason he won’t be on any of my teams. There’s a bunch of hitters going around that same 140/150 ADP that I prefer over him (C.Santana, Franmil, Dahl, Lux, C.Seager, J.Polanco, Gurriel Jr, Buxton, Sal Perez).

 

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2 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

So we're going to ignore that fact that he hit .272 with 24 HRs last year? And that he essentially did the same thing in 2017? The 2018 season (that you're referencing) seems more like the outlier to me. Also disagree on their floors being similar. Smith's floor is Mike Zunino. 

 

Not ignoring, I was comparing their floors. Will Smith's floor is pretty similar to Contreras, with less average and more power. Smiths ceiling is higher than Contreras, with monster power and decent average. Contreras is safer (that's why he's 30 ADP spots ahead), but I think that gap should be closer given what we know.

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34 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Not ignoring, I was comparing their floors. Will Smith's floor is pretty similar to Contreras, with less average and more power. Smiths ceiling is higher than Contreras, with monster power and decent average. Contreras is safer (that's why he's 30 ADP spots ahead), but I think that gap should be closer given what we know.

 

Fair points, I think I just value the potential for solid batting average a bit more from the catcher position because it's such a rarity. 

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3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Fair points, I think I just value the potential for solid batting average a bit more from the catcher position because it's such a rarity. 

THIS.

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4 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Fair points, I think I just value the potential for solid batting average a bit more from the catcher position because it's such a rarity. 

 

I agree its rare, average is just very random and hard to predict. Can we confidently say Contreras will hit .280? Can we confidently say he will hit above .250? I don't think we have confidence for either of those. His true range of outcomes is probably something like .240 - .290. I'm more comfortable paying for the certainty of power over the uncertainty of average.

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31 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I agree its rare, average is just very random and hard to predict. Can we confidently say Contreras will hit .280? Can we confidently say he will hit above .250? I don't think we have confidence for either of those. His true range of outcomes is probably something like .240 - .290. I'm more comfortable paying for the certainty of power over the uncertainty of average.

The avg deltas aren't nearly as significant as other positions given less ABs.  Throw in high walk rates and it means even less. Just food for thought since both guys walk about 10% of the time.

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Posted (edited)

Faltered abit after fast start, last 26 games were not great. From what I've read he's very talented and able to make adjustments to cut down on K's.

Any worries for those buying or already owning this season if he gets off to a slow start his playing time getting slightly reduced? He supposed to have good defensive metrics so maybe Dodgers will let him ride out any slumps.

I'm on fence for this season. First draft is this weekend interested to see how soon he's drafted.

 

 

 

Edited by MrBrett

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Posted (edited)

Agree. Catching value is all about counting stats. One of those positions with very few solid R/RBI contributors and getting that with HRs is worth BA risk. Going to be smaller part of your teams overall BA calculation.

Edited by Slatykamora

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