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Sidearmer

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2020 Outlook

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Quietly posted great numbers in limited ABs. It all came in June where he basically had half of his whole season's production in that one month. What are expectations for this year? Seems to be overshadowed a bit with the top prospects coming up but he can easily deliver 30 HR / 10 SB and no one would think twice. Roster Resource has him batting 3rd in a stacked Blue Jays top of lineup.

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The fact that he's not even going in the top 20 among SS right now is why I simply refuse to invest high picks in the position this year.  Some of the SS going ahead of him shouldn't be -- I'd certainly rather have him over Rosario, Andrus, Polanco, Edman, Lux, Santana, among others -- but if I for some reason didn't get him and got one of those guys, I'd be fine with it.

Nothing he did last year seems unsustainable, and he seems like a guy who could handle a reversion to a less homer-prone baseball pretty well since he helps you in AVG and should be in a decent position for counting stats.

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19 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The fact that he's not even going in the top 20 among SS right now is why I simply refuse to invest high picks in the position this year.  Some of the SS going ahead of him shouldn't be -- I'd certainly rather have him over Rosario, Andrus, Polanco, Edman, Lux, Santana, among others -- but if I for some reason didn't get him and got one of those guys, I'd be fine with it.

Nothing he did last year seems unsustainable, and he seems like a guy who could handle a reversion to a less homer-prone baseball pretty well since he helps you in AVG and should be in a decent position for counting stats.

 

I agree with the last part, but I don't think he will be SS eligible in any leagues this year. He may actually only be OF eligible in some leagues. Below are his games played.

image.png.1e7b28e506dd46c0f165632d9044b88f.png

Should keep in mind that he can fill in basically anywhere on the diamond, so if Biggio or Bichette got hurt he'd probably slot in there and regain eligibility. Same for Travis Shaw at 1B, and maybe even Vlad at 3B.

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Oops.  Was going off of FantasyPros' ADP page, which apparently hasn't been updated with 2020 eligibility yet.

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Small Sample Size
Every year some of these pop up.
Did not work out real well last year for Luke Voit enthusiasts either, as he was the best in like every advanced metrics people could come up with, yet a huge disappointment.
Might be a steal might be a bust, especially with only OF elig in leagues, and it is a pipedream to think that he will get all sorts of elig. Banking on that is a huge mistake. Chances are that he won't.
Lord Gurriel is ranked where he is for a good reason.

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46 minutes ago, JCD said:

Small Sample Size
Every year some of these pop up.
Did not work out real well last year for Luke Voit enthusiasts either, as he was the best in like every advanced metrics people could come up with, yet a huge disappointment.
Might be a steal might be a bust, especially with only OF elig in leagues, and it is a pipedream to think that he will get all sorts of elig. Banking on that is a huge mistake. Chances are that he won't.
Lord Gurriel is ranked where he is for a good reason.

1.) Voit was doing just fine until he got hurt. 

2.) .279 BA with 31 HRs in 606 PAs is NOT a small sample.

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7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

1.) Voit was doing just fine until he got hurt. 

2.) .279 BA with 31 HRs in 606 PAs is NOT a small sample.

 

1. Voit on pace for whole season is 93 Runs 80 RBIs 27 HR .263 avg
Hardly the savior and next messiah as the steal of the draft.

2. If you count 2018 it is not.
But 82 Runs 85 RBIs 31 HRs is not what people think as steal of the draft.
Theres that. Clearly people think something else.
If extrapolate Voit and everyone else to full season, with those numbers Voit was not even top 200.
Lord Gurriel's numbers in those 606 PA (1 full season) is about the same.
But people only see last seasons SSS, extrapolate, drink cool aid, think he is the steal of the draft, and end up with another Voit.

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18 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

1. Voit on pace for whole season is 93 Runs 80 RBIs 27 HR .263 avg
Hardly the savior and next messiah as the steal of the draft.

2. If you count 2018 it is not.
But 82 Runs 85 RBIs 31 HRs is not what people think as steal of the draft.
Theres that. Clearly people think something else.
If extrapolate Voit and everyone else to full season, with those numbers Voit was not even top 200.
Lord Gurriel's numbers in those 606 PA (1 full season) is about the same.
But people only see last seasons SSS, extrapolate, drink cool aid, think he is the steal of the draft, and end up with another Voit.

You are making too much of peoples hyperbole. Who here is projecting more then .275-.280/30? Also the Blue Jays LU has a lot more surrounding talent this year. So higher R/RBI numbers are not un-realistic.

Voit got hurt and came back and played poorly. That was not his season projection before the injury.

 

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1 hour ago, JCD said:

Hardly the savior and next messiah as the steal of the draft.

 

The statement was "could be the steal of the draft".  The chances that any one player will be the steal of the draft are vanishingly small, so it's kind of a weird flex to be coming in with this charged language that implies people are saying things they aren't.

His ADP is 162, so the investment is pretty minimal considering the possibilities in that lineup position with a lot of talent around him.  His big brother said from the jump that Lourdes was the better player, and right now, Yuli is going 2-3 rounds earlier.  Even if he doesn't duplicate what he did last season, there's value here, and in an increasingly competitive market where the hype cycle can erase sleeper potential pretty quickly, seeing this kind of value in the 13th-14th round is pretty rare.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The statement was "could be the steal of the draft".  The chances that any one player will be the steal of the draft are vanishingly small, so it's kind of a weird flex to be coming in with this charged language that implies people are saying things they aren't.

His ADP is 162, so the investment is pretty minimal considering the possibilities in that lineup position with a lot of talent around him.  His big brother said from the jump that Lourdes was the better player, and right now, Yuli is going 2-3 rounds earlier.  Even if he doesn't duplicate what he did last season, there's value here, and in an increasingly competitive market where the hype cycle can erase sleeper potential pretty quickly, seeing this kind of value in the 13th-14th round is pretty rare.

 

Psychology says people only see the words "steal of the draft".
"could be the steal of the draft" statement is completely unnecessary, since every player "could be the steal of the draft" if things happen. Like JD Martinez for example.

13th-14th round is full of closers good SPs like R.Ray-Marquez-M.Minor-Price-Manaea or bats like Sano-Buxton-Aquino-J.Turner-Edman-K.Davis-D.Santana etc...
Hardy any kind of steal of the draft with leaving those players on board, as any of these players could be the steal of the draft.

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56 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You are making too much of peoples hyperbole. Who here is projecting more then .275-.280/30? Also the Blue Jays LU has a lot more surrounding talent this year. So higher R/RBI numbers are not un-realistic.

Voit got hurt and came back and played poorly. That was not his season projection before the injury.

 

If hyperbole, maybe then you should explain how people think he is the steal of the draft with your 606 PA proof.
Much better lineup? Really? Well maybe. Or maybe not. But there is no proof, so that statement is wrong.
Shaw is hardly better than Smoak, Bichette was way better then his Minors suggest, so regression is more possible. What more talent?

Yeah, was not. But nearly the same. So you try to prove what? That 93 Runs 80 RBIs 27 HRs is much worse than the 92 Runs 83 RBIs 29 HRs if only extrapolate before injury numbers?

Edited by JCD

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Consider me both a Lourdes Gurriel Jr and a Luke Voit enthusiast. I do not expect either to be the savior or messiah for my teams. I think they’re both good values for where they’re going and they both possess a good amount of upside. 

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Voit was a great value for teams that drafted him. Anyone that drafted him near his ADP was very happy and profitted from that pick. If Gurriel can do the same all of his drafters will be similarly happy. Its a weird comparison considering Voit is actually proving the Gurriel Jr. truthers' point.

There's obviously some risk but the reward is extremely high. The price is pretty cheap for where his potential is. The conservative Steamer has him at 27 HR and 8 SB this year. If he delivers near that he will beat his ADP handily. In leagues he has 2B eligibility, he is helped further. Hopefully he can regain it in other formats during the year. Won't help us as much but I actually see 1B as most likely with Travis Shaw probably sitting against most LHP.

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10 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Consider me both a Lourdes Gurriel Jr and a Luke Voit enthusiast. I do not expect either to be the savior or messiah for my teams. I think they’re both good values for where they’re going and they both possess a good amount of upside. 


Exactly.  Anybody making "Gurriel or bust" a part of their strategy probably has questionable draft methodologies, but I don't think anybody in here was making that argument.  He has a lot of upside based on the combination of ADP and past (small-ish sample size) performance.  If the sample size wasn't small, there's less of a chance we'd be debating this guy as a possible steal because he'd be ranked way higher.  Never drafting ANYBODY with a small sample size due to that fact alone is just as questionable a draft strategy IMO.   

Either way, guys drafted this late aren't gonna be the ones kill your season, nobody is hitting bullseyes on every draft pick that late.  Especially with 2b eligibility (which he already has on Yahoo, at least) he has a better chance of making your season than breaking it.  

Edited by OaksterDan
grammah
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I like Lourdes a lot this year. [...] I think he could be a real difference maker for a lot of fantasy owners this season.   

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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On 2/13/2020 at 7:08 AM, Slatykamora said:

1.) Voit was doing just fine until he got hurt. 

2.) .279 BA with 31 HRs in 606 PAs is NOT a small sample.

This

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On 2/13/2020 at 10:34 AM, Sidearmer said:

Voit was a great value for teams that drafted him. Anyone that drafted him near his ADP was very happy and profitted from that pick. If Gurriel can do the same all of his drafters will be similarly happy. Its a weird comparison considering Voit is actually proving the Gurriel Jr. truthers' point.

 

No. Voit's ADP was round 13-14 in a 12 team league.
His healthy production extrapolated with everyone else healthy production extrapolated to full season, wasn't even top 200.
There was zero profit, only net loss.
If you do not extrapolate, he was outside of 300.
And then there is his horrible september, that dragged down all teams in the playoffs, but he was a hard drop, as the undoubted 1b or DH of the Yankees.
These people who think Voit was a good pick, are in the Matrix. They belong in the church.
 

On 2/13/2020 at 10:34 AM, Sidearmer said:

There's obviously some risk but the reward is extremely high. The price is pretty cheap for where his potential is. The conservative Steamer has him at 27 HR and 8 SB this year. If he delivers near that he will beat his ADP handily. In leagues he has 2B eligibility, he is helped further. Hopefully he can regain it in other formats during the year. Won't help us as much but I actually see 1B as most likely with Travis Shaw probably sitting against most LHP.

 

Extremely high? How so?
Is he going to turn into J.D. Martinez for some reason that no one mentioned yet? Is he going to hit 40-45 HR instead of the 27 projected?
And I don't think people draft him because he might gain 1b.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-779-outfield-preview-pt-2/
at 1:32:48
Clearly they do not think that Lord Gurriel is a 14-15 round player with extremely high upside.
He was picked 236! Yes, there is upside. At 160, not so much.
And they don't even think he hits that 27 HRs.
So what extreme upside at ADP 162?
He seems more like a bust candidate at 160, as much better, safer or higher upside options are available.

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
No need to take shots at other posters.
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7 hours ago, JCD said:

 

No. Voit's ADP was round 13-14 in a 12 team league.
His healthy production extrapolated with everyone else healthy production extrapolated to full season, wasn't even top 200.
There was zero profit, only net loss.
If you do not extrapolate, he was outside of 300.
And then there is his horrible september, that dragged down all teams in the playoffs, but he was a hard drop, as the undoubted 1b or DH of the Yankees.
These people who think Voit was a good pick, are in the Matrix. They belong in the church.
 

 

Extremely high? How so?
Is he going to turn into J.D. Martinez for some reason that no one mentioned yet? Is he going to hit 40-45 HR instead of the 27 projected?
And I don't think people draft him because he might gain 1b.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-779-outfield-preview-pt-2/
at 1:32:48
Clearly they do not think that Lord Gurriel is a 14-15 round player with extremely high upside.
He was picked 236! Yes, there is upside. At 160, not so much.
And they don't even think he hits that 27 HRs.
So what extreme upside at ADP 162?
He seems more like a bust candidate at 160, as much better, safer or higher upside options are available.

 

I don't know where you are getting your Voit rankings from. On Yahoo, he was ranked 180, and that includes the missed time and bad September. See screenshot below. If you drafted him in the 13-14th round, you profited when he was healthy. I also think his ADP was much lower than this anyway.

 

image.thumb.png.aaa338887c6bcaa13ac59580ebc73cfb.png

 

Gurriel has potential to hit 40 HR. He hit 20 in 300 AB last year. He plays every day. He adds in occasional stolen bases. He's in a loaded lineup. There is certainly elite breakout potential here.

 

And 1B is not deep this year, to think getting 1B eligibility adds no value is ridiculous. He also has a good chance to gain eligibility all across the diamond if / when any infielders get hurt. I'm not saying this makes him elite but people are overlooking this.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I don't know where you are getting your Voit rankings from. On Yahoo, he was ranked 180, and that includes the missed time and bad September. See screenshot below. If you drafted him in the 13-14th round, you profited when he was healthy. I also think his ADP was much lower than this anyway.

 

image.thumb.png.aaa338887c6bcaa13ac59580ebc73cfb.png

 

Gurriel has potential to hit 40 HR. He hit 20 in 300 AB last year. He plays every day. He adds in occasional stolen bases. He's in a loaded lineup. There is certainly elite breakout potential here.

 

And 1B is not deep this year, to think getting 1B eligibility adds no value is ridiculous. He also has a good chance to gain eligibility all across the diamond if / when any infielders get hurt. I'm not saying this makes him elite but people are overlooking this.

 

"to think getting 1B eligibility adds no value is ridiculous."
Nobody said that. You are imagining things.

 

Your mistake with Voit is that you looking at rankings with OBP instead of AVG. Huge difference.

 

voit.jpg

Edited by JCD

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

Gurriel ... hit 20 in 300 AB last year

 

No he did not. It was 316 AB.
 

1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 He plays every day.


He played 84 Games in 91 Team games to be accurate.
 

1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

He's in a loaded lineup.


TBD.
 

1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

There is certainly elite breakout potential here...
(Numbers)


If you say so.
But that math does not add up.
I tried to figure out  how could you get from his production to that 600 PA number but I could not. Neither could baseball-reference, despite they predict stats over 162 games (661 PAs)
That 40 HR 100 Run thing is ridiculous, but hey, anything can happen. Which reminds me, I have to check my lottery numbers from last week.

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Khris Davis' ADP is lower.  I would rather reach for him at Gouriel's ADP.

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Just hopping in here.  We know he had a rough April, and got sent down to AAA for a month+ to work out some things.  When he came back, he had a great few months of hitting.

I dug into the 2019 stats from late May to the end of the season, and sorted by ISO.  Lots of interesting names here, but I was surprised Gurriel was so high.

 

spacer.png

Edited by Hellgrammite
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His rough April was about the yips he had throwing to first when he was still playing 2B.  It translated into his head and then his bat as well.  They moved him to the outfield in the minors and he is fine now.  Biggio is the full time 2B now so Lourdes' yipping days are over.

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