Sign in to follow this  
charger_ss24

Ronald Acuna 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

39 minutes ago, cs3 said:

read this like a dozen times. what are you trying to say? 

trea turner has never stole 50 bags

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

2016 I think? Then it was Goldy over Trout. Then it was Mookie over Trout. Generally some combination of position scarcity and/or “this guy now runs more than Trout.”

Every. Single. Year. 

Think how great Trout would be if had not missed at least 22 games each of the last three years. (2017-48, 2018-22, 2019-28). 

This link  is from last Sept.  But it talks about how Trout can take better care of his body going forward. Which might mean he runs less:

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/09/16/after-3rd-straight-season-with-an-injury-angels-are-thinking-about-mike-trouts-long-term-health/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

 

Yeah. Since you mentioned that:

Angels manager Joe Maddon said Thursday that he hasn't ruled out deploying Trout (foot) as the club's leadoff hitter this season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. "It's in the playbook," Maddon said, though he noted that he yet to decide on lineup spots for any of his hitters at this point. (2/13/2020)

 

There was a near 130 point difference in Trouts Slug% over Acuna and 200 point difference in OPS. Trout likely got unlucky in terms of BA last year too. His Base running scores are still exceptional despite not stealing as often. Trout batting first makes it significantly more likely he steals then he would batting 3rd. Just like you said.

 

Maybe Trout will bat 1st sometimes. Maybe he will run a lot more when he bats 1st.

 

We already have those answers for Acuna.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trout's Full season SB pace in 2016-2018 were 30, 28, 27. That is provable. Before making any assumptions going to lead off.

He is highly likely to hit first this year and he was one pace for 51 HRs, 126 R, 119 RBI.(Take a few RBIs off, add a few more R if first) In a year where his BABIP was 50 points below his career mark and SB was way lower then the previous 3 seasons. 

Favoring Acuna if you believe Trout has trouble staying healthy? That is best argument for Acuna here. Otherwise I feel Acuna's 40/40 upside is just as likely as Trout 50/30. While Trout will probably give you better R/RBI and BA with that.

Any presumption of Acuna growth can be met with presumption of Trout positive regression in BA/SB.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair point. There’s really no wrong answer here. Either Acuña or Trout #1 are the perfect pick to start your team with. Both will be elite in nearly all 5 categories. What a fun time to be a baseball fan! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Trout's Full season SB pace in 2016-2018 were 30, 28, 27. That is provable. Before making any assumptions going to lead off.

He is highly likely to hit first this year and he was one pace for 51 HRs, 126 R, 119 RBI.(Take a few RBIs off, add a few more R if first) In a year where his BABIP was 50 points below his career mark and SB was way lower then the previous 3 seasons. 

Favoring Acuna if you believe Trout has trouble staying healthy? That is best argument for Acuna here. Otherwise I feel Acuna's 40/40 upside is just as likely as Trout 50/30. While Trout will probably give you better R/RBI and BA with that.

Any presumption of Acuna growth can be met with presumption of Trout positive regression in BA/SB.

 

You’re leaving out the relevant info that he only attempted 13 steals in 2019 compared to over double that on average in the previous three years. Could that be because he was injured twice stealing and ran less? Could it be because of his foot injury? We’ll find out.

 

Since you’re insistent on extrapolating full game paces..... here’s Acuna’s full season pace from the leadoff spot:

 

Age 22

46 HR

145 Runs

107 RBI

48 SB

 

 

I don’t have a problem with people preferring Trout but I also don’t see how anyone could have a problem with others chasing those stats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are all aware Trout stole way less SBs last year. Did I really need to say that? I said "positive regression in BA/SB" . Which should indicate his BA/SB were below his career trends? If you felt that mis-leading, sorry.

Prorating stats for games missed vs prorating games @ a specific LU position? Ok, Then we have a blank slate in terms of Trouts projected stat line now if that is how you want to approach this argument. Making this debate even more open ended.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

I’ll offer anyone here a side bet if they really think Trout going 50/30 is as likely to happen as Acuna going 40/40.

 

If I were a gambling man I'd bet on "neither." Seeing as how I have no money on it though, I hope they both prove me wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

 

If I were a gambling man I'd bet on "neither." Seeing as how I have no money on it though, I hope they both prove me wrong.


Likewise especially since I’ll own both this year in my keeper league. I’d say Acuña is a lock for 30/30 and Trout is a lock for 40/15. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

 

If I were a gambling man

 

This is funny in a fantasy sports forum.  We're all a bunch of gambling degenerates.  :)

Edited by kenag122002
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

We are all aware Trout stole way less SBs last year. Did I really need to say that? I said "positive regression in BA/SB" . Which should indicate his BA/SB were below his career trends? If you felt that mis-leading, sorry.

Prorating stats for games missed vs prorating games @ a specific LU position? Ok, Then we have a blank slate in terms of Trouts projected stat line now if that is how you want to approach this argument. Making this debate even more open ended.

 

 

 

 

It’s not just that he stole way less, it’s that he attempted way less. Maybe it was just variance and this attempts will revert back to the mean, or maybe there were other variables in play (injury history) making it less likely he attempts ~30 stolen bases. I wouldn’t fault anybody for baking that into the decision of taking Trout 1st vs 2nd.

 

Why wouldn’t we use Acuna’s lineup position to project his 2020 outlook/upside when have evidence of how different his production was?

 

 

I’m down to do that side bet for fun if you’d like. If Acuna reaches 40/40, I win. If Trout reaches 50/30, you win. If both or neither do we tie. I think 40/40 for Acuna is more likely than 50/30 for Trout. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

I’ll offer anyone here a side bet if they really think Trout going 50/30 is as likely to happen as Acuna going 40/40.

As in. You pay if both Trout/Acuna reach those marks...but I pay out if Acuna does and Trout does not? My stance is they have have equal chances. I was not favoring Trout over Acuna here in terms of pure HR/SB. 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

As in. You pay if both Trout/Acuna reach those marks...but I pay out if Acuna does and Trout does not? My stance is they have have equal chances. I was not favoring Trout over Acuna here in terms of pure HR/SB. 

 

 

If neither do or both do we tie. No one wins. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He looks like a modern-day Alfonso Soriano. Amazing tools but a 126 wRC+?  He's obviously still super young and has room to grow but last year the stars aligned for him. Acuna is no where near the hitter Trout is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

He looks like a modern-day Alfonso Soriano. Amazing tools but a 126 wRC+?  He's obviously still super young and has room to grow but last year the stars aligned for him. Acuna is no where near the hitter Trout is.

 

In fantasy you don’t to be near the hitter someone else is to have as much value as them. Stolen bases are scarce and Acuna said he wants to steal 50 bases this year. I’m not projecting 50 SB but it’s nice to hear he wants to run and will get a full season batting 1st to prove it. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, BostonCajun said:


Likewise especially since I’ll own both this year in my keeper league. I’d say Acuña is a lock for 30/30 and Trout is a lock for 40/15. 

Has trout ever gone 40/15?

Iunno if id call it a lock when he has yet to do it in his career, other than projections and "on pace to".

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where does he fall in a points league in your opinion? I have seen some mocks where he is consider #1 overall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/21/2020 at 10:31 AM, itslarry said:

Has trout ever gone 40/15?

Iunno if id call it a lock when he has yet to do it in his career, other than projections and "on pace to".

He went 41/11 and 39/24 before so 🤷‍♂️

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I got pick 1 I am going Trout No doubt. Think about looking at all of Trouts season long stat lines so far in his career. He has had 49 33 and 30 sb seasons He has had 45 41 and 39 hr seasons. He has had 100 and 111 rbi season and 129 115 and 123 runs scored season and he has had .312 .315 .323 and .326 BA seasons. The problem is he never had all 5 cats click all in the same yr. I want him on my team that Career yr season when he could go a line like .320 120 runs 45 hrs 120 rbis and 30 sbs. Its going to happen one yr and I want to be on it when it does. Acuna I think has peaked his ceiling cause he strikes out way to much  188 times in 2019 to do much more then last yrs stats. JMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in a 14 team points league.

I've had Trout the last two years. His productivity per at bat is phenomenal. But both years I've had him, he has missed a lot of games injured. 

And in the run to the playoffs and in the playoffs, Trout hasn't been there. So I've not been in the big money the last two years.

So he says this year Trout says he will be smarter with his body in 2020. So maybe he runs less and stays on the field. 

Acuna was the 3rd best in point totals and Trout was 11th because of missed games in 2019.

The injuries can't be predicted. But if Trout can get 600 AB, it is a no brainer. 

On the other hand Acuna is 22 and probably can improve on last year. So do we see a 40/40 out of him.

I think I would still go Trout in spite of the bad taste in my mouth from the last two years. 

But I can see why people would take Acuna over Trout.

 

image.png.4e5520c7bb044e41715aa79c11e17688.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

 If I got pick 1 I am going Trout No doubt. Think about looking at all of Trouts season long stat lines so far in his career. He has had 49 33 and 30 sb seasons He has had 45 41 and 39 hr seasons. He has had 100 and 111 rbi season and 129 115 and 123 runs scored season and he has had .312 .315 .323 and .326 BA seasons. The problem is he never had all 5 cats click all in the same yr. I want him on my team that Career yr season when he could go a line like .320 120 runs 45 hrs 120 rbis and 30 sbs. Its going to happen one yr and I want to be on it when it does. Acuna I think has peaked his ceiling cause he strikes out way to much  188 times in 2019 to do much more then last yrs stats. JMHO.

 

So many things wrong with this post.

A 22 year old has peaked?

You criticize Acuna because he struck out 188 times in 156 games as a 21 year old in 2019?

Mike Trout struck out 184 times in 157 games as a 22 year old... Would it have been fair back then to say Mike Trout had "peaked" back in 2014 as a 22 year old because he "struck out alot"? I mean, I guess it's impossible for a 21-22 year old to improve their game, right?

 

 

 

Edited by ThreadKiller
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I think Acuna can go 55/40 multiple years.

Edited by cdd10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this