Fuzzy_Slippers

Mike Trout 2020 Outlook

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Very excited to have Rendon hitting behind this guy.  Finally some legit insurance.  Obviously it doesn't matter as much for the talent this guy has, but definitely won't hurt.

Edited by ToO_BaD

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Here's to hoping that Adell dominates in spring and quickly cements himself as their RFer. Put another talented bat in front of Trout

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he has ruined my playoff opportunities two years in a row.  Love the guy, but when I need him, he is not there.

 

History of Injuries

In his 2017 campaign, he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a head-first slide to base. He went on to miss the next 39 games that season. Trout has since then worn a protective mitt on his left hand.

2018r, Trout was sliding feet first in an attempt to steal third base and jammed his right wrist when bracing himself. He missed two weeks of action from the injury and 19 games total on the year.

2019, Trout hasn’t played since September 7th and will undergo surgery to remove Morton’s neuroma. This is a very textbook procedure that will sideline him for the rest of the season.

 

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A lot of him being unavailable has been because his teams have ate a** so they benched their prized asset instead of letting him face Justin Dunn’s of world walking 13 per 9 and sailing balls over guys heads.  So while there is a little more risk of injury with him as he gets older I think you have to chalk up some of late season DNPs as being rested due to team being horrid.  Hopefully with Rendon, and some others on board this team should be more competitive.

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5 hours ago, rabaak said:

he has ruined my playoff opportunities two years in a row.  Love the guy, but when I need him, he is not there.

 

History of Injuries

In his 2017 campaign, he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a head-first slide to base. He went on to miss the next 39 games that season. Trout has since then worn a protective mitt on his left hand.

2018r, Trout was sliding feet first in an attempt to steal third base and jammed his right wrist when bracing himself. He missed two weeks of action from the injury and 19 games total on the year.

2019, Trout hasn’t played since September 7th and will undergo surgery to remove Morton’s neuroma. This is a very textbook procedure that will sideline him for the rest of the season.

 

Unless you think this means he's more likely to get injured while sliding,  near the end of the season... I'm not sure how this really matters.  Bad luck strikes us all

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1 hour ago, WahooManiac said:

Unless you think this means he's more likely to get injured while sliding,  near the end of the season... I'm not sure how this really matters.  Bad luck strikes us all

You are right that he might play all 162 this year.  I'm just saying he has missed a lot of games the last three years.  Factor that in this year as you want to. 

134 games last year of Trout was better than 162 games of Soler in my points league during the regular season.  So I may not have made the playoffs if Trout was not on my team in my last two years.  

A lot of players get labeled injury prone and Trout does not often get discussed in terms of time missed.

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2 fluky sliding injuries and a neuroma don't do much to make me nervous.  Nothing long term in there,  no back core or leg stuff.  And i agree that most of that time missed he would've been playing if they were a contending team.  

The world just wasn't ready for a full 162 from him last year,  baseball gods said it wasn't fair.  

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24 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

The world just wasn't ready for a full 162 from him last year,  baseball gods said it wasn't fair.  


The world wasn’t ready and he’s just being nice to everyone else in baseball as to not embarrass them.


His batting line for 162 last year and what he would have ranked in the league.

 

132runs(2nd)
55hr(1st)

125rbi(2nd)

13sb

.291avg

.438 obp(1st)

.645slg(2nd)

1.083slg(2nd)

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On 2/13/2020 at 1:42 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Go get 'em, Mikey.

 

giphy.gif

 

I would enjoy watching Mike Trout in the post season sometime soon.  Baseball fans and Angel fans deserve it.

 

 

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Angels' Mike Trout: Potential leadoff candidate

Quote

Angels manager Joe Maddon said Thursday that he hasn't ruled out deploying Trout (foot) as the club's leadoff hitter this season, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. "It's in the playbook," Maddon said, though he noted that he yet to decide on lineup spots for any of his hitters at this point.

 

Big if true.  More PAs, could entice him to steal more bags, and not a lot of difference between Simmons, Castro, Goodwin ahead of him vs. LaStella, Simmons, Castro, so the RBIs shouldn't be negatively affected.

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23 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Angels' Mike Trout: Potential leadoff candidate

 

Big if true.  More PAs, could entice him to steal more bags, and not a lot of difference between Simmons, Castro, Goodwin ahead of him vs. LaStella, Simmons, Castro, so the RBIs shouldn't be negatively affected.


would definitely be a hit to rbi as he’s missing out on the chance of runners on at least 25% of his at bats.

 

could also be a big gain in runs and stolen bases

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10 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

would definitely be a hit to rbi as he’s missing out on the chance of runners on at least 25% of his at bats.

 

He batted 2nd all season, so he either had zero or one hitters on base ahead of him in the 1st inning.  The difference is negligible, and far outweighed by the other advantages.

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Just to try to put some numbers on "negligible": Trout had 15 first inning RBIs last season, but 9 of them were homers where he drove himself in.  That leaves 6 RBIs from players who were ahead of him.  If that goes down to 3 (one less batter ahead of him in the 1st), then he needs to make up 3 RBIs in the ~14 extra PAs he gets going from 2 to 1 in the order.  He got 104 RBI in 600 PAs last season, or about one every 5.8 PAs, so we'd expect ~2.4 extra RBIs from the extra PAs he gets, leading to a difference of roughly one half of an RBI.

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8 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Just to try to put some numbers on "negligible": Trout had 15 first inning RBIs last season, but 9 of them were homers where he drove himself in.  That leaves 6 RBIs from players who were ahead of him.  If that goes down to 3 (one less batter ahead of him in the 1st), then he needs to make up 3 RBIs in the ~14 extra PAs he gets going from 2 to 1 in the order.  He got 104 RBI in 600 PAs last season, or about one every 5.8 PAs, so we'd expect ~2.4 extra RBIs from the extra PAs he gets, leading to a difference of roughly one half of an RBI.

 

Good analysis.  I think there's some merit to the discussion that it's not only the 1st inning that matters since, at least in theory, if he's in the 2 hole, the leadoff hitter likely has a higher OBP than the 9 hole hitter.  But that may also boil down to seemingly negligible.

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Uh, actually I goofed there with "one less batter ahead of him".  He'd have zero batters ahead of him, so he'd get no first inning RBIs except those he hits himself.  So maybe the effect could be as high as 3 RBI.  I'd expect much more than that in terms of value from extra runs, maybe an extra homer, and maybe an increased desire to steal.

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@tonycpsu you make a great point about the gain in runs, stolen bases, and HRs likely being greater than the loss in RBIs. I was already expecting more runs scored with Rendon added to the lineup but this raises the ceiling even higher. It would be nice to see his stolen bases exceed 20 again which is certainly plausible. He’s definitely still got the speed and perhaps Maddon wanting to move him to leadoff is indication he wants to utilize that more. 
 

Is it safe to say that with 150+ games played his floor is 115/40/100/10 and his ceiling is 130/50/115/20?

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If he's batting leadoff, there's no argument between him and Acuna, imho. You have to go into the season looking at Trout as the no1 player. 

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4 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

@tonycpsu you make a great point about the gain in runs, stolen bases, and HRs likely being greater than the loss in RBIs. I was already expecting more runs scored with Rendon added to the lineup but this raises the ceiling even higher. It would be nice to see his stolen bases exceed 20 again which is certainly plausible. He’s definitely still got the speed and perhaps Maddon wanting to move him to leadoff is indication he wants to utilize that more. 
 

Is it safe to say that with 150+ games played his floor is 115/40/100/10 and his ceiling is 130/50/115/20?

Unfortunately, he hasn't played that many games since 2016. He did make it to 140 in 2018. 

If he is going to follow the plan he talked about in being more careful with his body, I don't see him running much.

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Have a #1 pick in a redraft this year, finding it really hard to pass on Trout jut because Acuna's ADP is higher.  Still feel like Trout can have the most ridiculous year at any point and in 10 years from now you're looking back and thinking, why was Trout not #1? like so many years looking back on Bonds. Acuna and Yeliich are great and steals are pretty important, but like my counter argument is... Mike Trout.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Have a #1 pick in a redraft this year, finding it really hard to pass on Trout jut because Acuna's ADP is higher.  Still feel like Trout can have the most ridiculous year at any point and in 10 years from now you're looking back and thinking, why was Trout not #1? like so many years looking back on Bonds. Acuna and Yeliich are great and steals are pretty important, but like my counter argument is... Mike Trout.

 

I have the first pick too in a redraft and I didn't even hesitate to take Trout. Last year's injury was just bad luck, had surgery and it is all fixed now. I think some guys like Acuna because of the stolen base potential, but a fully healthy season from Trout with the rubber ball that Mlb is using, we are looking at a 50 homer season and better avg. and obp than Acuna's

Edited by Picard56

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