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Starling Marte 2020 Outlook

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He heads to Arizona where he begins the Martay Partay, baybay.

This HAS to be a fantasy BOON for him, I'd imagine a better park, definitely a better line up. IF healthy, he can go 20 HR and 30+ SB with 100+ runs.

Problem is? He seems to miss a good deal of time, get's hit by pitch in the double digits every year, and is just a rough player to own due to time missed.

 

He's going for $28 in Auctions and is in the Tier 2 of OFs with guys like JD Martinez, Harper, Judge, etc.

Are you targeting him? Avoiding? 

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That’s tough you have to think they’ll be a little uptick getting out of Mariners of NL.  Out of hell, a chance at life again.  You have to think he might have a fire under his a** to never go back.  

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He has declined in stolen bases 3 straight years. Regression isn't always linear, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't reach 20 SB this year. ADP is a little too pricey for me.

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He’s not Old Man River at 31, so I don’t expect some extreme drop in numbers. I think 22-25 SBs is a reasonable expectation. And if he leads off all season, then the potential for more is there. He set career highs last year in Runs, HR, and RBI, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him set another career high in runs if he leads off. Also wouldn’t surprise me to see him at least equal his HR output of last year, and you know you’re getting a solid BA floor. 

In a better lineup, I’m guessing a .285+ avg with 100+ runs, possibly 25 HR, and 25 SB (with potential for more). I like him this season. I’m not sure about his ADP because I only play in keeper leagues, so ADP doesn’t really matter to me. I just know if I have a chance to draft him, I won’t be worried about him this season. I think he’s going to have a very solid floor. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

He’s not Old Man River at 31, so I don’t expect some extreme drop in numbers. I think 22-25 SBs is a reasonable expectation. And if he leads off all season, then the potential for more is there. He set career highs last year in Runs, HR, and RBI, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him set another career high in runs if he leads off. Also wouldn’t surprise me to see him at least equal his HR output of last year, and you know you’re getting a solid BA floor. 

In a better lineup, I’m guessing a .285+ avg with 100+ runs, possibly 25 HR, and 25 SB (with potential for more). I like him this season. I’m not sure about his ADP because I only play in keeper leagues, so ADP doesn’t really matter to me. I just know if I have a chance to draft him, I won’t be worried about him this season. I think he’s going to have a very solid floor. 

Agree on all counts. In NFBC drafts, his ADP is around 30. I’ve seen him going later on Fantrax and was even able to get him at the start of the 4th in one draft so far. I’m a big proponent of loading up on combo hitters (HR+SB guys) early in the draft and then loading up on high upside arms in the middle and late rounds. Marte fits the bill perfectly at that price. My dream fantasy draft start would look something like Story in the 1st, JRam in the 2nd, Marte in the 3rd, and Baez or Albies in the 4th.

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Posted (edited)

Every Fantasy player needs to trust their own judgement and/or their own projections. Two weeks ago Todd Zola took Starling Marte at the end of the 1st round in a TGFBI league and he received a fair share of criticism for it. His argument was that according to his own projections, Marte was worth a 1st round pick so why wait until the 2nd to get him? This is a guy who has won Tout Wars, LABR and TGFBI so not a Fantasy idiot. So if someone believes that Olson will put up 3rd round production then go get him in that round. Fantasy would be boring if we all took the same players in the same rounds lol.

Edited by tonycpsu
Moved Marte derail from Olson thread
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6 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

Every Fantasy player needs to trust their own judgement and/or their own projections. Two weeks ago Todd Zola took Starling Marte at the end of the 1st round in a TGFBI league and he received a fair share of criticism for it. His argument was that according to his own projections, Marte was worth a 1st round pick so why wait until the 2nd to get him? This is a guy who has won Tout Wars, LABR and TGFBI so not a Fantasy idiot. So if someone believes that Olson will put up 3rd round production then go get him in that round. Fantasy would be boring if we all took the same players in the same rounds lol.

 

ADP should only be used in drafts to see who won't be available at your next pick. If for some reason you think the 150th ranked player is 50th best, it may not be smart to get him at pick 50 overall when the 51st ranked player is available and you rank him as your 51st best. Extreme example, but that's the point. Should be getting the best players available at an time. If you are high on a player, you probably will be going over ADP for him, and that's fine.

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41 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

Every Fantasy player needs to trust their own judgement and/or their own projections. Two weeks ago Todd Zola took Starling Marte at the end of the 1st round in a TGFBI league and he received a fair share of criticism for it. His argument was that according to his own projections, Marte was worth a 1st round pick so why wait until the 2nd to get him? This is a guy who has won Tout Wars, LABR and TGFBI so not a Fantasy idiot. So if someone believes that Olson will put up 3rd round production then go get him in that round. Fantasy would be boring if we all took the same players in the same rounds lol.

 

31 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

ADP should only be used in drafts to see who won't be available at your next pick. If for some reason you think the 150th ranked player is 50th best, it may not be smart to get him at pick 50 overall when the 51st ranked player is available and you rank him as your 51st best. Extreme example, but that's the point. Should be getting the best players available at an time. If you are high on a player, you probably will be going over ADP for him, and that's fine.

 

I get that, but the point I think you're leaving out is that if you continually reach for all your players you're missing out on other good players. Whereas if you don't over reach you can get a player you really like AND another good player. For example, lets say you firmly believe that Semien can repeat what he did last season. Then you draft another good player, instead of someone like Bogaerts in the early rounds, and draft Semien later. I think it's fine to reach for a player a round or so if you wan to make sure you get him, but if you continually draft players three rounds earlier then their ADP then you're basically going to have to be 100% right on all your predictions to make it work. That seems like a very risky draft strategy to me. 

And yes, I even question Zola taking Marte in the first round because even in an experts league I can't imagine he wouldn't have still been there when he picked in the second round, depending on the size of the league.  

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6 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I get that, but the point I think you're leaving out is that if you continually reach for all your players you're missing out on other good players.

 

I agree if you do this every pick you will be in trouble, but if there are a few players you are much higher on than the rest of the room you can pick your spots.

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53 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

Every Fantasy player needs to trust their own judgement and/or their own projections. Two weeks ago Todd Zola took Starling Marte at the end of the 1st round in a TGFBI league and he received a fair share of criticism for it. His argument was that according to his own projections, Marte was worth a 1st round pick so why wait until the 2nd to get him? This is a guy who has won Tout Wars, LABR and TGFBI so not a Fantasy idiot. So if someone believes that Olson will put up 3rd round production then go get him in that round. Fantasy would be boring if we all took the same players in the same rounds lol.

 

http://mastersball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5818:tgfbi-defending-starling-marte&catid=920:organized-chaos&Itemid=65

 

Here's him defending it and it had alot to do with roster construction. He had Freeman and JD as the top 2 players according to his projections and was almost certain one would be there for him at pick 18(turns out both were) but he was also certain he wanted Marte and his SB's after pick 18 so he locked it up at 13 to guarantee he left the 1st 2 rounds with some SB's, had he took best player available in round 1 and Marte got sniped his whole plan is now out the window.

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2 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

http://mastersball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5818:tgfbi-defending-starling-marte&catid=920:organized-chaos&Itemid=65

 

Here's him defending it and it had alot to do with roster construction. He had Freeman and JD as the top 2 players according to his projections and was almost certain one would be there for him at pick 18(turns out both were) but he was also certain he wanted Marte and his SB's after pick 18 so he locked it up at 13 to guarantee he left the 1st 2 rounds with some SB's, had he took best player available in round 1 and Marte got sniped his whole plan is now out the window.

 

I kind of get where he's coming from, but disagree with some of his logic. Like not looking for upside in early round picks. For example, I think the majority of us would draft Tatis, Jr. over Marte largely because of his youth and upside. Maybe he was drafted before Marte (I can't tell). And if this is a league that doesn't allow trades then I think it favors Zola's emphasis on sticking so stringently to his game plan. If not, then I think it's harder to justify. Personally, even if I go into a draft with a strict game plan I'm always ready to make adjustments, because it's impossible to predict how the others will draft. Like, what would he have done if Cody Bellinger had fallen to him at 13? 

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12 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I kind of get where he's coming from, but disagree with some of his logic. Like not looking for upside in early round picks. For example, I think the majority of us would draft Tatis, Jr. over Marte largely because of his youth and upside. Maybe he was drafted before Marte (I can't tell). And if this is a league that doesn't allow trades then I think it favors Zola's emphasis on sticking so stringently to his game plan. If not, then I think it's harder to justify. Personally, even if I go into a draft with a strict game plan I'm always ready to make adjustments, because it's impossible to predict how the others will draft. Like, what would he have done if Cody Bellinger had fallen to him at 13? 

 

He often doesn't go for youth and upside in the early rounds (rounds 1 to 5). He wants a safe floor from someone with a longer track record. It's a strategy that you see more Fantasy writers use. They disagree with the "you can't lose a draft in the early rounds" argument. They don't mind taking them in later rounds though.

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I typically hate aging power/speed guys. But he must have some good stuff flowing through his veins since his PED suspension. Must have gone higher quality because he's got back to back 20+ HR years and its not just the ball because at age 30 last year he had the lowest K rate of his career at 16%... The best hard hit rate of his career as well. I'm baffled. His SBs have consistently been 25+ and that average has never dipped below 275.

I swore he was toast after the PED bust but man... I'm all aboard on him in AVG leagues but likely not getting him in OBP unless there's a haircut on that price.

Although Arizona isn't great post-humidor, it is still a MASSIVE improvement to PNC in Pitt. The lineup is also probably the best he's ever been in, not that it's great but he was always in below average/poor lineups.

I mean if you can land both him and Ketel you got a Martay Martay Partay. What's better than that?

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Some very sad personal news:

Quote

Starling Marte has announced that his wife died unexpectedly on Monday.

Via Marte's personal Instagram page: "Today I go through the great pain of making public the unfortunate death of my wife Noelia, due to a heart attack. It is a moment of indescribable pain. On behalf of my family, I am grateful for the expressions of esteem and solidarity in this difficult time." Jon Heyman of MLB Network writes that Noelia "broke her ankle and was in the hospital and said to be awaiting surgery when she passed." The couple had three children together. Absolutely tragic news.

Source: Starling Marte on Instagram                     May 18, 2020, 8:37 PM ET

Condolences to him and his family.

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Very sad. Life is short. Appreciate those that you love. 

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sad about his wife.

also saw a debate on twitter about Bryce Harper and someone said they would take Starling Marte over Harper.

discuss.

I think I would have to take Marte, and we haven't seen the best from him yet since he's been buried in Pittsburgh. Harper to me has been overrated.

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18 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

sad about his wife.

also saw a debate on twitter about Bryce Harper and someone said they would take Starling Marte over Harper.

discuss.

I think I would have to take Marte, and we haven't seen the best from him yet since he's been buried in Pittsburgh. Harper to me has been overrated.

Take for what, 2020? Rest of career? Based on price? 

 

In a vacuum, Harper is definitely better than Marte...

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^ that being said, looking strictly at WAR, they aren't far off on a per year basis. Harper is about 4.5 WAR guy per season, Marte 3.5.

 

Of course, Harper does have the alluring 9+ WAR season (aka, an average trout year). Marte will probably never crack 5.

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On 5/21/2020 at 8:26 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

Take for what, 2020? Rest of career? Based on price? 

 

In a vacuum, Harper is definitely better than Marte...

 

for everything baseball.

I feel like I would be leaning Marte. Harper has more power, but Marte is a better hitter and brings more speed.

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25 minutes ago, stigmatadiacory said:

It feels wrong to say, but I wouldn't want anything to do with Marte for this season now.

It could go either way. Maybe he "dedicates his season" to his wife and has a career year. I've also thought about what affect her death might have on his season so that's why I'm opining - after a lot of thinking I don't think I'm moving him up or down in my ranks because of it.

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