Sign in to follow this  
Sine_cera

Mike Clevinger 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He will need to build up his arm...Assuming this week is when all pitchers start to build up to be ready for Opening Day, if you are delaying that by, lets say conservatively 4 weeks, then his start will be delayed by that same 4 weeks.

 

can't he be doing that before the 6 weeks is up? I was thinking this is 6 weeks before he would be back ready to play with Cleveland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

can't he be doing that before the 6 weeks is up? I was thinking this is 6 weeks before he would be back ready to play with Cleveland.

 

Well I think that's TBD. I'd be surprised if he's able to do much before at least 4 weeks. But its hard to tell, it could be 6 weeks before he can do any work. Maybe we will get some clarity over next few days / weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Well I think that's TBD. I'd be surprised if he's able to do much before at least 4 weeks. But its hard to tell, it could be 6 weeks before he can do any work. Maybe we will get some clarity over next few days / weeks.

 

the comparison I brought up earlier was Craig Kimbrel in 2016.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/07/09/craig-kimbrel-boston-red-sox-injury-knee-surgery-disabled-list

Quote

Jul 9, 2016

The Red Sox have placed closer Craig Kimbrel on the disabled list with a medial meniscus tear in his left knee, the team announced.

Kimbrel will have surgery and is expected to miss 3–6 weeks.

 

he returned to the Red Sox August 1st. he pitched that month to 0.82 ERA/0.98 WHIP with 19 K in 11 IP.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

the comparison I brought up earlier was Craig Kimbrel in 2016.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/07/09/craig-kimbrel-boston-red-sox-injury-knee-surgery-disabled-list

 

he returned to the Red Sox August 1st. he pitched that month to 0.82 ERA/0.98 WHIP with 19 K in 11 IP.

 

Easier to come back mid season when you are already built up. Also quicker as a reliever. Did he even have a rehab assignment?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

can't he be doing that before the 6 weeks is up? I was thinking this is 6 weeks before he would be back ready to play with Cleveland.

Franco said he’ll be able to keep his arm ready whatever that means

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this is anywhere near accurate I think it's reasonable to have some hope he'll be full strength by May. I'd draft (at a discount).

  • The Indians announced Friday that Mike Clevinger (knee) is expected to return in six-to-eight weeks.

    Clevinger underwent surgery on Friday to repair a partial tear of the medial meniscus in his left knee. Given that we're six weeks out from Opening Day as it is, it sounds like the right-hander should only miss the first couple of weeks of the regular season. Fantasy owners with stock in Clevinger can breathe a sigh of relief here, because it could have been much worse.

    Feb 14, 2020, 8:13 PM ET
     
  •  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he'll be back in the rotation by mid-April, still very excited for his 2020 season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

I think he'll be back in the rotation by mid-April, still very excited for his 2020 season

How excited though - he's injured again. IMO it doesn't matter if he can actually suit up in mid-April. He's going to be behind the curve substantially from a prep standpoint if/when he gets those April starts. 

I would not blindly take him as a SP1 or 2 even w/o more info - I'd be hoping he drops. This of course is as of Feb 16.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I think he'll be back in the rotation by mid-April, still very excited for his 2020 season

The amount of times I've thought this about injured guys at draft time (mid april return) and been wrong/mislead is staggering.  Any setback could add a month.  There better be a good discount for me if he's not firing 100% off a mound at draft time.  Still a lot of studs that dont have actual injury.concerns available at the end of rd.2.

Edited by Cesare13
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

How excited though - he's injured again. IMO it doesn't matter if he can actually suit up in mid-April. He's going to be behind the curve substantially from a prep standpoint if/when he gets those April starts. 

I would not blindly take him as a SP1 or 2 even w/o more info - I'd be hoping he drops. This of course is as of Feb 16.

We're still 5 weeks away from opening day. It may only take him 3-4 weeks to heal from the surgery 2-3 weeks to prepare. He might only miss a start or two, he's aiming for none! I don't think he will be as "behind the curve" as you think. He's been preparing all offseason (working out/stretching/lifting/throwing) and he's pretty much ready to go. The dude is a gamer and a super competitive mega-athlete.

I can see your point not taking him as your 1# because right now we don't know the true recovery time. I just think you're dropping him too far for this type of injury/recovery. I wouldn't take Severino/Darvish/etc over him. Clevinger can still easily be top 10 SP by the end of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is the type of write up I like, this from pitcher list.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/player-profiles-2020-cleveland-indians-starting-pitchers/

Quote

2019 In Review

Clevinger was undeniable in 2019, as he bumped his fastball up around 96 mph before eventually falling to his 2018 levels of velocity, around 94 mph. As a result, he saw his SwStr% bump up to 15.2% and his K rate up to 33.9%. His 30.7% xK rate was surpassed by his 33.8% K rate. People seem pessimistic about the sustainability of his 2.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 33.9% K rate, but I think he’s legitimately improved.

Fastball (46% usage)

The biggest change we saw from Clevinger was a drastically improved fastball. How improved was it? It put up a 19.3 pVAL against the -5.5 pVAL it had previously put up throughout his career. His swinging-strike percentage leaped to an elite 12.7% (from a career 8.0%), and his 34.5% CSW was also much higher than his career 28.0% CSW.

The velocity certainly helps, but his average vertical fastball location prior to this year was below the vertical middle of the zone. 2019 was the first year where he averaged above the vertical middle, and while he averaged in the 50th percentile in vertical fastball location — exactly average! — he had previously ranked in the 13th percentile from 2017 to 2018.

In other words, his average vertical fastball location was like that of Joe MusgroveSonny Gray, and Jon Lester. Nowadays, he’s more in the vicinity of Lucas GiolitoJames Paxton, and Walker Buehler.

So, to recap, he ranked in the 94th and 97th percentile in swinging-strike percentage and CSW, respectively, with his fastball.

Slider (26% usage)

Clevinger’s slider was already a good pitch, and it remained a good pitch. He’s gone back and forth between it being a pitch he throws inside the zone a lot or not, and 2019 was a year where he didn’t throw it in the zone as often. With his fastball as dominant as it was, it’s hard to argue with those changes. It saw a small decrease in pVAL/C, but pVAL isn’t predictive. Plus, his slider CSW increased from 38.3% to 39.3%, and this is despite the fact his zone percentage dropped from 49.3% to 34.5%.

With his velocity increase, his slider saw an increase in spin rate and velocity, and a little extra vertical drop too. Incredible stuff (quite literally).

Curveball (12% usage)

He started burying his curveball more, too, but this change didn’t reap the rewards that his slider did — its CSW decreased from 32.6% to 27.0%, much lower than it’s been in the past two years. He was probably spiking it too much, as his O-Swing rate decreased from his career 40.2% to 33.7% in 2019.

He lost three inches of horizontal movement on his curveball, but it doesn’t seem too related to its regression.

Changeup (11% usage)

Over his career, Clevinger’s changeup has been just short of a Money Pitch, but saw its O-Swing rate lower from a career 39.3% to 33.8% (although its swinging-strike percentage remained intact). Regardless, his 25.9% CSW was the best it’s been, by CSW, since 2017.

2020 Outlook

Clevinger’s strengths are mostly his fastball and slider, but it is fantastic that he has four pitches that have the ability to be at least neutral when it comes to pitch value. I do expect some regression, but that’s because I’m unsure his velocity will come back, and because he posted such absurd numbers. How about a 3.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 30% K rate?

Realistic worst-case projection: 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 26% K rate in 150 IP

Realistic best-case projection: 2.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 35% K rate in 210 IP

Nick’s reluctant Mike Clevinger 2020 projection:

3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32% K rate in 200 IP

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I think he'll be back in the rotation by mid-April, still very excited for his 2020 season

 

I'm pretty confident in saying there's zero chance of him making that time table. I think we'll be lucky to see him before May 1st. I'm personally bumping him down to the Giolito range in my SP rankings. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, twentyone said:

the discount won't be worth the risk. this is gonna be someone else's problem in my league this year. 


Exactly. I feel like the last time we were in this situation was with Severino and that didn't exactly work too well. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I'm pretty confident in saying there's zero chance of him making that time table. I think we'll be lucky to see him before May 1st. I'm personally bumping him down to the Giolito range in my SP rankings. 

I could not disagree more. Eight weeks (long end of timetable) is April 14. Unless I’m mistaken that isn’t 8 weeks until he can rehab—it’s 8 weeks until he’s ready to pitch in MLB games so inclusive of rehab. Assuming no setbacks that puts May 1 at 10 weeks from surgery. 
 

He’s not without risk and it’s tough to buy an injured player but projection wise I can’t see him missing more than 5 starts. 
 

That’s why he isn’t making it past pick 40 still.

 

If anything, that lack of discount should tell you just how valuable SP1s are valued in this market. (Hint-more than you think).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:


Exactly. I feel like the last time we were in this situation was with Severino and that didn't exactly work too well. 

 

Dude the shoulder is different from a meniscus injury for a baseball pitcher (as opposed to a basketball player)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, UberRebel said:

 

Dude the shoulder is different from a meniscus injury for a baseball pitcher (as opposed to a basketball player)

 

Yeah, I get it, but I'm still leery about using a highish draft pick on an injured pitcher going into the season. That's the problem for me. Clevinger was a bit overvalued before the injury so he's not going to fall far enough for me to feel comfortable taking on the risk. There's no chance I'm drafting him over someone like Corbin who's a healthy proven commodity. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I could not disagree more. Eight weeks (long end of timetable) is April 14. Unless I’m mistaken that isn’t 8 weeks until he can rehab—it’s 8 weeks until he’s ready to pitch in MLB games so inclusive of rehab. Assuming no setbacks that puts May 1 at 10 weeks from surgery. 
 

He’s not without risk and it’s tough to buy an injured player but projection wise I can’t see him missing more than 5 starts. 
 

That’s why he isn’t making it past pick 40 still.

 

If anything, that lack of discount should tell you just how valuable SP1s are valued in this market. (Hint-more than you think).

 

Add to that the fact that even when he does come back he's going to be a low pitch count to start swith o you're looking at at least two more weeks until you can use him like a normal starter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Add to that the fact that even when he does come back he's going to be a low pitch count to start swith o you're looking at at least two more weeks until you can use him like a normal starter. 

I still think this is an overreaction. Even in your scenario you will get a dominant May, June, July, August and September, that's 150+ IP of pure top 10 SP stats.

Well I suppose it does depends on league format. If you play roto and were banking on 200IP and he throws 170IP, it could be a slight disappointment. I play H2H so I only really need Clevinger in the second half of the season for my playoff run/playoffs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Yeah, I get it, but I'm still leery about using a highish draft pick on an injured pitcher going into the season. That's the problem for me. Clevinger was a bit overvalued before the injury so he's not going to fall far enough for me to feel comfortable taking on the risk. There's no chance I'm drafting him over someone like Corbin who's a healthy proven commodity. 

Totally fair. I just think this is part recency bias. Reminds me of Lindor last year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Add to that the fact that even when he does come back he's going to be a low pitch count to start swith o you're looking at at least two more weeks until you can use him like a normal starter. 

I don’t know if that’s fair. Was he on low pitch count when he first returned from the back injury? I mean if start #1 is 100 pitches max we’re talking about maybe one less inning. Splitting hairs at that point.

Edited by Magoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Add to that the fact that even when he does come back he's going to be a low pitch count to start swith o you're looking at at least two more weeks until you can use him like a normal starter. 

 

You need to breathe man. Clevinger is 29 and has pitched a 200 IP season just in 2018. No pitch count necessary if he's recovered.

 

Fantasy baseball is a marathon and more injuries will happen. Overreacting to stuff like this just isn't necessary.

Edited by UberRebel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I’d take him in the 4th or 5th round but he’s not falling that far 

If he falls that far I would take him but you are right, I don't think he will

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.