Picard56

J.D. Martinez 2020 Outlook

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Had another great year last year. I hadn't seen a thread for him yet and I was honestly curious what everyone thinks about him going into 2020.

 

The Sox are without Betts now, but still have a decent lineup with Devers and Bogaerts still in it.

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just pray he doesnt fall to late 2nd to one of the top 3 teams with acuna/trout/yelich and jdm. yikes

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

just pray he doesnt fall to late 2nd to one of the top 3 teams with acuna/trout/yelich and jdm. yikes

 

That's Kind of what I am hoping for my 10 team league where I am picking trout first

Edited by Picard56

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All over this guy this year. With Mookie gone I feel like this entire offense is being undervalued big time. Lineup is middle of the road, and I will be all over JDM if his ADP starts slipping. 

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On 2/14/2020 at 3:16 PM, sasnumberonefan said:

All over this guy this year. With Mookie gone I feel like this entire offense is being undervalued big time. Lineup is middle of the road, and I will be all over JDM if his ADP starts slipping. 

In all of my mocks and then actual 12-team drafts he went in the 2nd round - pretty nice value imo.

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On 2/14/2020 at 6:16 PM, sasnumberonefan said:

All over this guy this year. With Mookie gone I feel like this entire offense is being undervalued big time. Lineup is middle of the road, and I will be all over JDM if his ADP starts slipping. 

I think it’s a bit better than middle of the road when it’s filled with good hitters.

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I’m worried about his back and decline last year, but still taking him at the right price. I only do auctions so not sure of his draft price, but in auctions $34 is the highest I’d pay for him and he goes for $32 or so.

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14 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I’m worried about his back and decline last year, but still taking him at the right price. I only do auctions so not sure of his draft price, but in auctions $34 is the highest I’d pay for him and he goes for $32 or so.

what decline? where you expecting for jdm to hit 330 again? difference between down year (totals) and decline

2nd half was much better. 155 game pace of 42 bombs, 131 rbi, 105 runs, 965 ops, 305 avg

 

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On 3/24/2020 at 1:32 PM, colepenhagen said:

what decline? where you expecting for jdm to hit 330 again? difference between down year (totals) and decline

2nd half was much better. 155 game pace of 42 bombs, 131 rbi, 105 runs, 965 ops, 305 avg

 

WRC+
2017: 167

2018: 170

2019: 139

 

HR

2017: 45 in 489 PA

2018: 43 in 649 PA

2019: 36 in 657 PA

 

fWAR

2017: 3.8

2018: 5.9

2019: 3.2

 

SLG

2017: .629

2018: .690

2019: .557

 

He’s very obviously in decline or was clearly worse last year than in the previous years. 

 

 

 


 

 

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4 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He’s very obviously in decline or was clearly worse last year than in the previous years.

Or he had some back issues he was trying to play through as we all know.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/26/2020 at 2:50 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Or he had some back issues he was trying to play through as we all know.

And those back issues just magically disappeared this year despite him being injury prone in the past and getting deeper into his 30’s? He’s in decline and that’s been said by pretty much every respected site analyzing fantasy out there. I guess you have him on your team/teams and don’t want to believe it, but I have him on my teams too and being realistic. I’m not saying he’s worthless or not good anymore, just that he’s in decline, which he is. Steamer thinks so too.

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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10 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

And those back issues just magically disappeared this year despite him being injury prone in the past and getting deeper into his 30’s? He’s in decline and that’s been said by pretty much every respected site analyzing fantasy out there. I guess you have him on your team/teams and don’t want to believe it, but I have him on my teams too and being realistic. I’m not saying he’s worthless or not good anymore, just that he’s in decline, which he is. Steamer thinks so too.

Huh?  No he had back issues for part of last season but has recovered.  And no he has never been injury prone.  And no I do not have him on any of my fantasy teams though I wish I did.

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This is getting ridiculous now, can I get a home run from you, you old sack of shhh.

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10 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

This is getting ridiculous now, can I get a home run from you, you old sack of shhh.

He looks lost out there and it's getting silly.  Talking half-swings, K'ing alot, swings and missed on balls right down the middle, visual frustrations.....

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On 3/28/2020 at 2:13 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Huh?  No he had back issues for part of last season but has recovered.  And no he has never been injury prone.  And no I do not have him on any of my fantasy teams though I wish I did.

Yes he has been injury prone and I guess you still wish you had him on your teams? I told you he was in decline and a bad choice this year and I was right.

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Local sports talk radio out here in Mass feel a lot of his issues are due to the break up in his normal routine. He is a player who watches tons and tons of video of his at bats and previous games, he is deep into the breaking everything down and preparation. The way the travel and schedules are and I guess not having access to all the video and data when he prefers to go over it, they feel has caused him to falter a bit.

 

Like a mental thing, this video and data he religiously goes over is like his binky. Without out it or without having it when he's used to getting his hands on it in past seasons some out here think has impacted his hitting. As talented as he is, he might not need to rely on that stuff too much but in his mind he might he may feel out of his comfort zone not being able to prepare and review all the data beforehand like previous seasons. Aside from the above being a possibility, he's not the only stud bat struggling. Lot's of hitters aren't swinging a hot bat, but hopefully he'll come around sooner than later. 

Edited by tonywow
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2 minutes ago, tonywow said:

Local sports talk radio out here in Mass feel a lot of his issues are due to the break up in his normal routine. He is a player who watches tons and tons of video of his at bats and previous games, he is deep into the breaking everything down and preparation. The way the travel and schedules are and I guess not having access to all the video and data when he prefers to go over it, they feel has caused him to falter a bit.

Like a mental thing, this video and data he religiously goes over is like his binky. Without out it or without having it when he's used to getting his hands on it in past seasons some out here think has impacted his hitting. As talented as he is he might not need to rely on that stuff too much, but in his mind he might he may feel out of his comfort zone not being able to prepare and review all the data beforehand like previous seasons. Aside from the above being a possibility, he's not the only stud bat struggling. Lot's of hitters aren't swinging a hot bat, but hopefully he'll come around sooner than later. 

I agree totally.

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13 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I agree totally.

I like JDM, that 2018 Red Sox team is one of my favorite all time teams and he helped Boston more in the playoffs than Betts. 
 

I also like how you ignored me pointing out that I won our argument from earlier this year. I told you he was going to decline. 
 

This is 2020 not 1975, how is it possible that he’s not able to get video of his at bats because of covid? If anything he should be even more likely to. Are the games not being recorded? You don’t think the Red Sox are doing all they can to help their players? Did all his devices catch covid and he had to socially distance from them so he can’t watch? 
 

The regular routine makes sense until you look at the BABIPS of other struggling hitters and then his. Those struggling stars have low BABIPS implying their struggles being flukes. JDM is sitting on a pretty solid .324 one. His current production isn’t a fluke. I’ll buy that he’s worse than he really is right now and should get better, but the decline is real. 

 

Exit Velocity 

2018: 93

2019: 91.3

2020: 89.3

 

xBA

2018: .313

2019: .307

2020: .237

 

xSLG:

2018: .631

2019: .580

2020: .489

 

WOBA

2017: .430

2018: .428

2019: .386

2020: .279

 

xWOBA

2017: .436

2018: .428

2019: .405

2020: .328

 

Hard Hit %
 

2018: 52.8

2019: 47.9

2020: 38.2

 

He’s in decline and that’s a fact. His stats might have been better with a normal routine but would still be worse than last year. 

Edited by Thenewwildone8
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2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I like JDM, that 2018 Red Sox team is one of my favorite all time teams and he helped Boston more in the playoffs than Betts. 
 

I also like how you ignored me pointing out that I won our argument from earlier this year. I told you he was going to decline.

You didn't win any argument, debate or whatever you thought you were doing.  The Sox have only played what" 13 or 14 games so far.  That is your sample size?

Like tonywow said.  JD is probably the most addicted to watching tapes during the game guys in MLB.  But the new rules this year say that you can't watch them in game and it has totally messed with his head.  He is going through a hard withdraw from his drug of choice so yeah there is going to be some adjustment and it will be difficult for him.  But it is mental.  He looks hesitant and lost at the plate.  Nothing wrong with his skills.  He just doesn't know how to trust to his instincts and is so used to all the technical stuff he has to relearn his game again. 

Also the whole team with very few exceptions looks flat and out of it.  Half or more of the batters are in slumps with Benny and Devers even worse than JD.  There is a whole malaise about the team.  They all know it is a bridge year but they all know they still should be playing better.  They just can't catch the spark they need to get back up to normal it seems.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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19 hours ago, tonywow said:

Local sports talk radio out here in Mass feel a lot of his issues are due to the break up in his normal routine. He is a player who watches tons and tons of video of his at bats and previous games, he is deep into the breaking everything down and preparation. The way the travel and schedules are and I guess not having access to all the video and data when he prefers to go over it, they feel has caused him to falter a bit.

 

Like a mental thing, this video and data he religiously goes over is like his binky. Without out it or without having it when he's used to getting his hands on it in past seasons some out here think has impacted his hitting. As talented as he is, he might not need to rely on that stuff too much but in his mind he might he may feel out of his comfort zone not being able to prepare and review all the data beforehand like previous seasons. Aside from the above being a possibility, he's not the only stud bat struggling. Lot's of hitters aren't swinging a hot bat, but hopefully he'll come around sooner than later. 

 

 

Something to consider, but I disagree with him not having access to video and data immediately. Even in the Covid-age, he should easily have access to clips of his AB's within the hour after that night's game ends. Like, his buddy doing it as a hobby for him could have that ready; it doesn't need to take some special employee of the Red Sox to put that all together for him. 

Edited by RogerKlotz

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Idk guys, I think @Thenewwildone8 has a point.

JD was a fantasy monster on a per game basics up until last year where he regressed more than he has in the previous year.

I think blaming his struggles on his lack of access to watch film is not something y’all should entertain.
He’s batted 11/56 with zero homers so far.

Edited by Simsanityy179

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10 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Idk guys, I think @Thenewwildone8 has a point.

JD was a fantasy monster on a per game basics up until last year where he regressed more than he has in the previous year.

I think blaming his struggles on his lack of access to watch film is not something y’all should entertain.
He’s batted 11/56 with zero homers so far.


I’m a big JDM fan - love the way he turned his career around

 

But I agree, the “his routine has been thrown off” bit seems like a lame excuse

Edited by UberRebel
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22 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Hard Hit %
 

2018: 52.8

2019: 47.9

2020: 38.2

 

He’s in decline and that’s a fact. His stats might have been better with a normal routine but would still be worse than last year. 

 

A 52% hard hit is not sustainable. Not even Mike Trout has finished a full season above 45%

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