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Kenyan Drake 2020 Outlook

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Murray killed two drives with an INT, potential points gone

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Getting touches is encouraging but him not doing anything against the Lions is very disconcerting to me. The mentions in here about him not having the same burst as last season implies that the walking boot was a bigger deal than they let on. On top of that Murray's thought process on drop-backs right now seems to be "is Hopkins even a little bit kind of open? If so, pass it to him. If not, run it. Why would I pass it to the RB when I can run it for 10 yards myself almost every time?" I'm fortunate in that where I own him he's not a must-start for me and I've now reached the point with him where he's on my bench until he puts up a good performance. I'm willing to sit him for one of his potential blowup games so I can see him actually perform before I bring him back in to the circle of trust. 

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I think he will be fine ROS, but it’s clear he’s not going to be what most of us had hoped for. Absolutely shocked he is not more involved in the passing game. 

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honestly i think the lions being weak vs rbs was overrated...they faced the bears week 1 and he didnt do much....the way the packers used aaron jones in the passing game really helped blow that number out in week 2...the schedule is too good to give up yet....he has just as many rush yards as zeke on the season so he is a solid back...hoping week 4 is the get right game

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16 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I think he will be fine ROS, but it’s clear he’s not going to be what most of us had hoped for. Absolutely shocked he is not more involved in the passing game. 

 

Yeah man totally blows, the one area I thought he would be used in heavily. Instead it's mainly carries. So much for his PPR floor 

It's not like last year, this is DHop's team now. That much is clear. He's just not the focal point of this offense.

They want Kyler to sling it .. and why not. The kid has a rocket arm with great accuracy. 

I do see a few blow up games in the future, but elite consistent production like Kamara or Cook we can forget about. 

Annoys me to no end watching Kyler vulturing our TD's , but what can you do.

Edited by RunCMC

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1 hour ago, ponchsox said:

My observations are the same. When he was traded to Arizona last year he looked really explosive. This year he looks noticeably slower and tentative. Could be injury related so hopefully he will get back to his old form soon. The coaches may be using Edmonds more because of this.

Drake was very explosive in MIA too. His quickness and ability to make people miss is where he gets it done. Maybe he has a lingering injury as mentioned above (walking boot)? Great that hes playing through it but not great for his production. Will have to monitor going forward. 

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There was a whole lot of positivity around Drake all summer. Many of us had him ranked at the end of the first, around Jacobs and Sanders and ahead of the guys with “question marks”, AJones and Ekeler. He was a high confidence RB1 with top 5 upside, many people proclaimed.  
The hype on Drake was based on how he balled out down the stretch, and how the maturation of Murray, the addition of Hopkins, and the fast rate of play that the Cards were going to play. This was going to be a high scoring offense going up and down the field. Drake would benefit from spread defenses and would be peppered with screen passes as an integral part. It was conceded that a Murray would take some goal line touches, but in a prolific offense, there would be enough chances to go around. 
 

I drafted him at 1.10. 
The first two weeks were certainly disappointing, but there was a general belief that he would take off when the schedule opened up with lighter defenses. 
 

He even tweeted out last week to his detractors, hinting that a big day was coming. 

Well yesterday, that did not happen. When the cards offense came out onto the field, it was with Chase Edmonds in the backfield. He promptly got two handoffs and showed some energy. 

Drake came in after that. On his first two runs the oline gave little push, not much space and he did not create anything himself. 
That was pretty much how he looked the whole game. He looked like JAG in a pass first offense, interchangeable with Edmonds, who did not seem to have any integral part of the game plan. 

 

So, we are left with a RB3/flex value for a round one price.  

Not great. 

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I’ve seen a couple people now call him a flex. We are all disappointed, but come on. These are floor games for him. He’s still a great athlete getting around 20 touches in an explosive offense. TDs are fluky. Drake will get his. I’m fully expecting high end RB2 production moving forward, which is painful considering where I drafted him, but to call him a flex is comical. 

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16 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I’ve seen a couple people now call him a flex. We are all disappointed, but come on. These are floor games for him. He’s still a great athlete getting around 20 touches in an explosive offense. TDs are fluky. Drake will get his. I’m fully expecting high end RB2 production moving forward, which is painful considering where I drafted him, but to call him a flex is comical. 

Yep, he’s a solid RB2 based on volume, but the lack of targets is aggravating. Murray mostly has eyes only for Hopkins, so nobody else on that offense is a reliable pass catcher from week to week

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26 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I’ve seen a couple people now call him a flex. We are all disappointed, but come on. These are floor games for him. He’s still a great athlete getting around 20 touches in an explosive offense. TDs are fluky. Drake will get his. I’m fully expecting high end RB2 production moving forward, which is painful considering where I drafted him, but to call him a flex is comical. 

Apparently I reached my max limit on number of reactions, so consider this post a "like."

I'm disappointed so far like everyone else, but things could be much worse, look at the Mixon thread.  Drake settling in as a RB2 is fine but not what we all hoped for if we took him at the end of the 1st or beginning/middle of the 2nd.

Edited by ZappB
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Not worried at all, he is still the unquestioned workhorse on a top 8 offense in the nfl. He is getting a bellcow amount of carries and he actually did have some big runs yesterday. Unlike Mixon his schedule isn't that tough and with this volume, big games are ahead. That being said it is strange that he isn't getting a few more check downs, but they DID use him in the red zone but he got stuff a couple of times inside the red zone. I would buy low and enjoy the ride, better days are ahead. 

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30 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I’ve seen a couple people now call him a flex. We are all disappointed, but come on. These are floor games for him. He’s still a great athlete getting around 20 touches in an explosive offense. TDs are fluky. Drake will get his. I’m fully expecting high end RB2 production moving forward, which is painful considering where I drafted him, but to call him a flex is comical. 

So right now, with MNF still to go, Kenyan is RB #24 in my Half-PPR league. 

That's more Flex territory than RB2 lock in my 10-teamer. 

I like the guy, and like his chances moving forward, especially if Kliff Kingsbury has a change of heart like he did last year when he pivoted from Pass heavy to Run heavy, and think he could certainly finish the year as RB #15 or something... but right now he's certainly in the Flex discussion IMO.

I drafted him at 1.08 thinking he'd be a set and forget, and while I like the volume of touches he's had, moving forward I'll certainly evaluate options and matchups and consider whether to start him. At Carolina next week, I get the feeling that the Cards will try to run and get the RB more involved to ease the pressure on Kyler, so am planning to start him again, but I'm now questioning it, and he's not an easy start like he was for me for the first 3 weeks. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

So right now, with MNF still to go, Kenyan is RB #24 in my Half-PPR league. 

That's more Flex territory than RB2 lock in my 10-teamer. 

I like the guy, and like his chances moving forward, especially if Kliff Kingsbury has a change of heart like he did last year when he pivoted from Pass heavy to Run heavy, and think he could certainly finish the year as RB #15 or something... but right now he's certainly in the Flex discussion IMO.

I drafted him at 1.08 thinking he'd be a set and forget, and while I like the volume of touches he's had, moving forward I'll certainly evaluate options and matchups and consider whether to start him. At Carolina next week, I get the feeling that the Cards will try to run and get the RB more involved to ease the pressure on Kyler, so am planning to start him again, but I'm now questioning it, and he's not an easy start like he was for me for the first 3 weeks. 

 

 

Lets be honest, name the 24 rbs better then him, this happens to all players they have dud games. What is Julio Jones ranked right now? Is he a WR4? Same thing when Conner was left for dead and Keenan Allen, etc. To top it off he hasn't even been THAT bad. He will settle in as a top 15 option and probably better TBH, he is getting way too much volume. 

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1 minute ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Lets be honest, name the 24 rbs better then him, this happens to all players they have dud games. What is Julio Jones ranked right now? Is he a WR4? Same thing when Conner was left for dead and Keenan Allen, etc. To top it off he hasn't even been THAT bad. He will settle in as a top 15 option and probably better TBH, he is getting way too much volume. 

Yeah he probably won't finish outside of the top 20, but he did get dinged up last year, he was dinged up this pre season, and kyler keeps sniping goal line touches so there are some reasons for trepidation.  For example, right now Kareem Hunt is RB10, that probably won't last either. But it's a valid question whether to start Drake or Hunt, and that's not what any of us figured when we drafted him. 

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Good Analysis taken from this post: 

 

 

 

Let’s take a look at Kenyan Drake and his weird start to 2020.

Background

  • He played under Gase his whole career, where he averaged 5.4, 4.8, 4.5 ypc on awful Dolphins teams
  • He was traded to a new team and instantly became very valuable, averaging 5.2ypc and just under 4.5 targets a game

This years been weird. Before I state this, I do own drake and Kyler. Kyler will not continue his rushing TD dominance.

  • He already has 4 rushing TDs, matching his 2019 total. Kyler’s on pace for 21 rushing TDs
  • The most TDs a QB has ever rushed for is 14 TDs by Cam Newton in 2014

There’s a HIGH probability that Drake has some positive TD regression.

Moving on to Drake’s receiving ability.

  • As stated before, Drake averaged just under 4.5 targets/game with ARI in 2019.
  • In the 8 games prior to Drake, Kyler targeted David Johnson 5.25 times/game
  • In 2020, Drake is getting less than 2 targets/game

Again, Drake is MOST LIKELY in for some positive regression in this category

Looking at his ROS schedule, based on current YPC against

  1. @CAR - good
  2. @NYJ - good
  3. @DAL - not good
  4. vs SEA - not good
  5. vs MIA - good
  6. vs BUF - average
  7. @SEA - not good
  8. @NE - good
  9. vs LAR - good
  10. @NYG - good
  11. vs PHI - not good
  12. vs SF - average
  13. @LAR - good

He has what should be 7 “good” matchups left. For reference, James Robinson is considered to have a fantastic ROS schedule and also has 7 “good” matchups based on the same parameter.

tl;dr: I’m liking Drake ROS and you should buy low

 

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At the end of the day usage will always be the #1 indicator of success for RBs in the RBBC world that we now live in. Sure Drake hasn't looked great and the random decline in pass game usage is weird/concerning, but he's getting about 70% of the snaps and 20 touches per game which is basically bellcow-level nowadays. 

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On the receptions front, I'm a bit concerned that Chase Edmonds could morph into the reception-leading RB if things continue as they're looking. The team likes Chase, and he has what appears to be a more WR type skill set. Drake isn't bad at catching passes but it's not his strength either. 

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I haven’t gotten to see a Cardinals game yet this year. On the TDs that Murray is “vulturing” from Drake (at least that’s how it’s been characterized), are they running read option and Murray just elects to keep on the read? Or is something else going on?

If it’s read option and Murray’s read has been to keep, I would expect that to change some as the season goes on.  Defenses are going to start to adjust and show LBs tracking the QB and Murray’s read is going to be the handoff.  Murray has shown by now he’s dangerous on the keep.  I think generally once a QB establishes himself as a good red zone scorer, defenses would rather get the ball out of the QB’s hands and leave it up to the D Line to try to stuff the run straight up rather than have the LB play the RB and leave a defensive end matched up on a QB like Murray bearing downhill.  
 

As for Drake, seeing Edmonds get the first carries was curious, but Drake still has the volume in a high scoring offense.  While he has underperformed as a 1st/2nd rounder, but his floor is safe and he’s still upright, so it could be worse.

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8 minutes ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

On the receptions front, I'm a bit concerned that Chase Edmonds could morph into the reception-leading RB if things continue as they're looking. The team likes Chase, and he has what appears to be a more WR type skill set. Drake isn't bad at catching passes but it's not his strength either. 

 

I think he’s pretty good at catching balls in the open field. But doesn’t matter what I think.

The targets ain’t there period. 

Let’s just wait until he falls in the end zone here and there. There will be some nice games ahead i'm sure.

He’s honestly due for some touchdowns.

The article posted above touches on that perfectly. 

 

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23 minutes ago, FeastMode said:

I haven’t gotten to see a Cardinals game yet this year. On the TDs that Murray is “vulturing” from Drake (at least that’s how it’s been characterized), are they running read option and Murray just elects to keep on the read? Or is something else going on?

If it’s read option and Murray’s read has been to keep, I would expect that to change some as the season goes on.  Defenses are going to start to adjust and show LBs tracking the QB and Murray’s read is going to be the handoff.  Murray has shown by now he’s dangerous on the keep.  I think generally once a QB establishes himself as a good red zone scorer, defenses would rather get the ball out of the QB’s hands and leave it up to the D Line to try to stuff the run straight up rather than have the LB play the RB and leave a defensive end matched up on a QB like Murray bearing downhill.  
 

As for Drake, seeing Edmonds get the first carries was curious, but Drake still has the volume in a high scoring offense.  While he has underperformed as a 1st/2nd rounder, but his floor is safe and he’s still upright, so it could be worse.

Yes

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40 minutes ago, FeastMode said:

I haven’t gotten to see a Cardinals game yet this year. On the TDs that Murray is “vulturing” from Drake (at least that’s how it’s been characterized), are they running read option and Murray just elects to keep on the read? Or is something else going on?

Sometimes, but multiple TDs this season have been on designed QB runs. The team's confirmed the 2 runs last week were designed runs for Kyler. So it's not something like he's running with Drake and just not pitching, some of them are 100% kyler out the gates. The silver lining is Kyler is becoming such a threat, that when running a read option with drake, the defense will start collapsing on kyler every time, giving Drake the green light to go for it. 

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1 hour ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

On the receptions front, I'm a bit concerned that Chase Edmonds could morph into the reception-leading RB if things continue as they're looking. The team likes Chase, and he has what appears to be a more WR type skill set. Drake isn't bad at catching passes but it's not his strength either. 

 

He played almost as much WR in college as he did RB. 

 

He is an excellent receiver and route runner. Right now chase looks.luke he does it better cause Drake looks slow, probably still injured/playing hurt.

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I have a theory. Hear me out on this:

Interesting reading that Drake doesn't look as explosive as he did and doesn't have that second gear considering that is EXACTLY what happened to DJ after coming back from his wrist injury. So I began to wonder, "is there any correlation?" Now, as someone who has watched "Sherlock" I pride myself at being a very good detective so I decided to dive in.

Chase Edmonds entered the league at the same time as DJ started to fall off the cliff from a running ability standpoint. Now this may be just a coincidence but get this - EDMONDS IS ALSO DRAKES BACKUP. The fact that Drake looks like he is a step behind same as DJ doesn't sit well with me. Is Edmonds poisoning the water so he can take over? Is he slowly putting something in the starting RBs food causing them to slow down? This much is unclear. From my research (which is only wikipedia) there's no history of Edmonds doing this. However, just something to keep in mind...

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7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I have a theory. Hear me out on this:

Interesting reading that Drake doesn't look as explosive as he did and doesn't have that second gear considering that is EXACTLY what happened to DJ after coming back from his wrist injury. So I began to wonder, "is there any correlation?" Now, as someone who has watched "Sherlock" I pride myself at being a very good detective so I decided to dive in.

Chase Edmonds entered the league at the same time as DJ started to fall off the cliff from a running ability standpoint. Now this may be just a coincidence but get this - EDMONDS IS ALSO DRAKES BACKUP. The fact that Drake looks like he is a step behind same as DJ doesn't sit well with me. Is Edmonds poisoning the water so he can take over? Is he slowly putting something in the starting RBs food causing them to slow down? This much is unclear. From my research (which is only wikipedia) there's no history of Edmonds doing this. However, just something to keep in mind...

I don't have any evidence to refute this so I have to believe it to be true.

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