FantasyGuru24

Kenyan Drake 2020 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Ravioli27 said:

Imagine getting beat out by a dude who averaged a 1.8 ypc last season. smh. Now he's suddenly a rb1? 

He did always flash potential even in Miami.  Wouldn’t be the first guy to finally reach his potential once leaving the team that drafted him. But yes agree it’s crazy that some think he’s franchise tag worthy 

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On 2/24/2020 at 11:15 PM, BMcP said:

K.  We will figure out who was right shortly - I’m not concerned one way or the other.

 

💤 well!

 

Being right or wrong about the currently unknown future outcome of Drake and AZ is irrelevant to me.

What is relevant to me is having a sound process in analyzing known information, this is what helps us all to be better players at fantasy. We refine our process of known data to determine the best outcomes when we select and manage our teams. 

When Drake is signed to a contract we will all again go through a process on how to value him based on the known data.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Being right or wrong about the currently unknown future outcome of Drake and AZ is irrelevant to me.

What is relevant to me is having a sound process in analyzing known information, this is what helps us all to be better players at fantasy. We refine our process of known data to determine the best outcomes when we select and manage our teams. 

When Drake is signed to a contract we will all again go through a process on how to value him based on the known data.

Ok - process-wise, isn’t it helpful to discuss his outlook if he remains with the Cards?  I’d have to describe the answer to that question as an integral part to any sound process.

Edited by BMcP

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56 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Ok - process-wise, isn’t it helpful to discuss his outlook if he remains with the Cards?  I’d have to describe the answer to that question as an integral part to any sound process.

 

yes that  is what everyone in the thread is doing. But the process starts with determining  the most likely outcome of him staying or not.  The GM makes a public statement about a franchise tag and we fantasy players apply the stress test to that potential outcome.  My view is the GM is talking out of the side of his neck because a tag is the worst possible outcome for the team given personnel and salary cap  economics. Franchise tags are applied to elite or core players, not guys who played 6 games and never had a feature role in their career. it simply  does not happen.  Melvin Gordon and kareem hunt will be the top 2 rbs  to hit the market with a reumes of  every down players and maybe they get top 5 money, so how does Drake get that type of payday and he  has yet to play a full season as an every down rb?

The last tag and trade guy in recent memory was Landry to the Browns who had a solid body of work as an elite  pass catcher. 

The last midseason trade, tag and sign guy was. . .I don't know 😂

So Drake being resigned toby AZ to a Duke/Dion type deal is very probable. Drake being tagged or tagged and traded is highly improbable.

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So, long story short: you do expect him to stay in AZ.  I think that lines up with what everyone else here thinks, for the most part.

 

So on to Step 2 of your aforementioned process: how do you value him in upcoming drafts if he’s a Cardinal?

Edited by BMcP

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

So, long story short: you do expect him to stay in AZ.  I think that lines up with what everyone else here thinks, for the most part.

 

So on to Step 2 of your aforementioned process: how do you value him in upcoming drafts if he’s a Cardinal?

 

 I stated my view a few pages back. if all 3 rb's are healthy and signed start of season, it will be a rbbc.  All 3 rb's can catch, run and block. All 3 rb's have some history of getting nicked up. All 3 rb's have demonstrated they can produce in the offense.  2 of those rb's will be on vet money contracts which means neither will sit if healthy. The team has shown us they will implement the hot hand approach. This also a team with a 2nd yr HC who is still figuring out how to coach on the NFL level.  This is also a team that has gotten so much wrong by the current GM the last 4yrs. I dont spend high draft capital on bad teams. So good luck figuring out week to week what the touch distribution and utilization will be. I doubt the rotation is going to be a simple 60/40, 50/50, etc split

The problem with evaluating an AZ rb is the volatility of the outcomes based on the numerous variables I mentioned above. The talent of the player is almost irrelevant in the equation because the rb position seems to be plug and play as the focus is on building a pass heavy offense.

My strategy is simple avoid drafting any as a rb1, let someone else in my draft pay up for the pre-season consensus primary rb (probably taken end of 3rd rd) and then grab one of the other 2 as cheaply as possible. 

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

So, long story short: you do expect him to stay in AZ.  I think that lines up with what everyone else here thinks, for the most part.

 

So on to Step 2 of your aforementioned process: how do you value him in upcoming drafts if he’s a Cardinal?

 

I don't have any expectation as to whether he stays or goes because the FA market can get loopy (no one expected SF to sign mkinnon to the deal he got).  DJ is the main obstacle in every scenario, resign and Drake is not guaranteed that DJ will suck and Drake is on the losing side of a season long timeshare with Edmonds waiting in the wings the following season. if Drake signs with a new team he is going into a deal knowing exactly what his role will be, he is not guaranteed that in AZ because AZ has no team identity. The team is in a rebuild with a new offense and HC and will probably suck again as they draft new players and purge more vets.

I do however bet against him being tagged by AZ which wold make zero sense on multiple levels.

 

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I see your points, but I have to respectfully disagree: KK showed that he was more interested in riding one lead back (Drake) rather than circulate backs in-game or week-to-week as soon as Drake arrived in AZ.  As I stated above, if fears of a committee bring his price down, I’ll be all over it wherever I can.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.revengeofthebirds.com/platform/amp/2020/2/4/21122092/was-drake-a-mistake

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15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I don't have any expectation as to whether he stays or goes because the FA market can get loopy (no one expected SF to sign mkinnon to the deal he got). 

 

Didn’t you just say above that Arizona’s re-signing Drake was “very probable”?  Now I’m just confused.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Didn’t you just say above that Arizona’s re-signing Drake was “very probable”?  Now I’m just confused.  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

 i'm not sure why you are confused. The word probable means "likely" . Likely does not mean 100% will happen. Here is another form--

Drake being tagged is highly "improbable" but that does not mean it is impossible.😂

SO to crystalize my view to avoid further confusion for you. I can see scenarios where he resigns with the team and I can see scenarios where he goes to other teams in FA. The scenario I would bet against is the one you were promoting of being tagged baed off the GM interview. 

Who cares if you or I are right or wrong, it's pre-season so this is all speculation. that is unless you are in a league that allows trades all year round; then you may be inclined to trade on any rumor. 

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Thanks for clarifying.  Yes, obviously, nothing is known for certain at this point. With respect to Step 1 of the process, I just wanted to confirm that it made sense to assume, for the sake of discussion, that Drake would be a Cardinal one way or the other.  You find that outcome to be “very likely” so I think it’s the right time to move onto Step 2.

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21 hours ago, JHM_13 said:

This guy couldn’t beat out Kalen Ballage...Just a flash in the pan in Arizona

 

5.8 ypc last season with Arizona. What did Kallen Ballage have?

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

5.8 ypc last season with Arizona. What did Kallen Ballage have?

That is one spectacular pan-flash...

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On 2/26/2020 at 5:11 PM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

5.8 ypc last season with Arizona. What did Kallen Ballage have?

 
1.8 for Kalen. In that case, I’m all in on Drake 🙄

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(Rotoworld) CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports free agent Kenyan Drake is seeking $8-$10 million annually. Analysis: That would be top-five money. Drake has never shown more than flashes outside of an eight-game stretch with the Cardinals, but teams may be willing to overpay for a 26-year-old coming off career highs. The Cardinals can franchise Drake, but his long-term demands may price him out of Arizona.

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17 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

(Rotoworld) CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports free agent Kenyan Drake is seeking $8-$10 million annually. Analysis: That would be top-five money. Drake has never shown more than flashes outside of an eight-game stretch with the Cardinals, but teams may be willing to overpay for a 26-year-old coming off career highs. The Cardinals can franchise Drake, but his long-term demands may price him out of Arizona.

 

He's out of his mind.

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46 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

(Rotoworld) CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports free agent Kenyan Drake is seeking $8-$10 million annually. Analysis: That would be top-five money. Drake has never shown more than flashes outside of an eight-game stretch with the Cardinals, but teams may be willing to overpay for a 26-year-old coming off career highs. The Cardinals can franchise Drake, but his long-term demands may price him out of Arizona.

 

29 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

He's out of his mind.

Yeah, that's crazy

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Lions and Skins are already rumored to have interest should he hit the market.  I don’t see that happening, though.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Lions and Skins are already rumored to have interest should he hit the market.  I don’t see that happening, though.

 

Not good fits for The Drake.

 

ATL, TB, HOU, DEN would be good fits. He fits great in AZ but if he wants 8-10 per year I don't think AZ can do that until DJ is gone. 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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3 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

calling it here....the Chiefs will sign Kenyan Drake. 

Nahhhhb DWill is the same player cheaper right?

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2 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Nahhhhb DWill is the same player cheaper right?

Very close to the same - and the Chiefs are cap-strapped.  Don’t see that happening at all.

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4 hours ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

(Rotoworld) CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports free agent Kenyan Drake is seeking $8-$10 million annually. Analysis: That would be top-five money. Drake has never shown more than flashes outside of an eight-game stretch with the Cardinals, but teams may be willing to overpay for a 26-year-old coming off career highs. The Cardinals can franchise Drake, but his long-term demands may price him out of Arizona.

 

Not going to happen, he is trying to get a Mckinnon type of deal and everyone said SF overpaid as soon as it was announced. Coleman got the we learned our lesson contract 😂

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Drake will get that money.  He's young enough and good enough.  That's my prediction. 

26 year old backs who have shown they can be elite in stretches, with not that many career carries, do not reach unrestricted free agency too often.

And I am going to prefer the 2020 Drake signing to the 2019 Bell signing, even though the first one hasn't even happened yet.

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Drake will get that money.  He's young enough and good enough.  That's my prediction. 

26 year old backs who have shown they can be elite in stretches, with not that many career carries, do not reach unrestricted free agency too often.

And I am going to prefer the 2020 Drake signing to the 2019 Bell signing, even though the first one hasn't even happened yet.

It’s possible Az can structure a 3 year deal with a large part of the cap hit coming after the 2020 season.   
 

Still doesn’t address the elephant in the room-   He’s a decent rb and 10M is top 5 money.   I dont think he’s worth it.    

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