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Terry McLaurin 2020 Outlook

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Sims also scored against the vaunted NE defense for Washingtons only TD. But his last 3 games were amazing 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Umm if the other team covers Terry with their best guy, what then

 

That was already happening last year , so what's your point ? I see nothing but positives in 2020 ... Haskins 2nd year , Terry's sophomore campaign , Ron Rivera righting the ship , & the defense improving exponentially. Which means their offense will have more opportunities 

I'm definitely not writing off Sims ... he'll have a much better year as well , of that I'm certain . Him performing better will help Terry out if anything 

Edited by RunCMC

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Good. What you are saying if that the QB is going to progress,  and throw to different people.  

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1 minute ago, urban2014 said:

Good. What you are saying if that the QB is going to progress,  and throw to different people.  

 

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying ... Haskins will be slinging it to their 4th string wideouts 🙄

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How is he 4th ? He is second last I checked 

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Who is going to take over? Lattimore? The Rookie that they got in the 4th round? Those guys

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

How is he 4th ? He is second last I checked 

 

That really went over your head huh ? the emoji didn't help at all   *sarcasm mate 

Edited by RunCMC

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Nice try. You didn't even know who the Redskins have as their WR other then Scary 

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5 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Nice try. You didn't even know who the Redskins have as their WR other then Scary 

 

Yup you got me , have a good day. 

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I don’t see any way McClaurin gets under 140 targets this year, that along with his talent should equate to a successful fantasy season.

 

He is one of the few you don’t have to overthink, if he’s healthy he will produce. The dude is a baller 

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1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Umm if the other team covers Terry with their best guy, what then

Then they line up and play football.  I'm not sure what you're asking exactly.  Are you saying McLaurin is incapable of beating #1 corners? CMC pointed out he was already doing that last year.  Doesn't every team's best WR typically get the #1 CB?  Should we DND every #1 WR, because they're going to be covered by a #1 CB? Outside of a few match-ups, I don't see a crazy schedule of CBs Terry might have to face.  And this isn't the TB Bucs.  It's not like the Redskins can just ignore Terry and go to their other studly options.  Sure Sims showed some flash last year, but outside of him they have zero.  

Plus with injuries and especially now with COVID, I don't think you can look too far ahead this season in terms of match ups.  

Just because a WR gets the CB1 treatment doesn't automatically mean he's a non-factor.  The WRs get paid to make plays too.

 

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Great rookie campaign, interested to see what he does in year 2 

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Posted (edited)

Redskins are 4th in the league with 178 vacated targets

I actually expect a stronger defense in 2020 and the change in game scripts cutting the bump in passing volume that comes from sophomore Haskins rather than the rookie version and from Scott Turner as OC.

I'll project maybe 20 more passing attempts than 2019 numbers--bit on the conservative end but won't go beyond that. The bread and butter of this team is the running game. That number of pass attempts would be less than they had in 2018 with Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Colt McCoy so I don't think I am being overly optimistic--still the 5th most run heavy team in the NFL

Of these additional targets it is a bit tricky to divide them up considering there are two rookies who will be commanding a significant portion in Gibson and AGG but since McLaurin is still the best WR in Washington by a good amount so I will give him 20% of those. If giving Gibson and AGG a majority (around 65% since all their looks will come from this additional target pool), that still leaves 10% for Sims (in addition to the 56 targets he already had last season) and leftovers for Guice, Peterson and their star TEs like *checks notes* Jeremy Sprinkle? (added onto the ones they already had last season)

McLaurin had 93 targets last season in 15 games. For purposes of this projection and being conservative let's assume those were over 16 games

That brings his target load up to 132.

Last season he had a catch rate of 62.4%. This is a stat that often increases for WRs after their rookie years--often significantly, but I won't bump it too much for the sake of projection

With that said I am not a Haskins believer but I don't believe it is very possible for him to be much worse than he was last year--just from that quality of targets improving (not that much in my opinion--I am low on Haskins) catch rate should go up even before considering McLaurin's improvement

I will give him a 63.5% catch rate--just a 1% increase

Now comes YPR. Last season McLaurin registered a remarkable 15.8 YPR--13th among qualified receivers

As volume goes up (with targets) it is only natural for efficiency to come down. I don't believe his YPR will totally crater considering his burner speed, but more targets also means more in the short/intermediate range.

I'll knock that down from 15.8 to 14.6--in the range of 22nd-24th among qualified receivers last year and equal to players like John Brown and Sammy Watkins, just below players like Robby Anderson, Darius Slayton and Amari Cooper and just above guys like Jarvis Landry and Adam Thielen.

Next comes TDs. This is an area where there may be possible regression as well, with Rivera/Turner's Panthers airing it out often between the 20s to switch back to the running game in the red zone (suppressing DJ Moore's TD totals for example). Then again they had McCaffrey and the Skins don't, and a small bump in passing volume/overall offensive quality from Haskins not being as terrible also increases chances of a big play. 

One possible area of concern in this department could also be the use of TEs in the RZ frequently seen in Carolina and more so the entry of a player like AGG who specifically profiles as a Red Zone option.

Still McLaurin is the best WR in Washington and the Redskins TEs are garbage so I can't dock him too much, but he was VERY efficient in getting his 7 TDs last year (considering unlike most rookie WRs he had a 90% snap count from week 1)--a level of efficiency he would need a bigger volume bump than I am giving him to exceed or dramatic improvement from Haskins, so I'll actually bump him down to 6 TDs for the sake of not being overly optimistic.

 

All of this produces a 16 game stat line of:

84 receptions, 1233 yards, 6 TDs

 

In 2019 in half PPR that would have been good for a WR12 finish overall in points and WR16 on PPG assuming he played 16 games.  You can choose which you value more but splitting the difference I'll say WR14

Not a guarantee or a pure hype post but using some numbers to see what his 2020 could look like even with very conservative expectations on passing volume, Haskins' abilities and TD rates and accounting for regression in YPR

Edited by mocha4313
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Posted (edited)

This is also before considering Harmon's 44 now vacated targets--a small number but a 15% share (I'll assume most of these go to Sims and the big bodied--like Harmon--WR in AGG) and 63.5% catch rate would bring his totals up to:

88 receptions for 1291 yards and 6 TDs

In 2019 that line would have been:

WR9 in half PPR and WR11 on PPG

😀

 

Now watch Snyder sign AB and mess this all up

Edited by mocha4313

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We all know he’s capable of big things clearly, however one thing that concerns me other than Haskins that I really don’t see anyone talking about is his schedule, especially over the first 5 weeks, it seems brutal.

 

Philly (Darius Slay)

ARZ (Patrick Peterson)

Cleveland (Denzel Ward)

Baltimore (Humphrey and Peters)

Rams (Jalen Ramsey)

Not to mention playing Pittsburgh who has a good defense and secondary, the 49ers who have a good defense, and even the Giants who signed James Bradberry who has shown flashes of being a pretty good CB, and Detroit who signed Trufant and drafted Okudah. 
 

As much as I like Terry, that’s a brutal schedule of great, really good or potentially good CBs, though I admit I mostly concerned about weeks 1-5. Possible he starts somewhat slow?

 

 

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13 hours ago, Shake said:

We all know he’s capable of big things clearly, however one thing that concerns me other than Haskins that I really don’t see anyone talking about is his schedule, especially over the first 5 weeks, it seems brutal.

 

Philly (Darius Slay)

ARZ (Patrick Peterson)

Cleveland (Denzel Ward)

Baltimore (Humphrey and Peters)

Rams (Jalen Ramsey)

Not to mention playing Pittsburgh who has a good defense and secondary, the 49ers who have a good defense, and even the Giants who signed James Bradberry who has shown flashes of being a pretty good CB, and Detroit who signed Trufant and drafted Okudah. 
 

As much as I like Terry, that’s a brutal schedule of great, really good or potentially good CBs, though I admit I mostly concerned about weeks 1-5. Possible he starts somewhat slow?

 

 

 

Could be, although there could be a preponderance of garbage time in these games where Washington gets a bunch of freebie completions while behind too.  

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15 hours ago, Shake said:

We all know he’s capable of big things clearly, however one thing that concerns me other than Haskins that I really don’t see anyone talking about is his schedule, especially over the first 5 weeks, it seems brutal.

 

Philly (Darius Slay)

ARZ (Patrick Peterson)

Cleveland (Denzel Ward)

Baltimore (Humphrey and Peters)

Rams (Jalen Ramsey)

Not to mention playing Pittsburgh who has a good defense and secondary, the 49ers who have a good defense, and even the Giants who signed James Bradberry who has shown flashes of being a pretty good CB, and Detroit who signed Trufant and drafted Okudah. 
 

As much as I like Terry, that’s a brutal schedule of great, really good or potentially good CBs, though I admit I mostly concerned about weeks 1-5. Possible he starts somewhat slow?

 

 

I dare the Cardinals, Ravens and Rams to put washed PP, Peters and Ramsey 1 on 1 against Terry

Seriously please do it

 

For the questiom though as a shadow corner the only one of these guys that scares me is Humphey, though Pittsburgh and SF will be tough matchups as well

Bradberry is good and so is Okudah but it’s going to take more than that to get me to start fearing the Giants and Lions defenses

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Judging by all the reports of what is supposed to drop tomorrow on this organization the team is about to be sent to the moon. I understand they have a good coach but man I want nothing to do with this team right now. There's no way the amount of disfunction and **** that goes on at the top doesn't trickle down. That combined with a QB that was already pretty bad last year and I doubt an experienced coach is going to save this offense. How much a second year WR on a bottom 3 offense is going to be worth I don't know. It's a damn tough sell at his ADP though.

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24 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Judging by all the reports of what is supposed to drop tomorrow on this organization the team is about to be sent to the moon. I understand they have a good coach but man I want nothing to do with this team right now. There's no way the amount of disfunction and **** that goes on at the top doesn't trickle down. That combined with a QB that was already pretty bad last year and I doubt an experienced coach is going to save this offense. How much a second year WR on a bottom 3 offense is going to be worth I don't know. It's a damn tough sell at his ADP though.

I mean it's mostly at the top though right?

I really doubt any players get busted for this and the coaching staff just got here. 

Rivera is a good coach, a good man and the perfect guy to steady the ship and keep the focus on football--one good thing Snyder did and it may have been the last

Still don't think the team will be any good but I don't think it will be because of external factors

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1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

I mean it's mostly at the top though right?

I really doubt any players get busted for this and the coaching staff just got here. 

Rivera is a good coach, a good man and the perfect guy to steady the ship and keep the focus on football--one good thing Snyder did and it may have been the last

Still don't think the team will be any good but I don't think it will be because of external factors

This change could just as easily fire up the team.

Last season I was still making jokes about what a total dumpster fire they were, but I really like the kind of players they've drafted, last season's players also didn't completely bust (the jury's still out on Haskins), and if the new team name lights a fire under the team, who knows what they're capable of. It could be one of those Cinderella stories like the Saints winning the Superbowl out of the destruction of hurricane Katrina.

I'm certainly not writing McLaurin off.

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Posted (edited)

I love McLaurin’s skill set, I believe he can be a top 10 WR in the league one day soon. He has his former college QB throwing to him who should pepper him with targets. If he is a better wr than last year which is likely, and gets the targets he will produce.

I don’t think Haskins is that great but he’s been putting in work this off-season if you follow his social media, and he loves Terry. I’m all aboard this year 

Edited by Breesus
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13 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

I mean it's mostly at the top though right?

I really doubt any players get busted for this and the coaching staff just got here. 

Rivera is a good coach, a good man and the perfect guy to steady the ship and keep the focus on football--one good thing Snyder did and it may have been the last

Still don't think the team will be any good but I don't think it will be because of external factors

It’s going to be yet another immense distraction in an off-season already chock-full of immense distractions.  One man (Rivera) can only do so much to steady the ship.  Maybe the current roster of players rise above it all and creative a new “winning” narrative that drowns out the rest.  But this team still projects to be pretty bad.  It has to have at least some sort of adverse effect on team morale and, by extension, performance.

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Posted (edited)

Terry is a special kind of talent, going to absolutely crush it this year. None of us truly know the caliber of Washington's offense this upcoming season .... be it good , bad, or ugly. But the kid will be soaking up targets from Haskins in bunches, and he can make plays all over the field. At worst I see him becoming a PPR stud. And if McLaurin can get decent play from his quarterback , top15 @ WR is definitely within reach. 

Edited by RunCMC
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22 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Judging by all the reports of what is supposed to drop tomorrow on this organization the team is about to be sent to the moon.

 

It turned out to be a nothingburger (some guys were flirting with women at the office)

Rotoworld's blurb writer is still worked up about it though.  😂

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