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Terry McLaurin 2020 Outlook

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22 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This change could just as easily fire up the team.

Last season I was still making jokes about what a total dumpster fire they were, but I really like the kind of players they've drafted, last season's players also didn't completely bust (the jury's still out on Haskins), and if the new team name lights a fire under the team, who knows what they're capable of. It could be one of those Cinderella stories like the Saints winning the Superbowl out of the destruction of hurricane Katrina.

I'm certainly not writing McLaurin off.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29476727/report-15-women-allege-sexual-misconduct-former-washington-employees

i like your optimism though 😜

I feel pretty good about terry at ADP. He certainly showed his worth last year and you gotta think that’s a floorish type season going into year 2.

the targets should be there for a pretty safe season finish and he has the talent and upside for more.

i get the downside too though, it’s not easy to be a #1 guy without a lot of support for anyone, let alone a sophomore. Fortunately he already got about half a season of that treatment last year and seemed to have learned from it enough to find some late production  

 

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1 hour ago, Nap Time said:

 

It turned out to be a nothingburger (some guys were flirting with women at the office)

Rotoworld's blurb writer is still worked up about it though.  😂


we don’t really know what it was/is, but the initial reports seem a little light (and I hate that I’m using that word) on serious/gross wrongdoings. 
 

you know, this feels like pretty interesting timing to me. Call me skeptical. The org is going through a huge name change, seems to have been dealing with some copyright/legal issue with it, and now this huge report comes out?

 

i would say that there’s a nonzero possibility that there’s a little conspiracy action here and this is a chess move in a bigger game. It would make sense for opposing parties to gain leverage both on the reputation of Snyder and the team as well as exhaust more lawyers and resources. 

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17 minutes ago, aapox said:

Yeah I read the WaPo story too. Not great, but then again, it's the same Washington Trashbins that did this in 2013: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/sports/redskins-cheerleaders-nfl.html.

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On 7/17/2020 at 3:17 AM, aapox said:


we don’t really know what it was/is, but the initial reports seem a little light (and I hate that I’m using that word) on serious/gross wrongdoings. 
 

you know, this feels like pretty interesting timing to me. Call me skeptical. The org is going through a huge name change, seems to have been dealing with some copyright/legal issue with it, and now this huge report comes out?

 

i would say that there’s a nonzero possibility that there’s a little conspiracy action here and this is a chess move in a bigger game. It would make sense for opposing parties to gain leverage both on the reputation of Snyder and the team as well as exhaust more lawyers and resources. 

It's the almighty race card, no more, no less. There is no more powerful force in the universe right now. :rolleyes:  Anyway - 

I like his chances this year but at a modest value. A QB who should take the next step will help.

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47 minutes ago, bomont said:

It's the almighty race card, no more, no less. There is no more powerful force in the universe right now. :rolleyes:  Anyway - 

I like his chances this year but at a modest value. A QB who should take the next step will help.

 

Race card, eh? The name-change? If that's what you're addressing, it sounds like you don't understand the depth the issue. I was talking about the sexual harassment suit though, and how I think it may have been filed now in order undermine the current management by opposing parties.

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On 7/15/2020 at 3:55 AM, mocha4313 said:

Redskins are 4th in the league with 178 vacated targets

I actually expect a stronger defense in 2020 and the change in game scripts cutting the bump in passing volume that comes from sophomore Haskins rather than the rookie version and from Scott Turner as OC.

I'll project maybe 20 more passing attempts than 2019 numbers--bit on the conservative end but won't go beyond that. The bread and butter of this team is the running game. That number of pass attempts would be less than they had in 2018 with Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Colt McCoy so I don't think I am being overly optimistic--still the 5th most run heavy team in the NFL

Of these additional targets it is a bit tricky to divide them up considering there are two rookies who will be commanding a significant portion in Gibson and AGG but since McLaurin is still the best WR in Washington by a good amount so I will give him 20% of those. If giving Gibson and AGG a majority (around 65% since all their looks will come from this additional target pool), that still leaves 10% for Sims (in addition to the 56 targets he already had last season) and leftovers for Guice, Peterson and their star TEs like *checks notes* Jeremy Sprinkle? (added onto the ones they already had last season)

McLaurin had 93 targets last season in 15 games. For purposes of this projection and being conservative let's assume those were over 16 games

That brings his target load up to 132.

Last season he had a catch rate of 62.4%. This is a stat that often increases for WRs after their rookie years--often significantly, but I won't bump it too much for the sake of projection

With that said I am not a Haskins believer but I don't believe it is very possible for him to be much worse than he was last year--just from that quality of targets improving (not that much in my opinion--I am low on Haskins) catch rate should go up even before considering McLaurin's improvement

I will give him a 63.5% catch rate--just a 1% increase

Now comes YPR. Last season McLaurin registered a remarkable 15.8 YPR--13th among qualified receivers

As volume goes up (with targets) it is only natural for efficiency to come down. I don't believe his YPR will totally crater considering his burner speed, but more targets also means more in the short/intermediate range.

I'll knock that down from 15.8 to 14.6--in the range of 22nd-24th among qualified receivers last year and equal to players like John Brown and Sammy Watkins, just below players like Robby Anderson, Darius Slayton and Amari Cooper and just above guys like Jarvis Landry and Adam Thielen.

Next comes TDs. This is an area where there may be possible regression as well, with Rivera/Turner's Panthers airing it out often between the 20s to switch back to the running game in the red zone (suppressing DJ Moore's TD totals for example). Then again they had McCaffrey and the Skins don't, and a small bump in passing volume/overall offensive quality from Haskins not being as terrible also increases chances of a big play. 

One possible area of concern in this department could also be the use of TEs in the RZ frequently seen in Carolina and more so the entry of a player like AGG who specifically profiles as a Red Zone option.

Still McLaurin is the best WR in Washington and the Redskins TEs are garbage so I can't dock him too much, but he was VERY efficient in getting his 7 TDs last year (considering unlike most rookie WRs he had a 90% snap count from week 1)--a level of efficiency he would need a bigger volume bump than I am giving him to exceed or dramatic improvement from Haskins, so I'll actually bump him down to 6 TDs for the sake of not being overly optimistic.

 

All of this produces a 16 game stat line of:

84 receptions, 1233 yards, 6 TDs

 

In 2019 in half PPR that would have been good for a WR12 finish overall in points and WR16 on PPG assuming he played 16 games.  You can choose which you value more but splitting the difference I'll say WR14

Not a guarantee or a pure hype post but using some numbers to see what his 2020 could look like even with very conservative expectations on passing volume, Haskins' abilities and TD rates and accounting for regression in YPR

I appreciate this big time. Hoping for more of a Dwayne Bowe Allen Robinson TD explosion season with garbage QBs though 

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On 7/15/2020 at 6:17 PM, mocha4313 said:

I dare the Cardinals, Ravens and Rams to put washed PP, Peters and Ramsey 1 on 1 against Terry

Seriously please do it

 

For the questiom though as a shadow corner the only one of these guys that scares me is Humphey, though Pittsburgh and SF will be tough matchups as well

Bradberry is good and so is Okudah but it’s going to take more than that to get me to start fearing the Giants and Lions defenses

 

Water covers 2/3 of the world, Jalen covers the other 1/3. If you own Terry you don't want Ramsey covering him.

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10 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

Water covers 2/3 of the world, Jalen covers the other 1/3. If you own Terry you don't want Ramsey covering him.

Careful - Fred Smoot might sue you for copyright infringement.

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12 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

Water covers 2/3 of the world, Jalen covers the other 1/3. If you own Terry you don't want Ramsey covering him.

Eh agree to disagree: Ramsey has been overrated for a while now to me

Since 2017

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BMcP said:

Careful - Fred Smoot might sue you for copyright infringement.

 

I thought it was Ramsey who said that about himself my apologies. Google is bringing up Prime Time as the originator of it, maybe somewhere since Ramsey was the only true freshman starting CB at FSU since Deion that it was used talking about Ramsey.

Smoot also said it

Deion said I cover the rest in his quote. Smoot in 3rd person said the other third is covered by Fred Smoot.

Edited by turner46
found smoot
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3 hours ago, BMcP said:

Careful - Fred Smoot might sue you for copyright infringement.

3ilpuf1p8rvj98tzg.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

3ilpuf1p8rvj98tzg.jpg

 

It would appear the phrase hasn't been trademarked

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22 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

3ilpuf1p8rvj98tzg.jpg

As you’ve demonstrated, it’s clearly in the public domain and therefore not subject to copyright protection.  GC Boudewijn gets a raise!

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47 minutes ago, ChefCurryWitDaPot said:

Been seeing Terry go in round 4. Where are ya'll taking him?

I’d take him in round 3

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Just picked him up in the sixth round of a draft today.  Seems like his draft position is all over the map.  Super stoked to have him on my team though.  Terry has wheels 

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He's criminally low in most rankings you'll find. ESPN has him outside top 20 which is ridiculous.He's a top 15 WR this year. Where the hell is the ball going if not to him? I could see him getting an insane amount of targets. Washington sucks, but elite talent + a lot of targets usually produces good results.

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On 6/12/2020 at 7:04 PM, RunCMC said:

The kid is in for a HUGE year, don’t let the QB situation scare you. Clearly the undisputed alpha on the team. Top 20 finish is definitely attainable, maybe even Top 15. IF Haskins can flash some upside in his 2020 campaign. Buying everywhere I can.
SCARY TERRY !! 👻
 

Terry McLaurin: highest-graded rookie WR since 2014. - 86.5 PFF grade

- 76% success rate vs. man coverage (89th percentile) -

79.7% success rate vs. press (93rd percentile.

- Excellent across the route tree.

 

 

 

Just a friendly reminder, big things coming his sophomore year. Book it 

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1 hour ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Just picked him up in the sixth round of a draft today.  Seems like his draft position is all over the map.  Super stoked to have him on my team though.  Terry has wheels 

Nice pickup and great value!  I think he's going in the 4th round in Yahoo.  

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Can someone help me rank McLaurin, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley and DJ Chark. All have fairly similar ADP's, and most of these guys are getting drafted to be your WR2. They are all young and I haven't seen a ton of any of them. I think if I had to rank it, I'd have it as: 

1. McLaurin
2. Ridley
3. Chark
4. Brown

Washington has to throw it to someone, who else do they have to throw to? Shouldn't he be a near lock for 10 targets a game? I guess the main worry is, can Haskins get him the ball and can Washington sustain drives on offense. I feel like I want to target one of these guys as my WR2. Likely won't touch Brown, don't like that he is on a run first team. McLaurin and Chark on the go to WR's on their teams, but QB and offense are big questionmarks. Ridley comes across as safe. He has more competition for targets but plays with a better QB and offense.

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3 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

Can someone help me rank McLaurin, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley and DJ Chark. All have fairly similar ADP's, and most of these guys are getting drafted to be your WR2. They are all young and I haven't seen a ton of any of them. I think if I had to rank it, I'd have it as: 

1. McLaurin
2. Ridley
3. Chark
4. Brown

Washington has to throw it to someone, who else do they have to throw to? Shouldn't he be a near lock for 10 targets a game? I guess the main worry is, can Haskins get him the ball and can Washington sustain drives on offense. I feel like I want to target one of these guys as my WR2. Likely won't touch Brown, don't like that he is on a run first team. McLaurin and Chark on the go to WR's on their teams, but QB and offense are big questionmarks. Ridley comes across as safe. He has more competition for targets but plays with a better QB and offense.

I would have them ranked:

  1. 1 - McLaurin, 2 - Brown, 3 - Chark, 4 - Ridley
  2. The reason for my rankings is similar to yours but, I will add this:
  3. McLaurin - Coaching staff is good; established as one the best route runners.
  4. Brown - YAC monster and even though the offense is slower paced, they will still need to throw it some.
  5. Chark - Garbage time points are still points 
  6. Ridley - Great offense that likes to throw alot.  So there's enough targets to go around.

 

All four are really close in my ranks and I don't think you can really go wrong with any of them as your WR2.

 

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34 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

Can someone help me rank McLaurin, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley and DJ Chark. All have fairly similar ADP's, and most of these guys are getting drafted to be your WR2. They are all young and I haven't seen a ton of any of them. I think if I had to rank it, I'd have it as: 

1. McLaurin
2. Ridley
3. Chark
4. Brown

Washington has to throw it to someone, who else do they have to throw to? Shouldn't he be a near lock for 10 targets a game? I guess the main worry is, can Haskins get him the ball and can Washington sustain drives on offense. I feel like I want to target one of these guys as my WR2. Likely won't touch Brown, don't like that he is on a run first team. McLaurin and Chark on the go to WR's on their teams, but QB and offense are big questionmarks. Ridley comes across as safe. He has more competition for targets but plays with a better QB and offense.

In my opinion: 

1-Brown: it's true that he still is on a run first team, but he finished as the WR10 last year in standard because he simply was too good even with fewer catches than other WRs. I like the fact that he gets open easily, that he's great in breaking tackles and that he's basically the lone WR option in one of the best teams in the league

2/3-McLaurin/Chark: same as Brown, they are the first (and maybe lone) options in Washington and Jacksonville but I'd rather have a receiver in a stable offense with a decent QB (even though they tend to run more) than a receiver in a messy offense that doesn't look good. I tend to prefer McLaurin because I feel like Washington with Rivera might be better than Jacksonville

4-Ridley: simply because he's not the first option in his team and he might not have the upside of the aforementioned wide receivers since there is still Julio in Atlanta. He had "just" 866 yards last year, and I don't trust Falcons' offense this much for this season

 

By the way, all of them are good targets for being a good WR2, I'd even suggest to take 3 out of them in a 0 wide receivers auction draft

Edited by mrmorell

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I feel like his value is tied to how much Gibson can deliver on his promising talents.

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18 hours ago, LionKid90 said:

Can someone help me rank McLaurin, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley and DJ Chark. All have fairly similar ADP's, and most of these guys are getting drafted to be your WR2. They are all young and I haven't seen a ton of any of them. I think if I had to rank it, I'd have it as: 

1. McLaurin
2. Ridley
3. Chark
4. Brown

Washington has to throw it to someone, who else do they have to throw to? Shouldn't he be a near lock for 10 targets a game? I guess the main worry is, can Haskins get him the ball and can Washington sustain drives on offense. I feel like I want to target one of these guys as my WR2. Likely won't touch Brown, don't like that he is on a run first team. McLaurin and Chark on the go to WR's on their teams, but QB and offense are big questionmarks. Ridley comes across as safe. He has more competition for targets but plays with a better QB and offense.

Brown 1

McLaurin 2

Ridley 3

Chark 4

Brown is the best talent imo with McLaurin close behind

Chark I rate slightly above Ridley as a talent but not by enough to make up for Ridley's superior situation/QB

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