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Le'Veon Bell 2020 Outlook

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5 hours ago, beotos said:

Staying far, far away.

 

Not sure why. And don't just say Gase and Gore...that's lazy analysis. If you draft him as an RB2, he will be quite valuable. In half PPR, he finished 2019 as the RB17...and that was with a terrible season. Positive regression is coming for him for reasons listed above. And I'll add that a better Darnold is better for the Jets offense overall. . 

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gore is non factor. 11 rushes inside the 5 for 0 yds last year, 18 attempt inside the 10 yd line for 4 yds, 25 inside the 20 for 35 yds.

then again he should not of got those touches in the first place.

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I think the price is right with Bell this year in terms of his draft position.  Getting a guy who could put up top 10 numbers in the 4th or 5th round sounds like a steal to me.  The issue is Gase but I think that Bell will be utilized more in the red zone and in the passing game in his 2nd season with the Jets.

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Posted (edited)

How do you guys feel if you got to pair Bell with one of those top 4 RB’s? (CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara)? He should have a safer floor with the receptions he will get, and IF he has comeback as a better player, with the improved o-line, the upside is there. Seems like a unique RB duo that could pay off big time if certain things go right. 

 

I think Darnold is a good QB who will step it up this year, and in a disastrous season with Bell being out of shape, he was still RB 17 in .5: ppr. Nowhere to go but up right? 

Edited by Breesus

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15 minutes ago, Breesus said:

How do you guys feel if you got to pair Bell with one of those top 4 RB’s? (CMC, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara)? He should have a safer floor with the receptions he will get, and IF he has comeback as a better player, with the improved o-line, the upside is there. Seems like a unique RB duo that could pay off big time if certain things go right. 

 

I think Darnold is a good QB who will step it up this year, and in a disastrous season with Bell being out of shape, he was still RB 17 in .5: ppr. Nowhere to go but up right? 

 

I'd absolutely love for Bell to be my RB2 with one of those four guys as my RB1. I mean, he had a disastrous season with a 3.2 ypc and 4 TD, and he still finished as a mid-RB2. I could be way off-base here, but all the signs to me are pointing up for Bell. I'm not saying that he will be an RB1, but it wouldn't shock me to see him finish the season as a top 12 RB this season. 

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18 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Not sure why. And don't just say Gase and Gore...that's lazy analysis. If you draft him as an RB2, he will be quite valuable. In half PPR, he finished 2019 as the RB17...and that was with a terrible season. Positive regression is coming for him for reasons listed above. And I'll add that a better Darnold is better for the Jets offense overall. . 

 

Gase is definitely the #1 reason. While he might have a nice floor, I just don't see Bell's upside in this offense and I much more prefer the WRs in this range.

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9 minutes ago, beotos said:

 

Gase is definitely the #1 reason. While he might have a nice floor, I just don't see Bell's upside in this offense and I much more prefer the WRs in this range.

 

Yeah, it's not lazy analysis if it's what people perceive to be true. 

 

The one thing that can hinder talent more than anything else is pro sports is opportunity, and in the NFL a terrible coach can greatly inhibit that. 

 

Kenyan Drake was an afterthought with Adam Gase then he gets freed and sets Arizona on fire. 

 

This doesn't even factor in that Bell 100% has the ability to just quit if he gets too unhappy with Gase and his usage. 

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Yeah, it's not lazy analysis if it's what people perceive to be true. 

 

The one thing that can hinder talent more than anything else is pro sports is opportunity, and in the NFL a terrible coach can greatly inhibit that. 

 

Kenyan Drake was an afterthought with Adam Gase then he gets freed and sets Arizona on fire. 

 

This doesn't even factor in that Bell 100% has the ability to just quit if he gets too unhappy with Gase and his usage. 

 

It is lazy analysis at this point because people just say "Oh it's Gase" without bothering to acknowledge the improvements made to the OL, the potential progression of Darnold (who at least won't be recovering from mono), the fact that Bell is a major positive regression candidate. I've seen and heard too much of it. The "oh it's Gase" crowd barely wants to acknowledge the moves the GM made to improve the offense, not to mention that Bell is in great shape and the defense will likely be so bad this season that Bell could become a strong checkdown candidate in most games. 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that everyone pointing to Gase is using lazy analysis. Like you, for instance...I respect your stance because you point out his refusal to use Drake. But I would counter that Gase used Bell a lot last year, despite how inefficient he was. 

If I end up being wrong, I'll readily admit it, but I'm seeing a floor of mid RB2 with a ceiling of lower RB1. It's enough for me to feel pretty good about him going into the season...even with Gase as his HC. 

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I didn’t see a lot of the Jets games last season but the one game I do remember was against Cleveland with Darnold out with mono and then Garrett taking out the backup qb they were down to their 3rd string qb. What I saw from Bell was very good. Against a stacked box, he ran elusively and well even though by the end of the game stats didn’t show it. Remember one play where like 5 guys missed him but he only made like 9 yards.
If Darnold can at least improve a little, with hopefully a better o-line I’m cautiously optimistic that Bell can still produce. Would have to be 4th rd onwards as I definitely have quite a few players ahead of him I prefer but does present a high reward high risk pick, similar to James Conner. Some of that risk has been taken out with where he is being drafted this season which is great. Opportunity should be there but certainly some issues could arise if things don’t start well when season kicks off

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

It is lazy analysis at this point because people just say "Oh it's Gase" without bothering to acknowledge the improvements made to the OL, the potential progression of Darnold (who at least won't be recovering from mono), the fact that Bell is a major positive regression candidate. I've seen and heard too much of it. The "oh it's Gase" crowd barely wants to acknowledge the moves the GM made to improve the offense, not to mention that Bell is in great shape and the defense will likely be so bad this season that Bell could become a strong checkdown candidate in most games. 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that everyone pointing to Gase is using lazy analysis. Like you, for instance...I respect your stance because you point out his refusal to use Drake. But I would counter that Gase used Bell a lot last year, despite how inefficient he was. 

If I end up being wrong, I'll readily admit it, but I'm seeing a floor of mid RB2 with a ceiling of lower RB1. It's enough for me to feel pretty good about him going into the season...even with Gase as his HC. 

 

I've made the "Oh it's Gase" mistake and since I have avoided like the plague and have been very happy with the results.

 

I respect everyone's decision to acknowlege any and every change made, but as for me, I start at the top and when I can NOT check that box, I just move along and it's worked out well for the most part.  I've done the same w/ BB over the years too.

 

Lev Bell was kind of a bum under Gase last year with a lot of touches.  His Yards per averages were atrocious on both the ground and the air.  The Jets would have to become the Chiefs for me to justify LBell and they just aren't no matter how many improvements/changes they do and how much natural progression Sam Darnold makes when he's not kissing teenagers and catching Mono.

 

I also take note that the RB they drafted is viewed by scouts almost exclusively as a passing down back.  If Lev Bell were to lose his receptions, he no longer has a ceiling for me, he is exclusively glued to the floor.  I only play PPR, and 66 receptions is value even though he doesn't do much with it, but you cut that in half (and the poor yardage to boot) and you've got a RB3 for the price of a RB2 that has failed to complete or been suspended (or even quit before starting) 4/6 seasons.  

 

I'll take the risks of David Johnson 8 picks later every time, for better or worse.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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Best to avoid both Bell and David Johnson, my man @Dreams And Dwightmares.

Their time has passed.  This ain't 2016 any longer.  

Get someone younger, healthier, and hungrier.

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12 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I've made the "Oh it's Gase" mistake and since I have avoided like the plague and have been very happy with the results.

 

I respect everyone's decision to acknowlege any and every change made, but as for me, I start at the top and when I can NOT check that box, I just move along and it's worked out well for the most part.  I've done the same w/ BB over the years too.

 

Lev Bell was kind of a bum under Gase last year with a lot of touches.  His Yards per averages were atrocious on both the ground and the air.  The Jets would have to become the Chiefs for me to justify LBell and they just aren't no matter how many improvements/changes they do and how much natural progression Sam Darnold makes when he's not kissing teenagers and catching Mono.

 

I also take note that the RB they drafted is viewed by scouts almost exclusively as a passing down back.  If Lev Bell were to lose his receptions, he no longer has a ceiling for me, he is exclusively glued to the floor.  I only play PPR, and 66 receptions is value even though he doesn't do much with it, but you cut that in half (and the poor yardage to boot) and you've got a RB3 for the price of a RB2 that has failed to complete or been suspended (or even quit before starting) 4/6 seasons.  

 

I'll take the risks of David Johnson 8 picks later every time, for better or worse.

 

I don't think DJ is going 8 picks later than Bell. And I also think it's a big leap to suggest that his receptions will be cut in half. I have zero concern about Perine taking time away from Bell. I watched him play at Florida many times, and he's just not that good. And yeah, I get that he was atrocious last year...I've acknowledged that several times. But even with that atrociousness, he was the RB17 in half PPR (I think RB16 in PPR?), and it's not like he's being drafted as an RB1 or anything. 

I don't get the hyperbole in your statement that they'd have to become the Chiefs for you to think about Bell. They don't need to become the Chiefs...they just need to show offensive improvement. Personally, I believe they will. And if I can get Bell as my 2nd RB or 3rd RB, I'll happily take that. 

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Best to avoid both Bell and David Johnson, my man @Dreams And Dwightmares.

Their time has passed.  This ain't 2016 any longer.  

Get someone younger, healthier, and hungrier.

 

I'm glad I could entertain you, but I'm not sure what you find so humorous. Bell and DJ will both be nice RB2s this year for their owners, assuming they stay healthy. If you don't believe that, then that's fine. 

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Bell and DJ will both be busts for those fantasy owners, like you, who are chasing their former glory.

I find it humorous that Le'Veon Bell's supporters will simply never let it go.  I tried to warn everyone off last year, but Bell still had a late-1st-round ADP.

And anyone who picked Bell in the first round hopefully nailed all their other picks, otherwise their team went nowhere.

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I'm glad I could entertain you, but I'm not sure what you find so humorous. Bell and DJ will both be nice RB2s this year for their owners, assuming they stay healthy. If you don't believe that, then that's fine. 

I like Bell better than David Johnson this year.  Depending on whether Adam Gase utilizes him better in the red zone, I think that Bell has a chance to re-enter the top 10 this year in his second season with the Jets.  I would take a flier on Johnson as my rb3 in the Texans offense but not as a rb2.

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3 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I like Bell better than David Johnson this year.  Depending on whether Adam Gase utilizes him better in the red zone, I think that Bell has a chance to re-enter the top 10 this year in his second season with the Jets.  I would take a flier on Johnson as my rb3 in the Texans offense but not as a rb2.

 

Too many vacated targets in Houston for DJ not to get a sizeable portion of them, which is one reason why I like him. And if Carlos Hyde can rush for 1000 with the Texans, DJ can, too, except he brings the pass-catching element without having to be replaced by Duke. The FantasyFootballers podcast mentions regularly that the stats show RBs to be the biggest winner when teams lose a lot of targets from one year to the next. 

So I like DJ to be an RB2 this year, just like I do Bell. I'm at the point with Bell, though, that someone either believes he can improve this year or believes he'll become irrelevant. The only thing that will convince either side is his performance this year, and I'm happy to just let it come at this point. Let's see what he does this year...if there even is a "this year". Lol. 

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1 hour ago, Black_Panther said:

I didn’t see a lot of the Jets games last season but the one game I do remember was against Cleveland with Darnold out with mono and then Garrett taking out the backup qb they were down to their 3rd string qb. What I saw from Bell was very good. Against a stacked box, he ran elusively and well even though by the end of the game stats didn’t show it. Remember one play where like 5 guys missed him but he only made like 9 yards.
If Darnold can at least improve a little, with hopefully a better o-line I’m cautiously optimistic that Bell can still produce. Would have to be 4th rd onwards as I definitely have quite a few players ahead of him I prefer but does present a high reward high risk pick, similar to James Conner. Some of that risk has been taken out with where he is being drafted this season which is great. Opportunity should be there but certainly some issues could arise if things don’t start well when season kicks off

See that’s where I’m stuck. All the signs are pointing up for Bell, but I pick in the top 3. So if I want him I’ll have to pull the trigger in the 20’s. It’s tough to do that seeing great proven wr’s like Kenny G, Amari, DJ Moore there.

Thats a big investment, but I’m starting to like the idea 

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NFL is going to happen, I am convinced of that now.  Probably without spectators, at least at first, which is going to be odd.

As for Bell, he was last good several years ago, behind an elite Steelers O-line and with a hall of fame QB and a high-flying passing offense with some of the best WRs in the NFL to take pressure off of him.

To say that Bell will have none of those things going for him in 2020 is an understatement.  Gase's offenses in Miami and New York have consistently been amongst the bottom feeders in plays run, yards gained, and points scored.

That's leaving aside the fact that Gase easily gets down on his skill position players, especially if they don't run on the path exactly as designed.

Gore has no stand-alone value, but he managed to kill Drake's value when both played for Gase last.

To say Bell has a lot of red flags on him is like saying an aircraft carrier has a lot of planes on it.  After 2020 concludes, try to find Bell's "production" at the bottom of the ocean.

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Bottom of the ocean? Lol. He was inefficient as he could be in 2019 and still finished as the RB17 in half PPR. He didn't have any of that stuff he had in Pittsburgh and still finished as a mid-RB2. He had as many or more red flags...and still finished as a mid-RB2. Bell will be at least an RB2. Probably unspectacular and not "sexy", but an RB2 nonetheless. 

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Best to avoid both Bell and David Johnson, my man @Dreams And Dwightmares.

Their time has passed.  This ain't 2016 any longer.  

Get someone younger, healthier, and hungrier.

19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Gore has no stand-alone value, but he managed to kill Drake's value when both played for Gase last.

To say Bell has a lot of red flags on him is like saying an aircraft carrier has a lot of planes on it.  After 2020 concludes, try to find Bell's "production" at the bottom of the ocean.

So which is it? Gore is also 5 years older now at 37 & he’s still a major threat but Bell is 27, took 1 year off, is now in probably the best condition of anyone I’ve ever heard of, & he won’t be productive? Sure, he had a bad year last year. But the team around him, especially the o-line, was lousy & he still had over 60 catches. Bell will still be a RB2 this year, whether you want to believe it or not

Edited by lvsaint429
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Bottom of the ocean? Lol. He was inefficient as he could be in 2019 and still finished as the RB17 in half PPR. He didn't have any of that stuff he had in Pittsburgh and still finished as a mid-RB2. He had as many or more red flags...and still finished as a mid-RB2. Bell will be at least an RB2. Probably unspectacular and not "sexy", but an RB2 nonetheless. 

I'm looking for RB1 upside in the 4th round which I don't see with Bell because the offense is more likely to be a dumpster fire than efficient. Give me Jonathan Taylor all day if he's there... or I'm going WR.

Edited by beotos
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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

NFL is going to happen, I am convinced of that now.  Probably without spectators, at least at first, which is going to be odd.

As for Bell, he was last good several years ago, behind an elite Steelers O-line and with a hall of fame QB and a high-flying passing offense with some of the best WRs in the NFL to take pressure off of him.

To say that Bell will have none of those things going for him in 2020 is an understatement.  Gase's offenses in Miami and New York have consistently been amongst the bottom feeders in plays run, yards gained, and points scored.

That's leaving aside the fact that Gase easily gets down on his skill position players, especially if they don't run on the path exactly as designed.

Gore has no stand-alone value, but he managed to kill Drake's value when both played for Gase last.

To say Bell has a lot of red flags on him is like saying an aircraft carrier has a lot of planes on it.  After 2020 concludes, try to find Bell's "production" at the bottom of the ocean.

He had the worst possible scenarios play out last year and was still RB 17 in that dumpster fire. He’s in better shape this year, his coach who he hasn’t gotten along with has actually stated how impressed he is with his work ethic this off-season. He’s guaranteed to have 250-300 touches, on an improved o-line and will actually have Darnold all year. Their defense is going to take a major step back, and he is their primary receiving back (and is a damn good one).

 

There is risk, but there is a lot of upside too. And everything you stated about him being done and Gase being awful, all that already happened last year and he was still a mid RB2.

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9 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

So which is it? Gore is also 5 years older now at 37 & he’s still a major threat but Bell is 27, took 1 year off, is now in probably the best condition of anyone I’ve ever heard of, & he won’t be productive? Sure, he had a bad year last year. But the team around him, especially the o-line, was lousy & he still had over 60 catches. Bell will still be a RB2 this year, whether you want to believe it or not

Bell turned 28 in February, so he will be 29 by the time the Superbowl month rolls along this season, although the Jets season will long be over by then, of course.

Of greater concern is the rather extensive wear and tear Bell has endured during his career, including multiple 350+ touch seasons.  And his situation is about the same or worse than 2019.  The Jets O-line may be marginally improved (from very bad), but now Gore has been added.

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8 minutes ago, Breesus said:

He had the worst possible scenarios play out last year and was still RB 17 in that dumpster fire. He’s in better shape this year, his coach who he hasn’t gotten along with has actually stated how impressed he is with his work ethic this off-season. He’s guaranteed to have 250-300 touches, on an improved o-line and will actually have Darnold all year. Their defense is going to take a major step back, and he is their primary receiving back (and is a damn good one).

 

There is risk, but there is a lot of upside too. And everything you stated about him being done and Gase being awful, all that already happened last year and he was still a mid RB2.

The Jests will be a dumpster fire once again in 2020.  I expect Bell to have a worse season than his 2019 season, which was bad considering his ADP.  And I think the statement by Gase that Bell is in "phenomenal shape" can be added to $5.75 and used to purchase a carmel machiatto.  Coaches often say things of this nature during the offseason, and it means very little.

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21 minutes ago, beotos said:

I'm looking for RB1 upside in the 4th round which I don't see with Bell because the offense is more likely to be a dumpster fire than efficient. Give me Jonathan Taylor all day if he's there... or I'm going WR.

 

If you're looking for RB1 upside for 2020, then you're not taking Taylor over Bell. If you do, that's just going for new and shiny over old and boring. I believe the chances of finishing RB1 are higher for Bell than they are for Taylor, who is starting out in a timeshare and will not be the passing down back. 

 

11 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bell turned 28 in February, so he will be 29 by the time the Superbowl month rolls along this season, although the Jets season will long be over by then, of course.

Of greater concern is the rather extensive wear and tear Bell has endured during his career, including multiple 350+ touch seasons.  And his situation is about the same or worse than 2019.  The Jets O-line may be marginally improved (from very bad), but now Gore has been added.

 

Same or worse than 2019? That just isn't true. 

You convinced me last year when you were making the "coach" argument against OJ, but I can't ride with you on this one. I'm not saying Bell will be top 5 by any means, but I am saying he'll be a safe RB2, at the very least (again, assuming health). And on the one team on which I have him, he's my RB3. 

Btw, my youngest son is 12 and said to tell you he likes your screen name. He loves sharks and hopes to one day be a marine biologist and study sharks. Lol. 

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