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TonyTheTigersFan

Early and Mid Round Starting Pitchers to Target

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What pitchers in the early-to-mid rounds do you think are the best values to target in single-year leagues? 

It just seems to me like this year there are more question marks than ever before with the top 20 starting pitchers.  Pitchers like Verlander and Scherzer are getting up there in age.  There's also a bunch of early round pitchers like Flaherty, Buehler, Paddack, Giolito, and Castillo that have only had one good full year each.  Snell and Nola were good in 2018, but declined significantly last year.  Sale seems like a ticking time bomb with his elbow, Strasburg and Darvish and Thor have always been injury risks, Kershaw is getting worse every year even though he isn't that old yet.   I think Cole will still be good, but he is going to a far worse ballpark for pitchers and a high-pressure environment where not everyone succeeds and is now costing a first round pick.  I think deGrom might be the safest pick but is it worth reaching for him at the end of the first round?

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Frankie montas

Brandon woodruff

Andrew heaney

Carlos Carrasco

 

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Woodruff and Heaney I like also, a few other names to consider are Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, and Jose Berrios.  All 3 should pitch around 200 innings with good K's and better than average ERA's/WHIP.  About as reliable as SP can get after the top 10 are gone.  The key is innings pitched.  These guys will not be innings limited

Edited by TheTruth024
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I forgot zac gallen

Why the heck Marlins traded Zac for jazz is strange

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Just now, HOOTIE said:

I forgot zac gallen

 

Its a redraft league.  So there is a great chance Gallen wont pitch much past 160 innings.  The innings he does pitch should be very good though, but expect a learning curve over an almost full season

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8 hours ago, TheTruth024 said:

Woodruff and Heaney I like also, a few other names to consider are Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, and Jose Berrios.  All 3 should pitch around 200 innings with good K's and better than average ERA's/WHIP.  About as reliable as SP can get after the top 10 are gone.  The key is innings pitched.  These guys will not be innings limited

 

What early-round pitchers, if any, would you target?  Would you reach for someone like deGrom?

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8 hours ago, TheTruth024 said:

 

Its a redraft league.  So there is a great chance Gallen wont pitch much past 160 innings.  The innings he does pitch should be very good though, but expect a learning curve over an almost full season

Gallen threw 171 IP across two levels last year.  There's no reason he can't repeat those totals, barring injury

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I've only done one mock so far -- the current RW forums mock -- and I found myself passing on the early round SPs because of the inflated prices.  I understand the idea of investing heavily in an ace for the 200+ IPs of elite ratios and Ks, but I read a state somewhere that said more than half of the guys who hit the 200 IP threshold in a year don't repeat the following year, so unless my draft position is such that I think Cole or Verlander are the best player on the board, I'm going to hang back and grab SPs after the first 3 rounds as I did in this mock.

Right now I've got Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, and Tyler Glasnow.  Each of them has warts, each of them has risk, but I feel pretty confident that one of them will be a fantasy ace this year, or at least two of them can provide a good base of stats to build on.  If one washes out, I'm okay.  If I'd invested in Verlander or Cole and they get hurt or don't perform like they did last season, that's hard to recover from.

Other guys on the board right now in the 7th that I'm eyeing for the middle rounds are Carrasco, Woodruff, Fried, Ryu, Price, and Wheeler.

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6 hours ago, TonyTheTigersFan said:

 

What early-round pitchers, if any, would you target?  Would you reach for someone like deGrom?

I would reach for Buehler, Snell, Glasnow.

 

Advice on the later rounds?

 

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