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Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

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5 hours ago, fantasymad said:

He might be a great buy low or a sell high. Wonder which one lol.

 

Yep depends on a few factors. Are the Ravens or more importantly Lamar in angry mode and start running up the score like last year for the rest of their easy schedule? Or are they content just winning off their defense, experimenting, and figuring out their 3 headed RB committee going forward. Unfortunately, I'm leaning towards the latter, but you never know. Lamar seems like a guy with an ego that definitely wants the validation and MVP talk (I mean who doesn't as a QB1), and all the media chatter about him sucking and the offense sucking might launch him into overdrive going forward.

Maybe he's under stricter orders not to risk his legs on bad teams this year, though he claims otherwise.

Edited by harck

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Might be a good strategy to try and move to the Dak owner if you want to unload him right now.  That’s my plan. 

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I don't like the sound of the latest blurb. He sounds frustrated. Can't run like he wants to because of the knee, and he's really struggling to complete passes with the adjustments defenses have made. 

Not exactly breaking news, but there is zero chance IMO that he picks it up moving forward. I'd definitely be shopping him if I had a capable backup. 

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4 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I don't like the sound of the latest blurb. He sounds frustrated. Can't run like he wants to because of the knee, and he's really struggling to complete passes with the adjustments defenses have made. 

Not exactly breaking news, but there is zero chance IMO that he picks it up moving forward. I'd definitely be shopping him if I had a capable backup. 

 

Zero chance that he picks it up? The only way there's zero chance is if he doesn't play another game.

 

I'd argue he's more likely to pick it up than not.

Edited by Deke

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32 minutes ago, Deke said:

Zero chance that he picks it up? The only way there's zero chance is if he doesn't play another game.

I'd argue he's more likely to pick it up than not.

What have we seen that inspires confidence moving forward? Defenses are scheming him differently, he's struggling with it, his knee is clearly an issue, he couldn't produce in cupcake matchups, and he couldn't produce in what would've been a shootout had he not put up a complete dud. There's just zero evidence to suggest positive regression. This seems to be a negative slide that will only continue, my guess is with injury. 

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52 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I don't like the sound of the latest blurb. He sounds frustrated. Can't run like he wants to because of the knee, and he's really struggling to complete passes with the adjustments defenses have made. 

Not exactly breaking news, but there is zero chance IMO that he picks it up moving forward. I'd definitely be shopping him if I had a capable backup. 

100% agree. This is essentially the nail in the coffin for anyone expecting consistent 2019 fantasy production. He may have some plus games, but I definitely don't like the sound of this, Just in case someone missed it...

Quote
  • Ravens QB Lamar Jackson said the team's offense is "fine" despite his decreased rushing attempts this season. 

    Baltimore's offense ranks 24th in the league through five weeks, one year after finishing as the NFL's No. 2 offense. Jackson, meanwhile, is the QB11 in fantasy football. He's averaging a career-low 8.2 rushing attempts per game after running the ball twice in Baltimore's Week 5 blowout win over the Bengals. ESPN's Jamison Hensley said Jackson's "lack of rushing last game can be attributed to a sore knee," though it's unclear how long the knee has bothered him, or how limiting the injury is. He's on pace for 80 designed runs this season -- a steep drop from last year's 116. "As the season goes on, we’re going to see if we need to [run more]. Coach is going to adjust," Jackson said. "Right now, we’re doing perfectly fine without me running so much." Fantasy managers should continue plugging and playing Jackson with hopes that his rushing production picks up. 

    SOURCE: ESPN
    Oct 15, 2020, 8:40 AM ET
     
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52 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I don't like the sound of the latest blurb. He sounds frustrated. Can't run like he wants to because of the knee, and he's really struggling to complete passes with the adjustments defenses have made. 

Not exactly breaking news, but there is zero chance IMO that he picks it up moving forward. I'd definitely be shopping him if I had a capable backup. 

Where do you interpret frustration? I doubt he really cares about running, if he doesn't need to for the team to win. The bigger issue here is some teams aren't pushing the Ravens and forcing them to fully utilize Jackson. There are plenty of opportunities coming up for that though. He's not going to be MVP this season, but the sky also isn't falling

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14 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Where do you interpret frustration? I doubt he really cares about running, if he doesn't need to for the team to win. The bigger issue here is some teams aren't pushing the Ravens and forcing them to fully utilize Jackson. There are plenty of opportunities coming up for that though. He's not going to be MVP this season, but the sky also isn't falling

He didn't put up all-time numbers last year because teams were "pushing him", it was simply because the offense was that dominant. KC certainly pushed them and Lamar looked like an absolute bum. 

The sky falling really comes down to your take on the term. Is he gonna get benched for RGIII, no. But is he gonna be a QB2 while struggling with the knee, press more because the offense is struggling, and subsequently hurt the knee further? I'd say that's quite possible. 

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15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He didn't put up all-time numbers last year because teams were "pushing him", it was simply because the offense was that dominant. KC certainly pushed them and Lamar looked like an absolute bum. 

The sky falling really comes down to your take on the term. Is he gonna get benched for RGIII, no. But is he gonna be a QB2 while struggling with the knee, press more because the offense is struggling, and subsequently hurt the knee further? I'd say that's quite possible. 

First off, what has changed with their "dominant" offense? Do you really think Lamar forgot how to pass, or defensive coordinators were confounded for 3 months last year but finally cracked the code this offseason? 

Second, it definitely hurts playing against horrible teams. They're probably not going to run Lamar as much if the game's out of hand, especially if he's got a sore knee. The KC game wasn't his best but I'm completely throwing the Cincy game out the window because there was no reason for Baltimore to ask Lamar to do anything.

Yes, QB2(#13-24) the rest of the season would be close to sky is falling in fantasy and I don't see that happening at all.

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52 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

What have we seen that inspires confidence moving forward? Defenses are scheming him differently, he's struggling with it, his knee is clearly an issue, he couldn't produce in cupcake matchups, and he couldn't produce in what would've been a shootout had he not put up a complete dud. There's just zero evidence to suggest positive regression. This seems to be a negative slide that will only continue, my guess is with injury. 

 

He's had 2 great games (from a fantasy perspective), and in 2 of the other 3, he hasn't needed to produce. The one dud is a dud and that happens to every QB. I'm betting (hoping) that he will need to produce in future games. Philly this week and NYG in week 16 look like his only cupcake matches moving forward. I think it remains to be seen what the rushing looks like. Before last week, his attempts were 7, 16, 9, and 7. 7 is really all he needs to have a good rushing day. I have hope. I don't have anything concrete to say he will get better, except he can't really get worse.

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The 5 games after the bye are pretty rough— Steelers, Indy, Pats, Titans, Steelers. If you can weather that storm though the schedule opens up nicely. Just have to hope you’re still in it and the games are competitive when the matchup is easier. 
 

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10 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I mean, did he ever really learn how?

 

He definitely has accuracy issues at times, but he threw for 36 TD's last season. Here's some current NFL QB's who have never thrown for 36+ TD's in a season:

 

Russell Wilson

Dak Prescott

Josh Allen

Deshaun Watson

Derek Carr

Gardner Minshew

Jared Goff

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Kyler Murray

Philip Rivers

Teddy Bridgewater

Carson Wentz

Kirk Cousins

Daniel Jones

Matthew Stafford

Ben Roethlisberger

Ryan Tannehill

Baker Mayfield

Dwayne Haskins

Sam Darnold

Cam Newton

Nick Foles

Nick Mullens

Mitchell Trubisky

Jimmy Garoppolo

Drew Lock

Joe Flacco

Tyrod Taylor

Brian Hoyer

Andy Dalton

Kyle Allen

Alex Smith

Jacoby Brissett

 

So while I agree he definitely isn't the same guy without a threat of running, pretending that he can't throw the ball at all is a little disingenuous.

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He didn't put up all-time numbers last year because teams were "pushing him", it was simply because the offense was that dominant. KC certainly pushed them and Lamar looked like an absolute bum. 

The sky falling really comes down to your take on the term. Is he gonna get benched for RGIII, no. But is he gonna be a QB2 while struggling with the knee, press more because the offense is struggling, and subsequently hurt the knee further? I'd say that's quite possible. 

 

Eh this really isn't true. Lamar's rushing production took a steep incline once Baltimore started playing tougher teams about mid way through the year. If you rewind to about a year ago Baltimore was 3-2 and had just gotten blown out by Cleveland, and they really should've lost against the Steelers if Marlon Humprey hadn't punched a ball loose in overtime. 

 

I think people remember that explosion game against Miami week 1 which was basically a scrimmage, and then the MVP run where he blitzed the league from the New England prime time game forward. Baltimore's offense was kinda struggling in the middle of those two games and he was really only playing okay at points and just outright bad at others (the Steelers game is still the worst game of his career in my opinion). 

 

I also thinks it's funny because the narrative this whole time was that Lamar needs to run less because "running QBs don't last" and now he's being criticized for not running enough. 

Edited by Deuce1042

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38 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

He definitely has accuracy issues at times, but he threw for 36 TD's last season. Here's some current NFL QB's who have never thrown for 36+ TD's in a season:

 

Russell Wilson

Dak Prescott

Josh Allen

Deshaun Watson

Derek Carr

Gardner Minshew

Jared Goff

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Kyler Murray

Philip Rivers

Teddy Bridgewater

Carson Wentz

Kirk Cousins

Daniel Jones

Matthew Stafford

Ben Roethlisberger

Ryan Tannehill

Baker Mayfield

Dwayne Haskins

Sam Darnold

Cam Newton

Nick Foles

Nick Mullens

Mitchell Trubisky

Jimmy Garoppolo

Drew Lock

Joe Flacco

Tyrod Taylor

Brian Hoyer

Andy Dalton

Kyle Allen

Alex Smith

Jacoby Brissett

 

So while I agree he definitely isn't the same guy without a threat of running, pretending that he can't throw the ball at all is a little disingenuous.

 

Not only is it disingenuous, defensive coordinators and his contemporaries in the league don't even think that. Aaron Rodgers on the Pat McAfee show just the other day said that Lamar could always sling the ball. His mechanics just sucked in college (and I think there have been a lot of timing issues this year, just getting the ball out too late). 

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Jackson throws one of the prettiest, most perfectly-spiraling balls you will see. He generates an incredible amount of velocity simply with his wrist, and seems to prefer to just flick the ball rather than anything close to Manning-form or whatever. It's sorta incredible, though also understandable why that wouldn't be preferred. But he's always shown the ability to be an incredibly accurate and effective passer at all levels of the field, just perhaps not the consistency. His aim has seemed worse to me this season, but perhaps that's merely due to expectations and new defensive approaches. Either way, I think anyone who has really watched him play shouldn't be seriously questioning his passing capabilities by now. Five or six throws go differently this season and his whole statline looks totally different.

I own Jackson and reached on him early last season, and I'm struggling with how to handle him going forward. I have been halfway through proposing multiple trades before calming down and realizing his floor is probably what we're seeing right now. I chased him for the upside and this is what it looks like when that's not paying out, but I haven't seen anything fundamentally indicating that it won't payout next week, or every week after.

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2 hours ago, owenmills said:

... the sky also isn't falling

 

The sky may not be falling, but the clouds are hanging low and heavy.  If I had any shares here, I'd be pessimistic.  That doesn't mean he couldn't be a buy at the right price but I don't think I see him returning his draft day price (which was overall QB1 or QB2 right behind Mahomes).  

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5 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

Not only is it disingenuous, defensive coordinators and his contemporaries in the league don't even think that. Aaron Rodgers on the Pat McAfee show just the other day said that Lamar could always sling the ball. His mechanics just sucked in college (and I think there have been a lot of timing issues this year, just getting the ball out too late). 

Throwing a football is only like 1/5th of being an accurate quarterback in the NFL.  Reading a defense, anticipation, timing with your WRs, manipulating the defense, good mechanics.  All of those play a part.  I would say Lamar needs improvement in almost all of those facets.

In my opinion, Lamar has had success because he has great pocket awareness.  He senses the rush, and is able to move around either by shifting in the pocket or rolling out with his elite athleticism, which allows time for his receivers to break coverage, and then complete the pass.  If you take away his mobility, his threat to run, then I personally think he is going to struggle.

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6 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

I don't think I see him returning his draft day price (which was overall QB1 or QB2 right behind Mahomes).  

Yeah, me neither. Coming to terms with it, and may explore options if he has a big game. 

There's worse scenarios than ending up with a guy whose floor is somewhere around 20-25 points.

 

edit: I suppose his floor is technically the KC game, which falls below that range. If he gives us several of those back-to-back, it's probably time to panic. 

Edited by Macgregor

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1 minute ago, TTo34 said:

In my opinion, Lamar has had success because he has great pocket awareness.  He senses the rush, and is able to move around either by shifting in the pocket or rolling out with his elite athleticism, which allows time for his receivers to break coverage, and then complete the pass.  If you take away his mobility, his threat to run, then I personally think he is going to struggle.

Agreed. 

It's seemed to me like they are more committed to the pass than the run this year, and perhaps they shouldn't be. I don't know if that's a function of who's healthy or something, but so much of what Jackson's capable of doing in that offense is built around the running game. Symbiotically, even. I think they will try to expand and lean into the rushing attack going forward, perhaps opening up Dobbins' role, and while that might not show immediate payoffs on Jackson's statline, I think it's a fundamentally necessary thing in order for him to consistently put up 30+ games.

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I think they are still about the run, just not the Lamar run. I don't think they want to show all his tricks for the playoffs, and during the year they want to establish a threatening RB/passing game to whip out the full arsenal of Lamar runs during the playoffs. They know their schedule is cake. They know their defense is elite. No need to exert Lamar early in the season, last year was a statement year, this year is their championship year.

He kept insisting coming into the season that he won't be running as much, and I do think that was something they emphasized in the off-season. Run if he needs to, but I think they don't want all of his runs on tape like last year. Whip it out for the playoffs as icing, not the foundation of the offense.

Edited by harck

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1 hour ago, vercrazy said:

So while I agree he definitely isn't the same guy without a threat of running, pretending that he can't throw the ball at all is a little disingenuous.

My comment was a bit hyperbolic. He's a serviceable passer at times, but I think people are kidding themselves if they think he's ever going to completely reinvent himself as a passer. I think that list you provided actually helps make my point. For just about every superstar or potential superstar on that that that list, there's an almost equal number of busts or guys that just never lived up to their initial hype.

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19 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

Jackson throws one of the prettiest, most perfectly-spiraling balls you will see. He generates an incredible amount of velocity simply with his wrist, and seems to prefer to just flick the ball rather than anything close to Manning-form or whatever. It's sorta incredible, though also understandable why that wouldn't be preferred. But he's always shown the ability to be an incredibly accurate and effective passer at all levels of the field, just perhaps not the consistency. His aim has seemed worse to me this season, but perhaps that's merely due to expectations and new defensive approaches. Either way, I think anyone who has really watched him play shouldn't be seriously questioning his passing capabilities by now. Five or six throws go differently this season and his whole statline looks totally different.

I own Jackson and reached on him early last season, and I'm struggling with how to handle him going forward. I have been halfway through proposing multiple trades before calming down and realizing his floor is probably what we're seeing right now. I chased him for the upside and this is what it looks like when that's not paying out, but I haven't seen anything fundamentally indicating that it won't payout next week, or every week after.

 

The problem though is that sometimes "flicking" the ball can lead to some issues on those fade routes outside the numbers that require a lot of touch. I think he was a little better at throwing that ball in college. When the ball leaves his hands it's on a rope going 1000 MPH. He needs to put more air under the ball to give guys like Hollywood a chance to run under it. It's less of an issue over the middle of the field but you see it deep down the field outside the numbers when he needs to throw it over the top of the defense. 

 

It's kinda frustrating to watch too because the ball is going to the right spot, put more air under it. Then you'll start seeing the big plays. If he completes about three of those deep balls this year that go for touchdowns, people wouldn't be in panic mode right now. 

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27 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Throwing a football is only like 1/5th of being an accurate quarterback in the NFL.  Reading a defense, anticipation, timing with your WRs, manipulating the defense, good mechanics.  All of those play a part.  I would say Lamar needs improvement in almost all of those facets.

In my opinion, Lamar has had success because he has great pocket awareness.  He senses the rush, and is able to move around either by shifting in the pocket or rolling out with his elite athleticism, which allows time for his receivers to break coverage, and then complete the pass.  If you take away his mobility, his threat to run, then I personally think he is going to struggle.

 

He lead the league in TD passes from the pocket last season. Historically he's less accurate on the run than he is standing in the pocket. It's also hard to be one of the better red zone QBs in the NFL (which btw is still true this year) if you can't throw with anticipation and don't get the ball out fast enough. 

 

I do agree that he needs to get better at those things, but really every QB does. He *consistently* had an issue with post snap confirmation last Sunday and was throwing balls right to linebackers (lucky he only got picked once). I don't think he'd ever seen those delayed coverages before and it really fooled him. 

Edited by Deuce1042

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This is a personal thing too but I don't really associate "timing" with "accuracy". Accuracy for me is whether you throw a ball to the "right spot" as opposed to throwing it too late or too early. In college he legit had accuracy inconsistencies. Like he got the ball out on time and it just sailed over a receiver's head. 

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