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Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

He lead the league in TD passes from the pocket last season. Historically he's less accurate on the run than he is standing in the pocket. 

Yes, he did.  In the same article, quotes below from Harbags.

https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/lamar-jackson-in-the-pocket

"Lamar, last year, was one of the best pocket passers in the league statistically," Harbaugh said. "That's because he made a big jump [from his rookie year] and also because of all the other things he's able to do makes the defense more honest. They just can't tee off and run a bunch of pass-blitzes at him.

"We should have guys more open and we should have bigger plays and we should create more opportunities in the passing game because of that run game. We're not going to scrap the run game. But we're not going to become a conventional offense. That's the last thing we're going to do."

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54 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

I also thinks it's funny because the narrative this whole time was that Lamar needs to run less because "running QBs don't last" and now he's being criticized for not running enough. 

I think that's just fantasy versus real football. 

I get what you're saying about last year, our memories often aren't completely accurate, but last year his good weeks were better and his bad weeks weren't nearly as bad. 

I'm not saying we're there yet, but you take his legs away and he's out of the league within two years. 

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5 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Yes, he did.  In the same article, quotes below from Harbags.

https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/lamar-jackson-in-the-pocket

"Lamar, last year, was one of the best pocket passers in the league statistically," Harbaugh said. "That's because he made a big jump [from his rookie year] and also because of all the other things he's able to do makes the defense more honest. They just can't tee off and run a bunch of pass-blitzes at him.

"We should have guys more open and we should have bigger plays and we should create more opportunities in the passing game because of that run game. We're not going to scrap the run game. But we're not going to become a conventional offense. That's the last thing we're going to do."

I agree with this. 

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4 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

Yes, he did.  In the same article, quotes below from Harbags.

https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/lamar-jackson-in-the-pocket

"Lamar, last year, was one of the best pocket passers in the league statistically," Harbaugh said. "That's because he made a big jump [from his rookie year] and also because of all the other things he's able to do makes the defense more honest. They just can't tee off and run a bunch of pass-blitzes at him.

The bolded part is so key. People who say he's not a bad passer while pointing to his pocket passing stats fail to mention/realize that those throws are MUCH easier when a defense has to worry about a very good running game AND the best running QB of all-time. You make him pass from the pocket with the defensive looks a guy like say Rivers sees, and Lamar would look like, well, Rivers. 

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16 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I think that's just fantasy versus real football. 

I get what you're saying about last year, our memories often aren't completely accurate, but last year his good weeks were better and his bad weeks weren't nearly as bad. 

I'm not saying we're there yet, but you take his legs away and he's out of the league within two years. 

 

Yeah that's true but, Aaron Rodgers has had awful outings before. He three for 77 yards and no TDs against a great Denver defense once. Brady threw four picks on 50% completion percentage against Buffalo once and lost 31-0. Peyton had a 6 interception game once. Mahomes REALLY has only been GREAT in one game this year compared to his usual standard. Josh Allen has had terrible games before. The NFL's hard and stinkers like that happen. Big Ben has had horrific performances, remember that Jaguars game a few years ago when they lost by 20 and he threw a bunch of interceptions? Russell Wilson has had terrible games. 

 

I think it's a little different for Lamar because he's always been under microscope (so was Peyton) and there's the recency bias factor. He threw 5 interceptions in two games last year. Two in a blowout loss to Cleveland and three against Pitt in a game they should've lost. And they played two bad teams in Arizona and Cincy and beat them in games that shouldn't have been that close but were. I think Baltimore and Lamar are fine. I was expecting statistical regression this year because no one has back to back historic years. Those guys on the other side of the ball get paid too. 

 

I still think they need to trade for a wide receiver. 

Edited by Deuce1042

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3 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

Yeah that's true but, Aaron Rodgers has had awful outings before. He three for 77 yards and no TDs against a great Denver defense once. Brady threw four picks on 50% completion percentage against Buffalo once and lost 31-0. Peyton had a 6 interception game once. Mahomes REALLY has only been GREAT in one game this year compared to his usual standard. Josh Allen has had terrible games before. The NFL's hard and stinkers like that happen. Big Ben has had horrific performances, remember that Jaguars game a few years ago when they lost by 20 and he threw a bunch of interceptions? Russell Wilson has had terrible games. 

 

I think it's a little different for Lamar because he's always been under microscope (so was Peyton) and there's the recency bias factor. He threw 5 interceptions in two games last year. Two in a blowout loss to Cleveland and three against Pitt in a game they should've lost. And they played two bad teams in Arizona and Cincy and beat them in games that shouldn't have been that close but were. I think Baltimore and Lamar are fine. I was expecting statistically regression this year because no one has back to back historic years. Those guys on the other side of the ball get paid too. 

 

I still think they need to trade for a wide receiver. 

Think it's the stigma of the position. Great quarterbacks historically have been pocket passers who can put the ball through tiny windows. Nobody ever questioned Peyton or Rodgers or Brady's arm because it was there and the bad games were aberrations. 

Lamar is known for his legs and I feel like everyone who isn't a die hard fan knows his arm is average. So take away the dual portion of his threat and you have a guy with an average arm, a la Eli or Rivers. 

Edited by oliminator123

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8 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

The bolded part is so key. People who say he's not a bad passer while pointing to his pocket passing stats fail to mention/realize that those throws are MUCH easier when a defense has to worry about a very good running game AND the best running QB of all-time. You make him pass from the pocket with the defensive looks a guy like say Rivers sees, and Lamar would look like, well, Rivers. 

 

It's not that this isn't true, it's just hard to make this criticism in the modern day NFL. Because guys like Watson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and even Pat Mahomes benefit from their ability to use their legs to their advantage. It's mind numbing how often Mahomes breaks from the pocket and makes circus throws on a dead sprint. I think Russ is the best off script QB in the league. 

 

And Arizona pretty much has to get Kyler outside the pocket because he's 4 feet tall. 

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3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Think it's the stigma of the position. Great quarterbacks historically have been pocket passers who can put the ball threw tiny windows. Nobody ever questioned Peyton or Rodgers or Brady's arm because it was there and the bad games were aberrations. 

Lamar is known for his legs and I feel like everyone who isn't a die hard fan knows his arm is average. So take away the dual portion of his threat and you have a guy with an average arm, a la Eli or Rivers. 

 

I mean we really have to stop doing this thing that because Lamar is a better athlete than everyone at the position we have to reframe it as a negative and play hypotheticals. If Rodgers didn't have a howitzer for a right arm and if Peyton were significantly dumber neither of them would be great either. 

 

And tbh, Brady and Peyton never had spectacular arms either. They were great at things they could actually control. Peyton never had a huge arm. Peyton's preparation and attention to detail mattered way more. 

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Just now, Deuce1042 said:

 

I mean we really have to stop doing this thing that because Lamar is a better athlete than everyone at the position we have to reframe it as a negative and play hypotheticals. If Rodgers didn't have a howitzer for a right arm and if Peyton were significantly dumber neither of them would be great either. 

 

And tbh, Brady and Peyton never had spectacular arms either. They were great at things they could actually control. Peyton never had a huge arm. Peyton's preparation and attention to detail mattered way more. 

Okay. Fair arguments. And Lamar is still young, but he has shown nothing more than being a threat with his legs. We haven't seen him making split decisions a la Manning, or have that pinpoint accuracy a la Mahomes. He has his legs and that's it. 

You can't take away Manning's brain. You can't take away Rodgers' arm, barring major injury. The quarterback is meant to throw the ball, not run it. So if you stop the running, what do you have? 

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6 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Okay. Fair arguments. And Lamar is still young, but he has shown nothing more than being a threat with his legs. We haven't seen him making split decisions a la Manning, or have that pinpoint accuracy a la Mahomes. He has his legs and that's it. 

You can't take away Manning's brain. You can't take away Rodgers' arm, barring major injury. The quarterback is meant to throw the ball, not run it. So if you stop the running, what do you have? 

 

This is not even remotely true. Also a quarterback is meant to orchestrate an offense and put points on the board. How that happens is immaterial. There's no functional difference between Lamar passing for a TD and rushing for one. It's six points. You want an aesthetic. 

 

There is way too much groupthink and reliance on archetypes in QB evaluation and Lamar continuously exposes that. He's the ultimate dual threat. Probably the best one to ever play when you consider college and NFL production. Does that make him one of the best QBs in the league? Nah I don't think so. But he's a good QB. And you can win with him. That's all I'm saying. Probably one of the most dangerous though. 

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1 hour ago, Macgregor said:

Yeah, me neither. Coming to terms with it, and may explore options if he has a big game. 

There's worse scenarios than ending up with a guy whose floor is somewhere around 20-25 points.

 

edit: I suppose his floor is technically the KC game, which falls below that range. If he gives us several of those back-to-back, it's probably time to panic. 


good edit.  I wish his floor was 20-25.  I wouldn’t be worried at all if that was the case.  

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37 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

 

There is way too much groupthink and reliance on archetypes in QB evaluation and Lamar continuously exposes that. He's the ultimate dual threat. Probably the best one to ever play when you consider college and NFL production. Does that make him one of the best QBs in the league? Nah I don't think so. But he's a good QB. And you can win with him. That's all I'm saying. Probably one of the most dangerous though. 


But if he’s got a bum knee, then he’s not. That’s the worry right now. 

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1 hour ago, Cleanface said:


good edit.  I wish his floor was 20-25.  I wouldn’t be worried at all if that was the case.  

 

Yep, his floor is 12-15 this season. He's already had 3 dud games floating around 15. People can excuse it all they want, and he might have some blow up games going forward, but his floor is pretty damn low this season.

Edited by harck

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Just now, harck said:

 

His floor is 12-15 this season. He's already had 3 dud games floating around 15. People can excuse it all they want, and he might have some blow up games going forward, but his floor is pretty damn low this season.

 

3 duds and no ceiling games this season. Im glad I got rid of him.

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This is what we call a bye low window kids. 2 of his duds were because they were blow outs against abysmal teams. Thats not going to be the norm as the season continues on. Especially in the AFC north. 

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4 hours ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

It's not that this isn't true, it's just hard to make this criticism in the modern day NFL. Because guys like Watson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and even Pat Mahomes benefit from their ability to use their legs to their advantage. It's mind numbing how often Mahomes breaks from the pocket and makes circus throws on a dead sprint. I think Russ is the best off script QB in the league. 

 

And Arizona pretty much has to get Kyler outside the pocket because he's 4 feet tall. 


all those guys (sans maybe kyler rn) are far better passers than lamar tho.  Those guys are elite passers who can also run.  Lamar is an elite runner who can also pass 

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Two issues

 

1) He isn't good in the pocket.  If you have a line contain him and not go for the sack and slowly collapse the pocket, he can't use his legs to create time, space, and holes to happen in the D when a WR breaks off the pass.  When teams get up on them and force him to pass, he does poorly.  This has had happened repeatedly.  It is going to become more and more exploited if they can't fix the run game.  The guy has ONE 300 yard passing game, that blowout in Miami.  He has only FOUR over 250 in his career.   He has 27 career starts, and only 12 games over 200 yards.  He has to fix this aspect of his game or he is doomed.  He has 10 more yards than Haskins and played in one more game than him.  He has Baker Mayfield's passing numbers this year.

 

2) His passing options pretty much suck. Why this team didn't bring in more help is beyond me.  Teams were going to start to key in on the read option this year after seeing it all last year.  It would naturally have diminishing returns.  The run game hasn't been sharp, and the passing game is Andrews dropping passes.

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28 minutes ago, Moveless said:

This is what we call a bye low window kids. 2 of his duds were because they were blow outs against abysmal teams. Thats not going to be the norm as the season continues on. Especially in the AFC north. 

 

It looks like the norm, especially with their schedule and arguably the best defense in the league.

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its not his ability to run, its not even his skillset...there's qbs much less talented than him that are putting up better numbers than lamar. its the ravens offensive philosophy and game script that his hindering his performance first and foremost. the ravens are playing garbage teams, running up the score quickly and then coasting with no urgency for entire halfs. the ravens DONT CARE ABOUT YOUR FANTASY TEAM. That's the issue. They play some better teams between weeks 8 to 12, which may force lamar to push the offense for an entire game, and that's where he might be able to get better numbers...it will be a good opportunity to trade him then because after that the competition is going to be putrid and the ravens offense is gonna be just chillen for large portions. 

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1 hour ago, Moveless said:

This is what we call a bye low window kids. 2 of his duds were because they were blow outs against abysmal teams. Thats not going to be the norm as the season continues on. Especially in the AFC north. 

 

His biggest dud of the year was against KC. So if he duds on blowout games... and he duds in competitive games... 

Edited by harck

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53 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

This is why you never draft a QB early. 

 

You have to hit your picks regardless of position.

If you waited on Mahomes/Lamar  and took Drake....Godwin, Julio, Golladay, AJ Brown...you probably has less wins as these guys have done nothing. 

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Absolutely a buy low window, but the Lamar owners in my league want 2nd-3rd round caliber players. After dealing with Matt Ryan the last few weeks, I'll gladly take a reduced ceiling over a seemingly bottomless pit of a floor.

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4 hours ago, Cleanface said:


But if he’s got a bum knee, then he’s not. That’s the worry right now. 


If Mahomes gets blind sided by a DE and wrecks his throwing shoulder he isn’t either. 

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1 hour ago, cgu112 said:


all those guys (sans maybe kyler rn) are far better passers than lamar tho.  Those guys are elite passers who can also run.  Lamar is an elite runner who can also pass 


They wouldn’t be as elite if they didn’t have mobility. If Russell Wilson weren’t athletic he wouldn’t be as good. Not behind that offensive line. 

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