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Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

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17 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

Are we not all talking about the same Lamar who just rushed for 100 yards before the bye? I'm confused why there's such high negativity at the moment, agreed he wasn't used to his strengths when his knee was bulky but I'm definitely not benching for a Wentz. Might come back to bite me but I'll own it if it does.

 

Because he's not living up to the adp he was drafted at and the offense has taken several steps back while the defense has held several opponents in check. Most took Lamar in the 2nd or 3rd right? Plenty of top qbs so far were either taken after him in the 5th or later, or taken off the wire. To give up a top RB/WR/kelce for a qb to underperform his adp is brutal. There's a reason that "don't draft a qb early" was a thing

Edited by BeastOfTheLeast
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5 hours ago, devilfish said:

I have Herbert till POs... PO time is Lamar time 

  
I have same option. Surprised to see so many benching Lamar.   Guess I should reconsider.  I didn’t draft him but I was happy to get him for cheap a month ago.  Sucks that he’s competition dependent already.  Was hoping he would roll ROS, but I knew there were early warning signs. 

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1 hour ago, vercrazy said:

Are we not all talking about the same Lamar who just rushed for 100 yards before the bye? I'm confused why there's such high negativity at the moment, agreed he wasn't used to his strengths when his knee was bulky but I'm definitely not benching for a Wentz. Might come back to bite me but I'll own it if it does.

most fantasy viable qbs are throwing 250 plus yard and getting 3 tds. who cares about 100 yards rushing, when that's all he brings plus a td. he's the no.13 in my in pts per game. that's horrendous. 

Edited by TroutFister
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2 hours ago, fantasymad said:

This game is going to be a good one. I think it might be more high scoring then what most people think. Can't bench Lamar in a game of this magnitude.

Generally I would be inclined to agree, but I would've said the same thing about the KC game. 

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Benching for Wentz this week.
 

Don’t @ me.

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I think it should be known that I myself am not smashing the panic button and running with my hair on fire to wentz. I just like to think about the options in front of me. And in my situation I think I can let lamar go and aquire wentz but prolly more importantly chase edmonds in the same deal. So its been something I feel worth thinking about. This forum is valuable so we can rattle the ideas around and converse. Could trading lamar be a bad move? Especially for Carson effing wentz... absolutely. But given the recent play, schedule differences, etc... we will see. Maybe Dez bryant is the savior..

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10 hours ago, BeastOfTheLeast said:

 

Because he's not living up to the adp he was drafted at and the offense has taken several steps back while the defense has held several opponents in check. Most took Lamar in the 2nd or 3rd right? Plenty of top qbs so far were either taken after him in the 5th or later, or taken off the wire. To give up a top RB/WR/kelce for a qb to underperform his adp is brutal. There's a reason that "don't draft a qb early" was a thing

 

Totally fair, I didn't draft Lamar myself because I tend to agree with the "don't draft a QB early" philosophy, so I'd agree with you that a 2nd rounder was probably too steep for him. I do think he was a buy low a few weeks ago and based on some of the responses in here I think he still might be.

 

9 hours ago, TroutFister said:

most fantasy viable qbs are throwing 250 plus yard and getting 3 tds. who cares about 100 yards rushing, when that's all he brings plus a td. he's the no.13 in my in pts per game. that's horrendous. 

 

That's just it though... That's a giant piece of why Lamar Jackson was a fantasy stud last year. Just to prove the point of why you should care:

 

108 yards rushing (10.8 points)

1 rushing TD (6 points)

186 yards passing (6.2 points)

1 passing TD (6 points)

 

That's a total of 29 points. What happens if we compare that to last year's MVP Lamar Jackson? That Lamar averaged 28.11 points a game (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php?year=2019&start=1&end=17)

 

So I get that Lamar hasn't played up to his early round grade the whole year, but his last game absolutely was on par with his 2019 performances and if he repeated that line every game then owners absolutely should care even though it's only 2 total TDs—because he'd break (or be very close to breaking) his own record for most valuable season ever.

Edited by vercrazy

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30+ fantasy points this week. Book it

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2 hours ago, vercrazy said:

 

Totally fair, I didn't draft Lamar myself because I tend to agree with the "don't draft a QB early" philosophy, so I'd agree with you that a 2nd rounder was probably too steep for him. I do think he was a buy low a few weeks ago and based on some of the responses in here I think he still might be.

 

 

That's just it though... That's a giant piece of why Lamar Jackson was a fantasy stud last year. Just to prove the point of why you should care:

 

108 yards rushing (10.8 points)

1 rushing TD (6 points)

186 yards passing (6.2 points)

1 passing TD (6 points)

 

That's a total of 29 points. What happens if we compare that to last year's MVP Lamar Jackson? That Lamar averaged 28.11 points a game (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php?year=2019&start=1&end=17)

 

So I get that Lamar hasn't played up to his early round grade the whole year, but his last game absolutely was on par with his 2019 performances and if he repeated that line every game then owners absolutely should care even though it's only 2 total TDs—because he'd break (or be very close to breaking) his own record for most valuable season ever.

 

I'd agree with you IF he could do that weekly. It's gonna take more than one game to have confidence moving forward so people will be hesitant because he could easily go back to the subpar games he was having while the defense keeps opponents at bay. Now buying low I'd agree with depending on what you gave up to get him

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2 hours ago, vercrazy said:

 

Totally fair, I didn't draft Lamar myself because I tend to agree with the "don't draft a QB early" philosophy, so I'd agree with you that a 2nd rounder was probably too steep for him. I do think he was a buy low a few weeks ago and based on some of the responses in here I think he still might be.

 

 

That's just it though... That's a giant piece of why Lamar Jackson was a fantasy stud last year. Just to prove the point of why you should care:

 

108 yards rushing (10.8 points)

1 rushing TD (6 points)

186 yards passing (6.2 points)

1 passing TD (6 points)

 

That's a total of 29 points. What happens if we compare that to last year's MVP Lamar Jackson? That Lamar averaged 28.11 points a game (https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php?year=2019&start=1&end=17)

 

So I get that Lamar hasn't played up to his early round grade the whole year, but his last game absolutely was on par with his 2019 performances and if he repeated that line every game then owners absolutely should care even though it's only 2 total TDs—because he'd break (or be very close to breaking) his own record for most valuable season ever.

 

This is all true...the difference this year is that those 30 points aren't lapping the field anymore when stiffs like Tannenhill, Burrow, Herbert, etc are all putting up 3 - 4 TD games with 250+++ passing.  The 'cheat code' of QB rushing only works when it is icing on the cake.  We've been missing the passing action, so its been all icing and no cake so far this year.

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14 minutes ago, Al.Davis said:

 

This is all true...the difference this year is that those 30 points aren't lapping the field anymore when stiffs like Tannenhill, Burrow, Herbert, etc are all putting up 3 - 4 TD games with 250+++ passing. 


Stiffs is harsh, but yeah, Tannehill & Burrow could’ve been had in the latter rounds, and Herbert went undrafted.  I’m going with Tannehill over Jackson this week.  Hopefully it doesn’t backfire on me. 

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20 minutes ago, Al.Davis said:

 

This is all true...the difference this year is that those 30 points aren't lapping the field anymore when stiffs like Tannenhill, Burrow, Herbert, etc are all putting up 3 - 4 TD games with 250+++ passing.  The 'cheat code' of QB rushing only works when it is icing on the cake.  We've been missing the passing action, so its been all icing and no cake so far this year.

I liked this mostly because of "all icing and no cake". I'm totally stealing that. 

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1 hour ago, Al.Davis said:

 

This is all true...the difference this year is that those 30 points aren't lapping the field anymore when stiffs like Tannenhill, Burrow, Herbert, etc are all putting up 3 - 4 TD games with 250+++ passing.  The 'cheat code' of QB rushing only works when it is icing on the cake.  We've been missing the passing action, so its been all icing and no cake so far this year.

exactly!

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100+ rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs and I don't care what he does passing this week.

 

That alone would put him over 32 points with the passing as the icing. 

 

Pitt D line is too strong, time to take off with it, LJax.

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2 hours ago, Al.Davis said:

 

This is all true...the difference this year is that those 30 points aren't lapping the field anymore when stiffs like Tannenhill, Burrow, Herbert, etc are all putting up 3 - 4 TD games with 250+++ passing.  The 'cheat code' of QB rushing only works when it is icing on the cake.  We've been missing the passing action, so its been all icing and no cake so far this year.

 

Again fair, but I'd argue:

 

1) Lamar Jackson had zero games of 250+ yards passing in 2019 after Week 3, it didn't hurt him then, so that icing was still plenty tasty.

2) I don't think Tannehill, Burrow, or Herbert will end the season sniffing anywhere closer to 48 - 64 TD's, which is what 3 - 4 per week would get you. They've done well, and they were probably drafted too late and Lamar too early in most leagues, but from a going forward perspective I'd still much rather have Lamar. He might not lap the field of QB's this year, but he definitely can still be a top QB, though probably more worthy of a ~4th rounder than a 2nd. 

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22 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

Again fair, but I'd argue:

 

1) Lamar Jackson had zero games of 250+ yards passing in 2019 after Week 3, it didn't hurt him then, so that icing was still plenty tasty.

2) I don't think Tannehill, Burrow, or Herbert will end the season sniffing anywhere closer to 48 - 64 TD's, which is what 3 - 4 per week would get you. They've done well, and they were probably drafted too late and Lamar too early in most leagues, but from a going forward perspective I'd still much rather have Lamar. He might not lap the field of QB's this year, but he definitely can still be a top QB, though probably more worthy of a ~4th rounder than a 2nd. 

2019

208.5 passing yards per game

80.4 rushing yards per game

2.4 passing TDs per game

0.466 rushing TDs per game

2020

189.2 passing yards per game

57.7 rushing yards per game

1.66 passing TDs per game

0.33 rushing TDs per game

 

It's really not all that difficult to see that he has sucked across the board.

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56 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

2019

208.5 passing yards per game

80.4 rushing yards per game

2.4 passing TDs per game

0.466 rushing TDs per game

2020

189.2 passing yards per game

57.7 rushing yards per game

1.66 passing TDs per game

0.33 rushing TDs per game

 

It's really not all that difficult to see that he has sucked across the board.

 

I'll start this by saying I understand why people who drafted him highly would be frustrated, he has not been worth a 2nd round pick so far this year. 

 

That said, even if you look at his 2020 numbers which "suck across the board", if he continued at that same pace he'd finish:

 

3rd best QB in 2015

4th best QB in 2016

4th best QB in 2017

4th best QB in 2018

5th best QB in 2019 (technically he was 1st that season so 4th best QB in 2019 if you remove him from ahead of himself)

 

So worst case, he's a high-end QB1. I'll agree though that a finish like that would not be worth a 2nd round pick.

 

I'm optimistic for a few reasons though (beyond a high-end QB1 floor):

 

1) If you take away his Cincinnati game where he was playing on a bulky knee, his numbers bump up to a pace where he'd finish:

 

2nd best QB in 2015

2nd best QB in 2016

2nd best QB in 2017

2nd best QB in 2018

2nd best QB in 2019 (behind himself)

 

Given that he had his best rushing performance of the year in his game before the bye, I think it's also reasonable to assume he's back to being healthy and his 2 rush attempts in that one will be the outlier not the norm. 

 

2) One of the big reasons why people are down on Lamar is that in relativity to other QB's, he has not been as good. This is true, but it should be noted that there are six QB's that right now would be 1/1/1/2/2 in overall QB over the 2015 - 2019 range that I've mentioned, and ten QB's that would finish 2nd overall last year based on their current stats. I don't believe that most of them will keep up that pace, so as they transition back to the mean even if Lamar remains the same he will become a more valuable in overall QB relativity. 

 

TL;DR: You can definitely be pissed off if you drafted Lamar in the 2nd round, but if you can buy him low I think you should. 

Edited by vercrazy
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16 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

I'll start this by saying I understand why people who drafted him highly would be frustrated, he has not been worth a 2nd round pick so far this year. 

 

That said, even if you look at his 2020 numbers which "suck across the board", if he continued at that same pace he'd finish:

 

3rd best QB in 2015

4th best QB in 2016

4th best QB in 2017

4th best QB in 2018

5th best QB in 2019 (technically he was 1st that season so 4th best QB in 2019 if you remove him from ahead of himself)

 

So worst case, he's a high-end QB1. I'll agree though that a finish like that would not be worth a 2nd round pick.

 

I'm optimistic for a few reasons though (beyond a high-end QB1 floor):

 

1) If you take away his Cincinnati game where he was playing on a bulky knee, his numbers bump up to a pace where he'd finish:

 

2nd best QB in 2015

2nd best QB in 2016

2nd best QB in 2017

2nd best QB in 2018

2nd best QB in 2019 (behind himself)

 

Given that he had his best rushing performance of the year in his game before the bye, I think it's also reasonable to assume he's back to being healthy and his 2 rush attempts in that one will be the outlier not the norm. 

 

2) One of the big reasons why people are down on Lamar is that in relativity to other QB's, he has not been as good. This is true, but it should be noted that there are six QB's that right now would be 1/1/1/2/2 in overall QB over the 2015 - 2019 range that I've mentioned, and ten QB's that would finish 2nd overall last year based on their current stats. I don't believe that most of them will keep up that pace, so as they transition back to the mean even if Lamar remains the same he will become a more valuable in overall QB relativity. 

 

TL;DR: You can definitely be pissed off if you drafted Lamar in the 2nd round, but if you can buy him low I think you should. 

This is really good stuff. Nice work.

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14 hours ago, pierceNKC said:

Benching for Wentz this week.
 

Don’t @ me.

I'm doing exactly the same 

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19 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

I'll start this by saying I understand why people who drafted him highly would be frustrated, he has not been worth a 2nd round pick so far this year. 

 

That said, even if you look at his 2020 numbers which "suck across the board", if he continued at that same pace he'd finish:

 

3rd best QB in 2015

4th best QB in 2016

4th best QB in 2017

4th best QB in 2018

5th best QB in 2019 (technically he was 1st that season so 4th best QB in 2019 if you remove him from ahead of himself)

 

So worst case, he's a high-end QB1. I'll agree though that a finish like that would not be worth a 2nd round pick.

 

I'm optimistic for a few reasons though (beyond a high-end QB1 floor):

 

1) If you take away his Cincinnati game where he was playing on a bulky knee, his numbers bump up to a pace where he'd finish:

 

2nd best QB in 2015

2nd best QB in 2016

2nd best QB in 2017

2nd best QB in 2018

2nd best QB in 2019 (behind himself)

 

Given that he had his best rushing performance of the year in his game before the bye, I think it's also reasonable to assume he's back to being healthy and his 2 rush attempts in that one will be the outlier not the norm. 

 

2) One of the big reasons why people are down on Lamar is that in relativity to other QB's, he has not been as good. This is true, but it should be noted that there are six QB's that right now would be 1/1/1/2/2 in overall QB over the 2015 - 2019 range that I've mentioned, and ten QB's that would finish 2nd overall last year based on their current stats. I don't believe that most of them will keep up that pace, so as they transition back to the mean even if Lamar remains the same he will become a more valuable in overall QB relativity. 

 

TL;DR: You can definitely be pissed off if you drafted Lamar in the 2nd round, but if you can buy him low I think you should. 

Continue at his same pace:

11th best QB in 2020.

Takeaway the Cincinnati game, tied for 7th best QB in 2020.

not-a-good-start.gif

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24 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

I'll start this by saying I understand why people who drafted him highly would be frustrated, he has not been worth a 2nd round pick so far this year. 

 

That said, even if you look at his 2020 numbers which "suck across the board", if he continued at that same pace he'd finish:

 

3rd best QB in 2015

4th best QB in 2016

4th best QB in 2017

4th best QB in 2018

5th best QB in 2019 (technically he was 1st that season so 4th best QB in 2019 if you remove him from ahead of himself)

 

So worst case, he's a high-end QB1. I'll agree though that a finish like that would not be worth a 2nd round pick.

 

I'm optimistic for a few reasons though (beyond a high-end QB1 floor):

 

1) If you take away his Cincinnati game where he was playing on a bulky knee, his numbers bump up to a pace where he'd finish:

 

2nd best QB in 2015

2nd best QB in 2016

2nd best QB in 2017

2nd best QB in 2018

2nd best QB in 2019 (behind himself)

 

Given that he had his best rushing performance of the year in his game before the bye, I think it's also reasonable to assume he's back to being healthy and his 2 rush attempts in that one will be the outlier not the norm. 

 

2) One of the big reasons why people are down on Lamar is that in relativity to other QB's, he has not been as good. This is true, but it should be noted that there are six QB's that right now would be 1/1/1/2/2 in overall QB over the 2015 - 2019 range that I've mentioned, and ten QB's that would finish 2nd overall last year based on their current stats. I don't believe that most of them will keep up that pace, so as they transition back to the mean even if Lamar remains the same he will become a more valuable in overall QB relativity. 

 

TL;DR: You can definitely be pissed off if you drafted Lamar in the 2nd round, but if you can buy him low I think you should. 

These numbers can't be right? How can he be QB12 this year and top 5 every other year? Are.you doing it on a PPG basis which makes more sense? Otherwise you are including his numbers for 16 games vs other QBs who may have missed games.

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I just recalculated and we may be on to something here.  If you takeaway the Cleveland, Houston, KC, Washington and Cincinnati games, he is on pace for QB2 in 2020.  LFG!

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22 minutes ago, yanksman said:

These numbers can't be right? How can he be QB12 this year and top 5 every other year? Are.you doing it on a PPG basis which makes more sense? Otherwise you are including his numbers for 16 games vs other QBs who may have missed games.

 

PPG basis, if you look there are way more guys doing 22+ points per game this season than any other season ever. I don't believe that pace will continue for most of the guys doing it right now:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/stats/qb.php

Edited by vercrazy

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3 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

 

PPG basis, if you look there are way more guys doing 22+ points per game this season than other other season ever. I don't believe that pace will continue for most of the guys doing it right now:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/stats/qb.php

Interesting 

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