Corleone

Lamar Jackson 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

In a nutshell, rushing stats will dip & passing numbers will spike. That's how I see it in 2020

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

I have the Ravens going 12-4 this year, but a tough 12-4. Not as many blowouts and Jackson will play all 16 games barring injury. They'll probably lose a game or two they shouldn't. It's hard to follow up historic seasons back to back so Lamar is due for some regression (especially in efficiency). I don't think the league will "figure him out" like his detractors say though. The league doesn't really "figure out" great players in the way people mean. 

 

By now everyone knows what Mahomes does well and what he doesn't. It's just having the personnel to take advantage of that. It's gonna be the same with Jackson. The Dolphins game notwithstanding, Lamar's best performances last season were from week 9 and onward when teams already had weeks of film on him by that point. Remember Baltimore's offense struggled early in the year after the Miami game. 

Imo there is a difference between figuring out a guy who just runs all over the field, versus a guy who drops passes through tiny windows. 

We'll find out this season. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Imo there is a difference between figuring out a guy who just runs all over the field, versus a guy who drops passes through tiny windows. 

We'll find out this season. 

 

I agree with this, you can't stop what Mahomes does ... especially with the personnel & coaching he has in KC. Lamar is a different beast entirely, not that he's easy to stop or figure out per say. But you can gameplay against him with a much simpler scheme. With all that being said this is fantasy ... & the kid is going to absolutely crush it in 2020 , as will Mahomie. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

TDs coming down, rushing yards coming down. Don’t think he provides the same advantage he did last year. If you feel that he will repeat what he did last year, absolutely grab him in the 3rd. Just not for me

If he repeats what he did last year, he should be a first rounder.  In looking through my leagues, he scored 20-25% more fantasy points (around 80-85 in my scoring formats) than any other QB last year.  That's a pretty extreme advantage (5+ more points per game than any other QB in the league). 

 

That being said, I think his rushing yards drop to 600-800, his total TD's hover around the same (maybe a slight regression), and his passing yards have a slight uptick.  So for me he makes sense as early as the end of round 2 or beginning of round three.  After guys like Hopkins, Kelce, Aaron Jones, Kittle, Julio, M. Sanders, Drake, etc., but before guys like Godwin, Conner, Evans, Cooper, Golladay.

 

Maybe he drops a little more in formats that increase passing yardage points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

If he repeats what he did last year, he should be a first rounder.  In looking through my leagues, he scored 20-25% more fantasy points (around 80-85 in my scoring formats) than any other QB last year.  That's a pretty extreme advantage (5+ more points per game than any other QB in the league). 

 

That being said, I think his rushing yards drop to 600-800, his total TD's hover around the same (maybe a slight regression), and his passing yards have a slight uptick.  So for me he makes sense as early as the end of round 2 or beginning of round three.  After guys like Hopkins, Kelce, Aaron Jones, Kittle, Julio, M. Sanders, Drake, etc., but before guys like Godwin, Conner, Evans, Cooper, Golladay.

 

Maybe he drops a little more in formats that increase passing yardage points.


He should be a first rounder in 2 qb and super flex leagues. Honestly idk if it’s A big enough advantage in 1 qb leagues to be a first rounder even if he puts up last years numbers.. I guess it depends on where in the first ya def wouldn’t take him over CMC or Saquon but maybe in front of dalvin cook ?? I’d have to dive into the numbers more  

 

I agree most of what you say but i don’t think his rushing stats will fall as low as 600 if he plays 16 games. I mean he’s he best rushing QB in the history of the NFL (ya better than Vick) and on a team that wants to use him like that. 600 yards would be just 100 yards better than Watson. Who is a great running qb but he’s Several notches below Jackson and is utilized more like a traditional QB. I think 700 yards is probably the absolute floor (without injuries obviously) but I’d bet the farm he breaks 800 yards this year. 
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


He should be a first rounder in 2 qb and super flex leagues. Honestly idk if it’s A big enough advantage in 1 qb leagues to be a first rounder even if he puts up last years numbers.. I guess it depends on where in the first ya def wouldn’t take him over CMC or Saquon but maybe in front of dalvin cook ?? I’d have to dive into the numbers more  

 

I agree most of what you say but i don’t think his rushing stats will fall as low as 600 if he plays 16 games. I mean he’s he best rushing QB in the history of the NFL (ya better than Vick) and on a team that wants to use him like that. 600 yards would be just 100 yards better than Watson. Who is a great running qb but he’s Several notches below Jackson and is utilized more like a traditional QB. I think 700 yards is probably the absolute floor (without injuries obviously) but I’d bet the farm he breaks 800 yards this year. 
 

 

I agree with this.

I expect passing TD regression and rushing yards regression due to less attempts. But I do think the passing yards go up.

I think he could regress in those areas and still finish as the QB1 by a decent margin. I'd still expect 800-1000 rushing yards and ~30 passing TDs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Imo there is a difference between figuring out a guy who just runs all over the field, versus a guy who drops passes through tiny windows. 

We'll find out this season. 

 

I don't agree with that characterization of Jackson. How often does Mahomes pass the ball through tight windows really? Compared to other QBs? Most teams don't even play man coverage against KC because guys like Mecole, Tyreek, and Sammy are faster than who most teams have on their secondary. 

 

Also Lamar was the best QB in the NFL last year in the red zone which necessitates being able to throw into tight windows. His red zone efficiency is honestly the biggest difference between last season and his rookie year. Mechanical issues notwithstanding. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Deuce1042 said:

 

I don't agree with that characterization of Jackson. How often does Mahomes pass the ball through tight windows really? Compared to other QBs? Most teams don't even play man coverage against KC because guys like Mecole, Tyreek, and Sammy are faster than who most teams have on their secondary. 

 

Also Lamar was the best QB in the NFL last year in the red zone which necessitates being able to throw into tight windows. His red zone efficiency is honestly the biggest difference between last season and his rookie year. Mechanical issues notwithstanding. 

Mahomes was actually pretty bad (for his standards) throwing into tight windows. Reid schemes people open better than anyone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:


He should be a first rounder in 2 qb and super flex leagues. Honestly idk if it’s A big enough advantage in 1 qb leagues to be a first rounder even if he puts up last years numbers.. I guess it depends on where in the first ya def wouldn’t take him over CMC or Saquon but maybe in front of dalvin cook ?? I’d have to dive into the numbers more  

 

I agree most of what you say but i don’t think his rushing stats will fall as low as 600 if he plays 16 games. I mean he’s he best rushing QB in the history of the NFL (ya better than Vick) and on a team that wants to use him like that. 600 yards would be just 100 yards better than Watson. Who is a great running qb but he’s Several notches below Jackson and is utilized more like a traditional QB. I think 700 yards is probably the absolute floor (without injuries obviously) but I’d bet the farm he breaks 800 yards this year. 
 

 

If he was guaranteed to repeat what he did last year (5 points/game above the 2nd highest ranked QB and 10 points/game above the 12th highest ranked QB), then I would draft him in round 1...maybe in the middle, certainly before the end.  I don't know how you couldn't.  

 

To put that kind of point gap into perspective, in my full point PPR league the gap between the WR2 (Godwin) and the WR28 (Marvin Jones) was about 5 points/game. Michael Thomas was an outlier.  The gap between RB2 and RB13 was about 5 points/game. McCaffrey was the outlier.

 

Lamar was a league winner in 2019.  He, McCaffrey and Michael Thomas dramatically outperformed other players at their respective positions.  And that's ideally what you're looking for in a round 1 pick.

 

All that being said, as I mentioned, I don't see how he can repeat at that level.  Running a little less, probably at least a slight regression in total TD's, maybe some more passing yards.  But he is still a beast.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Price check on Lamar Jackson's value in PPR dynasty? I would specially like to move him to upgrade my WRs, but still need a QB in return

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NeverEnough- said:

Price check on Lamar Jackson's value in PPR dynasty? I would specially like to move him to upgrade my WRs, but still need a QB in return

3 Future 1st Round Picks + Joe Burrow + Mike Thomas or comparable WR to Thomas.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cdd10 said:

3 Future 1st Round Picks + Joe Burrow + Mike Thomas or comparable WR to Thomas.

that's probably a little excessive lol. Probably more like a 2021 1st, a 2022 1st and Burrow would do it. In a 1QB League

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

top 5 overall pick in Superflex or 2QB leagues? 

I think he should be. He somehow fell to me at #6 last night though

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, cdd10 said:

that's probably a little excessive lol. Probably more like a 2021 1st, a 2022 1st and Burrow would do it. In a 1QB League

What's he worth in terms of WRs and/or Rbs, though?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/2/2020 at 4:17 PM, WEIL3R said:

If he was guaranteed to repeat what he did last year (5 points/game above the 2nd highest ranked QB and 10 points/game above the 12th highest ranked QB), then I would draft him in round 1...maybe in the middle, certainly before the end.  I don't know how you couldn't.  

 

To put that kind of point gap into perspective, in my full point PPR league the gap between the WR2 (Godwin) and the WR28 (Marvin Jones) was about 5 points/game. Michael Thomas was an outlier.  The gap between RB2 and RB13 was about 5 points/game. McCaffrey was the outlier.

 

Lamar was a league winner in 2019.  He, McCaffrey and Michael Thomas dramatically outperformed other players at their respective positions.  And that's ideally what you're looking for in a round 1 pick.

 

All that being said, as I mentioned, I don't see how he can repeat at that level.  Running a little less, probably at least a slight regression in total TD's, maybe some more passing yards.  But he is still a beast.

to be fair, i would say LJ was outlier last year just like MT and CMC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NeverEnough- said:

What's he worth in terms of WRs and/or Rbs, though?

He might be worth going to the "Assistant Coach Help Forum"? I think that's what he's worth. Seriously though--I own him in a dynasty and I'm not sure what I'd trade him for. He puts up a ton of points every time he steps on the field and maybe more importantly he's just so FUN to root for. I've been fortunate to win a lot in that league but it's been a long time since I've had a guy on my team where texts are flying around of the "holy **** did you see that?!" variety. If somebody in your league is actively pushing to get him I'd ask for a tier 2 QB1 and a WR1 and maybe a future 1st. That's probably too much but if they're trying to get him they're clearly expecting big things of him and have visions of his output last season in their mind. 

People speaking about regression regarding his rushing yards are forgetting that he might actually be due for some positive regression when it comes to rushing TDs. Given the yards he rushed for and the situations in which he rushed last season his rushing TDs were actually lower than they should have been. There's a chance his rushing yards come down but his rushing TDs actually go up. 

The odds of him reaching the same heights and being as efficient as he was last season are slim. However, it's not like his greatness was a 4 game flash in the pan. He was great week to week to week for the entire season and put up points regardless of the competition or whether they were losing or winning by so much he was sitting out the 4th quarter. Keep in mind last season was only his first full season as a starter and he's only 23, the same age as Joe Burrow. Brown and Boykin, his two main WRs from last season, are going in to their second NFL season so it's likely they will be improving a good deal as historically experience has been very important for NFL WRs. He plays for one of the most well run franchises in the NFL. His offensive coordinator somehow wasn't poached away and is returning for another season (I think this is a BIG deal). He plays for a head coach and an offensive staff who are willing to build the entire offense around him and have repeatedly proven themselves to be smart and adaptable. 

It's hard to believe he'll attain the same heights he did last season but there are also a LOT of indicators pointing UP for him this season. I'm personally not counting on nearly as much regression as a lot of posters around here seem to be. Obviously there's always the worry with a running QB but I watched most of RG3s games his crazy rookie season and I watched almost all of Lamar's plays last season and Lamar seems to have a talent RG3 just didn't seem to have -- the ability to not get killed at the end of a play. Every time RG3 ran it was a little terrifying because he never seemed to understand that protecting himself was more important than getting that extra yard. He consistently seemed to take "good god is his leg broken?" hits and couldn't even seem to run out of bounds without running in to a gatorade bucket or getting clotheslined by a bench. Even sliding to protect himself was an adventure that always looked awkward and a little dangerous. Lamar will take a hit every once in a while but he seems to have the talent that a lot of good RBs with long careers have -- he never seems to let the defender T off on him and obliterate him. He never seems to take the full force of a blow -- usually he's able to adjust a bit and just take a glancing hit. Obviously it's the NFL and all it takes is one bad play or one bit of bad luck but you can say that for anybody out there. 

Edited by yossarian
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone worried that the Ravens are so dominant that Lamar is just going to coast most 3rd and 4th quarters like he did in week 2? Ravens have such an easy schedule too, after this Chiefs game. Lamar himself said he's going to run less this year, and I think as a whole looking at the injuries the Ravens are going to take it easy in most safe games. Got a bad feeling...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, harck said:

Anyone worried that the Ravens are so dominant that Lamar is just going to coast most 3rd and 4th quarters like he did in week 2? Ravens have such an easy schedule too, after this Chiefs game. Lamar himself said he's going to run less this year, and I think as a whole looking at the injuries the Ravens are going to take it easy in most safe games. Got a bad feeling...

 

if you are that worried then approach the Cam owner with a package  📦 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

if you are that worried then approach the Cam owner with a package  📦 

 

This is what I've been doing but Cam owner is stingy even though Cam is on his bench lol. The irony is that I had Cam on my bench but flipped him in week 1. Should have kept Cam and traded Lamar for a king's ransom. Kicking myself, but trying to get Cam for a bench RB or WR. We'll see. Might also go after Dak.

edit: Yeah, the new Cam owner ain't budgin rip.

Edited by harck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FF bust pure and simple.....why you wait on the “next Lamar” (See Josh Allen) or play it safe😂😂😂😂....with boring Wilson or Prescott

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, kencav said:

FF bust pure and simple.....why you wait on the “next Lamar” (See Josh Allen) or play it safe😂😂😂😂....with boring Wilson or Prescott

 

Always fade the consensus #1 QB.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Madden 21 cover athlete 

Edited by SyNdicateZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   1 member