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rhg1084

Dustin May 2020 Outlook

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Seems like he will be battling Alex Wood for the Dodgers 5th rotation spot. 22 year old kid with a ton of potential. Probably will have some sort of innings limit I’d assume. He could also be a big breakout star this year and someone I’d definitely target on draft day 

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Big Red! He also competing with Jimmy Nelson, Stripling, Gonsolin. Both Nelson and May dealing with some minor injuries. Big Red likely to start off in the minors but yeah tons of potential.

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Going to be on the AAA shuttle most of the year I would think. Lot of short starts, maybe some bullpen time. Tough guy to own but seems like an optimal streamer candidate when needed. If Stripling does end up getting traded it may help his outlook a little, but right now he's one of 9 guys vying for 5 rotation spots. More specifically, 3 are locked in (Kershaw, Price, Buehler), and there are 6 guys (May, Nelson, Gonsolin, Urias, Wood, Stripling) vying for 2 spots. So trading Stripling doesn't mean anything. His NFBC ADP of 239 is way too high for me considering these factors. I get trying for upside but he would seem like someone you'd almost definitely drop by the time Opening Day arrives. Dave Roberts already announced Urias will enter the season as a starter, so he has to be a clear favorite for the 4 spot, then Wood and Stripling should have a leg up on May for the 5. If Nelson proves he's healthy, its just another guy they'd probably prefer starting at this point.

I won't be drafting him but I will probably be adding and dropping him multiple times this year if and when he gets a chance to make some starts.

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I like his poise and command and he gets good movement on his pitches. The playing time concerned has been raised earlier.

 

In terms of his approach, he seems like a groundballer type in the mold of Kevin Brown or Greg Maddux (not saying he’s as good). But that will of course put a cap on his Ks and I wonder if the limits his ceiling a bit.

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3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Going to be on the AAA shuttle most of the year I would think. Lot of short starts, maybe some bullpen time. Tough guy to own but seems like an optimal streamer candidate when needed. If Stripling does end up getting traded it may help his outlook a little, but right now he's one of 9 guys vying for 5 rotation spots. More specifically, 3 are locked in (Kershaw, Price, Buehler), and there are 6 guys (May, Nelson, Gonsolin, Urias, Wood, Stripling) vying for 2 spots. So trading Stripling doesn't mean anything. His NFBC ADP of 239 is way too high for me considering these factors. I get trying for upside but he would seem like someone you'd almost definitely drop by the time Opening Day arrives. Dave Roberts already announced Urias will enter the season as a starter, so he has to be a clear favorite for the 4 spot, then Wood and Stripling should have a leg up on May for the 5. If Nelson proves he's healthy, its just another guy they'd probably prefer starting at this point.

I won't be drafting him but I will probably be adding and dropping him multiple times this year if and when he gets a chance to make some starts.

I'm less concerned with the shuttle / phantom injury moves with the new change to the 15 day IL.  Heck I would think the Dodger manipulation was a driving force for the change lol.

 

Think about the two guys he is competing with: Urias and Wood.  Both are virtual locks to be capped one way or another at 150ish IP. At most.

 

  And all reports have him preparing to start implying he's essentially the number 6 as of today.  That means May will get his shot to stay in the rotation.  

 

He will for sure be frustrating to own at first but we are talking about an elite prospect and one averaging way more IP per year than Urias.  

 

That and the Dodger / AL West rotation bump makes him a guy to roster on every team a la Hill imo.

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14 hours ago, Magoo said:

I'm less concerned with the shuttle / phantom injury moves with the new change to the 15 day IL.  Heck I would think the Dodger manipulation was a driving force for the change lol.

 

Think about the two guys he is competing with: Urias and Wood.  Both are virtual locks to be capped one way or another at 150ish IP. At most.

 

  And all reports have him preparing to start implying he's essentially the number 6 as of today.  That means May will get his shot to stay in the rotation.  

 

He will for sure be frustrating to own at first but we are talking about an elite prospect and one averaging way more IP per year than Urias.  

 

That and the Dodger / AL West rotation bump makes him a guy to roster on every team a la Hill imo.

 

Dodgers definitely forced the rule change. But I think that might hurt their pitchers fantasy wise. Last year at least we could stash them on the DL and add another player. I would think this year they will just option players instead. And which players still have options left? May is the top candidate.

I agree Urias and Wood will be capped, but there is still Nelson, Gonsolin, and Stripling. I'd be surprised if any of those guys made more than 20 starts.

I just think he will be a guy that will certainly be dropped in March or April if you draft him, so why not try for someone else.

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36 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Dodgers definitely forced the rule change. But I think that might hurt their pitchers fantasy wise. Last year at least we could stash them on the DL and add another player. I would think this year they will just option players instead. And which players still have options left? May is the top candidate.

I agree Urias and Wood will be capped, but there is still Nelson, Gonsolin, and Stripling. I'd be surprised if any of those guys made more than 20 starts.

I just think he will be a guy that will certainly be dropped in March or April if you draft him, so why not try for someone else.

All makes sense.  Kind of a dumb tangential question:  Are there any ramifications etc from constantly shuttling someone? 

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9 minutes ago, Magoo said:

All makes sense.  Kind of a dumb tangential question:  Are there any ramifications etc from constantly shuttling someone? 

 

Its probably not the best for the player. But I'd assume they'd try to keep him on some sort of routine, such as make a start in the MLB, get sent down and have 2 short starts in the MILB, then brought back up for his next turn. Either that or they will move him in and out of the bullpen. I would think they will probably employ both strategies during the year.

They have had success with it with multiple guys so far (Stripling, Urias, Maeda, even May last year) where they were solid as a starter and reliever so I don't see why they would stop now.

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Are we thinking he's one of the guys that benefits from the delayed start? Probably has no chance to make the rotation at this point regardless but at least he can use this time to get healthy/build the pitch count up. Roberts has been clear they view him as a starter, but looks like it will take an injury or Wood struggling for him to get a chance. Still probably a good stash though. 

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Has anyone said how service time would be affected by this situation?  Curious if usual dates would still be used or extended to match the season

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Absolutely May will benefit. May's time is THIS year and I think he will make a big impact for his team.

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On 2/17/2020 at 4:12 PM, Sidearmer said:

Going to be on the AAA shuttle most of the year I would think. Lot of short starts, maybe some bullpen time. Tough guy to own but seems like an optimal streamer candidate when needed. If Stripling does end up getting traded it may help his outlook a little, but right now he's one of 9 guys vying for 5 rotation spots. More specifically, 3 are locked in (Kershaw, Price, Buehler), and there are 6 guys (May, Nelson, Gonsolin, Urias, Wood, Stripling) vying for 2 spots. So trading Stripling doesn't mean anything. His NFBC ADP of 239 is way too high for me considering these factors. I get trying for upside but he would seem like someone you'd almost definitely drop by the time Opening Day arrives. Dave Roberts already announced Urias will enter the season as a starter, so he has to be a clear favorite for the 4 spot, then Wood and Stripling should have a leg up on May for the 5. If Nelson proves he's healthy, its just another guy they'd probably prefer starting at this point.

I won't be drafting him but I will probably be adding and dropping him multiple times this year if and when he gets a chance to make some starts.

What makes you think you’ll “be adding and dropping him multiple times this year....”? Are you the only one in your league(s) who knows about May? Grab and stash. May will pitch in 2020, providing there’s a season. And May will be effective. 

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I think the shortened season is really going to force the Dodgers to pitch him more in the majors as they will need the extra starter.  

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4 hours ago, GJDHouse said:

I think the shortened season is really going to force the Dodgers to pitch him more in the majors as they will need the extra starter.  

This, I think he will be a very good pick-up for the season

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https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-dave-roberts-talks-starting-rotation-to-start-season/2020/06/24/

Doesn't look like he will be in the rotation. I've seen people hyped about him, preferring him over Cease, Richards and Heaney but he's not really getting the opportunity. Dave Roberts did say that starting pitchers probably won't pitch beyond 4 innings their first start. Is May a sneaky investment to get those Wins? Do you guys like him as an elite SP/RP Holds pitcher?

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I'm not sure how you CAN'T grab this guy in your drafts. Even if he doesn't play a ton this year, he is fantasy GOLD next season.

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