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tywalson

Gleyber Torres 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

not much room for error/regression for gleyber to return value at his adp. you paying for a $30 buck stat line where he could very easily be lucky to return $20 stat line

I don't necessarily disagree with the bolded... however, can you point out which players within +/- $5 of his ADP are guaranteed to return their draft value?

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26 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

gleyber hasnt had much struggle in mlb. so not sure how he responds or how quickly. sure he could continue to swing it and have another great season

 

He is 1000 PAs into his MLB career. Whatever weaknesses are in his game, were already exposed awhile ago. This is going to be his 3rd year. Bellinger, Devers, Story all broke out in their 3rd year. If anything. This is where he takes things to the next level and hits for a higher BA. Then getting "exposed"

Totally understand why people think the price is too rich for a guy who wont steal and hasn't hit for really high BA yet. My reason for faith in him is more intuitive. Which has to do with his high baseball IQ, maximized power approach

I wouldn't advise taking him in Yahoo with a 20's ADP and very loose eligibility rules. Devers and Harper should be taken before him. On the other side. The alternative suggestions like Muncy and Moose are underrating Torres actual semi-realistic upside.

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

He is 1000 PAs into his MLB career. Whatever weaknesses are in his game, were already exposed awhile ago. This is going to be his 3rd year. Bellinger, Devers, Story all broke out in their 3rd year. If anything. This is where he takes things to the next level and hits for a higher BA. Then getting "exposed"

Totally understand why people think the price is too rich for a guy who wont steal and hasn't hit for really high BA yet. My reason for faith in him is more intuitive. Which has to do with his high baseball IQ, maximized power approach

I wouldn't advise taking him in Yahoo with a 20's ADP and very loose eligibility rules. Devers and Harper should be taken before him. On the other side. The alternative suggestions like Muncy and Moose are underrating Torres actual semi-realistic upside.

does have a yelich vibe just too rich.

like i said unless you think he hits 40 or really ups his avg thats too much unknow for a guy coming off 38/90/96 278 and was a fringe top 50 asset last year.

the increase in homeruns/baseball really jacked up everything.

13 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I don't necessarily disagree with the bolded... however, can you point out which players within +/- $5 of his ADP are guaranteed to return their draft value?

no one is guaranteed.

jdm going 2 bucks more than gleyber is likely a better bet.

jo ram and tatis 3 and 5 bucks more i think the 5 cat production if more appealing and gives more room for error in 5x5 as even if avg isnt there the power speed still provides safer value than gleyber.

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last thing i will post as i dont dislike gleyber actually really like him as a baseball player but what chance does he have to even return top 40 value?

using last years stats (not perfect but it kinds puts stat line into perspective.

 

5x5 season rank last year

 

jdm 31 overall - 304 36/105/98 2 sb

blackmon 32 overall - 314 32/86/112/ 2 sb

soler 33 overall- 265 48/117/ 95 3 sb

springer 39 overall- 39/96/96 6sb 292

 

so how does gleyber return value at his top 30 adp? assuming stats in baseball stay similar to last year.

goldy 31 overall 2 years ago 290 33/83/95 7 sb (that line is basically yuli/gleyber last year that was good for 60/61 overall)

 

so last year numbers really up across baseball. will that continue?

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11 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Like who? I don't do auctions so tell me what players, being drafted around where Torres is, do you think are "significantly" better? 

 

FantasyPros Consensus ADP

30 Torres

31 Altuve

32 - S.Marte

33 Bogaerts

34 Sale

35 Snell

36 Alvarez

37 Blackmon

38 Springer

39 Albies

40 Baez

 

To start, id take every person on that list above torres

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12 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

To start, id take every person on that list above torres


If you don't like him, that's fine (we all have opinions), but most of the players on that list have just as many red flags as Torres. 

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Honestly, hate to say it cuz I'm a huge Sox fan, but someone asked me who's better, Devers or Gleyber and I had a real tough time deciding (of course Devers!)...but I think Gleyber is worth every penny on draft day, is a top 15 talent and I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks that this year...hard to stand out in that lineup, yet he does...I think this year he truly breaks out...I wish he was a Red Sox...

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On 2/24/2020 at 4:26 PM, colepenhagen said:

last thing i will post as i dont dislike gleyber actually really like him as a baseball player but what chance does he have to even return top 40 value?

using last years stats (not perfect but it kinds puts stat line into perspective.

 

5x5 season rank last year

 

jdm 31 overall - 304 36/105/98 2 sb

blackmon 32 overall - 314 32/86/112/ 2 sb

soler 33 overall- 265 48/117/ 95 3 sb

springer 39 overall- 39/96/96 6sb 292

 

so how does gleyber return value at his top 30 adp? assuming stats in baseball stay similar to last year.

goldy 31 overall 2 years ago 290 33/83/95 7 sb (that line is basically yuli/gleyber last year that was good for 60/61 overall)

 

so last year numbers really up across baseball. will that continue?

 

A second baseman putting up those numbers is more valuable for roster construction than an OF doing it. It's not as simple as comparing ADP to player rater. 

 

And even if it were, if I took someone 30th overall I'd be content with them being the 40th best player on the player rater.

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

A second baseman putting up those numbers is more valuable for roster construction than an OF doing it. It's not as simple as comparing ADP to player rater. 

 

And even if it were, if I took someone 30th overall I'd be content with them being the 40th best player on the player rater.

Gleyber will also have SS/2B eligibility.

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

A second baseman putting up those numbers is more valuable for roster construction than an OF doing it. It's not as simple as comparing ADP to player rater. 

 

And even if it were, if I took someone 30th overall I'd be content with them being the 40th best player on the player rater.

i dont know if thats true.

11 2b eligible players/yahoo last year finished top 90 overall (thats not inculding moose, keston, biggio)

21 outfield finished top 90 overall

you only need 1 2b. you need minimum 4  outfielders in standard 12 team 3 outfield league. sure there is more depth outside top 90 that are serviceable

 

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen
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On 2/24/2020 at 4:26 PM, colepenhagen said:

last thing i will post as i dont dislike gleyber actually really like him as a baseball player but what chance does he have to even return top 40 value?

using last years stats (not perfect but it kinds puts stat line into perspective.

 

5x5 season rank last year

 

jdm 31 overall - 304 36/105/98 2 sb

blackmon 32 overall - 314 32/86/112/ 2 sb

soler 33 overall- 265 48/117/ 95 3 sb

springer 39 overall- 39/96/96 6sb 292

 

so how does gleyber return value at his top 30 adp? assuming stats in baseball stay similar to last year.

goldy 31 overall 2 years ago 290 33/83/95 7 sb (that line is basically yuli/gleyber last year that was good for 60/61 overall)

 

so last year numbers really up across baseball. will that continue?

How do they rank among just among other hitters? ADP is usually bias towards hitting because pitchers are riskier.

Edited by Slatykamora

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On 2/24/2020 at 5:26 PM, colepenhagen said:

last thing i will post as i dont dislike gleyber actually really like him as a baseball player but what chance does he have to even return top 40 value?

using last years stats (not perfect but it kinds puts stat line into perspective.

 

5x5 season rank last year

 

jdm 31 overall - 304 36/105/98 2 sb

blackmon 32 overall - 314 32/86/112/ 2 sb

soler 33 overall- 265 48/117/ 95 3 sb

springer 39 overall- 39/96/96 6sb 292

 

so how does gleyber return value at his top 30 adp? assuming stats in baseball stay similar to last year.

goldy 31 overall 2 years ago 290 33/83/95 7 sb (that line is basically yuli/gleyber last year that was good for 60/61 overall)

 

so last year numbers really up across baseball. will that continue?

 

So we're going to completely ignore position depth? Because next to catcher, second base is BY FAR the shallowest position this year. 

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7 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

A second baseman putting up those numbers is more valuable for roster construction than an OF doing it. It's not as simple as comparing ADP to player rater. 

 

And even if it were, if I took someone 30th overall I'd be content with them being the 40th best player on the player rater.

 

Exactly! That's a very lazy and flawed comparison.

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5 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

you only need 1 2b. you need minimum 4  outfielders in standard 12 team 3 outfield league. sure there is more depth outside top 90 that are serviceable

 

All my leagues use 5 OF & MI . and  C, 1B, 2B, 3B CI .

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36 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

All my leagues use 5 OF & MI . and  C, 1B, 2B, 3B CI .

 

Mine too. 

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