jmcampbe11

Tiered SP Rankings

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Working through my personal tiered SP ranking for standard 10 roto leagues and this is what I have so far. I ranked 70+ SPs assuming that most teams need to carry about six to hit their starts limit for the year. Thought I'd post it here, just in case anyone wants to discuss. If not, no big deal.Personally, I think I'll be looking to land four pitchers from the first three tiers, especially if I don't get one of the big four.

 

Tier 1

Cole, deGrom, Verlander, Scherzer

 

Tier 2

Buehler, Bieber, Strasburg, Sale, Snell, Flaherty, Corbin, Morton, Castillo, Giolito, Kershaw, Greinke, Nola, Clevinger

 

Tier 3

Glasnow, Paddack, Darvish, Severino, Syndergaard, Woodruff, Bauer, Kluber, Berrios, Soroka, Ohtani, Carrasco, Lynn, Ryu, Gray

 

Tier 4

Rodriguez, Montas, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Price, Gallen, Luzardo, Lamet, Fried, Hendricks, Ray, Boyd, Minor, Maeda, Urias

 

Tier 5

Heaney, Folty, Marquez, Tanaka, Weaver, McCullers, Martinez, Manaea, Smith, Stroman, Odorizzi. Keuchel, Lucchesi, Puk 

 

Tier 6

Paxton, Canning, Stripling, Keller, McCay, Hamels, May, Chirinos, Richards, Yarbrough, J.Gray, Mikolas  

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I'm huge on Tier 2/3. Solid potential and bouncebacks in those tiers (Snell/Severino/Woodruff). Starts to really drop off after that. I'll be going pitching early.

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17 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

I'm huge on Tier 2/3. Solid potential and bouncebacks in those tiers (Snell/Severino/Woodruff). Starts to really drop off after that. I'll be going pitching early.

The fascinating thing about Tier 2/3 (and those SPs around SP20-30 etc) is they historically have the highest bust rate relative to draft slot. 

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3 minutes ago, Magoo said:

The fascinating thing about Tier 2/3 (and those SPs around SP20-30 etc) is they historically have the highest bust rate relative to draft slot. 

I mean, sure, a bust can come from anywhere. I think 50% of this Tier 1 has Father Time knocking on their door, and we all know that Father Time is undefeated.

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5 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

I mean, sure, a bust can come from anywhere. I think 50% of this Tier 1 has Father Time knocking on their door, and we all know that Father Time is undefeated.

 

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/1148133/father-time-is-not-undefeated-stop-putting-that-loser-on-a-pedestal

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3 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Why post an article written by Barstool on Tom Brady..? Father Time is undefeated - everyone stops producing at some point. That's not subjective. The question isn't "if"... its "when". 

 

pick your poison, an older pitcher who has a proven track record or a younger player who hasn't done it (or done it consistently). Risk either way.

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Just now, Members_Only_76 said:

 

pick your poison, an older pitcher who has a proven track record or a younger player who hasn't done it (or done it consistently). Risk either way.

True, but then again, FBB is one big game of risk.

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Just now, Fbaseballgod said:

I’m fairly certain Verlander is a celestial being and therefore immune to father Time

It’s upton man 

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Nice list. I'd move Bauer down, Maeda down, Heaney down. I'd move Urias up, put Civale on the list in Tier 5, Sandy Alcantara tier 6. I'd also remove Jon Gray.

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8 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Nice list. I'd move Bauer down, Maeda down, Heaney down. I'd move Urias up, put Civale on the list in Tier 5, Sandy Alcantara tier 6. I'd also remove Jon Gray.

 

Here's my rationale. 

Bauer - 200+ Ks are what separates him from the Tier 4 SPs. 

Maeda / Heaney - Both have shown enough flashes of goodness to separate them from the SPs listed in Tier 5. 

Urias - Bumped down to Tier 4 because of expected innings limitations. I can't imagine he pitches more than 130 innings this season. 

Alcantara - Have no problem adding him to Tier 6

J. Gray - I'd personally never own him, but someone will draft him in a 10 team league...especially coming off a season in which his era was under 4.00.

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14 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Nice list. I'd move Bauer down, Maeda down, Heaney down. I'd move Urias up, put Civale on the list in Tier 5, Sandy Alcantara tier 6. I'd also remove Jon Gray.

Totally forgot about Civale .. good call

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8 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Totally forgot about Civale .. good call

 

Completely agree, although I think he's more of a top tier 6 guy for me. Don't seem much difference between Civale and Canning. 

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1 minute ago, WahooManiac said:

Gallen?

 

Love him. I have him him Tier 4 and he might be my favorite of that group. EIther him or Montas I think. 

As I look at this list, it feels like Lamet might be a Tier too high. Thoughts? 

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6 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Sandy alcantara has a lot of upside (imo). 

 

He does...but his strikeout rate somewhat limits his potential I think. I still like Caleb Smith a bit more. 

Edited by jmcampbe11

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4 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Love him. I have him him Tier 4 and he might be my favorite of that group. EIther him or Montas I think. 

As I look at this list, it feels like Lamet might be a Tier too high. Thoughts? 

 

Nah, tier 4 seems fine for Lamet

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I personally think Yonny Chirinos is criminally underrated. He's going to be my 5th or 6th starter in A LOT of leagues this season. 

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14 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

I personally think Yonny Chirinos is criminally underrated. He's going to be my 5th or 6th starter in A LOT of leagues this season. 


I also really like him. I like Folty a lot this year too toward the beginning of tier 5. He just, just like Syndergaard was finding his slider toward the end of the season. 

Edited by BostonCajun
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After the move to Toronto I don't see how you can have Ryu in a tier above Hendricks.  Ryu too high I think

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34 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Here's my rationale. 

Bauer - 200+ Ks are what separates him from the Tier 4 SPs. 

Maeda / Heaney - Both have shown enough flashes of goodness to separate them from the SPs listed in Tier 5. 

Urias - Bumped down to Tier 4 because of expected innings limitations. I can't imagine he pitches more than 130 innings this season. 

Alcantara - Have no problem adding him to Tier 6

J. Gray - I'd personally never own him, but someone will draft him in a 10 team league...especially coming off a season in which his era was under 4.00.

Not much difference between Ray and Bauer at this point except Ray hurts in QS leagues. Bauer has had 1 year with an ERA under 4 in his career. But then again I am also on record disagreeing with his current draft price... And for the record I am a fan of the talent.

There's a few 200k pitchers already in Tier 4... Ray, Boyd, ERod, Mad Bum, Minor all did it last year.

 

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4 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Not much difference between Ray and Bauer at this point except Ray hurts in QS leagues. Bauer has had 1 year with an ERA under 4 in his career. But then again I am also on record disagreeing with his current draft price... And for the record I am a fan of the talent.

There's a few 200k pitchers already in Tier 4... Ray, Boyd, ERod, Mad Bum, Minor all did it last year.

 

 

No, there really isn't. I might not move him down (this year), but I probably won't draft him at that price. 

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12 minutes ago, Magoo said:

After the move to Toronto I don't see how you can have Ryu in a tier above Hendricks.  Ryu too high I think

 

...because he's coming off seasons with with eras of 1.97 (2018) and 2.32 (2018 with a 1.01 WHIP both years. Even if you discount him for the change in home ball parks I still think Ryu's floor is Hendrick's ceiling. 

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