jmcampbe11

Tiered SS Rankings

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Last one for the day. Tiered SS rankings for standard 10 team roto leagues with both a SS and MI slot. Amazingly deep position this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable with just about anyone through Tier 6. 

TIER 1

Lindor, Story, Turner, Bregman

TIER 2

Tatis, Baez, Bogaerts, Torres, Machado

TIER 3

Mondesi, Villar

TIER 4

Semien, Correa, Bichette

TIER 5

Anderson, Seager, Polanco

TIER 6

Andrus, Rosario, Segura, Gregorius

TIER 7

DeJong, Swanson, Newman

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Seems like too many tiers for such little separation.  Semien and Torres very similar (Torres homepark advantage, Semien speed.)

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1 hour ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

Seems like too many tiers for such little separation.  Semien and Torres very similar (Torres homepark advantage, Semien speed.)

 

Fair point, but I don't view them as similar. I'm not sold on Semien's evaluation or his power. 

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2 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Looks good, but I think I’d bump Correa and Bichette up to tier 3

 

I think the SBs that Villar and Mondesi provide are going to be even more valuable this season than most. That's why I ranked them ahead. I'm also not sure Correa is really any better than Seager. Love Bichette, but he's unproven. This time last year people were drafting Guerrero in the 5th / 6th round and he didn't quite deliver on expectations. 

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49 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Fair point, but I don't view them as similar. I'm not sold on Semien's evaluation or his power. 

 

LOL, alright this thread is done.  What evaluation are you using?  Sabermetrics?  wRC+? Contact rate? Semien meets or exceeds Torres in nearly every measure. Semien hit better against better competition in a harder ballpark last year.  Torres hit 13HR against the Orioles.  Against the rest of the league he was okay, but nothing amazing.  Semien smashed good pitching in Oakland.

Not saying Torres doesn't have potential, and he plays in a good ballpark, but Semien arguably has the higher floor in 2020.

I mean Semien further dropped his K% down to 13.7% last year, and maintained a +80% contact rate.  Basically his profile is 2016 Mookie Betts right now (with a better BB%, though I would cap Semien SBs at 15 at this point in his career.) 

Edited by Hellgrammite

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1 minute ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

LOL, alright this thread is done.  What evaluation are you using?  Sabermetrics?  wRC+? Contact rate? Semien dominates in nearly every measure. Semien hit better against better competition in a harder ballpark last year.  Torres hit 13HR against the Orioles.  Against the rest of the league he was okay, but nothing amazing.  Semien smashed good pitching in Oakland.

Not saying Torres doesn't have potential, and he plays in a good ballpark, but Semien arguably has the higher floor in 2020.

I mean Semien further dropped his K% down to 13.7% last year, and maintained a +80% contact rate.  Basically his profile is 2016 Mookie Betts right now (though I would cap Semien SBs at 15 right now.)

 

My gut. And based on FantasyPros consensus ADP Torres is being drafted 30th and Semien's being drafted 83rrd.So it seems like the vact majority value him considerably more. I guess time will tell who's right. 

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Why is the Torres 13 HRs vs the Orioles thing relevant when the Yankees/Orioles are still in the AL east? Semien's power output has been very up and down in his career. Torres power has been greater the Semiens both years. That is before accounting for any presumption of growth for the 23 year old Torres.

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Why is the Torres 13 HRs vs the Orioles thing relevant when the Yankees/Orioles are still in the AL east? Semien's power output has been very up and down in his career. Torres power has been greater the Semiens both years. That is before accounting for any presumption of growth for the 23 year old Torres.

 

Because there is also the possibility of regression. Semien improved not just in power, but his hitting profile improved in great ways.

My point is not that Semien is necessarily going to edge out Torres overall in stats, my point is that they may finish much closer than people think, and if you can get a similar player 3-4 rounds later, that is savings right there.  That is why tiers are important.  Show you overall similar players, and then you take into account ADPs to see the values come the draft.

Tiers are supposed to not use ADPs to back up their points. You look at the stats and abilities, and put those players into tiers.  Then from those tiers, you can spot ADP vales come draft day. Ex:  somebody nabs Torres to start the 3rd round, just wait and grab Semien at the 7th.  Your 3rd round you grab Biebier or Alonso

Using ADPs to justify or create tiers defeats the whole purpose.

Edited by Hellgrammite
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9 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

Because there is also the possibility of regression. Semien improved not just in power, but his hitting profile improved in great ways.

My point is not that Semien is necessarily going to edge out Torres overall in stats, my point is that they may finish much closer than people think, and if you can get a similar player 3-4 rounds later, that is savings right there.  That is why tiers are important.  Show you overall similar players, and then you take into account ADPs to see the values come the draft.

Tiers are supposed to not use ADPs to back up their points. You look at the stats and abilities, and put those players into tiers.  Then from those tiers, you can spot ADP vales come draft day. Ex:  somebody nabs Torres to start the 3rd round, just wait and grab Semien at the 7th.  Your 3rd round you grab Biebier or Alonso

Using ADPs to justify or create tiers defeats the whole purpose.

 

I told you it was my gut / opinion. I don't believe in Semien's power bump and he's tiered correctly based on my opinion. I'm also taking into consideration that Torres is still young (only 23) and maturing. If you want to hang your hat on a 29 year old coming off a career year then go right ahead. I might as well, but even in the tier I have him ranked I'd probably draft Bichette over him. 

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Good list.  I think id just combine 3rd and 4th tiers, but i get it's the sb vs power guys thing going on there.  

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23 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

Because there is also the possibility of regression. Semien improved not just in power, but his hitting profile improved in great ways.

My point is not that Semien is necessarily going to edge out Torres overall in stats, my point is that they may finish much closer than people think, and if you can get a similar player 3-4 rounds later, that is savings right there.  That is why tiers are important.  Show you overall similar players, and then you take into account ADPs to see the values come the draft.

Tiers are supposed to not use ADPs to back up their points. You look at the stats and abilities, and put those players into tiers.  Then from those tiers, you can spot ADP vales come draft day. Ex:  somebody nabs Torres to start the 3rd round, just wait and grab Semien at the 7th.  Your 3rd round you grab Biebier or Alonso

Using ADPs to justify or create tiers defeats the whole purpose.

Without knowing if the ball going to be juiced again. Yes, i'd put Torres a teir above Semien.

EDIT: Torres ADP also has to do with being a 2B. A much more shallow position. I'm probably not drafting either of these guys as my primary SS. He'd still deserve a higher Tier even w/o 2B factor.

Edited by Slatykamora

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43 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Without knowing if the ball going to be juiced again. Yes, i'd put Torres a teir above Semien.

EDIT: Torres ADP also has to do with being a 2B. A much more shallow position. I'm probably not drafting either of these guys as my primary SS. He'd still deserve a higher Tier even w/o 2B factor.

 

Agreed. Jmcampbe11 noted the high ADP as justification, but that is because he is also 2B.   At 2B he is arguably a top 1 or 2 choice, while at SS you can make the argument he isn't even top 8.  Shows how insanely deep SS is compared to 2B.  SS has roughly 17 players getting draft in the first 100 picks.  17!!!  Shows you there are only like 3 tiers for the top 20 SS given how high everybody is getting drafted.

Edited by Hellgrammite

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On 2/18/2020 at 4:58 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

Last one for the day. Tiered SS rankings for standard 10 team roto leagues with both a SS and MI slot. Amazingly deep position this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable with just about anyone through Tier 6. 

TIER 1

Lindor, Story, Turner, Bregman

TIER 2

Tatis, Baez, Bogaerts, Torres, Machado

TIER 3

Mondesi, Villar

TIER 4

Semien, Correa, Bichette

TIER 5

Anderson, Seager, Polanco

TIER 6

Andrus, Rosario, Segura, Gregorius

TIER 7

DeJong, Swanson, Newman

 

Made some adjustments last night.  I'll probably get some flack for bumping Bregman down, but if he regresses to 35 HRs (which I think he will) I think he's closer to tier 2 than tier 1.  


TIER 1 - Lindor, Story, Turner

TIER 2 - Bregman, Tatis, Baez

TIER 3 - Torres, Bogaerts, Machado, Mondesi

TIER 4 - Villar, Semien, Correa, Bichette

TIER 5 - Anderson, Seager, Polanco

TIER 6 - Rosario, Segura, Gregorius, Andrus

TIER 7 - DeJong, Newman, Swanson, Chavis

 
 
 
 

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Xander is tier 2.  His breakout was no fluke.  This is who he is.  He isn't a one trick pony like Mondesi not that I'm not grateful for having that one Mondesi trick in a dynasty league.

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43 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Xander is tier 2.  His breakout was no fluke.  This is who he is.  He isn't a one trick pony like Mondesi not that I'm not grateful for having that one Mondesi trick in a dynasty league.

 

Everyone in Tier 2 has more power upside. Maybe you can bump Mondesi down a tier, but I think Bogaerts is pretty comparable to Torres and Machado. I personally don't buy the power spike AT ALL. Plus he'll have considerably less RBI opportunities without Mookie leading off. The Red Sox lineup this year, in general, is going to be pretty horrendous. 

Edited by jmcampbe11

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18 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Everyone in Tier 2 has more power upside. Maybe you can bump Mondesi down a tier, but I think Bogaerts is pretty comparable to Torres and Machado. I personally don't buy the power spike AT ALL. Plus he'll have considerably less RBI opportunities without Mookie leading off. The Red Sox lineup this year, in general, is going to be pretty horrendous. 

 

Thats taking it a bit far

Xander - JD - Devers - Benny who could bounce back as well is a solid top 4 compared to many MLB teams

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Agree deep.  I'd even feel fine with Nick Ahmed, although prefereably at MI.  More of a volume play and BA could hurt.  But was extended and should play everyday. 

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10 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

Thats taking it a bit far

Xander - JD - Devers - Benny who could bounce back as well is a solid top 4 compared to many MLB teams

 

I'll give you the first three, but Benintendi is an average offensive player at best. Getting Verdugo back will help, but my point is that's a very easy lineup to pitch around because there's such a significant drop off after the big three. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are going to be battling it out for third place this season. 

Edited by jmcampbe11

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