Ry34No

Starlin Castro 2020 Outlook

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Has not had much fantasy appeal the last two seasons with Miami. But considering the team contexts he put up solid numbers. Now he goes to the defending champs with a much better lineup, park and a report came out that he could be batting 3rd! In my opinion he is a steal and could be a very solid MI or CI given his multi eligibility in some leagues. What’s your guys thoughts? 

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If Starlin Castro is hitting 3rd the Nats are in trouble.

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

If Starlin Castro is hitting 3rd the Nats are in trouble.

disagree.

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Your 3 hitter should be your best or 2nd best hitter. That should not be starlin castro. Castro is a nice 6 hitter (or 7). I dont want him in the top of my lineup.

 

His career .740 OPS and 97 wRC+ probably shows that. He hit .270 last year with a .300 OBP. He makes decent contact but he shouldn't be relied on to produce a good portion of your offense. 

Edited by 2ndCitySox

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I can see both sides. I think it is more that they have a lot of speed or contact first guys over power. Such as Turner, Robles and Eaton. Soto is the only middle of the order power threat other than maybe Thames against righties. 
 

I’m intrigued more for the fantasy side of things. If he can hit 22 hrs 86 RBIs in Miami, with the same ball this year I wouldn’t count out .280 25 90+ 

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22 was a career high. 

Sorry I just dont see the appeal unless its NL only.

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1 hour ago, Ry34No said:

I can see both sides. I think it is more that they have a lot of speed or contact first guys over power. Such as Turner, Robles and Eaton. Soto is the only middle of the order power threat other than maybe Thames against righties. 
 

I’m intrigued more for the fantasy side of things. If he can hit 22 hrs 86 RBIs in Miami, with the same ball this year I wouldn’t count out .280 25 90+ 

 

I just don't see the playing time or the spot in order holding up. Nationals may shift their order plenty. The chances Castro hits at the 3 spot for more than a few games is extremely unlikely IMO.

Add in the fact that they have a bunch of veterans that can rotate and play his position. Thames and Zimmerman have 1B locked down, and Trea has SS locked down. Outside of that, there is Castro, Kieboom, Cabrera, and Kendrick. All 4 of them are going to play. So the upside is pretty limited just from a playing time perspective. As for talent, yes he has 20 HR power but doesn't provide much else. The RBI and R could be bumped with a better team, but again that is dependent on the playing time which I don't think will be there.

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9 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Your 3 hitter should be your best or 2nd best hitter. That should not be starlin castro. Castro is a nice 6 hitter (or 7). I dont want him in the top of my lineup.

 

His career .740 OPS and 97 wRC+ probably shows that. He hit .270 last year with a .300 OBP. He makes decent contact but he shouldn't be relied on to produce a good portion of your offense. 

This, there is no way he should he 3rd for the Nats...Will not be on any of my teams as he is IMO an average MLB player

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17 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

If Starlin Castro is hitting 3rd the Nats are in trouble.

According to online blurbs Trea Turner is the one they are seriously thinking of moving to the 3rd spot.

But Starlin looks like he will get a lot of ABs with the Nats though.  Maybe every day even.  Poor OBP but a better line-up and both 2nd base and 3rd base eligibility equals a decent bench bat for me.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

According to online blurbs Trea Turner is the one they are seriously thinking of moving to the 3rd spot.

But Starlin looks like he will get a lot of ABs with the Nats though.  Maybe every day even.  Poor OBP but a better line-up and both 2nd base and 3rd base eligibility equals a decent bench bat for me.

 

Not sure why people think this is a given. Kieboom, Kendrick, Cabrera, and Castro will be fighting for 2 spots. There's no reason Castro should have any priority over those 3.

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Posted (edited)

Dude has some super sleeper appeal to him imo, after the all star break last year he hit 16   HR , and a 302 average in one of the worst parks in the league in Miami to hit hr’s out of.  Before responding to this post with any negative responses please read this article 1st  https://www.pitcherlist.com/why-starlin-castro-deserves-your-attention/

 

after the all all star break he changed his batting stance/ approach and it worked wonders for him , by doing so it changed his launch 🚀  angle considerably as shown in the diagram in the article as well

 

- playing in a better hitters park

- likely batting 3rd in a stacked lineup

- 2b and 3b eligible 

- still in his prime

- has already said he will use same stance and approach he used after all star break last year as it drastically changed his results

 

im buying everywhere with that 250 adp , if the dude keeps it up he can be a fantasy gold mine  

 

 

Edited by Brye
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He's basically free, so little risk.

That said, I think eventually they pull the trigger on Robles leading off and Trea hitting 3rd.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/22/2020 at 3:52 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

If Starlin Castro is hitting 3rd the Nats are in trouble.

Yeah I looked at Washington’s projected batting order and yikes. I think they might miss the playoffs with this and their shaky bullpen. Their aces can’t do everything.

1. Turner SS

2. Eaton RF

3. Castro 2B

4. Soto LF

5. Thames 1B

6. Robles CF

7. Cabrera/Kieboom 3B

8. Suzuki/Gomes C

9. P

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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On 2/22/2020 at 5:55 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Your 3 hitter should be your best or 2nd best hitter. That should not be starlin castro. Castro is a nice 6 hitter (or 7). I dont want him in the top of my lineup.

 

His career .740 OPS and 97 wRC+ probably shows that. He hit .270 last year with a .300 OBP. He makes decent contact but he shouldn't be relied on to produce a good portion of your offense. 

This. A playoff team should not have him batting third.

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10 hours ago, Brye said:

Dude has some super sleeper appeal to him imo, after the all star break last year he hit 16   HR , and a 302 average in one of the worst parks in the league in Miami to hit hr’s out of.  Before responding to this post with any negative responses please read this article 1st  https://www.pitcherlist.com/why-starlin-castro-deserves-your-attention/

 

after the all all star break he changed his batting stance/ approach and it worked wonders for him , by doing so it changed his launch 🚀  angle considerably as shown in the diagram in the article as well

 

- playing in a better hitters park

- likely batting 3rd in a stacked lineup

- 2b and 3b eligible 

- still in his prime

- has already said he will use same stance and approach he used after all star break last year as it drastically changed his results

 

im buying everywhere with that 250 adp , if the dude keeps it up he can be a fantasy gold mine  

 

 

They’re anything but a stacked lineup and I hope you’re right for your sake. 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

They’re anything but a stacked lineup and I hope you’re right for your sake. 

For my sake? He’s a bench player for me who could become a starter if he continues to do what he did last year In the 2nd half, don’t think anyone would not start someone if they start killing it and continuities a trend.  

 

And by stacked lineup I meant he has two guys ahead of him that are on base machines , and turner always in scoring position, then he has Soto hitting behind him so there will be PLENTY of rbi and run opportunity’s for Castro.  Funny how some of you don’t get how a change In approach can turn someone’s whole career around, example Jose Bautista, never a superior power bat , then out of no where in 2010 at age 31 he hits mad HR’s and does it for 5 straight years.  He changed his stance and launch angle and was offensive mvp for fantasy teams for years.  

 

For the Nats to bat him 3rd obviously they think he can do big things and have already publicly said they believe he can continue his 2nd half of last year , with his new approach .  So at 250adp I’ll take someone who’s hitting 3rd with a top 10 player and a top 15 players hitting in front and behind him..... yeah I’ll take someone else ....... I think not, for your sakes you better hope your right and I’m not.

 

not much not too like at 250+ adp , who could absolutely crush his adp and become a league winner

 

Edited by Brye

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Pretty sure Rendon led league in rbis last year , gotta love Trea and was top 3 in runs gotta love Soto ..... if he hits close to 30hrs , he’s getting 100 RBIs and 100 runs with a 290-310 average, at 250 adp that’s 2nd or 3rd round value ...... he did it in Miami the 2nd hardest park in mlb to hit HRs out of and he hit 16 .... 16 HRs in 2 and a half months with a new batting stance, now he’s hitting in a easier ballpark compared to Miami, man your ill informed my friend , these are moves that win ships not drafting dudes like Dylan cease that hasn’t had any Mlb success yet and so on and so on with your usual late round fliers .

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I agree, great value for where he's going.  In fantrax leagues where there are CI and MI spots, he is super valuable with both CI / MI eligibility as a guy you can get almost for free.

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8 hours ago, Brye said:

For my sake? He’s a bench player for me who could become a starter if he continues to do what he did last year In the 2nd half, don’t think anyone would not start someone if they start killing it and continuities a trend.  

 

And by stacked lineup I meant he has two guys ahead of him that are on base machines , and turner always in scoring position, then he has Soto hitting behind him so there will be PLENTY of rbi and run opportunity’s for Castro.  Funny how some of you don’t get how a change In approach can turn someone’s whole career around, example Jose Bautista, never a superior power bat , then out of no where in 2010 at age 31 he hits mad HR’s and does it for 5 straight years.  He changed his stance and launch angle and was offensive mvp for fantasy teams for years.  

 

For the Nats to bat him 3rd obviously they think he can do big things and have already publicly said they believe he can continue his 2nd half of last year , with his new approach .  So at 250adp I’ll take someone who’s hitting 3rd with a top 10 player and a top 15 players hitting in front and behind him..... yeah I’ll take someone else ....... I think not, for your sakes you better hope your right and I’m not.

 

not much not too like at 250+ adp , who could absolutely crush his adp and become a league winner

 

What would be your projection for his best outcome? (use a 162 game projection, for simplicity, if you feel like it).

My problem with castro is that I dont see it likely he hits 3rd for much of the season (if at all). Sure hes an interesting flyer in the 200+ range, but so are a lot of guys. 

You make a compelling argument, so I would be intrigued in a league that uses average. However, I cant for the life of me see Castro being a "league winner". 

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

What would be your projection for his best outcome? (use a 162 game projection, for simplicity, if you feel like it).

My problem with castro is that I dont see it likely he hits 3rd for much of the season (if at all). Sure hes an interesting flyer in the 200+ range, but so are a lot of guys. 

You make a compelling argument, so I would be intrigued in a league that uses average. However, I cant for the life of me see Castro being a "league winner". 

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/why-starlin-castro-deserves-your-attention/

 

What made me a believer was this article , you have to read the whole thing tho bro it’s very good and I’m telling you

 

did  mention he’s a career 330 hitter in the nationals park

Edited by Brye

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39 minutes ago, Brye said:

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/why-starlin-castro-deserves-your-attention/

 

What made me a believer was this article , you have to read the whole thing tho bro it’s very good and I’m telling you

 

did  mention he’s a career 330 hitter in the nationals park

I dont disagree there is potential here, and at his ADP, it is a steal... assuming he lives up to anything we remotely saw during the 2nd half of last year. For a late round flier, he is totally worth it, and i also agree that this is a type of player that you grab in the last round or two (or WW) that if he has a 2nd half type of season from start-end, it could win you championships. I am reserving judgement though untill i see it was nothing more than a hot streak and that his actual mechanic changes are the source for his output. 

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1 hour ago, Brye said:

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/why-starlin-castro-deserves-your-attention/

 

What made me a believer was this article , you have to read the whole thing tho bro it’s very good and I’m telling you

 

did  mention he’s a career 330 hitter in the nationals park

I think it's interesting information, and again I have no issue with taking a flyer.

But we have a LARGE sample size on who Starlin Castro is.

He's played the game for 10 years.  In that time he's been a very good contact guy, doesn't walk a lot, and hasn't hit for a whole lot of power.  His career triple slash is .280/.319/.414 over 1470 games.  To me that's more telling than a second half sample size post adjustment.

I'd liken him to an IF version of Nick Markakis.  Which, even if the second half numbers power numbers aren't sustainable (let's say he adjusts his new launch angle approach to compensate for balls with less juice, hypothetically) still has value.  

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https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/starlin-castro-516770?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

Really bad Statcast numbers. xBA is .268 xSLG is .432. Exit Velocity and Hard Hit % both below average. 
 

In the second half he started hitting more fly balls (36.0 to 30.0 %), less ground balls (43.0% to 52.1%). HR/FB% jumped from 6.7% to 18.4%.

 

Career GB% 49.6%
Career HR/FB% 9.1% but he did have 16.2% and 15.0% as a Yankee. 
 

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35 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/starlin-castro-516770?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

Really bad Statcast numbers. xBA is .268 xSLG is .432. Exit Velocity and Hard Hit % both below average. 
 

In the second half he started hitting more fly balls (36.0 to 30.0 %), less ground balls (43.0% to 52.1%). HR/FB% jumped from 6.7% to 18.4%.

 

Career GB% 49.6%
Career HR/FB% 9.1% but he did have 16.2% and 15.0% as a Yankee. 
 

Hate having to repeat myself, different stance and approach read the article it’s not even close too the same stance aka launch 🚀 angle changed aka more fly balls aka more home runs aka more rbis and runs ...... 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Brye said:

Hate having to repeat myself, different stance and approach read the article it’s not even close too the same stance aka launch 🚀 angle changed aka more fly balls aka more home runs aka more rbis and runs ...... 

 

 

 

 

 

I wasn’t arguing with you, I was posting what I saw about him when I looked up his Statcast numbers and splits.

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