bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Time to start wondering how will the virus affect MLB and other sporting events this year.  CDC talking about measures to contain virus in an outbreak (closing schools and businesses- or switching to more online).  Clearly sporting events will be obvious events to get cancelled in an outbreak 9lots were cancelled in China and other places).  But an outbreak unlikely to affect whole country at once. Could be games cancelled in one area and played everywhere else.  Or could move games I guess.  Still early, but guarantee the MLB is talking about this. 

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I feel bad for any MLB players that signed with a Chinese club over the winter.

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55 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Armani holds Milan Fashion Week show in an empty theater because of coronavirus

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My guess is that baseball would be the least impacted as it's a summer sport and Covid-19 is spread much like the regular seasonal flu and the flu fades out in the warm months due to folks not being in close quarters inside with stale air and because the humidity actually lowers the spread radius of coughing/sneezing/respiration moisture. 

What the US is basically doing is trying to buy time to get to the spring and especially summer months - which the hope is to then buy time with the heat in hopes a vaccine is developed by the start of next years flu season.   I think the NHL and NBA end of seasons could be at risk.  I'd definitely stop going to games(if I ever attended to begin with) and I'd also avid concerts and going to the gym(those cheap places are germ factories - especially with sick folks thinking they can sweat out the illness quicker).  

Avoid crowds, shop at off-peak times when necessary - wash your hands like a madman and don't touch your face.  Also probably stock up on 2wks to a months worth of food necessities and toiletries and if you are on meds go to your doctor and get a months supply on top of what you have now (ie always have a months supply stashed). I think the US will have voluntary quarantines in break out areas with gov services shutting down, buses not running etc and anybody who can work from home will be encouraged to.  Could see an early summer break as well at schools. 

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Hopefully the Mariners cancel their season in fears of it hitting their stadium and 13 fans left.  

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10 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

My guess is that baseball would be the least impacted as it's a summer sport and Covid-19 is spread much like the regular seasonal flu and the flu fades out in the warm months due to folks not being in close quarters inside with stale air and because the humidity actually lowers the spread radius of coughing/sneezing/respiration moisture. 

What the US is basically doing is trying to buy time to get to the spring and especially summer months - which the hope is to then buy time with the heat in hopes a vaccine is developed by the start of next years flu season.   I think the NHL and NBA end of seasons could be at risk.  I'd definitely stop going to games(if I ever attended to begin with) and I'd also avid concerts and going to the gym(those cheap places are germ factories - especially with sick folks thinking they can sweat out the illness quicker).  

Avoid crowds, shop at off-peak times when necessary - wash your hands like a madman and don't touch your face.  Also probably stock up on 2wks to a months worth of food necessities and toiletries and if you are on meds go to your doctor and get a months supply on top of what you have now (ie always have a months supply stashed). I think the US will have voluntary quarantines in break out areas with gov services shutting down, buses not running etc and anybody who can work from home will be encouraged to.  Could see an early summer break as well at schools. 

 

This is a reasonable take and it think it will play something out like this.  Although while it is theoretical that the heat will mitigate the spread, it is still unclear if it will and to what degree (no pun intended).  The good news is that China seems to be getting spread under control, so that is a good sign public health actions can limit spread. Unless China is under reporting new cases, of course. 

Edited by bluefrogguy
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Coronavirus is still young, and can grow this year to be the 20/20 player we all know it to be.

Oh, wait, typically Rotoworld response.

The coronavirus might have a more limited effect in America as the weather starts warming up and people are less confined.  Similar pattern to standard flue.

 

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I think it will have nearly zero effect on any players (Maybe one or two players miss a few games), but it’s had an absolutely devastating effect on all my shares of Visa and AMD :(

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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9 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

Coronavirus is still young, and can grow this year to be the 20/20 player we all know it to be

I don't know, I see it as more of a 15/30 virus. Not too much raw power but above average speed

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4 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

The hysteria over this is ridiculous. 

Every year its the end of the world... Y2K, mad cow, swine flu, bird flu, sars, mers, end of Mayan calendar, last year's mosquitos... Or this January when the media hyped up WW3...

The flu kills 291,000 - 646,000 people worldwide every single year. 3,000 have died from Coronavirus so far. We'll be fine.

Coronavirus is not a real threat. The media hysterics and driving people to a panic is the damage being done. 

This should not impact MLB games... Unless the league caves to hysterics.

What should we do? I'd start by refinancing your house at these rates. If you have money to invest time to buy stocks that tumbled without any reason other than hurd mentality.

As for fantasy baseball... Zero impact and I'm not making a single adjustment to any player values or my strategy because of it.

Yeah I am more worried about the monstrous 4.1 KM asteroid that is hurling towards Earth and due around April... 

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On 2/25/2020 at 10:15 PM, Hellgrammite said:

Coronavirus is still young, and can grow this year to be the 20/20 player we all know it to be.

We've seen plenty of diseases put up big numbers overseas only to come to the US and get exposed by big league pitching... wait....

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On 2/25/2020 at 7:15 PM, Hellgrammite said:

Coronavirus is still young, and can grow this year to be the 20/20 player we all know it to be.

 

I truly believe this may be the greatest comment in the history of these boards. 😂

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On 2/26/2020 at 8:06 AM, Ecofolux said:

I don't know, I see it as more of a 15/30 virus. Not too much raw power but above average speed

I think this virus is a BUST

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

The hysteria over this is ridiculous. 

Every year its the end of the world... Y2K, mad cow, swine flu, bird flu, sars, mers, end of Mayan calendar, last year's mosquitos... Or this January when the media hyped up WW3...

The flu kills 291,000 - 646,000 people worldwide every single year. 3,000 have died from Coronavirus so far. We'll be fine.

Coronavirus is not a real threat. The media hysterics and driving people to a panic is the damage being done. 

This should not impact MLB games... Unless the league caves to hysterics.

What should we do? I'd start by refinancing your house at these rates. If you have money to invest time to buy stocks that tumbled without any reason other than hurd mentality.

As for fantasy baseball... Zero impact and I'm not making a single adjustment to any player values or my strategy because of it.

 

The hysteria is a little much, but it doesn't lack concern. It's about 10-20 times more deadly than the flu, so if it gets that exposure you will see those massive numbers and more. It just has not spread that much. Wash your hands, and be health conscious like you would during any flu season and you will be fine. It's not like the coronavirus is "catchier" than the flu. If you have older family members, it is certainly something to be mindful of...I wouldn't be sending them to China or Korea any time soon. 

 

I do think as the weather warms up, it will die out, so probably won't affect baseball. 

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Every year its the end of the world... Y2K

 

I get kinda of ticked off when people lump Y2K with Hysteria that did not pan out.  There was no crisis because a lot of people worked really hard and got the job done (for years).

Y2K was a ticking time bomb that people were discussing long before the term Y2K entered the popular vernacular.  It is estimated that the US spent in excess of 100 billion and years to fix the problem.

The unknown on Dec 31, 1999 was did we miss something?? Was there some corner of technology we forgot to look at?? Fortunately, most events were minor.  Be thankful that that the problem was tackled on a global scale before the problems could occur.

 

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3 minutes ago, rabaak said:

Every year its the end of the world... Y2K

 

I get kinda of ticked off when people lump Y2K with Hysteria that did not pan out.  There was no crisis because a lot of people worked really hard and got the job done (for years).

Y2K was a ticking time bomb that people were discussing long before the term Y2K entered the popular vernacular.  It is estimated that the US spent in excess of 100 billion and years to fix the problem.

The unknown on Dec 31, 1999 was did we miss something?? Was there some corner of technology we forgot to look at?? Fortunately, most events were minor.  Be thankful that that the problem was tackled on a global scale before the problems could occur.

 

I think the same is true here. It's a rapidly spreading bug that is significantly deadlier than the flu. If its impact is mitigated it's gonna because a lot of people put a lot of time and effort into mitigating it. I think it's too soon to say if it'll have an impact on games. Right now there's probably a small but non-zero chance. Japan has cancelled school across the entire country so it's no joke. A lot of people are banking on warm weather but this is a novel disease so we don't know exactly how it is going to behave. Malaysia is seeing a spread of cases and it's in the 80s there.

 

tl;dr; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

I think the same is true here. It's a rapidly spreading bug that is significantly deadlier than the flu. If its impact is mitigated it's gonna because a lot of people put a lot of time and effort into mitigating it. I think it's too soon to say if it'll have an impact on games. Right now there's probably a small but non-zero chance. Japan has cancelled school across the entire country so it's no joke. A lot of people are banking on warm weather but this is a novel disease so we don't know exactly how it is going to behave. Malaysia is seeing a spread of cases and it's in the 80s there.

 

tl;dr; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The endless "there's always a new hysteria but nothing ever happens" hot takes are easy to make from the comfort of home. The reality is that billions upon billions of dollars of resources are poured into efforts to mitigate these disasters before they happen. The people that ask "why all the effort and worry for something that didn't do much" should be asking themselves if all the effort and worry was the reason nothing much happened. The thing about infectious diseases is that they spread at an exponential rate. If you wait until it becomes a big deal to act, then it becomes a REALLY big deal.  Yeah, the flu kills hundreds of thousands a year, but do we really want to stack that with a similarly scaled COVID breakout? We'd be looking at 2.5-5 million deaths in that case. And remember, the death tallies of the flu are suppressed by the fact that there are yearly efforts to get flu vaccines to the most vulnerable demographics. There is no COVID vaccine and we have no idea for sure if the summer heat will stop it.

Edited by Nacre
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mtblock said:

 

The hysteria is a little much, but it doesn't lack concern. It's about 10-20 times more deadly than the flu, so if it gets that exposure you will see those massive numbers and more. It just has not spread that much. Wash your hands, and be health conscious like you would during any flu season and you will be fine. It's not like the coronavirus is "catchier" than the flu. If you have older family members, it is certainly something to be mindful of...I wouldn't be sending them to China or Korea any time soon. 

 

I do think as the weather warms up, it will die out, so probably won't affect baseball. 

It's hysteria when the 10 Year UST shatters the previous historic low of 1.32 and drops under 1 like it did today before closing at 1.02.

Mass panic tanked Dow 12% in a week, flipped the yield curve inverted, shattered the 10 Yr Treasury historic low and triggered the Fed to make an emergency cut of 50 BP outside of the scheduled FOMC meeting.

That is hysteria. 

You are correct -- take precaution, practice good hygiene, and take extra sanitary measures. Reasonable measures especially for those with underlying respiratory or health issues.

Edited by StevieStats
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3 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

It's hysteria when the 10 Year UST shatters the previous historic low of 1.32 and drops under 1 like it did today before closing at 1.02.

Mass panic tanked Dow 12% in a week, flipped the yield curve inverted, shattered the 10 Yr Treasury historic low and triggered the Fed to make an emergency cut of 50 BP outside of the scheduled FOMC meeting.

That is hysteria. 

You are correct, take precaution, practice good hygiene, and take extra sanitary measures. 

 

The yield curve has been bouncing back and forth over the inversion line for more than 6 months now. We've seen other large sell offs over the past year in response to trade policy yo-yoing. The market has been unstably bullish and most economists agree we are heading for a recession sooner rather than later. A potentially large disruption in global supply from a pandemic isn't the cause of the market tanking, it's just the latest factor on the heap.

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To get back on track a little bit I think the larger sporting impacts will be Formula 1 and maybe the Olympics. If there is domestic disruption MLB is the league that will see the brunt of it. Maybe NASCAR too, and the NHL playoffs especially with the travel to/from Canada.

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Maybe the Rockies will catch it and Bud Black will be forced fo play his young players 

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