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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Some prominent nerds put together this plan, which mathematician Vi Hart summarizes in the following video:

 

The plan includes a four-step roadmap for a return to normal, step one of which involves a massive increase in testing capacity and widespread availability of PPE.  Absent those, easing of restrictions, no matter how well-intentioned and carefully executed, is likely to lead to a large spike in cases, dragging out the process of a return to normal.

 

Nice...

A few thoughts...if we are at 20% unemployment, that means 80% are essential or working from home and still getting groceries now so not sure why it says only 40% essential workers are out there now. Are they saying to shut down things further right now to speed up recovery?

Regarding PPE and tests, all manufacturers need to be approved by the FDA as these are medical devices and need to be produced in environments to avoid contamination. Not as simple as forcing a company to switch over and make these things as it takes weeks to prepare. 

One good thing though is that states and communities have finally realized that they need to do the testing and contact tracing so volunteer programs/classes are already taking place. 

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

 

Nice...

A few thoughts...if we are at 20% unemployment, that means 80% are essential or working from home and still getting groceries now so not sure why it says only 40% essential workers are out there now. Are they saying to shut down things further right now to speed up recovery?

Regarding PPE and tests, all manufacturers need to be approved by the FDA as these are medical devices and need to be produced in environments to avoid contamination. Not as simple as forcing a company to switch over and make these things as it takes weeks to prepare. 

One good thing though is that states and communities have finally realized that they need to do the testing and contact tracing so volunteer programs/classes are already taking place. 

 

1.) Isn't that unemployment number kinda fuged with to begin with? True unemployment is higher, no?

2.) People who can do their jobs from home.

3.) Yes, it sounds like they are saying some states need to tighten the rope. 

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6 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Some prominent nerds put together this plan, which mathematician Vi Hart summarizes in the following video:

 

The plan includes a four-step roadmap for a return to normal, step one of which involves a massive increase in testing capacity and widespread availability of PPE.  Absent those, easing of restrictions, no matter how well-intentioned and carefully executed, is likely to lead to a large spike in cases, dragging out the process of a return to normal.

We're so far behind on testing it's almost impossible to comprehend. The Governor of Maryland just bought 500,000 tests from South Korea because there has been so little movement on the federal level to get this fixed.

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5 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

We're so far behind on testing it's almost impossible to comprehend

By "we" do we mean the planet?

I mean, as a country, this worldometers site that folks are using has us far, far in front of every other country in terms of number of tests total.  We're at 4.1 million the second closest is Russia at 2.1 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's probably lending itself to why we have so many confirmed cases too.  We're able to make that determination.

I agree that having done only 4 million tests in a population of 330 million isn't where we want to be, but we're further along in this in terms of volume than anyone else.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

By "we" do we mean the planet?

I mean, as a country, this worldometers site that folks are using has us far, far in front of every other country in terms of number of tests total.  We're at 4.1 million the second closest is Russia at 2.1 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's probably lending itself to why we have so many confirmed cases too.  We're able to make that determination.

I agree that having done only 4 million tests in a population of 330 million isn't where we want to be, but we're further along in this in terms of volume than anyone else.  

This...and there is more testing being done per capita in NY than Germany, South Korea, or any other country you think is better. Louisiana and mass as well have more per capita tests as well

Look at data and don’t follow headlines. Contract tracing will be hard to do here if people don’t want to give up personal information. If they do it by phone, the majority of people do not pick up unknown numbers. 

Edited by Dr. Whom

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10 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

We're so far behind on testing it's almost impossible to comprehend. The Governor of Maryland just bought 500,000 tests from South Korea because there has been so little movement on the federal level to get this fixed.

False on federal government movement...new jersey has more testing per capita than South Korea for example. Maryland governors wife is from South Korea so she arranged it. South Korea can contract trace because their government is using their cell phone data without asking.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

This...and there is more testing being done per capita in NY than Germany, South Korea, or any other country you think is better. Louisiana and mass as well have more per capita tests as well

Look at data and don’t follow headlines. Contract tracing will be hard to do here if people don’t want to give up personal information. If they do it by phone, the majority of people do not pick up unknown numbers. 


There are approx 43 countries/territories that have higher testing per capita so lets not work the "We test more than any other country" narrative. Its like when certain failed leaders claimed(before the pandemic) that more people are working now than ever before. Well, duh. Population goes up by the millions each year. Its like arguing Total K's vs a higher K/9. Whatever side ur on, you will argue.

Im not trying to attack anyone. Just pointing out facts. Nothing personal

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i don't know how people can draw significant conclusions comparing  the numbers from countries, states, etc. There are so many different variables to account for it is hard for me to make anything out of them. Population, geographic size, population density, amount of testing, government type, time of infection, governments intentionally fudging numbers, degrees of government incompetence, degrees of testing inaccuracies, resources, date sheltered in place.  There are dozens mores. How do you factor for all of this when saying country/state A is doing better job at X than country/state B ? Call me cynical but IMO most of the time, people are gonna see what they want to see.

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19 minutes ago, Ireallymemeit said:


There are approx 43 countries/territories that have higher testing per capita so lets not work the "We test more than any other country" narrative. Its like when certain failed leaders claimed(before the pandemic) that more people are working now than ever before. Well, duh. Population goes up by the millions each year. Its like arguing Total K's vs a higher K/9. Whatever side ur on, you will argue.

Im not trying to attack anyone. Just pointing out facts. Nothing personal

 

I provided the fact that NY was doing more testing per capita then every country in the world that has over a million people. What countries, that have more than a million people, have done more testing per capita than NY? Nothing personal...just want to know 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

i don't know how people can draw significant conclusions comparing  the numbers from countries, states, etc. There are so many different variables to account for it is hard for me to make anything out of them. Population, geographic size, population density, amount of testing, government type, time of infection, governments intentionally fudging numbers, degrees of government incompetence, degrees of testing inaccuracies, resources, date sheltered in place.  There are dozens mores. How do you factor for all of this when saying country/state A is doing better job at X than country/state B ? Call me cynical but IMO most of the time, people are gonna see what they want to see.

This is very much true as well. Good post. Lots of variables.

Edited by Ireallymemeit
typo

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35 minutes ago, Ireallymemeit said:


 Its like arguing Total K's vs a higher K/9.

 

Actually K% is the much better stat because k/9 doesn't account for extra batters in an inning. 

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28 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

i don't know how people can draw significant conclusions comparing  the numbers from countries, states, etc. There are so many different variables to account for it is hard for me to make anything out of them. Population, geographic size, population density, amount of testing, government type, time of infection, governments intentionally fudging numbers, degrees of government incompetence, degrees of testing inaccuracies, resources, date sheltered in place.  There are dozens mores. How do you factor for all of this when saying country/state A is doing better job at X than country/state B ? Call me cynical but IMO most of the time, people are gonna see what they want to see.

Sure...its a fantasy baseball site though.

Of course I want to use stats and show the NY's COVID tests per nine is greater than other countries regardless of division, ballpark, etc...

You can draft Germany or S.Korea...I'm drafting USA #1 overall as they have the best player available (NY)

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

 

I provided the fact that NY was doing more testing per capita then every country in the world that has over a million people. What countries, that have more than a million people, have done more testing per capita than NY? Nothing personal...just want to know 

I dont care to research who or what countries are higher than NY. You were agreeing with a post about us testing more than everyone and added dont trust the headlines so I was simply pointing out that our volume of testing doesnt matter when our populations dwarf most countries except China. And just like China misleads their numbers, you dont think ours are misleading when they only test people with severe symptoms or if they are rich? Its all a manipulation game

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Just now, Ireallymemeit said:

I dont care to research who or what countries are higher than NY. You were agreeing with a post about us testing more than everyone and added dont trust the headlines so I was simply pointing out that our volume of testing doesnt matter when our populations dwarf most countries except China. And just like China misleads their numbers, you dont think ours are misleading when they only test people with severe symptoms or if they are rich? Its all a manipulation game

It's hard to compare the US's population to any country in the world.  China and India, number 1 and 2, have at least a billion more people.  Indonesia, who comes in at #4 after us, has about 80 million less people.

That said, when someone says, "we're way behind on testing" I don't really know where that sense comes from based on the information we have, which is that we've tested about 2 million more people than any other country in the world.  The fact of the matter is that every country on the planet got knocked upside down by this thing.  But I don't think we're "way behind" any nation in terms of testing.  There's no one even close to testing 20% of their population in any country that has a substantive population.  Iceland is the best and they're at about 13%.

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Actually K% is the much better stat because k/9 doesn't account for extra batters in an inning. 

True, but i believe K% drops each time thru the order. Can overrate pitchers whiff ability who struggle and get a quicker hook often. Underrating the whiff ability of effective/efficient pitchers who go deeper.

4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

It's hard to compare the US's population to any country in the world.  China and India, number 1 and 2, have at least a billion more people.  Indonesia, who comes in at #4 after us, has about 80 million less people.

That said, when someone says, "we're way behind on testing" I don't really know where that sense comes from based on the information we have, which is that we've tested about 2 million more people than any other country in the world.  The fact of the matter is that every country on the planet got knocked upside down by this thing.  But I don't think we're "way behind" any nation in terms of testing.  There's no one even close to testing 20% of their population in any country that has a substantive population.  Iceland is the best and they're at about 13%.

It was the timing of the testing. South Korea was way more proactive in testing. America and most other nations were more reactive.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

It was the timing of the testing. South Korea was way more proactive in testing. America and most other nations were more reactive.

But from a comparative standpoint it doesn't really make sense to say that we're "behind them on testing."  They were ahead of us on containment, based on policies that we've demonstrated we can't handle.

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29 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Sure...its a fantasy baseball site though.

Of course I want to use stats and show the NY's COVID tests per nine is greater than other countries regardless of division, ballpark, etc...

You can draft Germany or S.Korea...I'm drafting USA #1 overall as they have the best player available (NY)

I don't disagree. Except that clearly Boston is the #1 player with NYC a distant second. :)

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19 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

True, but i believe K% drops each time thru the order. Can overrate pitchers whiff ability who struggle and get a quicker hook often. Underrating the whiff ability of effective/efficient pitchers who go deeper.

 

 

Yeah, not trying to say pitcher's should be judged just by k%, just that its a better stat indicating the strikeout abilities of a pitcher than k/9. Someone with a really good k/9 but a less impressive k%  is much more likely to get the hook early than vice versa.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

But from a comparative standpoint it doesn't really make sense to say that we're "behind them on testing."  They were ahead of us on containment, based on policies that we've demonstrated we can't handle.

What I meant is that we're way behind on testing as it applies to reopening everyday life or, in the case of this board, starting a baseball season. Even with the number of tests administered it's taking up to 2 weeks to get results. And you can't even get a test unless you're very sick or well-connected. I can't see how anyone is feeling good about this.

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On 4/20/2020 at 7:46 PM, azeri98 said:

You would think. I had my first round just before the virus got bad. Now they tell me it's too dangerous for me to go to the hospital because of my weak immune system from the first round. I'm so pissed off. 

 

I'm very sorry to hear that.  My best to you.

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7 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

What I meant is that we're way behind on testing as it applies to reopening everyday life or, in the case of this board, starting a baseball season. Even with the number of tests administered it's taking up to 2 weeks to get results. And you can't even get a test unless you're very sick or well-connected. I can't see how anyone is feeling good about this.

You may be right.

Nonetheless, we are "reopening everyday life" in some states, in some respects, as soon as Friday and Monday.

It may go catastrophically wrong because we are unprepared for the burdens on the health system.  It may cause exponentially more cases and deaths.  I hope not, but I really don't know.  Regardless, in some places it is happening.

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2 hours ago, Ireallymemeit said:


There are approx 43 countries/territories that have higher testing per capita so lets not work the "We test more than any other country" narrative. Its like when certain failed leaders claimed(before the pandemic) that more people are working now than ever before. Well, duh. Population goes up by the millions each year. Its like arguing Total K's vs a higher K/9. Whatever side ur on, you will argue.

Im not trying to attack anyone. Just pointing out facts. Nothing personal

This is all true. It’s just funny to me that the same people who finally figured this out (not you) were screaming we had more deaths here than Italy (or other countries with 1/6 the population).

So yeah, people twist the numbers in whatever way they see fit. Welcome to Politicizing Everything 101. You’ll be a great student.  

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13 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

By "we" do we mean the planet?

I mean, as a country, this worldometers site that folks are using has us far, far in front of every other country in terms of number of tests total.  We're at 4.1 million the second closest is Russia at 2.1 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's probably lending itself to why we have so many confirmed cases too.  We're able to make that determination.

I agree that having done only 4 million tests in a population of 330 million isn't where we want to be, but we're further along in this in terms of volume than anyone else.  

 

On a per capita basis Russia is beating The US.

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