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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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5 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

On a per capita basis Russia is beating The US.

There are many countries that are "beating us" on a per capita basis.  We're the third most populated country on the planet and have over 100 million more people than Russia.  But they've still administered 2 million less tests.

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More Worldmeter data:

18,100,000 million people have died in 2020 thus far in the world

2,800,000 from starvation ( really world? I think I know where my stimulus is going) 

2,000,000 from cancer

1,250,000 from smoking

422,000 from HIV/AIDS

338,900 from traffic accidents

269,000 from suicide

211,000 from unclean water

122,000 from the flu

181,000 have died from Coronavirus

 

Coronavirus is more deadly than the flu from strictly a numbers standpoint

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

But from a comparative standpoint it doesn't really make sense to say that we're "behind them on testing."  They were ahead of us on containment, based on policies that we've demonstrated we can't handle.

Sure it does because timing is everything in a pandemic. Infection is exponential. So the earlier you start aggressive testing, tracing, enacting policy and information sharing. The less chance it will completely spread.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Just now, Slatykamora said:

Sure it does because timing is everything in a pandemic. Infection is exponential. So the earlier you start aggressive testing, tracing, enacting policy and information sharing. The less chance it will completely spread.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3080764/coronavirus-lockdowns-are-not-reason-hong-kong-and

But while swift government action, relentless tracking and well-organised testing regimes have undoubtedly played a part, increasingly observers are suggesting there is another pillar to the success of both Hong Kong and South Korea: the mindsets of their people.

 

“Even though the rate of infections have gone down largely due to government efforts, you can’t ignore the people’s role in the success,” said Chae Su-mi, a head researcher at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. “Although the government was taken by surprise at the new type of coronavirus that was having an unexpected high death rate, our society managed to be very cooperative during the most crucial point of the pandemic.”

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3080764/coronavirus-lockdowns-are-not-reason-hong-kong-and

But while swift government action, relentless tracking and well-organised testing regimes have undoubtedly played a part, increasingly observers are suggesting there is another pillar to the success of both Hong Kong and South Korea: the mindsets of their people.

 

“Even though the rate of infections have gone down largely due to government efforts, you can’t ignore the people’s role in the success,” said Chae Su-mi, a head researcher at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. “Although the government was taken by surprise at the new type of coronavirus that was having an unexpected high death rate, our society managed to be very cooperative during the most crucial point of the pandemic.”

Yes. That also helps. Multiple factors are in play. These don't have contradict.

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Just now, Slatykamora said:

Yes. That also helps. Multiple factors are in play. These don't have contradict.

I'm not saying they contradict, I'm saying that saying "we're behind South Korea on testing" when we have to have a completely different methodology on containment because our people think differently than they do - and that they've actually done a lot less testing than us because they didn't need to - doesn't line up.  They've tested a smaller percentage of their population than we have.  It works for them because, for better or worse, we have a lot more individual than collectivist spirit and we rebel against being told what to do.

 

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There are many more metrics other than the raw number of tests or even tests per capita that need to be improved on as we go forward if there's going to be any chance of a return to normalcy as laid out in the Harvard roadmap document I linked to above.  One very important one is how accurate the tests are, and we're starting to learn that many of the tests out there are basically junk that, if relied on, would do nothing more than offer a false sense of security that could lead to even more exposure.

One would hope that the more accurate tests would win out over time and become standard nartionwide, but because of the (to be charitable) uneven approach to managing the pandemic at the federal level, and seeing how things have gone with states having to fight the feds and each other in order to get the equipment they need, It's probably more likely that testing efficacy will vary greatly between states, potentially making some bad situations worse, while others who make smarter choices end up on a quicker path to recovery.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

There are many more metrics other than the raw number of tests or even tests per capita that need to be improved on as we go forward if there's going to be any chance of a return to normalcy as laid out in the Harvard roadmap document I linked to above.  One very important one is how accurate the tests are, and we're starting to learn that many of the tests out there are basically junk that, if relied on, would do nothing more than offer a false sense of security that could lead to even more exposure.

One would hope that the more accurate tests would win out over time and become standard nartionwide, but because of the (to be charitable) uneven approach to managing the pandemic at the federal level, and seeing how things have gone with states having to fight the feds and each other in order to get the equipment they need, It's probably more likely that testing efficacy will vary greatly between states, potentially making some bad situations worse, while others who make smarter choices end up on a quicker path to recovery.

Of course.  And no one who loses a loved one is going to feel any better that we produced x amount of tests regardless of their viability.

But these are the tools we have at our disposal now, and some states are opening up, so come what may, those of us that live in those states have to hope that it works as well as it can.

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Yup, and nothing I said suggested otherwise. I was really just trying to nudge the discussion away from unproductive nitpicking about numbers of tests when the tests themselves are insufficient.

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

There are many more metrics other than the raw number of tests or even tests per capita that need to be improved on as we go forward if there's going to be any chance of a return to normalcy as laid out in the Harvard roadmap document I linked to above.  One very important one is how accurate the tests are, and we're starting to learn that many of the tests out there are basically junk that, if relied on, would do nothing more than offer a false sense of security that could lead to even more exposure.

One would hope that the more accurate tests would win out over time and become standard nartionwide, but because of the (to be charitable) uneven approach to managing the pandemic at the federal level, and seeing how things have gone with states having to fight the feds and each other in order to get the equipment they need, It's probably more likely that testing efficacy will vary greatly between states, potentially making some bad situations worse, while others who make smarter choices end up on a quicker path to recovery.

 

Can we really trust Harvard these days after taking federal aid money and with department chairs being on the China payroll like Charles Lieber? 

 

If our tests suck then we need better scientists in this country...5 minute test is like 85% accurate but this could be inaccurate. Science takes a long time to get it right so you have to make do with rushed endeavors.

 

And we learned we cannot have most of our medical supplies being manufactured in China...Everything needs to be made here which is why we are so behind as well. Hard to force China to ramp up production. 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Can we really trust Harvard these days after taking federal aid money and with department chairs being on the China payroll like Charles Lieber? 

 

Can we really trust the Internet when it contains both intelligent fantasy baseball commentary and also flat earth conspiracy theories?

Evaluate the report in its merits, not on the fact that the group came together under the auspices of a particular university.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not saying they contradict, I'm saying that saying "we're behind South Korea on testing" when we have to have a completely different methodology on containment because our people think differently than they do - and that they've actually done a lot less testing than us because they didn't need to - doesn't line up.  They've tested a smaller percentage of their population than we have.  It works for them because, for better or worse, we have a lot more individual than collectivist spirit and we rebel against being told what to do.

 

The better at preventing the spread, the less testing you need to do.

Edited by Slatykamora

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

 

Can we really trust the Internet when it contains both intelligent fantasy baseball commentary and also flat earth conspiracy theories?

Evaluate the report in its merits, not on the fact that the group came together under the auspices of a particular university.

I personally am finding it hard to "trust" anybody when it comes to projection models for this thing.

But I'm listening to everyone, giving more credence to people with experience in public health, and trying to control what I can control as a person.

I don't think tropes about trying to make some sort of tenuous connection to China based on the University that the work at in order to discredit experts because I don't like what they have to say is particularly helpful.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Can we really trust the Internet when it contains both intelligent fantasy baseball commentary and also flat earth conspiracy theories?

Evaluate the report in its merits, not on the fact that the group came together under the auspices of a particular university.

Fair enough....We already have a three phase guideline that the states are going to use ( and add their own stuff too ) provided by the federal government.

Is Massuchusetts going to use the Harvard plan? If Massachusetts doesn't use if from their own state university, why should the federal government?

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Just now, Slatykamora said:

The better at preventing the spread, the less testing you need to do.

Definitely agreed.

But we were going to suck worse than they did at preventing the spread anyway because of who we are.  We have to do more testing.

The only thing I was trying to say is that we are.  I don't really know what that means for the equation in the grand scheme of things honestly.

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5 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Yup, and nothing I said suggested otherwise. I was really just trying to nudge the discussion away from unproductive nitpicking about numbers of tests when the tests themselves are insufficient.

I wonder if the number of faulty tests rising has anything to do with pushing thru the red tape and approving tests that prolly shouldnt be approved that quickly?

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5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Definitely agreed.

But we were going to suck worse than they did at preventing the spread anyway because of who we are.  We have to do more testing.

The only thing I was trying to say is that we are.  I don't really know what that means for the equation in the grand scheme of things honestly.

I agree with this. If we dont fire up testing everywhere for everyone, we're toast until a vaccine is ready

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1 hour ago, Ireallymemeit said:

I wonder if the number of faulty tests rising has anything to do with pushing thru the red tape and approving tests that prolly shouldnt be approved that quickly?

Those having been show flaws too but the original American test kits were flawed as well giving appox. 30% plus false negatives.  Which meant that 3 out of 10 people told they didn't have the virus and didn't have to self-quarantine actually had the virus and were out and about giving it unknowingly to others.

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1 hour ago, Ireallymemeit said:

I wonder if the number of faulty tests rising has anything to do with pushing thru the red tape and approving tests that prolly shouldnt be approved that quickly?

I read that the initial tests were contaminated at the CDC...this is why they had to push through the red tape at the FDA to allow private companies to make the tests.

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I’m certainly no doc, and I know many of you are entrenched in the ol c19 ...aren’t our (US) c19 numbers in decline? It seems that we may be on the other side of the curve..not?

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1 hour ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

I’m certainly no doc, and I know many of you are entrenched in the ol c19 ...aren’t our (US) c19 numbers in decline? It seems that we may be on the other side of the curve..not?

 

In some parts of the country yes, in some parts of the country no. The fear is that when you start opening things back up again, as Georgia for example is starting to do, the curve will start to spike again. Cases will undoubtedly increase as you open more and more things up, but to what extent no one really knows for sure (despite what some on this board will say). Sweden, for example, has not instituted a strict lock down and is doing quite well managing the virus in comparison to much of the rest of the world, with their healthcare system seeing less volume than anticipated. Sweden’s people have largely practiced social distancing on their own accord and have generally acted responsibly given the circumstances. I think the hope is that as we start opening more and more businesses up, the same can happen here and we can get parts of the economy up and running without overwhelming the healthcare system. Widespread testing (which we’ll get to eventually even though it’s taking forever) will make this easier as we’ll be able to hopefully quickly identify and isolate the infected. From an economic standpoint, at a minimum, a major recession is guaranteed. More than likely, a depression is looming - and every day the country is shut down the economic prospects look worse, and the prospects of a depression equal to or worse than the Great Depression increase.

 

There’s also still so much we don’t know too like a) how long has it been in the US b) how many Americans have had it and c) once you do have it, are you immune and if so for how long. 

 

CSB - I went to the Super Bowl this year and sat with a bunch of 49ers fans from San Fran. A week later I got sick with a fever and dry cough. I’d love to have an antibody test to know if I had it or if it was just the flu. I feel like everybody has a story like this.

 

Bottom line of all my rambling, there’s so much uncertainty that nobody knows what things will look like in 3 weeks. Just gotta keep social distancing as much as you can and hope for the best.

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3 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

I’m certainly no doc, and I know many of you are entrenched in the ol c19 ...aren’t our (US) c19 numbers in decline? It seems that we may be on the other side of the curve..not?

Almost 30k new US cases just yesterday, 717k active cases currently. 

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1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

In some parts of the country yes, in some parts of the country no. The fear is that when you start opening things back up again, as Georgia for example is starting to do, the curve will start to spike again. Cases will undoubtedly increase as you open more and more things up, but to what extent no one really knows for sure (despite what some on this board will say). Sweden, for example, has not instituted a strict lock down and is doing quite well managing the virus in comparison to much of the rest of the world, with their healthcare system seeing less volume than anticipated. Sweden’s people have largely practiced social distancing on their own accord and have generally acted responsibly given the circumstances. I think the hope is that as we start opening more and more businesses up, the same can happen here and we can get parts of the economy up and running without overwhelming the healthcare system. Widespread testing (which we’ll get to eventually even though it’s taking forever) will make this easier as we’ll be able to hopefully quickly identify and isolate the infected. From an economic standpoint, at a minimum, a major recession is guaranteed. More than likely, a depression is looming - and every day the country is shut down the economic prospects look worse, and the prospects of a depression equal to or worse than the Great Depression increase.

 

There’s also still so much we don’t know too like a) how long has it been in the US b) how many Americans have had it and c) once you do have it, are you immune and if so for how long. 

 

CSB - I went to the Super Bowl this year and sat with a bunch of 49ers fans from San Fran. A week later I got sick with a fever and dry cough. I’d love to have an antibody test to know if I had it or if it was just the flu. I feel like everybody has a story like this.

 

Bottom line of all my rambling, there’s so much uncertainty that nobody knows what things will look like in 3 weeks. Just gotta keep social distancing as much as you can and hope for the best.

Sweden has tested less per capita than even the US. Less than 100k tests in a country with a population of around 10m. They’ve tested about as well as the state of Georgia... 

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7 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Sweden has tested less per capita than even the US. Less than 100k tests in a country with a population of around 10m. They’ve tested about as well as the state of Georgia... 

It seems like each state will adopt a strategy that suits them. Georgia is going the Sweden route by opening and just social distancing. California appears to be going the S Korea/Germany way ( you need a really good healthcare system to do their method) . Some states will have better healthcare systems than others so that’s why army corps are building hospitals everywhere needed. 

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