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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

It seems like each state will adopt a strategy that suits them. Georgia is going the Sweden route by opening and just social distancing. California appears to be going the S Korea/Germany way ( you need a really good healthcare system to do their method) . Some states will have better healthcare systems than others so that’s why army corps are building hospitals everywhere needed. 

You’d think you’d need a better healthcare system for a state to go the herd immunity route where you need 80% of your population to be immune. Otherwise, wouldn’t they just be deliberately overwhelming their current healthcare system leading to needless deaths?

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18 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You’d think you’d need a better healthcare system for a state to go the herd immunity route where you need 80% of your population to be immune. Otherwise, wouldn’t they just be deliberately overwhelming their current healthcare system leading to needless deaths?

I don't think it's about herd immunity here in GA, it's not really a topic being discussed by the politicians or health advisors.

The expressed understanding is that they have enough ancillary medical facilities and resources so as not to overburden the health care system.  They are still expecting more cases, just enough for them to handle.  There is also pushback from some of the mayors and business owners that it is still too soon, so I think that a number will stay closed.

https://atlanta.eater.com/2020/4/21/21228934/atlanta-restaurant-owners-react-reopening-dining-rooms-covid19

The effectiveness of the second round of PPP will probably determine a lot.  The first round was tapped within a week.  If it's distributed in a way where business owners can feel like they can stay closed, they will.  If not, well that's going to be a tough call for a lot of them.

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Sweden has tested less per capita than even the US. Less than 100k tests in a country with a population of around 10m. They’ve tested about as well as the state of Georgia... 

I just noticed Sweden has a higher death rate per capita than the US...does not appear to be a viable strategy. Georgia needs to pull the plug on that strategy. 

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Posted (edited)

Here is the US federal plan put forth last week ( cliff notes  )

Gating to move to each phase: States/Regions must have 14 days straight of reduced flu symptoms and cases, hospitals must be able to treat all patients without crisis care and have robust testing for healthcare workers including antibody test

States must have testing, contact tracing, and surveillance sites set up at nursing homes, low income, native american, etc..to track asymptomatic. All PPE and critical medical equipment needed to handle dramatic case and ICU surge. Employers to provide safety equipment ( shields , masks, etc.. ). Individuals to practice social distancing and good hygiene

to enter Phase 1

 

Phase 1: Vulnerable continue to shelter in place, social distancing in effect, no groups 10 or more if social distancing cannot be maintained, remote working if possible, minimal business travel, large venues ( sports! ) under physical distancing guidelines, gyms if physical distance and strict sanitation, bars remain closed.

 

if 14 day of cases and symptoms go down under phase 1, you can move to phase 2

 

Is this a good plan? What should be changed? Should/Can the federal government enforce this?

 

Edited by Dr. Whom
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10 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

I just noticed Sweden has a higher death rate per capita than the US...does not appear to be a viable strategy. Georgia needs to pull the plug on that strategy. 

Yes Swedens idea didnt really pan out. 

I do hope the states can "open back up" soon. I believe theres a lot of small businesses out there that can get back to action and still maintain the important practices for stopping the virus. 

But as stated, the general public is going to be gun-shy about getting out into the world and spending money. Which I think is actually a plus, since getting back to normal (new-normal) will probably be more gradual, which is what we want anyway. 

Just dont allow anything that would draw masses of people together where distancing is not possible. Keep encouraging mask-wearing, hand washing, distancing, etc. At some point will we have to trust John Q Public (which can be scary) to do the right thing. 

 

 

(I apologize if this felt disjointed. I have 3 young kids fighting over Mario Party)

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Also, has there been any news supporting or refuting the idea that the changing of the season will help clear out the virus (like the flu) until next fall? 

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Is this a good plan? What should be changed? Should/Can the federal government enforce this?

 

There are good parts and bad parts.  The best part of it is the requirement of 14 days of declining flu-like cases before beginning to roll back social distancing, so, of course, it's the part of the guidelines that GA, TX, SC, and TN are ignoring.  Even POTUS has reversed course, criticizing Brian Kemp for trying to ease restrictions too early after initially praising him.  (Some are attacking him for trying to have it both ways and take credit for however it goes, but I'll be more charitable and welcome any effort to be more careful while cases are still going up.)

The worst part by far is the fact that everything is left up to the states.  Acquiring and determining the sufficient quantities of test kits and PPE, doing the testing, validating that the criteria for a phase have been met before proceeding...  This is a classic fox guarding the henhouse situation, which is extremely problematic considering that there's often a lag between infection and when we see cases spike.  The feds should be the one validating that states have made sufficient progress, but the administration doesn't want to be blamed if things go wrong, so they're leaving it up to the states.

This makes your question about enforcement a moot point.  The feds don't want responsibility, so they aren't going to enforce this.  States who choose to deviate are on their own.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Even POTUS has reversed course, criticizing Brian Kemp for trying to ease restrictions too early after initially praising him.  (Some are attacking him for trying to have it both ways and take credit for however it goes, but I'll be more charitable and welcome any effort to be more careful while cases are still going up.)

I'll be less charitable, as I feel it's warranted.

Trump's trying to have his cake and eat it too here a bit, if we spike he can say he denounced it and if we don't he can say that he initially led the charge and try to get people to forget about this backtrack...then again Kemp could come out today and reel it back himself which I don't think would be a surprise to anyone.

There's some speculation that Kemp is doing this specifically to lower the unemployment rolls in certain businesses.  It's harder for employees to collect UI if the business they worked for is open.  The GA UI trust is looking pretty lean and the state was in the midst of pretty heated budget discussions prior to the outbreak.

Suffice to say if Kemp stays course and there is a spike, he has very little political cover, and he's definitely a political animal.

I ain't going out to eat on Monday.  I don't know many who are.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

There are good parts and bad parts.  The best part of it is the requirement of 14 days of declining flu-like cases before beginning to roll back social distancing, so, of course, it's the part of the guidelines that GA, TX, SC, and TN are ignoring.  Even POTUS has reversed course, criticizing Brian Kemp for trying to ease restrictions too early after initially praising him.  (Some are attacking him for trying to have it both ways and take credit for however it goes, but I'll be more charitable and welcome any effort to be more careful while cases are still going up.)

The worst part by far is the fact that everything is left up to the states.  Acquiring and determining the sufficient quantities of test kits and PPE, doing the testing, validating that the criteria for a phase have been met before proceeding...  This is a classic fox guarding the henhouse situation, which is extremely problematic considering that there's often a lag between infection and when we see cases spike.  The feds should be the one validating that states have made sufficient progress, but the administration doesn't want to be blamed if things go wrong, so they're leaving it up to the states.

This makes your question about enforcement a moot point.  The feds don't want responsibility, so they aren't going to enforce this.  States who choose to deviate are on their own.

Yes...the PPE and tests are lagging because we had insufficient manufacturing here and need to rely on getting medical supplies from China and other countries. Everyone wants it instantly instead of the cheapest possible like before.

 

The state thing is our constitution. Should the federal government declare martial law and remove kemp from office? Does fema need to run the state or work with it? States want emergency federal funding ( they have it ) to spend how they want it. Every state has their own government, health departments, etc...why not let them do what’s best and give them guidelines. 

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13 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I ain't going out to eat on Monday.  I don't know many who are.

 

Opening up the economy won’t save the economy – Trump and Republican governors can’t make people eat at restaurants.

TL;DR:

1. Restaurant bookings were cratering well before officials in many states, including Georgia, instituted stay-at-home orders.

2. The largest drivers of the economy are industries that will take the longest to ramp back up (hotels, airlines, etc.)

3. Unemployed people have less money, so they're not dying to spend a lot.

 

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Opening up the economy won’t save the economy — Trump and Republican governors can’t make people eat at restaurants.

TL;DR:

1. Restaurant bookings were cratering well before officials in many states, including Georgia, instituted stay-at-home orders.

2. The largest drivers of the economy are industries that will take the longest to ramp back up (hotels, airlines, etc.)

3. Unemployed people have less money, so they're not dying to spend a lot.

 

Delta's Q2 earnings report is a horrifying proposition.

Definitely agree with this.  Consumer confidence isn't going to return by political instrument but by individual decision and hiring.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

The state thing is our constitution. Should the federal government declare martial law and remove kemp from office? Does fema need to run the state or work with it? States want emergency federal funding ( they have it ) to spend how they want it. Every state has their own government, health departments, etc...why not let them do what’s best and give them guidelines. 

 

The balance of power between the feds and states has evolved quite a bit since the 18th Century.  The feds have plenty of levers of power over states that would be upheld upon judicial review.  Obviously that doesn't include removing governors from office, which is just a straw man on your part, but it could be as simple as making continued federal financial support contingent on properly following the plan.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The balance of power between the feds and states has evolved quite a bit since the 18th Century.  The feds have plenty of levers of power over states that would be upheld upon judicial review.  Obviously that doesn't include removing governors from office, which is just a straw man on your part, but it could be as simple as making continued federal financial support contingent on properly following the plan.

The president threatened strong action ( does that include withholding financial support? ) to states that were not following the guidelines. 

 

 

 

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The President says a lot of things.  He praised Kemp yesterday and he's threatening him today.  I wouldn't make much of it.

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Gov. Cuomo to the protestors: “You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker. Do it tomorrow,”

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Posted (edited)

[...]

Anyway, someone asked about the "seasonality" of the virus. I read an article talking about the prospects about a second wave in the fall, and how keeping an eye on the southern hemisphere might be helpful in predicting what might happen here in the US. Australia is basically entering the fall now for example, so should be interesting what happens there. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Gripes about moderation removed. Report any post(s) that you feel violate the guidelines and we'll deal with them.

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[ Posts removed.  Let's move away from politics and focus on the policy outcomes.  "Trump/Cuomo/whoever did X" is generally okay, "here's what I think of Trump/Cuomo/whoever" is generally not going to work. ]

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Latest Worldometer news:

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

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Anyone hear about this study saying that lockdowns have done nothing to flatten the curve or slowdown the spread?  Someone was just telling me they saw it being talked about on FOX news but can't find a good source for it.  I think they said social distancing was what has done the most for us, which obviously social distancing is going to slow the spread more than anything.  Lockdowns just more or less force that.  Wondering if anyone knows about this because I don't know how they can have sufficient data for this claim.  The one thing I found was saying that numbers were already on the decline when lockdowns went into effect and the decline has remained steady rather than a big dropoff.  But in NJ those numbers were increasing and with insufficient testing you can't really make that determination.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yes Swedens idea didnt really pan out. 

I do hope the states can "open back up" soon. I believe theres a lot of small businesses out there that can get back to action and still maintain the important practices for stopping the virus. 

But as stated, the general public is going to be gun-shy about getting out into the world and spending money. Which I think is actually a plus, since getting back to normal (new-normal) will probably be more gradual, which is what we want anyway. 

Just dont allow anything that would draw masses of people together where distancing is not possible. Keep encouraging mask-wearing, hand washing, distancing, etc. At some point will we have to trust John Q Public (which can be scary) to do the right thing. 

 

 

(I apologize if this felt disjointed. I have 3 young kids fighting over Mario Party)


It’s too early to say Sweden’s plan didn’t “pan out.” The idea of pursuing herd immunity inevitably entails a higher death rate initially with the hopes of getting as close to the end of the tunnel (however one may define that) sooner.

 

Think of it as kind of “paying now” upfront instead of “playing later.” The risk of course is completely overwhelming the healthcare system with an onslaught of hospitalizations 

Edited by UberRebel

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51 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Anyone hear about this study saying that lockdowns have done nothing to flatten the curve or slowdown the spread?  Someone was just telling me they saw it being talked about on FOX news but can't find a good source for it.  I think they said social distancing was what has done the most for us, which obviously social distancing is going to slow the spread more than anything.  Lockdowns just more or less force that.  Wondering if anyone knows about this because I don't know how they can have sufficient data for this claim.  The one thing I found was saying that numbers were already on the decline when lockdowns went into effect and the decline has remained steady rather than a big dropoff.  But in NJ those numbers were increasing and with insufficient testing you can't really make that determination.

It does seem like we have been stuck on 27,000-29,000 new cases per day for a while now...I think it is flattening the curve although the curve is not going down at least here. I think recovered patients has to be greater than new cases each day to see some real progress on the graphs

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