bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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12 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Either way, your statement was false and I was just clarifying, with a link to the facts for others to see. If you’re wrong and someone corrects you, it is not a personal attack. I just want the facts out there.

Nothing wrong with putting out the facts, but the CDC saying states MAY put it out doesn't mean it's actually occurring and your citation shows that specifically that there is no set base for states.  Alabama is counting people dying from pneumonia as non-covid deaths currently.  Weird as that's what usually kills you with covid.  

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4 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

This post will not get a standing ovation, nobody wants this, but I think you might be right. 

I get wanting baseball back.  I'd love to have it back too, but not at the cost of lives. People keep bringing up that we can have baseball as long as those considered most at risk stay quarantined.  We planning on playing games without managers?  Most are in the at risk age range.

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Posted (edited)

Can anyone find an update chart for this? I'm curious to see if pneumonia deaths are still down.

 

3ehhg.png

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/us/coronavirus-reopenings/index.html

In Douglasville, Georgia, Eric Greeson said his family's barbershop had more business than they thought they would but not as much as they wished. By about 1:40 p.m. on Friday, he said the shop had nine clients, which was not that far off from a normal Friday.
He said he was "kind of shocked" by the governor's decision to reopen, but he decided to do so in part so he didn't fall behind his competition.
"You know, we figure if we don't open, the shop down the street will, and then we lose that business. So you're kind of stuck in a position where if they say you can open, you open," he said.
But Samuel Glickman, founder of the Georgia Barbers Network, said he won't reopen until he can get the necessary supplies to do so safely.
"The comfort level is not there for sure," he told CNN. "Right now, we're not safe. The items we need to open up our businesses and keep our clients safe, those items aren't accessible to us."
 
 
Realistically, I think a lot of business owners are going to be put in a similar dilemma when their governors decide to reopen their industries.
 
If their cash position isn't strong enough to withstand being closed, or they see a potential threat from local competition, they may reopen even if they have individual health concerns.
 
And I understand.  You hear all sorts of stories about business owners applying for PPP and their banks messing it up, or it still not being enough to make rent or keep the lights on.
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It's interesting that if someone tests positive for COVID-19, even someone without symptoms, they are to be labeled a COVID-19 death.

 

 

 

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

It's interesting that if someone tests positive for COVID-19, even someone without symptoms, they are to be labeled a COVID-19 death.

 

That's how randos on Twitter are interpreting the original tweet.  The follow-ups make it clear that the coroner makes the determination, with a COVID test only used to confirm if there's a suspicion of death from COVID symptoms.  That determination is only as good as the coroner is skilled at their job, but that's true regardless.

 

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Posted (edited)
Just now, tonycpsu said:

 

That's how randos on Twitter are interpreting the original tweet.  The follow-ups make it clear that the coroner makes the determination, with a COVID test only used to confirm if there's a suspicion of death from COVID symptoms.  That determination is only as good as the coroner is skilled at their job, but that's true regardless.

 

Like you say, we're kind of in the "fog of war" here so to speak when it comes to battling the disease, we have to operate best we can on the data we have while still under the understanding it may be flawed.  "Plans are useless but planning is essential."

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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20 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

It's interesting that if someone tests positive for COVID-19, even someone without symptoms, they are to be labeled a COVID-19 death.

 

 

 

Ya that’s more if you have covid and die from a secondary infection. Like how I have a presumptive covid case but also have a secondary bacterial infection from my immune system being lowered. Luckily I finally got the antibiotics and corticosteroid inhaler for that and am bouncing back. Others aren’t as lucky and since covid could have still directly lead to the death itd be counted. Someone else cited something and it showed Alabama wasn’t counting cases of someone with a positive covid test who died from pneumonia though so who knows right now. 

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Quote

 

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
 

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
 

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

Why are you calling those facts when your citation literally has opinion in the url? Only ‘fact’ is that says it’s from an opinion contributor. Saying we need herd immunity is basically saying instead of the 1m infected we currently have that you want 280m instead... that’s the number we would need, and that immunity lasts about a year to two years with the other known human coronaviruses. 
FYI the guy who wrote the opinion article isn’t even a specialist in viruses. He’s essentially a radiologist. 
 

Do me a favor real quick and look up St. Louis vs Philadelphia Spanish flu and see the difference between social distancing and being fully open. The death toll was MUCH different between the two. St. Louis performed essentially a quarantine, opened up then closed again because of a spike, Philadelphia threw a parade for the end of the war. 

Edited by daynlokki

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For anyone that wants to go further with that guy, you can find a YouTube video posted the end of March where he says the death numbers will end up being around the same as the seasonal flu... we are already over that I’m pretty sure. 

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Why are you calling those facts when your citation literally has opinion in the url?

 

It's not entirely clear from the way the post is formatted, but those are quotes from the author of the opinion piece.  In that author's opinion, they're facts.

Given the author's affiliation with the conservative Hoover institution and the fact that his specialty isn't adjacent to epidemiology, the items he's presenting as facts may not be ones that other medical professionals with less financial incentive to come to a particular conclusion or more relevant experience may would necessarily agree with.  But there have been plenty of other items cited here that are opinion or informed speculation, so there's nothing wrong with the post other than the unclear formatting, which I've fixed.

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15 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Why are you calling those facts when your citation literally has opinion in the url? Only ‘fact’ is that says it’s from an opinion contributor. Saying we need herd immunity is basically saying instead of the 1m infected we currently have that you want 280m instead... that’s the number we would need, and that immunity lasts about a year to two years with the other known human coronaviruses. 
FYI the guy who wrote the opinion article isn’t even a specialist in viruses. He’s essentially a radiologist. 
 

Do me a favor real quick and look up St. Louis vs Philadelphia Spanish flu and see the difference between social distancing and being fully open. The death toll was MUCH different between the two. St. Louis performed essentially a quarantine, opened up then closed again because of a spike, Philadelphia threw a parade for the end of the war. 

Clear you didn’t click on the link lol. They are facts listed from the doctor who wrote them. I’m not calling them anything. So do me a favor real quick and click on the link and see what the doctor has to say.

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9 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Clear you didn’t click on the link lol. They are facts listed from the doctor who wrote them. I’m not calling them anything. So do me a favor real quick and click on the link and see what the doctor has to say.

I did. He’s a radiologist who said last month our overall death numbers would be the same as the flu. We are over that. He also praised how Sweden has handled the pandemic and said that overall case numbers don’t matter. 

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11 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Nice...So far Georgia numbers have flatlined ( still under 300 new cases per day ) although still way too early to tell. 

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Dr. Whom said:

Nice...So far Georgia numbers have flatlined ( still under 300 new cases per day ) although still way too early to tell. 

Yeah, three days is not enough for us to know anything really, but I'm glad over here that the hospitals didn't get slammed over the weekend at least.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Nice...So far Georgia numbers have flatlined ( still under 300 new cases per day ) although still way too early to tell. 

Georgia has 432 today and 55 deaths so far. 

Edited by daynlokki
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Posted (edited)
Just now, daynlokki said:

Georgia has 432 today. 

Yeah we've also been way behind on testing, so the day to day numbers are hard to take too much stock into, not to mention three days is not enough time to make a determination on whether it's too soon or not.

We'll know more here over the next couple weeks.

AJC has 26 deaths today, not 55.  https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-georgia-records-942-coronavirus-deaths-cases-rise-773/VHzquLmX2FQKreoSG6eZDO/

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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There's a lot of noise in the daily updates. Best to use a site that has an option to show new cases on a one week moving average, e.g.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

which shows an average of 740 new confirmed cases per day over the past week:

image.thumb.png.10c6924f952d96f6902a46eea5610962.png

No idea where the 300 new cases / day figure came from.

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

There's a lot of noise in the daily updates. Best to use a site that has an option to show new cases on a one week moving average, e.g.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

which shows an average of 740 new confirmed cases per day over the past week:

image.thumb.png.10c6924f952d96f6902a46eea5610962.png

No idea where the 300 new cases / day figure came from.

I think he took the 265 and 292 reported over the weekend.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Which as we know typically lags.  We usually spike in reported cases on Monday to make up for it.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think he took the 265 and 292 reported over the weekend.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Which as we know typically lags.  We usually spike in reported cases on Monday to make up for it.

Yep...initial numbers today were lower than updated in the last hour or so...432 is even better against the last 7 day average of 793 average. Keep it going Georgia!

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I see a lot of people on here conflate government policies and guidelines with human behavior.

 

Just because there is the option to "open back up" doesn't mean everyone will and it certainly doesn't mean the "curve" will go right back to the same trajectory before they shut down.

 

Obviously people have been taking far more precautions than they ever have in their life.

 

Legit simply washing your hands well and frequently will drastically reduce your chances of catching covid.  Trying your best to maintain 6 feet from people will also drastically reduce your chances of infection.  The vast majority of the public wearing masks will also help prevent the spread even if every single state was to reopen.

 

Now don't take this as me being behind Georgia's decision because I truly think it's still a bit early for anyone to be reopening like that.  As I tend to lean towards Bill Gates' theory of "let's do this once and do it right and not undo a lot of the progress we made".

 

But just because places are reopening things doesn't mean the trajectory won't still be flattened.  Yes obviously its not going to be as flattened as it would with a shutdown on top of these things.

 

Just a few points I think people have been over looking.

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6 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

I see a lot of people on here conflate government policies and guidelines with human behavior.

 

Just because there is the option to "open back up" doesn't mean everyone will and it certainly doesn't mean the "curve" will go right back to the same trajectory before they shut down.

 

Obviously people have been taking far more precautions than they ever have in their life.

 

Legit simply washing your hands well and frequently will drastically reduce your chances of catching covid.  Trying your best to maintain 6 feet from people will also drastically reduce your chances of infection.  The vast majority of the public wearing masks will also help prevent the spread even if every single state was to reopen.

 

Now don't take this as me being behind Georgia's decision because I truly think it's still a bit early for anyone to be reopening like that.  As I tend to lean towards Bill Gates' theory of "let's do this once and do it right and not undo a lot of the progress we made".

 

But just because places are reopening things doesn't mean the trajectory won't still be flattened.  Yes obviously its not going to be as flattened as it would with a shutdown on top of these things.

 

Just a few points I think people have been over looking.

 

To add a few other factors in this.  The medical industry is learning how to better treat covid every day.  The drug treatments also continue to advance and every day we inch closer to a vaccine that I feel is fair to expect to be produced in record time.

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9 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

I see a lot of people on here conflate government policies and guidelines with human behavior.

 

Just because there is the option to "open back up" doesn't mean everyone will and it certainly doesn't mean the "curve" will go right back to the same trajectory before they shut down.

 

Obviously people have been taking far more precautions than they ever have in their life.

 

Legit simply washing your hands well and frequently will drastically reduce your chances of catching covid.  Trying your best to maintain 6 feet from people will also drastically reduce your chances of infection.  The vast majority of the public wearing masks will also help prevent the spread even if every single state was to reopen.

 

Now don't take this as me being behind Georgia's decision because I truly think it's still a bit early for anyone to be reopening like that.  As I tend to lean towards Bill Gates' theory of "let's do this once and do it right and not undo a lot of the progress we made".

 

But just because places are reopening things doesn't mean the trajectory won't still be flattened.  Yes obviously its not going to be as flattened as it would with a shutdown on top of these things.

 

Just a few points I think people have been over looking.

Agreed...

Most people will agree with you on Gates although he is not a scientist or medical expert. 

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