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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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I go to both the Mayo Clinic (today) and the Mayo Hospital (tomorrow) and it worries me just being around people, even if they stay 6 ft away. For the hospital my Dr is on the 19th floor. Being in a wheelchair I will need to share an elevator with at least one other person who I don't know how careful they have been.

 

I can't imagine being in a crowd ever again. No more Twins games or concerts for me. I am 66, diabetic going through renal failure. Pretty much strike three but life had been good. 

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

I go to both the Mayo Clinic (today) and the Mayo Hospital (tomorrow) and it worries me just being around people, even if they stay 6 ft away. For the hospital my Dr is on the 19th floor. Being in a wheelchair I will need to share an elevator with at least one other person who I don't know how careful they have been.

 

I can't imagine being in a crowd ever again. No more Twins games or concerts for me. I am 66, diabetic going through renal failure. Pretty much strike three but life had been good. 

Good luck tomorrow.

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Ya that’s more if you have covid and die from a secondary infection. Like how I have a presumptive covid case but also have a secondary bacterial infection from my immune system being lowered. Luckily I finally got the antibiotics and corticosteroid inhaler for that and am bouncing back. Others aren’t as lucky and since covid could have still directly lead to the death itd be counted. Someone else cited something and it showed Alabama wasn’t counting cases of someone with a positive covid test who died from pneumonia though so who knows right now. 

 

CDC has advised that persons who test positive for COVID-19 and die are to be counted as a COVID-19 death. Persons whose death certificates report COVID-19 as a cause of death are to be counted as a COVID-19 death.”

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yep...initial numbers today were lower than updated in the last hour or so...432 is even better against the last 7 day average of 793 average. Keep it going Georgia!

That is because those numbers reflect the period during quarantine in Georgia.  The non-quarantined Georgia numbers won't start showing for another week earliest.  Opening early is not only dangerous but a ticking time bomb with a delay fuse on it that suckers people to come out and think things are over because this disease doesn't "bloom" in a person in just 24 or 48 hours.

Low and Away, hang in there.  We all send you our best wishes.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

That's how randos on Twitter are interpreting the original tweet.  The follow-ups make it clear that the coroner makes the determination, with a COVID test only used to confirm if there's a suspicion of death from COVID symptoms.  That determination is only as good as the coroner is skilled at their job, but that's true regardless.

 

 

The getting hit by a bus comment was obviously over the top. But we know these two things to be factual:

 

1. The CDC advises hospitals to consider any patient that tests positive for COVID and dies a COVID death.

2. Medicare provides more reimbursement for COVID deaths.

 

Based on that there is a moral (CDC recommendations) and financial (reimbursement) incentive to consider COVID the cause of death even if it is a secondary issue. 

 

I think it takes a bigger leap of faith to think that isn’t happening at all than to think it. I’m not talking about making up causes of death.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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Good news on the testing front -

https://www.ajc.com/news/new-trump-announces-new-blueprint-increase-testing-diagnose-virus/jIqhtgRWBqhjn9gBwpMrvO/

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said testing would be available at 100 stores by the end of May.

 

Rite Aid CEO Heyward Donigan said its stores are doing 1,500 tests per day and will seek to expand that capability.

Stephen Rusckowski, the CEO for Quest Diagnostics, said his company is testing 50,000 people per day and will perform 100,000 tests per day by the end of May. He added that the turnaround time for hospitalized patients is less than 24 hours.

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21 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

That is because those numbers reflect the period during quarantine in Georgia.  The non-quarantined Georgia numbers won't start showing for another week earliest.  Opening early is not only dangerous but a ticking time bomb with a delay fuse on it that suckers people to come out and think things are over because this disease doesn't "bloom" in a person in just 24 or 48 hours.

Low and Away, hang in there.  We all send you our best wishes.

More than likely, I expect our confirmed positives (along with the rest of the nation) to spike upwards with all this testing they're announcing today to roll out in May.

I'm not sure if that will be actually reflective of a significantly increased amount of transmissions, or just more asymptomatic people who were carrying it to be tested. 

That said, of course, without question we'll see more cases with more people out and about.  To what degree?  I can't tell you.  Hopefully not too bad.

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2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

I go to both the Mayo Clinic (today) and the Mayo Hospital (tomorrow) and it worries me just being around people, even if they stay 6 ft away. For the hospital my Dr is on the 19th floor. Being in a wheelchair I will need to share an elevator with at least one other person who I don't know how careful they have been.

 

I can't imagine being in a crowd ever again. No more Twins games or concerts for me. I am 66, diabetic going through renal failure. Pretty much strike three but life had been good. 

Prayers to you. I’m assuming people will be waiting and not getting into elevators together. One on, one off. Hopefully. 

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

I think it takes a bigger leap of faith to think that isn’t happening at all than to think it. I’m not talking about making up causes of death.

 

I can see them erring on the side of saying COVID in what they believe to be a 50/50 toss-up between COVID and something else, sure.  And everyone working in hospitals is insanely busy, so maybe they're not as careful as they might be otherwise.  But I don't think an individual doctor or medical examiner is going to risk their livelihood and possible jail time to get a little extra money for their employer by knowingly falsifying records. 

With all of the other uncertainties around the numbers, I'd think people trying to juke the stats is far down the list of things we should worry about right now.

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15 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I can see them erring on the side of saying COVID in what they believe to be a 50/50 toss-up between COVID and something else, sure.  And everyone working in hospitals is insanely busy, so maybe they're not as careful as they might be otherwise.  But I don't think an individual doctor or medical examiner is going to risk their livelihood and possible jail time to get a little extra money for their employer by knowingly falsifying records. 

With all of the other uncertainties around the numbers, I'd think people trying to juke the stats is far down the list of things we should worry about right now.

 

It's not falsifying records. It's literally doing what the CDC is advising them to do.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yep...initial numbers today were lower than updated in the last hour or so...432 is even better against the last 7 day average of 793 average. Keep it going Georgia!

Well it’s 744 and 78 deaths now. 

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1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

CDC has advised that persons who test positive for COVID-19 and die are to be counted as a COVID-19 death. Persons whose death certificates report COVID-19 as a cause of death are to be counted as a COVID-19 death.”

Advising and it happening are two separate things. As seen by Alabama, who in the full citation of the story it says specifically isn’t counting several pneumonia deaths as covid, despite a positive test. 

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12 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

It's not falsifying records. It's literally doing what the CDC is advising them to do.

 

The actual CDC guidelines are a lot more nuanced and specific than what that Twitter account is saying.

Quote

When reporting cause of death on a death certificate, use any information available, such as medical history, medical records, laboratory tests, an autopsy report, or other sources of relevant information. Similar to many other diagnoses, a cause-of-death statement is an informed medical opinion that should be based on sound medical judgment drawn from clinical training and experience, as well as knowledge of current disease states and local trends  [...]

If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the UCOD, as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In these cases, COVID–19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it. Generally, it is best to avoid abbreviations and acronyms, but COVID–19 is unambiguous, so it is acceptable to report on the death certificate. In some cases, survival from COVID–19 can be complicated by pre-existing chronic conditions, especially those that result in diminished lung capacity, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. These medical conditions do not cause COVID–19, but can increase the risk of contracting a respiratory infection and death, so these conditions should be reported in Part II and not in Part I.

 

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10 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Well it’s 744 and 78 deaths now. 

That's actually a pretty significant improvement over the last two Monday spikes after weekend lags, when we had 1,600 and 1,400 new reported cases, respectively.

But again, it's only been 3 days.  We don't know what happens over the next 14 days, and as testing ramps up.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

That's actually a pretty significant improvement over the last two Monday spikes after weekend lags, when we had 1,600 and 1,400 new reported cases, respectively.

But again, it's only been 3 days.  We don't know what happens over the next 14 days, and as testing ramps up.

Day isn’t done yet...

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Just now, daynlokki said:

Day isn’t done yet...

We report twice a day, you just got the evening report.

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7 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

We report twice a day, you just got the evening report.

The site has updated about five times for Georgia today so either their numbers are wrong or the state is reporting more. 

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4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

The site has updated about five times for Georgia today so either their numbers are wrong or the state is reporting more. 

I don't know what site you're referring to, or how that data is sent by reputable sources to that site, but the Georgia Department of Public Health provides updates to the media on Covid cases twice per day.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

So I'm guessing "the site" is wrong, or is updating using timing that is not analogous to the GDOPH, which I would consider to be more reputable.

Either way, as been said many times, it is kind of pointless to analyze today's findings if you're really invested in the topic, as I am, living in Georgia, because it's too soon.

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7 minutes ago, daynlokki said:


The hospitals in the area say they can handle the surge as long as good hygiene and social distancing take place. Medical workers have the only opinion that matters regarding covid19 as they are the ones on the front lines. 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Whom said:

 


The hospitals in the area say they can handle the surge as long as good hygiene and social distancing take place. Medical workers have the only opinion that matters regarding covid19 as they are the ones on the front lines. 

It's a data point.  There are many conflicting models because of the sheer quantity of unknown variables involved.

Early response by some business owners have been mixed in my little corner of the world.  Some are holding firm to not opening.  Some unfortunately have been permanently shuttered.

I doubt we reach a level of "openness" that the GT model is using to drive it's data on transmission any time soon.

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

It's a data point.  There are many conflicting models because of the sheer quantity of unknown variables involved.

Early response by some business owners have been mixed in my little corner of the world.  Some are holding firm to not opening.  Some unfortunately have been permanently shuttered.

I doubt we reach a level of "openness" that the GT model is using to drive it's data on transmission any time soon.

Does the model also keep social distancing and good hygiene? Businesses will be cleaning everything as well for their own safety and their customers. The businesses that want/need to open will and others will not. As long as the health care workers are not opposed to it 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

 


The hospitals in the area say they can handle the surge as long as good hygiene and social distancing take place. Medical workers have the only opinion that matters regarding covid19 as they are the ones on the front lines. 

NY hospitals said they could handle the spike too at the beginning. Just because someone says they can do something doesn’t mean they actually can. My mother is an RN in Washington. They were saying the same thing too. With people getting sick during this they are down to half their staff in the ICU currently. Even though the county they are in has been lightly hit, and the states stay at home order is in place, they are still being overwhelmed while people in the town set up a May 1st full town car cruise and party. People are stupid. Always expect the worst and all you can be is pleasantly surprised. 

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

Does the model also keep social distancing and good hygiene? Businesses will be cleaning everything as well for their own safety and their customers. The businesses that want/need to open will and others will not. As long as the health care workers are not opposed to it 

No idea.

Hypothetically, you could have a restaurant that turns over 60 tables in a day have one asymptomatic waiter come in and transmit by proxy to a thousand people second hand and so on.

But there have been some models which are showing a lot less than the GT model.  Fact is we really don't know.  Just going to have to wait to see what the next couple weeks bring us.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

No idea.

Hypothetically, you could have a restaurant that turns over 60 tables in a day have one asymptomatic waiter come in and transmit by proxy to a thousand people second hand and so on.

But there have been some models which are showing a lot less than the GT model.  Fact is we really don't know.  Just going to have to wait to see what the next couple weeks bring us.

Or you could have a virus that has mutated to a less severe form by all the transmissions and replication. Nobody knows how this going to play out

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