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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

Or you could have a virus that has mutated to a less severe form by all the transmissions and replication. Nobody knows how this going to play out

Exactly.

I can understand that all these specific models are based on predictions using available data while also simultaneously holding in my head the idea that no model is going to be able to exactly replicate an almost infinite number or uncontrolled unknown variables.

Basically like Steamer projections.  It's a data point, originated by people who have done way more research on the topic than me and are experts in a way that I am not.  But also not infallable.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Or you could have a virus that has mutated to a less severe form by all the transmissions and replication. Nobody knows how this going to play out

We are talking about a virus that evovled to survive a bats super immune system. I'm far more afraid a mutation that makes it worse for people. Current wisdom suggests it has little pressures to mutate much in either direction because of how infectious it is though.

Long term? Not Sure.

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10 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

We are talking about a virus that evovled to survive a bats super immune system. I'm far more afraid a mutation that makes it worse for people. Current wisdom suggests it has little pressures to mutate much in either direction because of how infectious it is though.

Long term? Not Sure.

Are you a virologist? I know the other COVID thread is loaded with epidemiology experts :)

They actually believed it jumped from Bat to Pangolin to Human...

 

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Georgia did not meet the gating criteria set by the White House to open...their health department determined they can handle the surge if needed. 

What can you do? Can you achieve herd immunity without a vaccine while protecting the vulnerable? You cannot get herd immunity if everyone stays home so it seems we either need vaccine or open up slowly.

You can open slowly and protect the vulnerable...Florida, with the greatest elderly population,  could keep things open because they focused on the vulnerable in nursing homes and retirement communities for their testing.

 

 

 

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

Georgia did not meet the gating criteria set by the White House to open...their health department determined they can handle the surge if needed. 

What can you do? Can you achieve herd immunity without a vaccine while protecting the vulnerable? You cannot get herd immunity if everyone stays home so it seems we either need vaccine or open up slowly.

You can open slowly and protect the vulnerable...Florida, with the greatest elderly population,  could keep things open because they focused on the vulnerable in nursing homes and retirement communities for their testing.

I think my biggest concern right now is that the Georgia Department of Public Health and Kemp are wrong about being able to prevent overflow with the ancillary health facilities and resources.

I've read from several virologists that herd immunity is a nonstarter without a vaccine.

I don't really think it's about that.  They don't really talk about "herd immunity" here. 

I think it's more of an economic consideration.  Too much strain on the state UI trust, PPP rounds not being sufficient to keep businesses open, low UI wages for workers, etc.

 

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The next thing that is going to happen is the food chain is breaking. Grocery stores are going to see a shortage of meat products. To many processing plants closing due to lack of following guidelines. The animals are ready to be slaugtered but plants have been closed.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

Are you a virologist? I know the other COVID thread is loaded with epidemiology experts :)

They actually believed it jumped from Bat to Pangolin to Human...

 

Nothing I said requires special knowledge. Maybe a bit in bat biology?

 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1193421

Not great news on the second round of PPP front.

Did you hear the Lakers took out 4.6 million from the PPP? They returned due to public backlash although this is why the PPP keeps getting drained. Greed

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

Did you hear the Lakers took out 4.6 million from the PPP? They returned due to public backlash although this is why the PPP keeps getting drained. Greed

I did.

It certainly helps having a team of paper pushers on payroll to be able to fill out the paperwork as opposed to being a small business owner and doing it yourself.

Also it sounds like some of the banks put some of their more lucrative clients to the top of the queue.

The program has largely been a disaster for a lot of folks I've talked with.  Not exactly providing them with the confidence that they can keep the doors closed.  Anecdotal, I know.

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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I did.

It certainly helps having a team of paper pushers on payroll to be able to fill out the paperwork as opposed to being a small business owner and doing it yourself.

Also it sounds like some of the banks put some of their more lucrative clients to the top of the queue.

The program has largely been a disaster for a lot of folks I've talked with.  Not exactly providing them with the confidence that they can keep the doors closed.  Anecdotal, I know.

Yeah so much for solidarity for your fellow countryman...everything has to be regulated to the teeth because nobody can do the right thing when no one is looking. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Are you a virologist? I know the other COVID thread is loaded with epidemiology experts :)

They actually believed it jumped from Bat to Pangolin to Human...

 

Virologists are thinking that's exactly what happened.  They sequenced the genome and found it to be 96% the same as a coronavirus they have found in Chinese bats.  

 

3 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Georgia did not meet the gating criteria set by the White House to open...their health department determined they can handle the surge if needed. 

What can you do? Can you achieve herd immunity without a vaccine while protecting the vulnerable? You cannot get herd immunity if everyone stays home so it seems we either need vaccine or open up slowly.

You can open slowly and protect the vulnerable...Florida, with the greatest elderly population,  could keep things open because they focused on the vulnerable in nursing homes and retirement communities for their testing.

 

 

 

Herd immunity only works if antibodies actually give you immunity.  Now, they BELIEVE it'll be like the other coronaviruses, 4 of which you get immunity from for a year or two before you can be reinfected.  However, MERS and SARS they still don't have concrete data on reinfection.  Also, to achieve herd immunity 80% of the country would need antibodies at the same time providing immunity.  So with just over 1m in cases right now, the US would need about 264m infected to even have a chance to achieve that herd immunity in the next 8 or so months.  Our hospitals have struggled with the cases they have received.  Which is why flattening the curve is so important.  If we get that many infected our death numbers for not only Covid will spike, but other things that the ERs and ICUs will be turning away because they are overburdened.  That's the last thing we need as a country.

 

2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

The next thing that is going to happen is the food chain is breaking. Grocery stores are going to see a shortage of meat products. To many processing plants closing due to lack of following guidelines. The animals are ready to be slaugtered but plants have been closed.

Yup.  Foster Farms (chicken) in Longview, WA has about 50% of the counties covid cases.  Somehow, they still haven't shut down the plant though.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed political derail

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https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-coronavirus-outbreak-georgia-surpasses-deaths-24k-cases/hdPKRLAIwzdSM9xaQnTrtI/

Headline is really terrible news.  Over 100 deaths in the past 48 hours.

There are some positive trends here as well, percentage of positive tests are down week over week to 17.5% positive vs 22.5% last Tuesday on a sample size of over 100k, and we're at the lowest ventilator usage at 992 in use with 1,854 available.  Still too early to observe any kinds of trends as a result of things opening up.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/breaking-coronavirus-outbreak-georgia-surpasses-deaths-24k-cases/hdPKRLAIwzdSM9xaQnTrtI/

Headline is really terrible news.  Over 100 deaths in the past 48 hours.

There are some positive trends here as well, percentage of positive tests are down week over week to 17.5% positive vs 22.5% last Tuesday on a sample size of over 100k, and we're at the lowest ventilator usage at 992 in use with 1,854 available.  Still too early to observe any kinds of trends as a result of things opening up.

That’s really not a ton available and it’s concerning they are using 1/3 of all available ventilators in the state already. Read somewhere Georgia is thinking about canceling all school from home too as it’s too difficult to manage right now https://apple.news/Aceb4Oh9uSI-d3Kh3YqTzHw

Edited by daynlokki

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

That’s really not a ton available and it’s concerning they are using 1/3 of all available ventilators in the state already. Read somewhere Georgia is thinking about canceling all school from home too as it’s too difficult to manage right now https://apple.news/Aceb4Oh9uSI-d3Kh3YqTzHw

Well, we made it this far with current usage and it's the lowest it has been since we peaked on the 7th.

Yeah, my little guy is too young for school but I know parents are going bonkers.  Considering public schools here let out around May 22nd though I can't really say how much of the year they're losing, can probably make up finals and such when they have their stuff together.

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28 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Well, we made it this far with current usage and it's the lowest it has been since we peaked on the 7th.

Yeah, my little guy is too young for school but I know parents are going bonkers.  Considering public schools here let out around May 22nd though I can't really say how much of the year they're losing, can probably make up finals and such when they have their stuff together.

Three weeks. Weren’t even going to give finals. Not everyone has internet. As soon as schools were let out most locked grades in. They could be potentially improved but not dropped. Mostly all they are doing is ungraded participation. It’s impossible to motivate my daughter to do ungraded homework. 
 

Made it that far with the current usage while stay at home orders were in effect. Things can change real quick now. 

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

Made it that far with the current usage while stay at home orders were in effect. Things can change real quick now. 

They can, although we obviously hope they don't.  That's really all we can do man.  Horse is out of the barn.

 

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We won't have to worry for long, guys:

 

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Interesting article in the NYT on the Swedish approach. 

"Political leaders rarely attend news conferences about the virus, and the Swedish Constitution prevents the government from meddling in the affairs of independent administrative authorities, such as the Public Health Authority. While there was some early talk in Sweden of achieving “herd immunity,” which would mean infecting at least 60 percent of the population, Mr. Tegnell denies that was ever the government’s policy."

The seem to be doing more or less what Georgia is.  Plenty of people seem to be ignoring the guidelines, though I'd guess they abide them better than we would.  

So far, not so bad.

I still lean towards a more cautious approach, but it's food for thought. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?smid=tw-share

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

It appears Arizona cases are on the rise...

Florida cases appear to on the downward trend even with the largest elderly population. Tremendous job by state health in Florida to protect the vulnerable so far.

I guess all those “hick governors” who were widely criticized for opening beaches (people outdoors in the sun is good lol) actually knew what they were doing. Weird! 🤔🤔 

 

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6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I guess all those “hick governors” who were widely criticized for opening beaches (people outdoors in the sun is good lol) actually knew what they were doing. Weird! 🤔🤔 

 

They’ve been open a few days. Given the incubation period of the virus we won’t know the effects for several weeks.

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The comparison to Ireland's death rate in that article is a strange choice.  The proper comparison is to Sweden's Scandinavian neighbors, and it's not a good look for Sweden:

image.thumb.png.d2d401a03ce2ea4fc04d4f1951522371.png

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16 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The death comparison to Ireland's death rate in that article is a strange choice.  The proper comparison is to Sweden's Scandinavian neighbors, and it's not a good look for Sweden:

image.thumb.png.d2d401a03ce2ea4fc04d4f1951522371.png

 

Would a higher initial death rate not be baked into their approach?  

I guess nobody knows rn but I wonder if their overall deaths will be any worse.  It doesn't seem like they are having extra deaths for lack of resources.  

Also, it could be modified. It seems crazy to me that they don't use masks. Seen stuff indicating that could be the most important precaution. 

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