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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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57 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I guess all those “hick governors” who were widely criticized for opening beaches (people outdoors in the sun is good lol) actually knew what they were doing. Weird! 🤔🤔 

 

Yeah, and I also don't remember seeing the same level of outrage about all the people on the beaches in California either. Wonder why? 

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Some interesting news coming in. Don’t want to dig, but I remember some discussion about that poor old couple who ingested cleaner for their koi pond because they were just listening to Trump!

Well, turns out she’s a psycho and being investigated for murder, so there’s that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/freebeacon.com/coronavirus/police-investigating-death-of-arizona-man-from-chloroquine-phosphate/amp/

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I read about that.  It was on a site that I didn't trust.  But, unless they were outright lying or just massively distorting everything, she def. killed him.

It also seemed like she staged a very good murder, in the sense that it would be extremely hard to prove. Straight out of Columbo.

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Interesting article in the NYT on the Swedish approach. 

"Political leaders rarely attend news conferences about the virus, and the Swedish Constitution prevents the government from meddling in the affairs of independent administrative authorities, such as the Public Health Authority. While there was some early talk in Sweden of achieving “herd immunity,” which would mean infecting at least 60 percent of the population, Mr. Tegnell denies that was ever the government’s policy."

The seem to be doing more or less what Georgia is.  Plenty of people seem to be ignoring the guidelines, though I'd guess they abide them better than we would.  

So far, not so bad.

I still lean towards a more cautious approach, but it's food for thought. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?smid=tw-share

Sweden has 233 deaths per million population to the US’ 179. If the US did what they did with the same death rate we would be sitting at 77,145 deaths instead of 59,266. Don’t think we want to follow their lead. 

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2 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Would a higher initial death rate not be baked into their approach?  

I guess nobody knows rn but I wonder if their overall deaths will be any worse.  It doesn't seem like they are having extra deaths for lack of resources.  

Also, it could be modified. It seems crazy to me that they don't use masks. Seen stuff indicating that could be the most important precaution. 

Look up St. Louis vs Philadelphia’s death rate during the 1918 pandemic. That’s the difference between a quarantine and letting people just live their lives 

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I guess all those “hick governors” who were widely criticized for opening beaches (people outdoors in the sun is good lol) actually knew what they were doing. Weird! 🤔🤔

Two words.  Incubation period.

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9 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Some interesting news coming in. Don’t want to dig, but I remember some discussion about that poor old couple who ingested cleaner for their koi pond because they were just listening to Trump!

Well, turns out she’s a psycho and being investigated for murder, so there’s that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/freebeacon.com/coronavirus/police-investigating-death-of-arizona-man-from-chloroquine-phosphate/amp/

These stories about people ingesting cleaner because Trump were total BS. It's what some people wanted to hear so the media gave it to them. Click bait. I thought this article summed it up nicely.

https://reason.com/2020/04/25/no-poison-control-calls-arent-suddenly-spiking-after-trumps-disinfectant-comments/

Yes, there's been a spike in people accidentally consuming cleaning products. It started in March. Maybe, just maybe it's because these products are sold out in every store. More people are using cleaning products more often. Everybody is stuck inside. More people are getting sick from them. 

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Sweden has 233 deaths per million population to the US’ 179. If the US did what they did with the same death rate we would be sitting at 77,145 deaths instead of 59,266. Don’t think we want to follow their lead. 

In terms of comparing 233 to 179 “per million”, what is the actual percentage difference? Some scientists might conclude that it’s actually a marginal difference between .00233% and .00179% and that it might be worth the end goal of building herd immunity. I’m not saying that’s true or that I can even conceivably wrap my head around their models and any of the decisions they have to make. I’m just curious as a layman if there’s merit to them saying that some more may die now but the overall number would be less and the goal of neutralizing COVID entirely is more critical. I’m in no place to say which is the right answer but I feel like this is the thinking behind Sweden and those in favor of their plan. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

In terms of comparing 233 to 179 “per million”, what is the actual percentage difference? Some scientists might conclude that it’s actually a marginal difference between .00233% and .00179% and that it might be worth the end goal of building herd immunity. I’m not saying that’s true or that I can even conceivably wrap my head around their models and any of the decisions they have to make. I’m just curious as a layman if there’s merit to them saying that some more may die now but the overall number would be less and the goal of neutralizing COVID entirely is more critical. I’m in no place to say which is the right answer but I feel like this is the thinking behind Sweden and those in favor of their plan. 

You end up calling thousands of lives marginal when you boil it down to percentages. Is that the angle you want to go?

Edited by Slatykamora
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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You end up calling thousands of lives marginal when you boil it down to percentages. Is that the angle you want to go?

You’re clearly not picking up what I’m putting down at all. I’m saying that 15,000 extra deaths now to save 100,000 lives on the back end *might be* THEIR justification for this (it’s an extreme example to demonstrate the point). I clearly stated that it’s not my opinion but you wanted to put that on me. I’m theorizing as to what their justification may be. They’re the ones with all the years of scientific expertise and statistical knowledge. For them, the difference between .0000233 and .0000179 might be less than a statistical standard deviation and hence negligible. But I admit, I don’t know either way. Just putting it out there as you have to consider all possibilities. My only knowledge of this stuff comes from fiction books and TV where sometimes the people in charge have to make the tougher decision now to mitigate the greater overall loss of life. I’m openly saying it sounds callous and terrible and that it could be wrong. But that doesn’t mean it necessarily is wrong. We just don’t know. 

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And let's remember that the entire argument is predicated on Sweden not suffering as much economically as countries that take more extreme measures, an argument that even a right-leaning US think tank suggests there is no evidence for:

Quote

The economic impact of the Swedish strategy is also unclear. The government certainly thinks it’s going to be pretty bad. According to the National Institute of Economic Research, an agency that reports to the Finance Ministry, its baseline scenario has Swedish real GDP growth declining by 3.4 percent this year, worse than its 2.9 percent forecast for the United States. It also sees a 6 percent contraction in the second quarter, comparable to the annualized US forecasts by Wall Street of a 25 percent to 30 percent contraction here from April through June. From the NIER: “Concern about infection and official advice on limiting social contact are putting a major damper on household demand, and delivery problems are disrupting production in parts of the business sector. … However, there is extreme uncertainty about future developments.” It doesn’t seem the light-touch approach provides immunity from severe economic hardship.

 

Sweden's economy is very export-driven, so the fact that they're contracting when the global economy is stalling should not surprise anyone, especially the Swedish government that chose to trade those excess lives for illusory economic benefits.

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12 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

And let's remember that the entire argument is predicated on Sweden not suffering as much economically as countries that take more extreme measures, an argument that even a right-leaning US think tank suggests there is no evidence for:

 

Sweden's economy is very export-driven, so the fact that they're contracting when the global economy is stalling should not surprise anyone, especially the Swedish government that chose to trade those excess lives for illusory economic benefits.

I thought it was also predicated on getting heard immunity quicker? In that sense, we won't know if what they did worked or not for over a year. Or at least until we start hearing their hospitals being so overrun it's leading to excess deaths via lack of treatment.

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6 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I thought it was also predicated on getting heard immunity quicker? In that sense, we won't know if what they did worked or not for over a year. Or at least until we start hearing their hospitals being so overrun it's leading to excess deaths via lack of treatment.

 

I'm not talking about the argument Swedish health officials made -- though the official in charge has "denied that 'herd immunity' formed the central thrust of Sweden's containment plan" -- I'm talking about the way that Sweden's natural experiment is being cited by others here and elsewhere on the internet.  Obviously nobody in the Swedish government was going to make an explicit case that they were trading lives for a chance at better economic results, but outside commentators have no such compunctions.

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39 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 

I thought it was also predicated on getting heard immunity quicker? In that sense, we won't know if what they did worked or not for over a year. Or at least until we start hearing their hospitals being so overrun it's leading to excess deaths via lack of treatment.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and architect of the policy, explained that his country’s approach to COVID-19 is “to let the virus spread as slow as possible, while sheltering the elderly and the vulnerable until much of the population becomes naturally immune or a vaccine becomes available.”

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

I read about that.  It was on a site that I didn't trust.  But, unless they were outright lying or just massively distorting everything, she def. killed him.

It also seemed like she staged a very good murder, in the sense that it would be extremely hard to prove. Straight out of Columbo.


sounds like that b**** Carol Baskins. 

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Updated numbers from GA, in case anyone was wondering:

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Biggest positive trend we've seen is the week over week positive cases on Monday and Tuesday.

4/20 - 1,240 new cases

4/21 - 767 new cases

and this week

4/27 - 737 new cases

4/28 - 643 new cases

and so far today 413 new cases, last Wednesday was 936.

This in spite of ramped up testing, we're up from 84,238 tests administered to 140,223.

 

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I'm assuming that the 3 Division realignment revamped plan will feature roughly 80 games in the regular season?

I don't see an actual game amount being thrown out there but assuming that they get it under way by the 4th of July that would give us 3 months of regular season and then October for playoffs games. 

I'm looking forward to a shortened regular season. It's going to make every game must see TV. 

 

 

 

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Just now, Cdub2k said:

I'm assuming that the 3 Division realignment revamped plan will feature roughly 80 games in the regular season?

I don't see an actual game amount being thrown out there but assuming that they get it under way by the 4th of July that would give us 3 months of regular season and then October for playoffs games. 

I'm looking forward to a shortened regular season. It's going to make every game must see TV. 

 

 

 

Yeah I believe Nightengale suggested 80-100 games yesterday.

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100 games would be ideal. Maybe have an All Star game in November after the season somewhere out west or down south. 

I'm hoping that they can pull this season off and hopefully by October we can have fans in the stands for the playoffs. 

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Yeah I believe Nightengale suggested 80-100 games yesterday.

 

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1 minute ago, Cdub2k said:

100 games would be ideal. Maybe have an All Star game in November after the season somewhere out west or down south. 

I'm hoping that they can pull this season off and hopefully by October we can have fans in the stands for the playoffs. 

 

Anything can happen six months from now,  who knows?

My gut feeling is that is unlikely we'll see fans until we get through the winter, but I could be wrong.

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5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Updated numbers from GA, in case anyone was wondering:

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Biggest positive trend we've seen is the week over week positive cases on Monday and Tuesday.

4/20 - 1,240 new cases

4/21 - 767 new cases

and this week

4/27 - 737 new cases

4/28 - 643 new cases

and so far today 413 new cases, last Wednesday was 936.

This in spite of ramped up testing, we're up from 84,238 tests administered to 140,223.

 

Georgia ended up with 797 so another jump back up. 

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Posted (edited)

Apparently 2500 people gathered in nyc for a rabbi’s funeral...nyc mayor receiving backlash for breaking it up

 

I thought nyc was the epicenter of this pandemic

Edited by Dr. Whom

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