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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Evening update added 198.

So there you have it.

April 17-23rd: 5509 new cases of Covid-19 in GA

April 24th-30th: 4409.

I think most folks probably would have told you with the social distancing restrictions rollback and all the new tests we'd see a 20% jump not a 20% drop.

We'll keep our fingers crossed for the next week.


seems like this may be the result of Stay at Home orders as the incubation period is on average 5 days and up to much longer in some cases. Given this week orders have loosened in some places, we aren’t even 5 days in yet. Fingers definitely crossed for the next couple weeks we don’t see a lot of spikes but have to say, it’s worrisome. The contagious nature of this thing sucks and not much has changed besides social distancing. 

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13 minutes ago, tucker26 said:


seems like this may be the result of Stay at Home orders as the incubation period is on average 5 days and up to much longer in some cases. Given this week orders have loosened in some places, we aren’t even 5 days in yet. Fingers definitely crossed for the next couple weeks we don’t see a lot of spikes but have to say, it’s worrisome. The contagious nature of this thing sucks and not much has changed besides social distancing. 

That was the point of the OP, social distancing rollbacks across the state of Georgia went into effect 7 days ago.

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

That was the point of the OP, social distancing rollbacks across the state of Georgia went into effect 7 days ago.


Well my point was that he was appearing to apply stay at home days (24th-28th if going off the 5 day median) and giving them credit for the rollback days of the 24th-30th, and it appears he may not be the only one. I want this thing to go away as much as anyone. However, using the majority of days in an incubation period stemming from Stay at Home Orders to see optimism in the rollback period doesn't add up when you consider the incubation period. Further, a lot the local governments didn't even like idea of reopening so it remains to be seen if people even venture out that much more during this time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/georgia-coronavirus-reopening.html Many comments in that article where people are saying the next 2 weeks will tell the real story. 

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7 hours ago, tucker26 said:


Well my point was that he was appearing to apply stay at home days (24th-28th if going off the 5 day median) and giving them credit for the rollback days of the 24th-30th, and it appears he may not be the only one. I want this thing to go away as much as anyone. However, using the majority of days in an incubation period stemming from Stay at Home Orders to see optimism in the rollback period doesn't add up when you consider the incubation period. Further, a lot the local governments didn't even like idea of reopening so it remains to be seen if people even venture out that much more during this time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/georgia-coronavirus-reopening.html Many comments in that article where people are saying the next 2 weeks will tell the real story. 

Yeah, as I said in my OP "the 14 day window will be MUCH more telling than the 7."

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This seems totally above board and not suspicious at all...

Quote

Coronavirus: Florida medical examiners were releasing COVID-19 death data. The state made them stop.

State officials have stopped releasing the list of coronavirus deaths being compiled by Florida’s medical examiners, which has at times shown a higher death toll than the state’s published count.

The list had previously been released in real time by the state Medical Examiners Commission. But earlier this month, after the Tampa Bay Times reported that the medical examiners’ death count was 10 percent higher than the figure released by the Florida Department of Health, state officials said the list needed to be reviewed and possibly redacted. [...]

The agency has attempted at least once to block information about deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, from becoming public.

Last month, it tried to persuade the medical examiner’s office in Miami-Dade County to restrict access to its death records, according to the Miami Herald and correspondence between the two agencies obtained by the Times.

 

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Posted (edited)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/01/coronavirus-wont-end-2-years-worse-second-wave-study-warns/3064708001/

The head of the CDC and Fauci have also said the return of the coronavirus in the Fall is all but inevitable. This after months of a slow return to normal only to be locked down again in the Fall and Winter. At this point, I wonder what the point is of the course we're on? From the outset, the purpose of "flattening the curve" was to prevent the hospital system from becoming overwhelmed -- that didn't happen quite to the extent the models predicted.

If this is gonna be a long-drawn out process, shouldn't we be taking a stab at "herd immunity" or adopting some incarnation of Sweden's approach? It seems 99.5% of the population survive infection and we know who is most at risk to protect. Wouldn't it be better to attempt to isolate those most at risk and get all the healthy people out there spreading it amongst themselves? Obviously this would not be a perfect system but people are going to die regardless of what we do. Are we only delaying the inevitable and putting us into a precarious situation come Fall when this thing will run rampant with the Flu? 

Edited by IceGoat

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49 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

BREAKING: Georgia verifies 1K new COVID-19 cases in 24 hours

Not enough on its own to break the slight downward trend of the last few days, but not a good number for a single day.

Definitely a drag.  Had to be expected at some point we'd have a bump.  Hopefully not the start of a trend but we'll see.

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Hopefully only the new cases are going up ( due to testing ) and new deaths are going down as Doctors develop more effective treatment plans...

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Been using home delivery for the last 5 years so this isn't something I am doing because of the virus. For this week I ordered 3 lbs of burger, 3 lbs of chicken breasts, and 2 butterfly chops. Been slowly building up a supply of meat for this winter when for me times get a tad tough (heating bills and snow removal). All three meat products were listed as out of stock along with all cleaning products.

 

Guess the reports of  meat processing plants shutting down have come true. Something for everyone to start looking out for. It just isn't toilet paper any longer.

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2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Been using home delivery for the last 5 years so this isn't something I am doing because of the virus. For this week I ordered 3 lbs of burger, 3 lbs of chicken breasts, and 2 butterfly chops. Been slowly building up a supply of meat for this winter when for me times get a tad tough (heating bills and snow removal). All three meat products were listed as out of stock along with all cleaning products.

 

Guess the reports of  meat processing plants shutting down have come true. Something for everyone to start looking out for. It just isn't toilet paper any longer.

Well right now it's a self fulfilling prophecy. Meat is running low because people buying so much of it. Thanks to being told of the shortage. \

You would still have fairly full meat cases today if there was no news of this happening.  It would have been down the road things would have gotten thin. Though stores would have started rationing to spread out the supply.

With the hyper demand, rationing attempts basically mean empty shelves..

I'm a Butcher, btw.

 

 

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That reminds me... 

I've seen several things to this effect.  If you think you are supporting local biz using uber eats, postmates, etc... turns out you aren't really. I never knew how much these delivery services screwed over local businesses.  The best recommendation I've seen is to use them to browse if you'd like, then order take out or delivery directly from the place.

 

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5 hours ago, IceGoat said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/01/coronavirus-wont-end-2-years-worse-second-wave-study-warns/3064708001/

The head of the CDC and Fauci have also said the return of the coronavirus in the Fall is all but inevitable. This after months of a slow return to normal only to be locked down again in the Fall and Winter. At this point, I wonder what the point is of the course we're on? From the outset, the purpose of "flattening the curve" was to prevent the hospital system from becoming overwhelmed -- that didn't happen quite to the extent the models predicted.

If this is gonna be a long-drawn out process, shouldn't we be taking a stab at "herd immunity" or adopting some incarnation of Sweden's approach? It seems 99.5% of the population survive infection and we know who is most at risk to protect. Wouldn't it be better to attempt to isolate those most at risk and get all the healthy people out there spreading it amongst themselves? Obviously this would not be a perfect system but people are going to die regardless of what we do. Are we only delaying the inevitable and putting us into a precarious situation come Fall when this thing will run rampant with the Flu? 

Swedens death rate is 12%...

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Not the Sweden thing again.  This zombie nonsense pops up every few pages.  Let's try pictures this time for the visual learners among us.

Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story

image.thumb.png.bbc7fe0fa3af1796fc7acc5a4c8e31ea.png

 

No, Sweden Isn’t a Miracle Coronavirus Model

image.thumb.png.0b939d98872a5c615249b4dec8d1c48b.png

 

Has Sweden found the best response to the coronavirus? Its death rate suggests it hasn’t.

total_covid_deaths_per_million.png

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Swedens death rate is 12%...

 

Yeah well the death rate of covid clearly isn’t 12% or anything close to that.  

Anyway, the herd immunity plan sounds great on paper until you realize how difficult that path is. If I’m even in my 40s and 50s I don’t love the plan of “just go to work and play a game of Russian roulette so the stock market doesn’t tank”

Edited by merlin401

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18 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Not the Sweden thing again.  This zombie nonsense pops up every few pages.  Let's try pictures this time for the visual learners among us.

Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story

image.thumb.png.bbc7fe0fa3af1796fc7acc5a4c8e31ea.png

 

No, Sweden Isn’t a Miracle Coronavirus Model

image.thumb.png.0b939d98872a5c615249b4dec8d1c48b.png

 

Has Sweden found the best response to the coronavirus? Its death rate suggests it hasn’t.

total_covid_deaths_per_million.png

 

It's too early to tell. Sweden's numbers will look worse at first but in the end will they? Once the other Scandinavian countries relax their restrictions, will they not have surges in cases and fatalities? All these lockdowns may to be accomplishing is stretching out the cases and fatalities over a longer period of time. 

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/michael-osterholm-no-question-there-will-be-more-coronavirus-infections-82846790000

Director of the Center for Disease Research and Policy, Michael Osterholm, predicts 60-70% of Americans will be infected. According to him, the disease stops at that number because we achieved "herd immunity." If the hospitals are not being overrun, what is the purpose of the lockdown? Shouldn't we try to choose what demographic of Americans make up the 60-70% to save as many lives as possible?  

 

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26 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Yeah well the death rate of covid clearly isn’t 12% or anything close to that.  

Anyway, the herd immunity plan sounds great on paper until you realize how difficult that path is. If I’m even in my 40s and 50s I don’t love the plan of “just go to work and play a game of Russian roulette so the stock market doesn’t tank”

Maybe its that awful idea of herd immunity they are trying.

 

And going by the stats its 12% in sweden.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Maybe its that awful idea of herd immunity they are trying.

 

And going by the stats its 12% in sweden.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Maybe it will be. I'm certainly skeptical, but you can't really know if it worked until this is over. It's pretty obvious that the numbers were going to be high in the early stages and i'm sure they knew that.

Edited by Slatykamora

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18 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Maybe its that awful idea of herd immunity they are trying.

 

And going by the stats its 12% in sweden.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Well, Osterholm, who knows more than anyone in this forum, expects 60-70% of Americans will get the disease and 800,000 will succumb to it. Social distancing seems futile if that's the reality which awaits us. I do hope he is wrong. He is an ostensibly smart man, but boy do I always regret hearing his straight talk. 

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2 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

Well, Osterholm, who knows more than anyone in this forum, expects 60-70% of Americans will get the disease and 800,000 will succumb to it. Social distancing seems futile if that's the reality which awaits us. I do hope he is wrong. He is an ostensibly smart man, but boy do I always regret hearing his straight talk. 

Thats because morons are protesting that its a hoax. Also i see people everywhere NOT social distancing. Hardly anyone wears masks and people are grouping together.

 

It doesnt work if people arent doing it

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6 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Thats because morons are protesting that its a hoax. Also i see people everywhere NOT social distancing. Hardly anyone wears masks and people are grouping together.

 

It doesnt work if people arent doing it

 

That's besides the point -- all proper social distancing will do is delay the inevitable. The lockdowns are a useful stopgap if hospitals are on the verge of getting burdened. Otherwise, we may only be protracting this event by doing what we're doing. 

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3 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

That's besides the point -- all proper social distancing will do is delay the inevitable. The lockdowns are a useful stopgap if hospitals are on the verge of getting burdened. Otherwise, we may only be protracting this event by doing what we're doing. 

How is that besides the point? lmao

If a doctor tells you to take a medication and you dont then complain that taking the medicine is "besides the point" doesnt that seem ridiculous to you?

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"Protracting the event" provides time to develop and test antivirals and vaccines. Even if hospital capacity were infinite -- which it certainly is not -- slowing things down early saves lives. 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

How is that besides the point? lmao

If a doctor tells you to take a medication and you dont then complain that taking the medicine is "besides the point" doesnt that seem ridiculous to you?

 

I'm telling you social distancing isn't the medication or cure for the predicament we're in. Most Americans, according to this expert, will get infected anyway. 

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Just now, IceGoat said:

 

I'm telling you social distancing isn't the medication or cure for the predicament we're in. Most Americans, according to this expert, will get infected anyway. 

Appeal to authority. Logical fallacy

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