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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

"Protracting the event" provides time to develop and test antivirals and vaccines. Even if hospital capacity were infinite -- which it certainly is not -- slowing things down early saves lives. 

 

That's a true point, but we're probably going to hit 60-70% exposure before a vaccine is developed. And, remaining locked down as we are now is unsustainable. The economic implications will be profound. 

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48 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

It's too early to tell. Sweden's numbers will look worse at first but in the end will they? Once the other Scandinavian countries relax their restrictions, will they not have surges in cases and fatalities? All these lockdowns may to be accomplishing is stretching out the cases and fatalities over a longer period of time. 

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/michael-osterholm-no-question-there-will-be-more-coronavirus-infections-82846790000

Director of the Center for Disease Research and Policy, Michael Osterholm, predicts 60-70% of Americans will be infected. According to him, the disease stops at that number because we achieved "herd immunity." If the hospitals are not being overrun, what is the purpose of the lockdown? Shouldn't we try to choose what demographic of Americans make up the 60-70% to save as many lives as possible?  

 

This is correct. What flattening the curve does is extend the length of time that deaths continue. We’re not sure what the results will be. Will Sweden be nearing an end when a second wave comes for us in the Fall?

The “zombie nonsense” is looking at current numbers and yelling “See!” and not understanding we won’t know what the right answer was until it’s over, unfortunately. But Sweden just might be doing it right. 

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14 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

I'm telling you social distancing isn't the medication or cure for the predicament we're in. Most Americans, according to this expert, will get infected anyway. 

 

50% of Americans getting it over the next year is lightyears different than 50% of Americans getting it in May

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3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

This is correct. What flattening the curve does is extend the length of time that deaths continue. We’re not sure what the results will be. Will Sweden be nearing an end when a second wave comes for us in the Fall?

The “zombie nonsense” is looking at current numbers and yelling “See!” and not understanding we won’t know what the right answer was until it’s over, unfortunately. But Sweden just might be doing it right. 

 

I just hope they continue on this path and don't succumb to the pressure. We need a control country in this morbid experiment. Who knows how it'll play out. 

By the way, I meant for my earlier post to be in the other thread but I screwed up.   

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Just now, merlin401 said:

 

50% of Americans getting it over the next year is lightyears different than 50% of Americans getting it in May

 

True, but what if most of those Americans who got it in May were young and healthy? 

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5 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

True, but what if most of those Americans who got it in May were young and healthy? 

 

I honestly don’t know what the best course forward is. I can intellectually make cases from a very detached level about certain strategies but they all have some very challenging hurdles to realistically and effectively be implemented. 

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Someone suggested that what we are going through right now is the second wave. 

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6 minutes ago, B&F said:

Someone suggested that what we are going through right now is the second wave. 

 

I hope we're further along than we think we are, but the reports are foreboding.  

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3 hours ago, IceGoat said:

That's a true point, but we're probably going to hit 60-70% exposure before a vaccine is developed. And, remaining locked down as we are now is unsustainable. The economic implications will be profound. 

 

Antivirals are likely to be available much sooner than that, though, and can turn cases that would become deaths in the early going into cases that become recoveries once there are treatments available.  It remains to be seen if remdesivir is the ticket, but there are others out there undergoing early trials, and they can get to market as soon as this fall.  And it's not just antivirals -- doctors are also developing more effective protocols as they learn more about the disease that could push down fatality rates over time.

By front-loading the deaths as Sweden has chosen to do, you forego those opportunities to save lives.  This would be tragic enough if Sweden's strategy had led to good economic outcomes, which is what we were told would happen by proponents of Sweden's strategy, but as mentioned just a couple days ago, they haven't.  Here's an update with an even more dire forecast for Sweden's economy:

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

Quote

Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said “depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place.” Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.

 

 

3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

The “zombie nonsense” is looking at current numbers and yelling “See!” and not understanding we won’t know what the right answer was until it’s over, unfortunately. But Sweden just might be doing it right. 


Yep, and the Pirates may end up winning the Chris Archer trade if Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz are captured by aliens.  But if that happens, that doesn't suddenly vindicate Neal Huntington, because good outcomes don't vindicate bad process.

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7 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Antivirals are likely to be available much sooner than that, though, and can turn cases that would become deaths in the early going into cases that become recoveries once there are treatments available.  It remains to be seen if remdesivir is the ticket, but there are others out there undergoing early trials, and they can get to market as soon as this fall.  And it's not just antivirals -- doctors are also developing more effective protocols as they learn more about the disease that could push down fatality rates over time.

By front-loading the deaths as Sweden has chosen to do, you forego those opportunities to save lives.  This would be tragic enough if Sweden's strategy had led to good economic outcomes, which is what we were told would happen by proponents of Sweden's strategy, but as mentioned just a couple days ago, they haven't.  Here's an update with an even more dire forecast for Sweden's economy:

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

 

 


Yep, and the Pirates may end up winning the Chris Archer trade if Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz are captured by aliens.  But if that happens, that doesn't suddenly vindicate Neal Huntington, because good outcomes don't vindicate bad process.

That trade has played itself out for a few years now. Part of the reason for trying this process was because of Scandinavian culture.The people were not just going to act like nothing is happening. 

Lets be clear, this was always going to be a really bad process for western Europe and US.

The wave of people clamoring for re-opening is only going to get more aggressive the longer this goes. Sure, if we do this right, we only have to do this once. That might not jive with human nature/psychology. Will these anti virals be enough to lower the death rate to curve the cumulative deaths of a 2nd wave that faucci seems to think is likely?

I don't find that answer to be as obvious as a trade who's results have been playing out for years now. Maybe you do.

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, IceGoat said:

 

I'm telling you social distancing isn't the medication or cure for the predicament we're in. Most Americans, according to this expert, will get infected anyway. 

It’s been proven to be effective for a pandemic much worse than this one so far. 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic the cities of St Louis and Philadelphia chose two very different roads. St. Louis locked down, Philadelphia went through with life as normal. At the end of the pandemic the death rate in St Louis was 358 per 100,000, Philadelphia was 748 per 100,000. So unless you are a proponent of twice the deaths happening I wouldn’t keep going with the open up the country route. Also, the second wave was 10x more deadly with the Spanish flu. That’ll be this fall when the seasonal flu also emerges. 

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2 minutes ago, B&F said:


Would love to know if they get symptoms that significantly affects their play.

If you are going the route athletes will all have mild symptoms you might wanna look up Von Miller. 

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11 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

50% of Americans getting it over the next year is lightyears different than 50% of Americans getting it in May

 

What experts were saying 50% of Americans would have it by May?...  

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3 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

What experts were saying 50% of Americans would have it by May?...  

I think his point was that flattening the curve prevents a bunch of people getting at once. His % was stated for that sake of that. 

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41 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

It’s been proven to be effective for a pandemic much worse than this one so far. 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic the cities of St Louis and Philadelphia chose two very different roads. St. Louis locked down, Philadelphia went through with life as normal. At the end of the pandemic the death rate in St Louis was 358 per 100,000, Philadelphia was 748 per 100,000. So unless you are a proponent of twice the deaths happening I wouldn’t keep going with the open up the country route. Also, the second wave was 10x more deadly with the Spanish flu. That’ll be this fall when the seasonal flu also emerges. 

 

The Spanish Flu itself isn't 10x more deadly than covid-19.  This is another conflation of the facts.

 

Yes if you look at the raw numbers sure you can make that case right now (covid continues to climb).  But consider you're looking at the 1918 flu over a full year compared to covid-19 over just over a 2 month period.  Also you are entirely ignoring the leaps in medicine and the health care infrastructure in the last 100+ years.

 

The Spanish Flu was H1N1.  Which came back around in 2009 and was handled very well and never became much of an issue.

 

But ultimately you are right about the social distancing.  It will save lives.  But there is a point to where it is hindering people more than helping people.  We aren't there yet but I am fairly certain that point is a lot closer than most people think.

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40 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

If you are going the route athletes will all have mild symptoms you might wanna look up Von Miller. 

Von Miller has asthma and is now negative after two weeks...he said he only went out 4 times and still got it. He recovered at home with team doctors

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3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I think his point was that flattening the curve prevents a bunch of people getting at once. His % was stated for that sake of that. 

 

Okay I guess but the numbers he used were so far out of bounds.

 

All the projections I saw were 25%-60% infected within the first year (not 2 months).  We are still under 1% of the population infected (at least going off of confirmed cases).  Even double that and we are still under 2% and no expert out there is saying they estimate actual cases to be double that of the confirmed cases.  Most experts I've seen are estimating 25-50% more cases than the confirmed due to asymptomatic, presymptomatic, people not going in with it, and false negatives.

 

On a global scale the confirmed cases are less than 0.5% of the world population.  

 

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14 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

The Spanish Flu itself isn't 10x more deadly than covid-19.  This is another conflation of the facts.

 

Yes if you look at the raw numbers sure you can make that case right now (covid continues to climb).  But consider you're looking at the 1918 flu over a full year compared to covid-19 over just over a 2 month period.  Also you are entirely ignoring the leaps in medicine and the health care infrastructure in the last 100+ years.

 

The Spanish Flu was H1N1.  Which came back around in 2009 and was handled very well and never became much of an issue.

 

But ultimately you are right about the social distancing.  It will save lives.  But there is a point to where it is hindering people more than helping people.  We aren't there yet but I am fairly certain that point is a lot closer than most people think.

Did you read my post at all. I never said Spanish flu was 10x more deadly then Covid. I said the second WAVE of Spanish flu was 10x deadlier than the first. 

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31 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Okay I guess but the numbers he used were so far out of bounds.

 

All the projections I saw were 25%-60% infected within the first year (not 2 months).  We are still under 1% of the population infected (at least going off of confirmed cases).  Even double that and we are still under 2% and no expert out there is saying they estimate actual cases to be double that of the confirmed cases.  Most experts I've seen are estimating 25-50% more cases than the confirmed due to asymptomatic, presymptomatic, people not going in with it, and false negatives.

 

On a global scale the confirmed cases are less than 0.5% of the world population.  

 

I can find the article again but there was some research that said there are probably 16x the cases out there than we know of (due to no symptoms, minor symptoms, not being tested, etc.)

Covid does seem to be pretty transmitable. 

 

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38 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I can find the article again but there was some research that said there are probably 16x the cases out there than we know of (due to no symptoms, minor symptoms, not being tested, etc.)

Covid does seem to be pretty transmitable. 

 

My fringe understanding is Due to being able transmit by talking and breathing. Most virus's need you to at least cough or sneeze. While COVID can avoiding/delaying an immune response quite a bit while it hyper replicates. Which results in A-symptomatic carrier trait we are familiar with.

 

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

That trade has played itself out for a few years now. 


Right, but you can't measure a baseball trade and an epidemic strategy on the same time scale.  A good player's career lasts 15+ years, while the hope is we can knock this thing out within a year or two.  A lot of observers including myself were willing to give the Archer deal the benefit of the doubt from Pittsburgh's perspective, but it became clear well within a year that the Buccos got fleeced.  Similarly, when data on a pandemic's effect on various countries comes in over a couple of months, that's very meaningful.  Also, let's remember that the UK also pursued the "take the punch" herd immunity strategy and it backfired there, so we're not talking about an isolated data point.

Similarly, while I was certainly skeptical of the Sweden strategy early on, I didn't start criticizing it here until the last week or two, after so many of the evolving arguments Sweden's proponents were making had been shown to be lacking.  First it was that it would reduce the overall number of deaths and save the economy.  Then when the grim fatality numbers came into focus, the argument was that it would probably be similar in terms of deaths (just in a shorter period of time) but it would be worth it because of the economic benefits.  Now it's become clear that there have been no economic benefits as compared to neighbors who instituted lockdowns, so the argument is that there will be benefits in the future, or that "Scandinavian culture" won't let people do lockdowns (ProTip: the Finns, Danes, and Norwegians who did lockdowns -- also Scandinavian!)...  I don't even know what the argument is anymore, because it seems to evolve as more data comes in undermining whatever argument was used most recently.

So, yeah, obviously we can't say for certain that Sweden's strategy won't look much better in 3 or 6 months time, and I will be enormously happy to be proven wrong if it does.  But at this point, people believing that it will are operating solely on first principles to arrive at their conclusions.

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3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

German soccer league took a small hit. They just started training and 3 are infected already

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/may/01/three-cologne-players-test-positive-for-covid-19-as-training-continues

will be interesting to see if this affects the decision on may6. there is a General discussion here going on. why make exceptions for Sports, Soccer? does it set a bad example for Young People and Kids. they are not allowed to Play. why can the Bundesliga simply buy Tests? should we put more effort in Hospitals and nursing homes first.

 

on the other Hand large number of tests went unused, because there are not that many cases anymore. and Overall numbers are declining. other Things will reopen for sure after next week.

 

my opinion. a week ago i would have said it is 80-20 for a Restart of the Bundesliga. now i would guess its 50-50.

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