bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Honest question for everybody.. and while i realize no one here is a scientist (hell, even they dont really know what is happening) we all have opinions.

For example, i originally expected all states/provinces to place strict lockdown rules and that the population would use common sense and adhere to these rules. This wasnt the case, therefore, all my expectations about seasons resuming shortly after failed to be proven true. I personally now stand in a position where i am questioning what is happening... from 3000 people protests in California, to states not locking down, to re-opening too soon, to small protests in Vancouver and here in Toronto. I get it, economy is drowning, people are broke, families need to be fed and rent needs to be paid, but, at what point do we just play Russian Roulette and throw everyone out there and people (you and i) become content with the fact we may get COVID-19.. we may not get COVID-19.. and get on with lives.. if we ever do confidently? beyond that, where do professional sports leagues stand in terms of just canceing the year? NHL,MLB,NBA all have expressed confidence that seasons will take place.. but, if states like Georgia who have re-opened are experiencing spikes in cases, wouldnt that be the same for otherS? therefore reducing the chances of sports returning? 

in short, i no longer have a genuine opinion on anything..just a ton of questions.. and am playing the wait and see game at this point.. humans are dangerous to our fellow species and to our planet.

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Be glad most of us have the luxury to lock up for few months and not living in a third world country. According to the article, about 9M people a year die from hunger. U.N.'s humanitarian chief says that number could double this year due to COVID economic fallout. Oof...

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic

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8 minutes ago, jonninho said:

 but, if states like Georgia who have re-opened are experiencing spikes in cases

Minor point of clarification here.

The spike on the 1st of May***MIGHT*** have been a result of a "data dump" of new tests, of which we had many more over the past few weeks than we had previously.

This is not to say that new confirmed cases are good, obviously, but rather to express that a number of these folks may have already been sick but just recently tested.

Likewise, since we are still at such a limited testing capacity, the true rate of transmission is a mystery.  However, in spite of the spike on the 1st and increased testing, we've still had less positive confirmed cases since reopening than over the same time period before it.

IF we have a prolonged period of say, over 1,000 confirmed cases for several days in a row, or some day where we have a new high in positive cases...that's going to turn some heads.  But we're not there yet.  The past couple days have been in the norm of trend lines.

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1 hour ago, jonninho said:

Honest question for everybody.. and while i realize no one here is a scientist (hell, even they dont really know what is happening) we all have opinions.

For example, i originally expected all states/provinces to place strict lockdown rules and that the population would use common sense and adhere to these rules. This wasnt the case, therefore, all my expectations about seasons resuming shortly after failed to be proven true. I personally now stand in a position where i am questioning what is happening... from 3000 people protests in California, to states not locking down, to re-opening too soon, to small protests in Vancouver and here in Toronto. I get it, economy is drowning, people are broke, families need to be fed and rent needs to be paid, but, at what point do we just play Russian Roulette and throw everyone out there and people (you and i) become content with the fact we may get COVID-19.. we may not get COVID-19.. and get on with lives.. if we ever do confidently? beyond that, where do professional sports leagues stand in terms of just canceing the year? NHL,MLB,NBA all have expressed confidence that seasons will take place.. but, if states like Georgia who have re-opened are experiencing spikes in cases, wouldnt that be the same for otherS? therefore reducing the chances of sports returning? 

in short, i no longer have a genuine opinion on anything..just a ton of questions.. and am playing the wait and see game at this point.. humans are dangerous to our fellow species and to our planet.

NBA hasn’t expressly canceled but they are expecting the new year to begin around Christmas next season. 

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On 5/3/2020 at 6:59 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

Guys, nothing to worry about. I was just on Facebook and found out this whole thing is made up. 

Give me a break. Stop trying to minimalize the issue.

I was just on Facebook and found out Bill Gates is going to kill us all. 

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4 hours ago, fletch44 said:

Be glad most of us have the luxury to lock up for few months and not living in a third world country. According to the article, about 9M people a year die from hunger. U.N.'s humanitarian chief says that number could double this year due to COVID economic fallout. Oof...

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/05/850470436/u-n-warns-number-of-people-starving-to-death-could-double-amid-pandemic

Yeah...I mentioned it other places here...2 million+ have dies already this year to starvation compared to 250k+ from covid19. The billions we are spending on therapies and vaccines could save 2 million people from dying. The only reason we are spending money on this and not that is because covid19 affects rich people as well.

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4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Minor point of clarification here.

The spike on the 1st of May***MIGHT*** have been a result of a "data dump" of new tests, of which we had many more over the past few weeks than we had previously.

This is not to say that new confirmed cases are good, obviously, but rather to express that a number of these folks may have already been sick but just recently tested.

Likewise, since we are still at such a limited testing capacity, the true rate of transmission is a mystery.  However, in spite of the spike on the 1st and increased testing, we've still had less positive confirmed cases since reopening than over the same time period before it.

IF we have a prolonged period of say, over 1,000 confirmed cases for several days in a row, or some day where we have a new high in positive cases...that's going to turn some heads.  But we're not there yet.  The past couple days have been in the norm of trend lines.

Not directed at you...Why are we so bad at testing? No state has the capacity to run more tests unless new labs are built correct? Why aren't university labs trying to help? Can't med/nursing students help give tests?   Don't we enough swabs and reagents by now?

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yeah...I mentioned it other places here...2 million+ have dies already this year to starvation compared to 250k+ from covid19. The billions we are spending on therapies and vaccines could save 2 million people from dying. The only reason we are spending money on this and not that is because covid19 affects rich people as well.

Oh my. Are you even paying attention 

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4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Minor point of clarification here.

The spike on the 1st of May***MIGHT*** have been a result of a "data dump" of new tests, of which we had many more over the past few weeks than we had previously.

This is not to say that new confirmed cases are good, obviously, but rather to express that a number of these folks may have already been sick but just recently tested.

Likewise, since we are still at such a limited testing capacity, the true rate of transmission is a mystery.  However, in spite of the spike on the 1st and increased testing, we've still had less positive confirmed cases since reopening than over the same time period before it.

IF we have a prolonged period of say, over 1,000 confirmed cases for several days in a row, or some day where we have a new high in positive cases...that's going to turn some heads.  But we're not there yet.  The past couple days have been in the norm of trend lines.

The numbers mean nothing. People are still getting sick and not caring about the consequences. 

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10 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

The numbers mean nothing. People are still getting sick and not caring about the consequences. 

Well I wouldn't say they "mean nothing."

They certainly mean a lot to the individuals who test positive and negative respectively.

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https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-05-20-intl/h_d846f6fc676c33ff3dc17971677e72b8

A new genetic analysis of the virus that causes Covid-19 taken from more than 7,600 patients around the world shows the virus has been circulating in people since late last year, and must have spread extremely quickly after the first infection.

Researchers in Britain looked at mutations in the virus and found evidence of quick spread, but not evidence the virus is becoming more easily transmitted or more likely to cause serious disease.

“The virus is changing, but this in itself does not mean it’s getting worse,” genetics researcher Francois Balloux of the University College London Genetics Institute told CNN.

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9 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Update from GA: Week 2 of the "reopening" has been worse than week 1, thus far.

After the initial week of cases dropping, we've seen the third largest day of positive confirmed cases since the crisis began last Friday, the 1st, at 1,230 new cases.  The peak day was still back on April 7th at over 1,600.

We're now at day 12 since Kemp relaxed stay at home orders on the 24th.  We're at 7,581 new cases since then.

In the 11 day window prior to the 24th (13-23rd) we had 9,328 new cases.

 

 

No matter what side of the coin you are on this is simply not a valid way to look at the issue.

Of course there is going to be an initial spike in cases. That’s what happens when more people go outside. However, what needs to be looked at is:

1) Does the initial spike result in overwhelming hospitals (remember, this was the main reason argued for the shutdown)

2) What is the impact on deaths long term? Just because there is a spike doesn’t mean more people will die over the long term. For all we know, it can be like walking vs running a marathon. You reach the same distance just at different time frames.

3) What are the improvements to the economy from reopening? How does it effect quality of life, small businesses, mental health, employment, education, physical health, and other factors?

You look at all the factors and then you can determine if it is the right move or not. That’s something that takes time to know. However, Sweden was treated as some horrible country and let’s just say they aren’t looking nearly as bad as some models made it out to be. My point is, you can’t just say “see there’s a spike thus opening is bad.” Obviously there’s an increase in cases initially but it’s not that simple. 

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

No matter what side of the coin you are on this is simply not a valid way to look at the issue.

Of course there is going to be an initial spike in cases. That’s what happens when more people go outside. However, what needs to be looked at is:

1) Does the initial spike result in overwhelming hospitals (remember, this was the main reason argued for the shutdown)

2) What is the impact on deaths long term? Just because there is a spike doesn’t mean more people will die over the long term. For all we know, it can be like walking vs running a marathon. You reach the same distance just at different time frames.

3) What are the improvements to the economy from reopening? How does it effect quality of life, small businesses, mental health, employment, education, physical health, and other factors?

You look at all the factors and then you can determine if it is the right move or not. That’s something that takes time to know. However, Sweden was treated as some horrible country and let’s just say they aren’t looking nearly as bad as some models made it out to be. My point is, you can’t just say “see there’s a spike thus opening is bad.” Obviously there’s an increase in cases initially but it’s not that simple. 

Yeah.

This thread is ginormous, so I don't blame you for not looking at my earlier posts in here about how the UI trust has been affected, Kemp and the GDOPH expressing that ancillary health care units and testing facilities in the state has given them confidence that our health care system will not be overburdened, the lack of testing in the previous month and a half not giving us a clear view into transmission, etc.

I'm very much aware of all the mitigating factors.

HOWEVER, this is the information on the ground now, that is A.) Easiest to disseminate quickly and B.) Helps to inform some of the other considerations.

And some people have expressed interest in wanting to see the 14 day figures here since we opened up first, and since I live here I am obliging.  The rest of what we're talking about will take significantly longer to determine.  If you want to research deaths too that's fine, the information is readily available at the Georgia Deoartment of Public Health website.  I'm leaving that off my updates.

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Everyone should read the 1st page of this thread.  It makes for interesting reading.

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23 minutes ago, Short Porch said:

Everyone should read the 1st page of this thread.  It makes for interesting reading.

Agree, though I wouldn't be too hard on those who downplayed it early on.  It's true, our media have tried to create panic after panic with varying success.  Boy who cried wolf.  But obviously, we need to adjust as real info comes in.

 

Anyway, Vietnam recently reopened schools.  They only had a couple hundred cases and no deaths, with a population of about 90 million.  

Seems like the minute someone picks it up again, they're back to square one. But what do I know.  I guess they can just quarantine everyone who enters the country until vaccines or treatments emerge.  

Some footage and details:

 

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News from Germany.

 

Bundesliga  will Restart!

 

when? it is up to the league. every Team will have to go in a time of quarantine before the restart. unclear how long. 7-14 days. it is not the "normal" 14 days because they test more. 

realistic now is a Restart may 15 or may 22. i expect the league to announce today or tomorrow.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, cornerback said:

News from Germany.

 

Bundesliga  will Restart!

 

when? it is up to the league. every Team will have to go in a time of quarantine before the restart. unclear how long. 7-14 days. it is not the "normal" 14 days because they test more. 

realistic now is a Restart may 15 or may 22. i expect the league to announce today or tomorrow.

 

 

Thank God. Atleast some countries have gotten things right and are getting back to normal.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

So they are discussing bringing baseball back in June/July, with coronavirus death rates per day actually increasing in the USA (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?) still and not decreasing!? Sounds really caring for human beings over sports lol

I'm not seeing data where the cases or deaths per day are rising in the United States as a whole.

According to the chart on your link, it appears to me they've plateaued under the "daily new cases" and "daily new deaths" charts.  The rolling 7 day average of both cases an deaths has been declining every day since April 24th.

This is in alignment with the CDC data.

The validity of the data may be in question with the all of the independent variables including amount and quality of testing, every state carries different data, and with 43 states in some partial state of reopening very recently up to this weekend may be subject to change, but these per day numbers are decreasing, not increasing.

 

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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18 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Thank God. Atleast some countries have gotten things right and are getting back to normal.

DFL will meet with all Clubs  tomorrow to discuss Dates. definite plan should be clear then. 

 

my guess is may 22. some smaller Teams complaining, because they havent trained full Team size yet. Problem are some other Dates. Cup semi final and final are also up. Maybe that has to take Place in july then. 

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23 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm not seeing data where the cases or deaths per day are rising in the United States as a whole.

According to the chart on your link, it appears to me they've plateaued under the "daily new cases" and "daily new deaths" charts.  The rolling 7 day average of both cases an deaths has been declining every day since April 24th.

This is in alignment with the CDC data.

The validity of the data may be in question with the all of the independent variables including amount and quality of testing, every state carries different data, and with 43 states in some partial state of reopening very recently up to this weekend may be subject to change, but these per day numbers are decreasing, not increasing.

 

It definitely depends on who you are asking. Many scientists are saying that death rates are waaaaaaay underreported and also that if states are opened too quickly it's going to be a total nightmare.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

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Just now, TennisDude said:

It definitely depends on who you are asking. Many scientists are saying that death rates are waaaaaaay underreported and also that if states are opened too quickly it's going to be a total nightmare.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

Ok, but as the authors of the article note, "it's likely a mix of both."

AND according to the CDC, deaths from ALL causes have been declining week over week since the week of April 11th.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So, regardless of the flaws with aggregating this data, I don't see any sources which are showing us "coronavirus deaths per day are rising" on the whole for the country.  It appears to me the opposite is true.  Whether this trend will continue is anyone's guess now.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Mr.Positive, you need to be more positive.

 

I'm also reacting off of a poll that said MLB fans would NOT attend games at a 77% clip until an official vaccine was released (the earliest reported now would be at the end of the year). So will the games be attendance-less for the entire season? [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Complaint about moderation removed.

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