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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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OK, then I don't see how you get from:

2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Considering there’s already countless reports of states skewing cases and deaths to be higher the answer is no. 

to:

32 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Oh there is no doubt that the total amount reported is less than actual cases.

 

while also acknowledging that there are states that are juking the stats in the other direction.

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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

OK, then I don't see how you get from:

to:

 

while also acknowledging that there are states that are juking the stats in the other direction.

The particular post I was replying to questioned whether the Trump administration was skewing statistics. The second quote has nothing to do with skewing cases. It's the reality that we have only tested toughly 0.03% of the population. When you test such a small amount of people there is zero doubt that the actual cases out there will be higher (again confirmed by antibody testing). 

Right, there are STATES juking stats in both directions to fit their agenda not the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. Especially considering he told them to basically call their own shots multiple times. So I don't understand trying to find some "gotcha!" contradictions when it's clear there isn't any. 

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OK.  Really not going for a gotcha at all, just trying to follow the logic.  You answered the question "do you believe the numbers, or is Trump lying" with a "no", which made it unclear whether you were saying "no, I do not believe the numbers" or "no, I don't believe Trump is lying".

Either way, the fact that states might be juking the stats doesn't really have any bearing on whether the feds are, and there's been plenty of evidence of career civil servants reporting bad news up the chain and having it spiked by senior leadership.  Not saying Trump is leading it, or that it's to further his electoral campaign, but clearly you can see that the feds aren't exempt from the compulsion to downplay or even suppress bad news, right?

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30 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

OK.  Really not going for a gotcha at all, just trying to follow the logic.  You answered the question "do you believe the numbers, or is Trump lying" with a "no", which made it unclear whether you were saying "no, I do not believe the numbers" or "no, I don't believe Trump is lying".

Either way, the fact that states might be juking the stats doesn't really have any bearing on whether the feds are, and there's been plenty of evidence of career civil servants reporting bad news up the chain and having it spiked by senior leadership.  Not saying Trump is leading it, or that it's to further his electoral campaign, but clearly you can see that the feds aren't exempt from the compulsion to downplay or even suppress bad news, right?

Think we are gonna get a wake up call today. Look at the spike in cases in Illinois from yesterday to today (1266 to 4014, deaths about 3x higher as well). How anyone can think these numbers are being reporting correctly day to day when we consistently see spikes mid week out of nowhere is beyond me. 20k cases today with 10 states fully unreported. Statistically, it’s impossible to open during a pandemic and have numbers fall. Unless there is a massive lag on reporting such as Georgia currently. I think more states are adopting that method to make is seem they are good day to day and hoping nobody looks back at the numbers in a week. Anyone who does now looks like fake news because everyone has already reported X number of cases and deaths. 

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Posted (edited)

Working class Americans are ready to get back to work and or, reopen their businesses, that's clear nation wide, and those in the lesser hit regions of America should be able to, but people need to follow safety guidelines if we're to get past this crisis, that is, unless you believe that it's not necessary, if so, then you have to admit that we need to open things up nation wide now and get people back to work, but that might not be what a particular party might want...

I see thing as, Red States maybe skewing numbers to the low side, wanting to open up under set guidelines for safety,  getting their citizens off of unemployment, and back to work, which the citizens want, which in turn would lead to lightening the burden from Federal funding, States are receiving billions from the feds for unemployment since a lot of states reserves are depleted, whereas Blue run States are skewing the numbers to the high side so they won't lose their Federal funding while preaching to remain shut down due to those high numbers, . Who to believe?..neither?

[...]

 

Edited by tonycpsu
Sorry, this got *way* too off topic and political.
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8 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Working class Americans are ready to get back to work and or, reopen their businesses, that's clear nation wide, and those in the lesser hit regions of America should be able to, but people need to follow safety guidelines if we're to get past this crisis, that is, unless you believe that it's not necessary, if so, then you have to admit that we need to open things up nation wide now and get people back to work, but that might not be what a particular party might want...

I see thing as, Red States maybe skewing numbers to the low side, wanting to open up under set guidelines for safety,  getting their citizens off of unemployment, and back to work, which the citizens want, which in turn would lead to lightening the burden from Federal funding, States are receiving billions from the feds for unemployment since a lot of states reserves are depleted, whereas Blue run States are skewing the numbers to the high side so they won't lose their Federal funding while preaching to remain shut down due to those high numbers, . Who to believe?..neither?

[...]

 

It’s more blue states all have been testing at a higher amount, therefore have more confirmed cases. Most blue states also have major metropolitan areas that would naturally get hit with this harder. Rural red states aren’t going to see their spikes until everyone starts just getting together again. Even in Washington people are still, to this day, throwing parties with friends because they don’t see this as a big deal. Someone I know from high school just had about fifty friends over for a housewarming party. That’s despite a stay at home order. 

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10 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

...Who to believe?..neither?

[...]

 

Why would you not believe medical experts who have been working in their field for decades?

 

The most frustrating thing for me is on one side you have well trained medical professionals saying one thing, and people who lack the same credentials on the other side saying something else. And people just shrug their shoulders and say "Eh, there's no way of knowing who is telling the truth, so I'll just ignore everything."

 

Help me understand your perspective on why people like Fauci should be ignored.

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40 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why would you not believe medical experts who have been working in their field for decades?

 

The most frustrating thing for me is on one side you have well trained medical professionals saying one thing, and people who lack the same credentials on the other side saying something else. And people just shrug their shoulders and say "Eh, there's no way of knowing who is telling the truth, so I'll just ignore everything."

 

Help me understand your perspective on why people like Fauci should be ignored.

At one point someone was quoting a radiologist about how we need to open up right now. Over Fauci. 

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51 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

It’s more blue states all have been testing at a higher amount, therefore have more confirmed cases. Most blue states also have major metropolitan areas that would naturally get hit with this harder. Rural red states aren’t going to see their spikes until everyone starts just getting together again. Even in Washington people are still, to this day, throwing parties with friends because they don’t see this as a big deal. Someone I know from high school just had about fifty friends over for a housewarming party. That’s despite a stay at home order. 

You see the new news today on Wuhan China? 

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why would you not believe medical experts who have been working in their field for decades?

 

The most frustrating thing for me is on one side you have well trained medical professionals saying one thing, and people who lack the same credentials on the other side saying something else. And people just shrug their shoulders and say "Eh, there's no way of knowing who is telling the truth, so I'll just ignore everything."

 

Help me understand your perspective on why people like Fauci should be ignored.

Not ignored, but understood in the context that he's a flawed, self-interested human being like everybody else.  It's incredibly dangerous to just pick one expert and just believe them because you like the cut of their jib.  It's disingenuous to pretend you can't find find "well trained medical professionals" with equal credentials to Fauci saying things that contradict him.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why would you not believe medical experts who have been working in their field for decades?

 

The most frustrating thing for me is on one side you have well trained medical professionals saying one thing, and people who lack the same credentials on the other side saying something else. And people just shrug their shoulders and say "Eh, there's no way of knowing who is telling the truth, so I'll just ignore everything."

 

Help me understand your perspective on why people like Fauci should be ignored.

There's a question mark after that  word, 'Neither"..with that, I was inferring that it's an individual choice as to who to believe. Me? I'm a high risk person, 60yrs old, copd, both lungs having collapsed, issues from my service time...yada yada yada.. so I suit up hazmat style every time I go out. I'm not vain enough to believe that I know more than experts, nor am I naive enough to believe everything posted on facebook, twitter or any other forum where everyone thinks they're an expert on any given subject, I mean, just read this entire thread from day 1, and you'll get what I mean here....... Part of that post that was censored included a part that stated what I see in my Walmart store, less than 50% of shoppers and store clerks not wearing any protection, That's pretty much on topic, no?  but yet, it's gone....another part that was censored that I scratched my head at was what Newsom is doing to Counties here that are going against his orders about staying shut down, and his withholding state funding due to them opening, are we not allowed to discuss going-ons due to the covid pandemic? ..I get why some was censored, I did mention that it most likely would, but some parts that were, were not out of bounds, other posts were allowed that were similar in being political, 1 such was that Republicans were the majority of the anti-vacination crowd, but whatever, mods do do a decent job of monitoring these threads, I'll give the mods credit where due, especially knowing some of their stances politically.. but some times, I scratch my head, then I tell myself that some things slip through the cracks so to speak...we are all humans afterall..

Edited by FISH ON
thought quoted member was someone else..my bad
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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why would you not believe medical experts who have been working in their field for decades?

The most frustrating thing for me is on one side you have well trained medical professionals saying one thing, and people who lack the same credentials on the other side saying something else. And people just shrug their shoulders and say "Eh, there's no way of knowing who is telling the truth, so I'll just ignore everything."

Help me understand your perspective on why people like Fauci should be ignored.

Exactly.  There are not two political sides giving you two different spins.  You have science simply reporting facts as they come in.  Then there are people who form a group and attack the facts.

3 minutes ago, Nefarious Industrialist said:

Not ignored, but understood in the context that he's a flawed, self-interested human being like everybody else.  It's incredibly dangerous to just pick one expert and just believe them because you like the cut of their jib.  It's disingenuous to pretend you can't find find "well trained medical professionals" with equal credentials to Fauci saying things that contradict him.

Cut of his jib?  Hahahaha!  What "experts" in Fauci's league of expertise and "equal credentials" say otherwise?

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He's not the end all be all expert, he's made mistakes himself...just sayin.

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9 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

He's not the end all be all expert, he's made mistakes himself...just sayin.

Fauci is literally the end all be all expert on infectious diseases in the USA. If you aren’t believing the person literally in charge of exactly what’s happening, why do you even have him in charge? You don’t micromanage someone you put in charge of something you have absolutely no clue about. 

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56 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

He's not the end all be all expert, he's made mistakes himself...just sayin.

Who should we getting our advice from? Rand Paul ? 

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Either way, the fact that states might be juking the stats doesn't really have any bearing on whether the feds are, and there's been plenty of evidence of career civil servants reporting bad news up the chain and having it spiked by senior leadership.  Not saying Trump is leading it, or that it's to further his electoral campaign, but clearly you can see that the feds aren't exempt from the compulsion to downplay or even suppress bad news, right?


To illustrate the sort of thing I'm talking about here, check out this breaking story from NBC News:

Quote

Unreleased White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in heartland communities

Coronavirus infection rates are spiking to new highs in several metropolitan areas and smaller communities across the country, according to undisclosed data the White House's pandemic task force is using to track rates of infection, which was obtained by NBC News.

The data in a May 7 coronavirus task force report are at odds with President Donald Trump's declaration Monday that "all throughout the country, the numbers are coming down rapidly."

The 10 top areas recorded surges of 72.4 percent or greater over a seven-day period compared to the previous week, according to a set of tables produced for the task force by its data and analytics unit. They include Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and — atop the list, with a 650 percent increase — Central City, Kentucky.

 

This is the kind of thing I was talking about the other day where when you take the declining NYC numbers out, the national trend is extremely worrisome.  And it's not like there has been a shortage of detailed stories about the rising infection rates in suburban and rural areas. But when the administration is suppressing information from career civil servants and downplaying the rising tide almost everywhere that's not NYC, well, one may justifiably come away with the impression that they're being played.

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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:


To illustrate the sort of thing I'm talking about here, check out this breaking story from NBC News:

 

This is the kind of thing I was talking about the other day where when you take the declining NYC numbers out, the national trend is extremely worrisome.  And it's not like there has been a shortage of detailed stories about the rising infection rates in suburban and rural areas. But when the administration is suppressing information from career civil servants and downplaying the rising tide almost everywhere that's not NYC, well, one may justifiably come away with the impression that they're being played.

The hard part with these types of areas is that if multiple communities are served by one hospital.  The urban areas have prepped with more ancillary facilities and testing sites.  I feel like a lot of rural communities thought they were insulated so maybe they didn't have the same level of concern, or they don't have the resources to ramp up if they wanted to.  Kinda like the Smithfield thing, or Doughtery County here in GA.

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It's convenient to say "just listen to the experts" when the "experts" are saying what you want to hear. Unfortunately, there's no way to tell if Fauci is the Mike Trout of infectious diseases or the Brett Gardner.  As far as I can tell, there are no objective numbers - in medicine your reputation seems mostly based on impressing the right people.  I could be wrong, though; let me know.  The entire situation is so politicized - on both sides - there's no reason to trust any "expert" either side puts forth.  We all have to judge for ourselves based on the best information we have.  But for ordinary schmucks like me, who've never heard of any of them, I think it's natural there's a skepticism, especially when you're being commanded - not asked - to set your life aside because this expert says you must.  And the burden isn't on the expert to actually prove you're killing people by simply living your life; the burden is on *you* to somehow prove you're not.  Combined with the constant shifting of the goalposts, it's fair to wonder if these "experts" aren't simply tools, no matter their supposed credentials.

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2 minutes ago, Nefarious Industrialist said:

It's convenient to say "just listen to the experts" when the "experts" are saying what you want to hear. Unfortunately, there's no way to tell if Fauci is the Mike Trout of infectious diseases or the Brett Gardner.  As far as I can tell, there are no objective numbers - in medicine your reputation seems mostly based on impressing the right people.  I could be wrong, though; let me know.  The entire situation is so politicized - on both sides - there's no reason to trust any "expert" either side puts forth.  We all have to judge for ourselves based on the best information we have.  But for ordinary schmucks like me, who've never heard of any of them, I think it's natural there's a skepticism, especially when you're being commanded - not asked - to set your life aside because this expert says you must.  And the burden isn't on the expert to actually prove you're killing people by simply living your life; the burden is on *you* to somehow prove you're not.  Combined with the constant shifting of the goalposts, it's fair to wonder if these "experts" aren't simply tools, no matter their supposed credentials.

Well, you could always consult another doctor for a second opinion.

It seems to me most of the ones I've met are in agreement of how best to protect yourself and others.

In general, I think it's wise to get opinions from multiple people with disparate points of view, but I also tend to think it's wise to trust subject matter experts as opposed to "ordinary schmucks" because people who have put years of study into a subject matter are generally better at understanding the history of a thing and predicting its outcome.

I'd suggest checking out Blink by Malcom Gladwell if you haven't read it.  There are a number of good examples in there of why expertise is valuable. 

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Well, you could always consult another doctor for a second opinion.

It seems to me most of the ones I've met are in agreement of how best to protect yourself and others.

In general, I think it's wise to get opinions from multiple people with disparate points of view, but I also tend to think it's wise to trust subject matter experts as opposed to "ordinary schmucks" because people who have put years of study into a subject matter are generally better at understanding the history of a thing and predicting its outcome.

I'd suggest checking out Blink by Malcom Gladwell if you haven't read it.  There are a number of good examples in there of why expertise is valuable. 

I mean, sure, under normal circumstances.  But like I said, in this particular situation there are compelling reasons to question not just the expertise but the motivation. I’m sorry, but it’s true. The other issue in this instance is that from a medical point of view, it’s easy to dictate that everyone just hide inside indefinitely. As we’re finding out, that has dire consequences that aren’t necessarily addressed by a doctor of infectious diseases.  So no matter what medical expert you consult, you still need to resolve the practicalities of a sustainable solution, which I don’t know that any of them are accustomed to taking into account.  The whole thing is very complicated, and it can’t be a one-sided “just listen to the experts” conversation.

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4 minutes ago, Nefarious Industrialist said:

I mean, sure, under normal circumstances.  But like I said, in this particular situation there are compelling reasons to question not just the expertise but the motivation. I’m sorry, but it’s true. The other issue in this instance is that from a medical point of view, it’s easy to dictate that everyone just hide inside indefinitely. As we’re finding out, that has dire consequences that aren’t necessarily addressed by a doctor of infectious diseases.  So no matter what medical expert you consult, you still need to resolve the practicalities of a sustainable solution, which I don’t know that any of them are accustomed to taking into account.  The whole thing is very complicated, and it can’t be a one-sided “just listen to the experts” conversation.

I don't agree.

Medical professionals that I've heard are all saying similar things.

Some politicians and economists have certain opinions that economic results will be more deleterious to us than the health risks posed, but I haven't heard any medical professionals suggest "this is over, you can feel ok now."

You need to understand that if you go to work, go out to eat, go to the movies, whatever, you're making a choice.  And you should still try to protect yourself.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nefarious Industrialist said:

I mean, sure, under normal circumstances.  But like I said, in this particular situation there are compelling reasons to question not just the expertise but the motivation.

Scientists are scientist.  They make judgements on facts.  Politicians are politicians.  They do not always make judgements on facts.  Enough said.

Dr Fauci is head of the CDC. There are more people than him at the CDC.  Thousands more.  He represents their findings.  He is not sitting alone in his closet starring into a crystal ball or consulting his magic 8 ball for that matter.  Other scientists and medical personal in various hospitals and universities and research facilities all agree on these basics too.  They have no ax to grind. 

So what the hell are those "compelling reasons" to question their "motivation" again?  Is there some conspiracy site that says Falci is in league with Bill Gates to quarantine people for no reason other than to aid and abet an alien invasion of baseball player snatchers who want to draft Mike Trout for their Omicron Persei 8 (shout out to Futurama) planetary team or something?  Because honestly why would scientists have ulterior motivations?  Or is saving lives an ulterior motivation these days?

All this anti-science stuff these days is right up their with the old church wanting Galileo to recant.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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33 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Dr Fauci is head of the CDC. There are more people than him at the CDC. 

 

NIAID, actually, within the NIH. CDC has been sidelined during this for being too "alarmist". 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Nefarious Industrialist said:

It's convenient to say "just listen to the experts" when the "experts" are saying what you want to hear. The entire situation is so politicized - on both sides - there's no reason to trust any "expert" either side puts forth.  We all have to judge for ourselves based on the best information we have.  But for ordinary schmucks like me, who've never heard of any of them, I think it's natural there's a skepticism, especially when you're being commanded - not asked - to set your life aside because this expert says you must...

What is it you think I *want* to hear? Because experts are saying lots of people are drying and lots more people are going to die if we refuse to take basic precautions. What is it about that that makes you feel it's easy? 

 

This is part of what I really cannot wrap my head around. Again, there are medical professionals who work and study this exact thing we're dealing with. The majority of them are mostly saying the same thing (with some minor disagreements over minor specifics).

 

And yet...we're supposed to look at "both sides" with some degree of equal credibility instead of laughing them out of the room. It's utter insanity. It all reminds me of that famous Asimov quote, "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"

Seriously, when did we get to the point that experts in their field became an insult or a bad thing? The idea that each of us can pour over all the data and all the information and judge things for ourselves is something I find gobsmackingly insulting. Like, sure, doctors and other healthcare professionals have spent years, if not decades, doing this very thing. How much time could any of us have possibly spent going through all the information to be taken as a serious source on par with Fauci or other people who have been spending their career in this subject? Hell, how many of us are even working in healthcare and going to work to directly deal with this stuff on a daily basis?

Edited by AnonymousRob
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ESPECIALLY when you consider one of the biggest - arguably *the* biggest - opponent to medical opinions is Trump. A man who as of a month ago had averaged 15 lies or misleading statements every single day for the past 1,170 days.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/14/president-trump-made-18000-false-or-misleading-claims-1170-days/

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