bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/13/854873605/fauci-says-u-s-death-toll-is-likely-higher-other-covid-stats-need-adjusting-too

No doubt death counts are being politicized unfortunately.  Nothing we can do right now if counts are being manipulated to fit a narrative.

Devastating no matter what the true death count due to Covid ends up being. 

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2 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Not sure what the tinfoil hat in reference to, but I think most of this is common knowledge. Bailout money has gone to or they are working on getting it for: cruise lines that operate under foreign flags to avoid taxes, airlines, chain restaurants, casinos (!), lobbyists (!!) and many others. IDK how you could be unaware of this, but...

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-the-coronavirus-bailout-repeats-2008s-mistakes-huge-corporate-payoffs-with-little-accountability 

Senate votes to let FBI to seize web history without a warrant:

https://gizmodo.com/heres-who-just-voted-to-let-the-f-b-i-seize-your-searc-1843445032

Canadians have a streamlined process to get $2,000 a month for 4 months if out of work. (I still haven't gotten a cent. Nor has my mom, a retired teacher).

https://www.vicnews.com/news/trudeau-unveils-new-2000-per-month-benefit-to-streamline-covid-19-aid/

Every other rich country and some 3rd world countries provide HC for all. Also common knowledge.  We pay far more, including the taxes they pay. Medical debt is the leading cause of bankruptcy and corona hospitalization costs tens of thousands. I think like 80% of people know this, but...

spacer.png

 

I guess the "conspiracy" is that those who spend billions a year on lobbying, campaign contributions, speaking fees, etc. get a return on investment?

As a past casino worker you are vastly overestimating how many casinos are even going to be reopening. Two here been open since the 70s both just announced they aren’t reopening. Since they legally have to have surveillance and a security guard posted in their buildings at all times, they have been paying those people with zero money coming in. They even had to continue to pay utilities to keep the lights and cameras on 24/7. Casinos are expensive to operate when you are only sending money out. 

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Yeah, I've been in the gambling biz for 15 years myself.  Most of my friends too. 

 

We've been talking about it and I think destination casinos like here in vegas are screwed.  Macau has done dismal numbers since opening.  

Local casinos should bounce back imo because their business is driven by addiction.  Maybe this or that company goes bankrupt but there will be casinos whenever things become semi normal. I'm sure you've seen first hand how people dump every nickle they have again and again. How welfare day sees a spike in action. 

 

I was just saying casinos got bailout money, or at least it was in discussion. To me, that's like bailing out meth dealers.  

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6 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Or Tony, and hear me out here, different states are reporting differently, and many experts debate whether we are underreporting or overreporting. And often, there’s a political agenda behind it. That’s just the facts.


Nothing I said was intended to be construed as "no fudging of the numbers is occurring in the direction of more deaths".  My problem is that the evidence on one side is far stronger for undercounting than overcounting, even if we assume that the worst case scenario alleged by either side is true and make some very conservative assumptions about unknowns.

Consider: from your own link, as of when it was published, around 10% of the deaths CDC was counting were in the "probable but not confirmed" category (~5,800 of the total of 49,000 at the time).  Obviously, even by dumb luck, some portion of those 5,800 would be actual COVID deaths, and since these are doctors and other trained medical professionals making the determination, I think we can assume they're right at least as often as they're wrong.  But, let's say for the sake of argument that every one of those "probables" is actually someone slipping on a banana peel or dying of a heart attack, but is being counted in the CDC totals by nefarious governors.

Meanwhile, the CDC estimates that the number of excess deaths unaccounted for by COVID in either the confirmed or the probable totals since the beginning of February is somewhere in the range of 21k to 40k:

image.thumb.png.fd11a9a261e5799f17bfdc5f9c0f2034.png

So, even taking the lowest value of this predicted range, we have roughly four times as many unexplained (and possibly undercounted COVID) deaths as the total number of probables counted in the CDC data.  Remember that these are *excess* deaths, meaning other causes of death are already controlled for, and there's no explanation for the gap.  To show that the amount of overcounting is as bad a problem as the amonut of undercounting, you'd have to assume that 75% of these unexplained deaths -- some 30k Americans -- are dying of something else above expected levels, and nobody is noticing.  Go ahead and make that case if you like, but it seems like a stretch to me.

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On 4/20/2020 at 12:33 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

 

Yeah, as a history teacher (American History) I learned some things...Great post

 

On 4/19/2020 at 9:34 PM, MrBrett said:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/coronavirus-black-plague-fall-of-rome-973211/

Found this an interesting read from the perspective of an European historian. Not all doom and gloom as the title suggests. 

Decided to bump for any who might have missed. Enjoyed reading again. 

Still hoping our leaders learn something from this and make the necessary changes and commitments to be better prepared if something similar happens in the near future. Don't let this crisis go to waste.

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4 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

Not sure what the tinfoil hat in reference to, but I think most of this is common knowledge. Bailout money has gone to or they are working on getting it for: cruise lines that operate under foreign flags to avoid taxes, airlines, chain restaurants, casinos (!), lobbyists (!!) and many others. IDK how you could be unaware of this, but...

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-the-coronavirus-bailout-repeats-2008s-mistakes-huge-corporate-payoffs-with-little-accountability 

Senate votes to let FBI to seize web history without a warrant:

https://gizmodo.com/heres-who-just-voted-to-let-the-f-b-i-seize-your-searc-1843445032

Canadians have a streamlined process to get $2,000 a month for 4 months if out of work. (I still haven't gotten a cent. Nor has my mom, a retired teacher).

https://www.vicnews.com/news/trudeau-unveils-new-2000-per-month-benefit-to-streamline-covid-19-aid/

Every other rich country and some 3rd world countries provide HC for all. Also common knowledge.  We pay far more, including the taxes they pay. Medical debt is the leading cause of bankruptcy and corona hospitalization costs tens of thousands. I think like 80% of people know this, but...

spacer.png

 

I guess the "conspiracy" is that those who spend billions a year on lobbying, campaign contributions, speaking fees, etc. get a return on investment?

Canada 2000 a month is about 1500us...we are giving $600 per week until July 31 for $2400 a month plus state unemployment rate. All Americans get free covid care. California has more people than Canada and no universal healthcare and has a lower death rate per capita than Canada. Your state sucks if they haven’t paid your unemployment yet
 

 

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:


Nothing I said was intended to be construed as "no fudging of the numbers is occurring in the direction of more deaths".  My problem is that the evidence on one side is far stronger for undercounting than overcounting, even if we assume that the worst case scenario alleged by either side is true and make some very conservative assumptions about unknowns.

Consider: from your own link, as of when it was published, around 10% of the deaths CDC was counting were in the "probable but not confirmed" category (~5,800 of the total of 49,000 at the time).  Obviously, even by dumb luck, some portion of those 5,800 would be actual COVID deaths, and since these are doctors and other trained medical professionals making the determination, I think we can assume they're right at least as often as they're wrong.  But, let's say for the sake of argument that every one of those "probables" is actually someone slipping on a banana peel or dying of a heart attack, but is being counted in the CDC totals by nefarious governors.

Meanwhile, the CDC estimates that the number of excess deaths unaccounted for by COVID in either the confirmed or the probable totals since the beginning of February is somewhere in the range of 21k to 40k:

image.thumb.png.fd11a9a261e5799f17bfdc5f9c0f2034.png

So, even taking the lowest value of this predicted range, we have roughly four times as many unexplained (and possibly undercounted COVID) deaths as the total number of probables counted in the CDC data.  Remember that these are *excess* deaths, meaning other causes of death are already controlled for, and there's no explanation for the gap.  To show that the amount of overcounting is as bad a problem as the amonut of undercounting, you'd have to assume that 75% of these unexplained deaths -- some 30k Americans -- are dying of something else above expected levels, and nobody is noticing.  Go ahead and make that case if you like, but it seems like a stretch to me.

Don’t forget the two major causes of deaths, heart disease and cancer, could be taking place in homes where people are not able to access normal care due to pandemic. Not sure if these are considered covid comorbidities Or how they would count these deaths.

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Canada 2000 a month is about 1500us...we are giving $600 per week until July 31 for $2400 a month plus state unemployment rate. All Americans get free covid care. California has more people than Canada and no universal healthcare and has a lower death rate per capita than Canada. Your state sucks if they haven’t paid your unemployment yet
 

 

 

I can't really get unemployment, but good points, for the most part.  

I didn't know all covid care was free.  That's good to know, since I don't have insurance.  Might as well get it now, or I'm missing a lot of value!

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

Canada 2000 a month is about 1500us...we are giving $600 per week until July 31 for $2400 a month plus state unemployment rate. All Americans get free covid care. California has more people than Canada and no universal healthcare and has a lower death rate per capita than Canada. Your state sucks if they haven’t paid your unemployment yet
 

 

State of Maine...Wife applied on March 13, we haven't seen a penny

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3 hours ago, B&F said:

I hope so, but at this point i have heard this story a few times. This being the most convincing, though. Wait and see approach for me, but, hoping for the best. Thanks for sharing. I was unaware of this.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Canada 2000 a month is about 1500us...we are giving $600 per week until July 31 for $2400 a month plus state unemployment rate. All Americans get free covid care. California has more people than Canada and no universal healthcare and has a lower death rate per capita than Canada. Your state sucks if they haven’t paid your unemployment yet

No they don't.  Some states said testing should be for free though I don't know if it is or if it is in some states and not others.  Trump had said it should be free but that was just talk and no action at his federal level. But even that was just for the testing.  Not for hospitalizations.

Meanwhile hospital stays can run over $50,000 to $100,000 I've heard for patients ending up in intensive care.  Then it depends on your health care provider -- if you have one -- and what they will pay for and what they will stick you with. 

That is IF you have a health care provider which many don't have to start with and which, by the way, you don't have it you were laid off unless your company agrees to keep you on their plan for a few months after laying you off.  Only big companies can afford to do that and not all of them are doing it. 

The US is the only modern industrial state that ties health care in with an employer health care plan.  I saw a thing on PBS that explained how this all came about.  This weird construct started apparently during WWII when countless numbers of men were gone off to the war and there wasn't enough Rosie the Riveters to go around to cover all the massive industrial war supply production.  Companies started offering "perks" to recruit workers and health care packages were the most popular. 

After the war the US didn't upgrade to a universal health care system and we are stuck with this weird set-up to this day.  So now countless thousands of hospitalized covid-19 patients or their immediate families (if the patient died) will face massive bills that will tank that family for generations to come.  Meanwhile Trump is still actively trying to destroy the last remnants of Obamacare right now in the middle of the pandemic so more people will be destroyed as well.  Because once everything is taken away from you it is near impossible to crawl out of that massive hole.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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To add to what @The Big Bat Theory said,  a bunch of Americans are due for some surprise bills soon.  A lot of providers will not be covering covid tests,  and a lot of the uninsured with them,  will probably be getting screwed here.  

Once we all get to go outside again,  the billing fight will be upon us.  Yippee 

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

No they don't.  Some states said testing should be for free though I don't know if it is or if it is in some states and not others.  Trump had said it should be free but that was just talk and no action at his federal level. But even that was just for the testing.  Not for hospitalizations.

Meanwhile hospital stays can run over $50,000 to $100,000 I've heard for patients ending up in intensive care.  Then it depends on your health care provider -- if you have one -- and what they will pay for and what they will stick you with. 

That is IF you have a health care provider which many don't have to start with and which, by the way, you don't have it you were laid off unless your company agrees to keep you on their plan for a few months after laying you off.  Only big companies can afford to do that and not all of them are doing it. 

The US is the only modern industrial state that ties health care in with an employer health care plan.  I saw a thing on PBS that explained how this all came about.  This weird construct started apparently during WWII when countless numbers of men were gone off to the war and there wasn't enough Rosie the Riveters to go around to cover all the massive industrial war supply production.  Companies started offering "perks" to recruit workers and health care packages were the most popular. 

After the war the US didn't upgrade to a universal health care system and we are stuck with this weird set-up to this day.  So now countless thousands of hospitalized covid-19 patients or their immediate families (if the patient died) will face massive bills that will tank that family for generations to come.  Meanwhile Trump is still actively trying to destroy the last remnants of Obamacare right now in the middle of the pandemic so more people will be destroyed as well.  Because once everything is taken away from you it is near impossible to crawl out of that massive hole.

The cares act was supposed to reimburse healthcare providers at Medicare numbers. Any provider accepting money from the cares act must not collect.  This is kinda close to a federal single-payer system ( insurance companies get money up front) ,  Medicare for all, even briefly for covid, is trial run at universal for a specific issue. Of course, Greed, waste, fraud and abuse permeates almost every aspect of American society. 

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2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

To add to what @The Big Bat Theory said,  a bunch of Americans are due for some surprise bills soon.  A lot of providers will not be covering covid tests,  and a lot of the uninsured with them,  will probably be getting screwed here.  

Once we all get to go outside again,  the billing fight will be upon us.  Yippee 

Cares act was supposed to reimburse patients if the providers took federal funding. I just assumed all did 

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Has anyone read some of these vitamin D studies ? Sounds like there's a potential link between those who get sick and vitamin D deficiency.

https://abc7.com/vitamin-d-and-coronavirus-sunshine-sun-role/6182232/

https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

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11 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Has anyone read some of these vitamin D studies ? Sounds like there's a potential link between those who get sick and vitamin D deficiency.

 

 

Should You Take A Vitamin D Supplement For COVID-19?Despite feverish headlines, the truth is far more complicated than you’ve been led to believe

TL;DR: If you want to take a Vitamin D supplement, go ahead -- it's probably not going to hurt -- but the reporting on these studies is irresponsible.

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12 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Has anyone read some of these vitamin D studies ? Sounds like there's a potential link between those who get sick and vitamin D deficiency.

https://abc7.com/vitamin-d-and-coronavirus-sunshine-sun-role/6182232/

https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-determines-severity-in-covid-19-researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/

I am speaking prior to reading the article, and i dont plan to read it either (i am over this Corona stuff lol, like everyone else).. but, i just gotta imagine people in countries like Brasil, or states like Florida arent lacking Vitamin D unless they are sitting inside 24 hours a day. Just does not make sense, unless ofcourse we as individuals are different to the point each person requires a different amount of vitamin D to be deemed 'healthy'

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Based on what I’ve learned on the internet I’ve taken up smoking, lying out in the sun all day, drinking several glasses of orange juice, and occasionally injecting myself with bleach. It’s clearly working as I’ve yet to be diagnosed with COVID-19.

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9 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

 

Should You Take A Vitamin D Supplement For COVID-19?Despite feverish headlines, the truth is far more complicated than you’ve been led to believe

TL;DR: If you want to take a Vitamin D supplement, go ahead -- it's probably not going to hurt -- but the reporting on these studies is irresponsible.

 

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

 

Should You Take A Vitamin D Supplement For COVID-19?Despite feverish headlines, the truth is far more complicated than you’ve been led to believe

TL;DR: If you want to take a Vitamin D supplement, go ahead -- it's probably not going to hurt -- but the reporting on these studies is irresponsible.

What specifically is irresponsible ? I don't see anyone touting it as a cure all. 

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@lolcopter : Yeah, that guy has some views I disagree with, but the analysis of the correlation possibly being there without there being a benefit to taking a supplement is sound.

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8 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

What specifically is irresponsible ? I don't see anyone touting it as a cure all. 

 

The source was quoted as saying ""We probably should be supplementing with to decrease our risk overall," said Cardillo.", whereas the studies don't show that.  Read the Medium piece, which explains why in great detail.

Responsible coverage would note the link between deficiency, explain that there are many confounding variables, and suggest further study is needed before determining whether there's a benefit.

(If it matters - I say this as someone who has taken Vitamin D on my doctor's advice for years, and hope that there *is* a link.)

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13 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Based on what I’ve learned on the internet I’ve taken up smoking, lying out in the sun all day, drinking several glasses of orange juice, and occasionally injecting myself with bleach. It’s clearly working as I’ve yet to be diagnosed with COVID-19.

 

Speaking of which, anyone heard from @jfazz23 lately?  We were supposed to get some secret inside info from his "sources" that were "doctors and scientists" who had great news about hydroxychloroquine.

Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus ‘game changer’ increasingly linked to deaths

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