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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Texas' numbers seem to be skewed too.  Apparently 32 counties in the state aren't reporting anything. https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

This is a few weeks old but I think it gets to the gist of why some rural Texas counties would be reporting 0 cases.  Texas is geographically big ! People in rural areas don't want to drive an hour or two to get tested. That and these are sparsely populated areas so it's not going to spread fast.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/24/texas-counties-no-coronavirus/

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

This is a few weeks old but I think it gets to the gist of why some rural Texas counties would be reporting 0 cases.  Texas is geographically big ! People in rural areas don't want to drive an hour or two to get tested. That and these are sparsely populated areas so it's not going to spread fast.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/24/texas-counties-no-coronavirus/

So you’re saying over 32 counties not one person has been tested? Because they aren’t reporting a thing. 

Edited by daynlokki

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

So you’re saying over 32 counties not one person has been tested? Because they aren’t reporting a thing. 

No, that's not what I'm saying. I said 32 counties aren't reporting positive cases and added some context as to why that might be. It doesn't mean "the numbers are skewed" or "not one person has been tested" in these counties (although I'd wager the latter is true in a few of them). You understand that some of these Texas counties reporting 0 cases have hundreds of people spread out over hundreds of square miles, right ? 

Edited by fletch44
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38 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

No, that's not what I'm saying. I said 32 counties aren't reporting positive cases and added some context as to why that might be. It doesn't mean "the numbers are skewed" or "not one person has been tested" in these counties (although I'd wager the latter is true in a few of them). You understand that some of these Texas counties reporting 0 cases have hundreds of people spread out over hundreds of square miles, right ? 

They aren’t just not reporting positive cases. They aren’t reporting ANYTHING. As in, based on their reports they have given exactly 0 tests in 32 counties. 

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47 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

They aren’t just not reporting positive cases. They aren’t reporting ANYTHING. As in, based on their reports they have given exactly 0 tests in 32 counties. 

Could be a combination of what was said about distance to testing along with distance to other people in general. This virus is not airborne, so it might just not be reaching areas that are not densely populated. I don’t think it’s so surprising that podunk counties in the middle of nowhere are minimally affected. And if they are getting tested, the results are probably being listed in the more densely populated counties that are testing. 

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12 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

They aren’t just not reporting positive cases. They aren’t reporting ANYTHING. As in, based on their reports they have given exactly 0 tests in 32 counties. 

Where are you looking ? I am looking in the raw data.

https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Goto "Cumulative Tests over Time by County"

I see 8 counties that have given 0 tests and they're all small counties ranging from a couple hundred people to a few thousand people. Again,I'm sure this is a byproduct of rural Texas rather than some nefarious plot by the state to skew the numbers. Who knows if some of these tiny counties like Loving (134 people) even have test facilities or if they're directed to a neighboring county. 

Irion
Jeff Davis
Kenedy
King
Loving
Roberts
Stonewall
Terrell

 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Where are you looking ? I am looking in the raw data.

https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Goto "Cumulative Tests over Time by County"

I see 8 counties that have given 0 tests and they're all small counties ranging from a couple hundred people to a few thousand people. Again,I'm sure this is a byproduct of rural Texas rather than some nefarious plot by the state to skew the numbers. Who knows if some of these tiny counties like Loving (134 people) even have test facilities or if they're directed to a neighboring county. 

Irion
Jeff Davis
Kenedy
King
Loving
Roberts
Stonewall
Terrell

 

I already posted my citation. It was the state ran site. Wouldn’t exactly be the first red state to report in a way to make them look like they are doing better than they are. *stares at Georgia*

Also, if your numbers are different, why is the state DSHS site off? It’s the one place state to state which should be correct in this. 

Edited by daynlokki

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53 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Could be a combination of what was said about distance to testing along with distance to other people in general. This virus is not airborne, so it might just not be reaching areas that are not densely populated. I don’t think it’s so surprising that podunk counties in the middle of nowhere are minimally affected. And if they are getting tested, the results are probably being listed in the more densely populated counties that are testing. 

It’s the DSHS site. They wouldn’t post numbers in a neighboring county unless the person sick was a resident of that county. At least that’s what the majority of states are doing. They have over 10% of all counties in Texas as completely reporting absolutely no testing done at all or any positive residents. I don’t see how that can be anything BUT undercounting and skewing numbers with how prevalent this has been. There is absolutely no way all those counties haven’t even tested a singular person. 

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Bickering over county-level results in Texas is kind of a derail at this point considering cases and deaths in Texas are increasing even with the state's official numbers, as everyone including the governor expected.  A handful of extra cases in counties with like 2 residents per square mile are not going to push the state-wide numbers much higher, and even if they did, they're committed to reopening in spite of the increasing cases and deaths.  What's going on in Georgia where the state-wide numbers are being juked is far more pernicious.

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29 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Bickering over county-level results in Texas is kind of a derail at this point considering cases and deaths in Texas are increasing even with the state's official numbers, as everyone including the governor expected.  A handful of extra cases in counties with like 2 residents per square mile are not going to push the state-wide numbers much higher, and even if they did, they're committed to reopening in spite of the increasing cases and deaths.  What's going on in Georgia where the state-wide numbers are being juked is far more pernicious.

It could very well be over a handful of cases in 32 of the 254 Texas counties that haven’t reported even one test. You think it’s not a big deal when 1/8th of Texas hasn’t reported one test? That seems like a pretty big deal. Their numbers are going off with that level of unreporting. 

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55 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I already posted my citation. It was the state ran site. Wouldn’t exactly be the first red state to report in a way to make them look like they are doing better than they are. *stares at Georgia*

Also, if your numbers are different, why is the state DSHS site off? It’s the one place state to state which should be correct in this. 

There are different charts in your link. The one where 32 counties are reporting 0 is for positive cases. There is a different chart for tests by county. You should be able to scroll over to it. The link I posted should just be the underlying data. This will be my last post as I agree with Tony that this is silly. 

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It's not one eighth of Texas just because it's one eighth of counties.  Land is irrelevant.

The point is the scale of the problem in Texas is already self-evident without worrying about counties where six ranchers live.

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43 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

It could very well be over a handful of cases in 32 of the 254 Texas counties that haven’t reported even one test. You think it’s not a big deal when 1/8th of Texas hasn’t reported one test? That seems like a pretty big deal. Their numbers are going off with that level of unreporting. 

 

Are you purposefully conflating 1/8 of counties with 1/8 of the population of Texas?  Chill with the cherry picking and moving goal posts.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Wouldn’t exactly be the first red state to report in a way to make them look like they are doing better than they are. *stares at Georgia* 

 

I'd need to see more evidence of this than rural counties dont cave a case.  But I dont disagree with the assertion as people in Flordia and Georgia have been calling this out for weeks.  But if you follow the money a lot of these govners are trying to sway the data to win the arguement which is sad.  This shouldn't be political and it should be more about getting it right rather than being right.

 

A huge part of being a good leader is to admit when you were wrong and have the ability to readily adjust the plan going forward.  Georgia and Flordia and Wisconsin they're all labaratories now.  We will see how their cases and deaths spike compared to states that kept a tighter lock down.  I have a feeling on the other side of this people are going to regret being so cavalier with reopening.

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Daily hospitalization rates in Texas appear to be relatively steady since early to mid April. Overall trend may be up slightly the last week or so, but not a dramatic spike. A slight increase could be expected with reopening at the beginning of the month. The increase in confirmed cases has a lot to do with the increase in testing. 
 

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx

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Just now, lolcopter said:

you have to remove the '.mobile' part from the URL for it to embed. Your tweet was from the 16th

So from the day before yesterday? Still relevant to the number of cases going up. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 11:17 PM, daynlokki said:

She seems like a straight arrow. 😂 

Jones had previously been pursuing a doctoral degree in geography at Florida State University, where she was enrolled from the fall of 2016 through the spring of 2018. While there, a romantic relationship between Jones and a former student turned contentious and she currently faces a criminal stalking charge that is awaiting trial next month.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242851256.html

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