bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

Recommended Posts

Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Lots more strawman in here. For the umpteenth time, I get the difference. But 12,000 is a lot. That’s all I’m talking about. Why not mitigate that risk as well? I’m not sure what you’re not getting. 

 

The size of the mitigation should, all else being equal, be proportional to the size of the danger. If the danger of COVID-19 is in the neighborhood of 34 times larger, then it demands our attention in a way that the seasonal flu doesn't. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

your numbers are also made up...when we dont know how many people have it.  my contention is we dont know....yours is "i know"

 

thats the difference

Just stop. You are quite obviously uninformed and just doubling down on your bad info. Do you not understand how modeling works? You don't need an exact count of every single infected person to reach a conclusion about what is likely to happen if nobody takes any precautions whatsoever. For someone so involved in fantasy baseball, I'd think projections and models are something you'd be able to wrap your head around, but alas...

Edited by cs3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lots more strawman in here. For the umpteenth time, I get the difference. But 12,000 is a lot. That’s all I’m talking about. Why not mitigate that risk as well? I’m not sure what you’re not getting. 

Ok, you keep mentioning the number 12,000 like it's a big deal. Its not. That's almost nothing. Barely more than a rounding error. 

For comparison, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed somewhere between 20 and 50 million people. Do you think just because it was strain of flu that people shouldn't have worried about it? 

Edited by cs3
reading this thread is pretty frustrating
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lots more strawman in here. For the umpteenth time, I get the difference. But 12,000 is a lot. That’s all I’m talking about. Why not mitigate that risk as well? I’m not sure what you’re not getting. 

 

We do a poor job with the flu many seasons and it could/should be better.  That doesn't mean this isn't different.  By slowing down the rate of infections so it's spread out over weeks/months instead of days we are saving lives merely by just having enough facilities for the sick. People are dying in parts of the world not just because of the disease, but because the system is overloaded to help those that have it.  Hospitals are literally choosing who dies and who doesn't.  The people who die from the flu each year are mostly a result of the disease and weak immune systems and not via lack hospital beds (from my understanding). 

  

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

And yet it kills 12,000+ every year. And we continue to cough and sneeze in NBA arenas and schools.

So I’m assuming you’re saying once we are comfortable with CV and know the data points, that it will only kill 12,000, it’ll be business as usual. 

We also have a Flu vaccine while not always effective it likely reduces the toll!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slavitt is the former chief of Medicare/Medicaid (under Obama)

If this is remotely accurate it means COVID will potentially be an issue of enormous severity through the summer and into Fall. Would MLB even try to have a season if they can't start until August?

I know this is worst case scenario stuff, but the blueprint on how to contain and squash this thing is Taiwan (early and aggressive quarantine/social distancing coupled with copious testing), and what we're doing in the US has been close to the opposite.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lots more strawman in here. For the umpteenth time, I get the difference. But 12,000 is a lot. That’s all I’m talking about. Why not mitigate that risk as well? I’m not sure what you’re not getting. 

Because to mitigate that risk we would put our country into a recession every year around flu season. The whole reason this is a big deal is because it’s up there with the Spanish flu. That didn’t kill 12,000. That killed 50m worldwide. They have to slow the spread. Once our hospital systems become overrun with this virus you reach the next breaking point. That’s when regression turns to depression, millions of jobs are lost after the intense drain on the economy and the people’s belief that the government is eroded to the point where things like a violent uprising can happen (slippery slope, yes. Worst case scenario). Next step is so many people needing hospital care that the hospitals have to start turning away the least likely to survive which supposedly is happening in Italy as we speak. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I guarantee you a MUCH larger number of people have been infected. That's the problem. You can't quarantine people unless you shut things down. And a mild inconvenience seems like a very small price to pay to err on the side of caution. 

Mild inconvenience? There's nothing mild about shutting everything down across the country. It's extreme.

And it's not a small price, this is coming with an enormous price tag and ramifications. 

People need to act like reasonable adults and not go into full blown panic mode shutting everything down. If you feel uncomfortable in a large crowd in a certain region, then you don't go to the game/large crowd, that's your decision. It's extreme overreaction fueled by media playing people's emotions like a fiddle. 

The problem is you have masses decision making and thinking with emotions and not logic.

Anyway, I'm sure I'll get plenty of responses again,  most of which are the same predictable things repeated across the TV screen. In this day and age where perceived intelligence is measured by who can agree with the TV the most.

This conversation (not you specifically but in general) will go in circles I get people are dug in so it is what it is. You know where I stand. I know where you stand... So go ahead with the same ole canned responses and snickers, all of which will be forgotten in several months time when you move on to the next thing you're told to.

On the bright side everyone, we all survived World War 3 just a few months ago, so it seems like we got a strong crowd of battle tested survivors. Hopefully we can be so lucky this time speak again in the coming months!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Mild inconvenience? There's nothing mild about shutting everything down across the country. It's extreme.

And it's not a small price, this is coming with an enormous price tag and ramifications. 

People need to act like reasonable adults and not go into full blown panic mode shutting everything down. If you feel uncomfortable in a large crowd in a certain region, then you don't go to the game/large crowd, that's your decision. It's extreme overreaction fueled by media playing people's emotions like a fiddle. 

The problem is you have masses decision making and thinking with emotions and not logic.

Anyway, I'm sure I'll get plenty of responses again,  most of which are the same predictable things repeated across the TV screen. In this day and age where perceived intelligence is measured by who can agree with the TV the most.

This conversation (not you specifically but in general) will go in circles I get people are dug in so it is what it is. You know where I stand. I know where you stand... So go ahead with the same ole canned responses and snickers, all of which will be forgotten in several months time when you move on to the next thing you're told to.

On the bright side everyone, we all survived World War 3 just a few months ago, so it seems like we got a strong crowd of battle tested survivors. Hopefully we can be so lucky this time speak again in the coming months!

 

You quite obviously do not understand how pandemics work. "Don't be a soy boy. Hang out in crowds if you want, no biggie." Maybe this isn't the virus that collapses society and wipes us out, but with this kind of thinking out there it's only a matter of time until one does. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m hopeful that with the measures taken we can flatten the curve enough not to overrun our capacity to take care of people and not run out of respirators and ICU beds during the peak. That’s really the focus. Hopefully there is some seasonality to the disease to help too. Then once it is clear the peak passes, we can start to think about  opening things back up. 
 

In that regard I would think baseball would be one of the first events to come back for several reasons- it’s mostly played outside, there isn’t much person to person contact for the participants, it’s facilities aren’t used for other competing purposes and it has cultural and historical significance that most sports and events don’t have. I think the rebirth of the baseball season will be a particularly poignant moment of the start of a return to normalcy. My current WAG is around June 1st. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, StevieStats said:

 

The problem is you have masses decision making and thinking with emotions and not logic.

That is not what is happening when it comes to industries shutting down.

No, nothing mild about doing this, it's a high cost. Just like nothing mild about reacting to a new strand of virus we have no vaccine for. When we can see the combination of its infection/kill rate is higher then normal. We know it has this higher incubation time. Making it very easy for younger people to unwitting transfer it to at risk people. You don't want hospitals overclocked. That is one of it's biggest dangers. Then people will start dying from various things because they did not get care/.

Edited by Slatykamora
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in the calm camp for sure, hell i'm not even canceling my trip to Los Cabos in 2 weeks (unless over this next week they start talking about Canada/Mexico Border closings)

 

but, the measures taken for crowds and sports i think was needed, the overall goal is to slow the spread so our healthcare system doesnt get overloaded which is the biggest risk we need to mitigate. a lot of people will get the virus IMO its just a matter of staggering the cases so it doesnt hit all at once

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The current public response is 100% logical. 

Effective flattening the curve strategy requires extreme measure BEFORE the virus infects the many millions it is capable of very quickly spreading to.

I am still hoping we get a partial baseball season in some form or another.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, duke of queens said:

Same boat. Ours is this Sat. Have a guy flying in who usually does remotely. Now he is having 2nd thoughts. No way Im changing and trying to pick another date for 14 guys. Just have to wait it out. Will have a lot of time to stare at the WW.

Same with us. Several coming in from OOS. Getting 14 guys with wives & kids to have a free weekend takes planning. Going to tough it out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

I am still hoping we get a partial baseball season in some form or another.

👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

From fantasy perspective, it could benefit the guys who start slow in the colder Mar/Apr weather.

 

Also, saw that Ohio is reporting an estimated 100,000+ COVID-19 cases. Closed all schools! And MD and NM also closed all schools in the state. 

 

And Trump will declare National Emergency. Welp.

.

Edited by Members_Only_76
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a friendly reminder...

 

We've been encouraged to take precautions (wash hands, cover coughs/sneezes, stay home, etc.), but I'd also encourage everyone to drink lots of water and healthy fluids. Keep flushing the body of toxins. Very important.

 

Stay healthy all.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

From fantasy perspective, it could benefit the guys who start slow in the colder Mar/Apr weather.

 

Also, saw that Ohio is reporting an estimated 100,000+ COVID-19 cases. Closed all schools! And MD and NM also closed all schools in the state. 

 

And Trump will declare National Emergency. Welp.

.

 

Puig.  Kluber (IDK if that's a weather thing, though).  Lopez.  A lot of Latin players.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, GamblorLA said:

 

Puig.  Kluber (IDK if that's a weather thing, though).  Lopez.  A lot of Latin players.

 

EE also comes to mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, StevieStats said:

I don't see why not. Like I said the hysteria is ridiculous and the only way COVID-19 affects the session is if MLB caves to the hysteria, which what they did. 

1400 sick out of 330 million and the entire country shuts down. 

Plenty of necessary actions and measures have been taken, but shutting down all major sports and any gathering is an absolute joke. 

People have lost their minds, it's pathetic.

  

So there are a few things being over looked with the logic of "1400 sick out of 330 million". 

 

1.  The test kits weren't ready there are far more than the 1400 that have been infected (I've been seeing reports of 2k+ 100% confirmed cases).  Many people have already contracted the virus and their immune system has already over came it.  But who did they pass it on to?  Just wait once all these test kits come through the number of infected will skyrocket on just being able to more efficiently administer testing for it.

 

2.  But most importantly virus infection grows exponentially.  Millions will be infected even with countries canceling their sports leagues and large events, that is a mathematical certainty.   But the ultimate goal is to buy time and slow the transmission rate as much as possible in the early stages.  So that we don't overwhelm our hospitals and healthcare system while giving us time to learn more about the situation.

 

Social distancing was the only way to slow the spread of the virus.  Italy who was poorly prepared and poorly planned is doing terrible with covid-19.  In under a months time went from 3 cases to 500 dead and the number has been continuing to grow exponentially.  In less than a week's time Italy's covid deaths have doubled from 500 deaths and are over 1,000 deaths.  Their healthcare system is maxed out which is why their death rate is higher than the global death rate.  America's healthcare system hasn't been maxed out yet which is part of the reason why the death rate here in America is slightly lower than globally.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've heard of several folks (I know first hand) who went in sick and asked for tests be are being denied. The US isn't testing for it enough, hopefully that gets fixed quickly.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I've heard of several folks (I know first hand) who went in sick and asked for tests be are being denied. The US isn't testing for it enough, hopefully that gets fixed quickly.

 

Yeah soon enough the number of cases is going to just triple over night once they get all these testing kits.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Taken from Wikipedia:

It is estimated that in the 2009 flu pandemic 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people, contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate. In August 2010, the World Health Organization declared the swine flu pandemic officially over.

I remember hearing about the Swine Flu but didn't spend a waking second brooding over it. It's odd we didn't get into a tizzy over this pandemic, which was worse than COVID-19 will likely end up being?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.