bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

  

Social distancing was the only way to slow the spread of the virus . . .  America's healthcare system hasn't been maxed out yet which is part of the reason why the death rate here in America is slightly lower than globally.

^^this.

For the statistical minded (any stat-heads around here?), a thorough primer on why cancelling games and staying home makes a significant difference, even for populations who are at less risk.

Considering they have $1.5T in the old Sovereign money bag to float the stock market yesterday, tossing $50-60B at paycheck to paycheck fry-cooks so they can stay home while their noses are running seems like a no brainer. Would pay for itself 50 times over. #BeSaintLouis

Edited by C_McGillicuddy
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[ Posts removed.  Once again: arguments here are to be limited to discussing the impact of the disease, not directly blaming specific politicians or political parties you think are at fault, or arguing about politics in general.]

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10 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah soon enough the number of cases is going to just triple over night once they get all these testing kits.

 

Not having enough test kits is disconcerting but the happy upshot of once we reach sufficient testing is that the mortality rate of the disease will likely drop. I'm sure the death toll is accurate (or close to accurate) but the number into which it is divided is the unknown. 

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OK keeping it fantasy relevant- injured players values are obviously augmented in general, but suspended players values depends on whether the missed games count toward their suspension. I would assume they don’t count toward their suspension but haven’t heard. 

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5 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

OK keeping it fantasy relevant- injured players values are obviously augmented in general, but suspended players values depends on whether the missed games count toward their suspension. I would assume they don’t count toward their suspension but haven’t heard. 

I would assume that too. No games played means no games to be suspended from.

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It is unlikely we are seeing baseball until May at the earliest.

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Welp it’s about to be a national emergency now.  Granted, I’m not exactly sure what this means in practices, but it FEELS more panicky 

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2 minutes ago, B&F said:

It is unlikely we are seeing baseball until May at the earliest.

 

I would take May at this point. My fear is we'll lose more of the season than just a month. 

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3 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

I would take May at this point. My fear is we'll lose more of the season than just a month. 

 

I'd sign on the dotted line for May, absolutely

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Baseball related question: 

* If they cancel games, do player salaries get pro-rated accordingly?

* If they cancel the season, then do all contracts get extended an extra year (since they essentially didn't play one of the contracted years?  Depends on question 1)

* Since the fantasy season is a lot shorter than the regular baseball season, is there a point where they play an abbreviated season that fantasy is just too short to be worth it (H2H of course)

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

Baseball related question: 

* If they cancel games, do player salaries get pro-rated accordingly?

* If they cancel the season, then do all contracts get extended an extra year (since they essentially didn't play one of the contracted years?  Depends on question 1)

* Since the fantasy season is a lot shorter than the regular baseball season, is there a point where they play an abbreviated season that fantasy is just too short to be worth it (H2H of course)

 

I can't answer your first two questions but I'm not the least bit concerned about the financial well-being of professional athletes lol. Common folk -- yes. 

As for your third question, I've played fantasy baseball with many who find the season too long. I like the marathon but its length is a common criticism. This group will get what they want with an abbreviated campaign. 

 

Edited by IceGoat

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48 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I've heard of several folks (I know first hand) who went in sick and asked for tests be are being denied. The US isn't testing for it enough, hopefully that gets fixed quickly.

 

Well there are a lot of hypochondriacs out there and we can't test everyone with the sniffles.

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15 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

I can't answer your first two questions but I'm not the least bit concerned about the financial well-being of professional athletes lol. Common folk -- yes. 

As for your third question, I've played fantasy baseball with many who find the season too long. I like the marathon but its length is a common criticism. This group will get what they want with an abbreviated campaign. 

 

 

Professional athletes have mortgage payments to make too, you know.

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20 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

Baseball related question: 

* If they cancel games, do player salaries get pro-rated accordingly?

* If they cancel the season, then do all contracts get extended an extra year (since they essentially didn't play one of the contracted years?  Depends on question 1)

* Since the fantasy season is a lot shorter than the regular baseball season, is there a point where they play an abbreviated season that fantasy is just too short to be worth it (H2H of course)

 

I would think game checks would get pro rated.  If the entire season is canceled salaries may not get paid?  The PA I'm sure would argue this for the players though.

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6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Well there are a lot of hypochondriacs out there and we can't test everyone with the sniffles.


yeah, hypochondriacs with fevers and chest coughs. 🙄 

 

of course they can’t test every person who comes in and asks. 

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41 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

OK keeping it fantasy relevant- injured players values are obviously augmented in general, but suspended players values depends on whether the missed games count toward their suspension. I would assume they don’t count toward their suspension but haven’t heard. 

Huh? Why in the world would they count towards their suspension if they weren't played? 

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

Taken from Wikipedia:

It is estimated that in the 2009 flu pandemic 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people, contracted the illness — more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate. In August 2010, the World Health Organization declared the swine flu pandemic officially over.

I remember hearing about the Swine Flu but didn't spend a waking second brooding over it. It's odd we didn't get into a tizzy over this pandemic, which was worse than COVID-19 will likely end up being?

 

[...]

COVID-19 currently has a higher fatality rate than swine flu did/does (people still contract swine flu today.) This is only just beginning. I've seen estimates that 70-80% of the population will contract the virus within the next 1-2 years. 

Edited by tonycpsu
No politics here.

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Just now, Members_Only_76 said:


yeah, hypochondriacs with fevers and chest coughs. 🙄 

 

of course they can’t test every person who comes in and asks. 

 

I'm simply pointing out that there may be good reasons for people being denied testing. If they have legitimate symptoms - of course I would want them to be tested. But I am betting that some are denied for good reason.

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8 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

Huh? Why in the world would they count towards their suspension if they weren't played? 

 

If we only end up getting 145-150 games this season do those suspensions get pro rated in terms of games needed to be served?

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6 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

If we only end up getting 145-150 games this season do those suspensions get pro rated in terms of games needed to be served?

No, I don't see any good argument for them being pro rated, personally. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

If we only end up getting 145-150 games this season do those suspensions get pro rated in terms of games needed to be served?

 

I dont think suspensions would get pro rated, but don't know for sure.

 

By saying "only" at 145-150, I think you're kind of in denial still. I hope we get that many, I'd predict 100 for now, wouldn't be surprised with less or no season.  

 

My body is ready for way too early mock draft 1 2021.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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16 minutes ago, RogerKlotz said:

 

[...]

COVID-19 currently has a higher fatality rate than swine flu did/does (people still contract swine flu today.) This is only just beginning. I've seen estimates that 70-80% of the population will contract the virus within the next 1-2 years. 

no one questions that were all probably going to get the virus at some point either this year or next and every year thereafter in all likelihood. That fact does not mean that 1-3% of all those (327 million?) will die at anything remotely close to that percentage. Once we get the testing expanded etc I think people will see it’s not nearly as lethal as it’s being made out to be. 

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I dont think suspensions would get pro rated, but don't know for sure.

 

By saying "only" at 145-150, I think you're kind of in denial still. I hope we get that many, I'd predict 100 for now, wouldn't be surprised with less or no season.  

 

My body is ready for way too early mock draft 1 2021.

 

I'd take the over on 100 games for sure.  145 games is losing just over 10% of the games.  When the weather warms up that itself will help check the virus through the late spring / summer, granted it will come surging back in late fall through the winter into early spring.  When baseball resumes there is going to be likely a week of spring training games before the season starts to ensure everyone is 100% ready.  I'd be less surprised by the MLB playoffs getting postponed than playing 100 or less games on the season.

 

The NBA and NHL still plan to play their playoffs.  So that is a very encouraging sign that we will get most of our baseball this year.  But a lot can change over the weekend.  We really have to see where we are at once we are able to actually test people efficiently.

 

If it does get truly bad where we are going to lose an extended period of pro sports (more than a few weeks) all the sports Players Associations may as well just strike out the rest of their seasons. 

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I think there is a reasonable chance the season is cancelled. I don't know why people think this is going to be better in 2 months. It might be worse. Or, it might it be a little better in two months  and then get worse if we start ramping everything back up. I think we're in this **** for a minimum of 6 months, probably a year. And maybe a couple years before the economy gets back to normal.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

I'd take the over on 100 games for sure.  

 

The NBA and NHL still plan to play their playoffs.  So that is a very encouraging sign that we will get most of our baseball this year. 

 

 

 

Look, I think anyone posting in this thread without question hopes everything turns out ok and we miss 0 baseball games or as little as possible. Baseball and Fantasy Baseball are two of my favorite things in life, and I imagine that's the same for many people reading this comment.

 

That being said, I have 0 idea how you can say any of that with certainty. "Still Plan" is a meaningless statement. You think the heads of these sports leagues know something that medical professionals and leaders dont?   Even if the weather helps the virus when it warms up, it's not like they can snap their fingers and say "OK, season starts tomorrow". It would take weeks if not a month + to start the season when we get the "All clear" sign (if that even happens any time remotley soon)

 

You all will be a lot less depressed if you seriously consider now  the fact there will be NO baseball in 2020. I don't even care if I'm 100% wrong and this comment looks stupid in 1 week. I pray that I'm wrong, and I don't even pray. I'll quote myself and say "look at this dumb@a**". Fine.

 

There's absolutely no way anyone can be positive there will be baseball this season let alone "worst case 145 games". Don't live in denial, expect this possibility, you will be less depressed when it happens.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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