Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

[kidtwentytwo 5,341]

So what happens if they return in May and a player gets sick?  Do they postpone more games?  Just treat it like the flu?  
 

I think Theres a non-zero chance the season is cancelled.  Maybe trickles into football too.

[UberRebel 545]

14 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

When the weather warms up that itself will help check the virus through the late spring / summer, granted it will come surging back in late fall through the winter into early spring. 

You don’t know that

[AJdude 45]

1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

I'd sign on the dotted line for May, absolutely

Its ridiculous.  Empty virtue signaling by the sports leagues because they're afraid of the backlash from the media if they go forward with games and deviate from the narrative of hysteria.  If Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell don't die, all games should resume in two weeks.

[Backdoor Slider 8,273]

1 hour ago, fletch44 said:

I think there is a reasonable chance the season is cancelled. I don't know why people think this is going to be better in 2 months. It might be worse. Or, it might it be a little better in two months  and then get worse if we start ramping everything back up. I think we're in this **** for a minimum of 6 months, probably a year. And maybe a couple years before the economy gets back to normal.

Because of everything we know about viruses.

[Fbaseballgod 219]

15 minutes ago, AJdude said:

Its ridiculous.  Empty virtue signaling by the sports leagues because they're afraid of the backlash from the media if they go forward with games and deviate from the narrative of hysteria.  If Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell don't die, all games should resume in two weeks.

 

Well, I definitely think sports leagues are prone to virtue signalling, but at the same time they are agreeing with all major public policy health experts and scientists, right?  So even if it's motivated by selfish reasons, it seems like it's producing the right result.

 

2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Because of everything we know about viruses.

 

I thought the most recent research/experts came out and said it's likely to peek in May?  There could be conflicting stuff but I don't think it's a scientific fact that it won't last until May. 

[tonycpsu 5,216]

2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Because of everything we know about viruses.

 

Not sure who "we" is, but unless someone in your "we" has more knowledge than Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, this is simply false:

Quote

For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own.  Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season. Changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission.

 

[Backdoor Slider 8,273]

1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So what happens if they return in May and a player gets sick?  Do they postpone more games?  Just treat it like the flu?  
 

I think Theres a non-zero chance the season is cancelled.  Maybe trickles into football too.

They keep talking about “flattening the curve.” Once it’s “under control” so to speak, and our hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, I don’t think they’ll need to continue to postpone games. That’s pure speculation though.

[RogerKlotz 23]

1 hour ago, Magoo said:

no one questions that were all probably going to get the virus at some point either this year or next and every year thereafter in all likelihood. That fact does not mean that 1-3% of all those (327 million?) will die at anything remotely close to that percentage. Once we get the testing expanded etc I think people will see it’s not nearly as lethal as it’s being made out to be. 

 

I don't think it's being exaggerated how lethal it is. The fact is we don't know yet, and the media is reporting what they know from known cases. The panic and hysteria is coming, and rightfully so, from our systems being overloaded and the anxiety of not knowing how many cases or just how lethal it is.  

[tucker26 2,316]

The lack of TP at the stores is gonna be an issue.

[FouLLine 2,849]

1 hour ago, Magoo said:

no one questions that were all probably going to get the virus at some point either this year or next and every year thereafter in all likelihood. That fact does not mean that 1-3% of all those (327 million?) will die at anything remotely close to that percentage. Once we get the testing expanded etc I think people will see it’s not nearly as lethal as it’s being made out to be. 

 

Hopefully there's a vaccine in the next 12 months. The global death rate I read yesterday was 3.7% and 3.4% in America.  While naturally testing more people will start to really cut into the death rate I highly doubt it more than cuts the current rate in half. 

 

But let's say that it does settle at 1% that still makes it 10 times more deadly than the regular flu.  I have a hunch it will be closer to 2% than 1% though when it's all said and done.  But keep in mind once the needed treatment of the pandemic exceeds the capacity of our healthcare system the death rates start going back up when people can't get the proper treatment (take Italy for example).

Edited March 13, 2020 by FouLLine

[Backdoor Slider 8,273]

7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Not sure who "we" is, but unless someone in your "we" has more knowledge than Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, this is simply false:

 

You’re funny. It’s not false. There’s a lot of “we’re unsure” and “possibly,” as this is a new virus. But it is not false and not one person will know if false about this virus until the months ahead. What I said specifically was about what we know about viruses. These guys are of course choosing their words carefully, but there’s others:

“Warmer weather could play a role in reducing SARS-CoV2 transmission,” said Greg Gray, MD, an infectious disease epidemiologist and professor at Duke University.

“During warmer weather, people often congregate less inside of closed buildings. Buildings often have more air circulation, and there is often an increase in UV light from sunshine, all of which may help reduce viral transmission,” he told Healthline.

[Members_Only_76 7,249]

 

1 minute ago, tucker26 said:

The lack of TP at the stores is gonna be an issue.

 

Beavis...a foreshadowing? who knew...

 

[Members_Only_76 7,249]

In general, as more people in the US are diagnosed with COVID-19, and speak about their experience, it will impact the public's reaction. And of course, the death rate will be a huge factor. Time will tell.

[Ecofolux 220]

My theory: games will start sometime after May 15th, could be June 1st.

They will play all of June/July/August/September/October/November (November inside domes) and have December playoffs (in domes). Season will be 120-140 games and spring training 2021 will be light and hopefully can have a normal 2021 season. Just my two cents.

[tonycpsu 5,216]

5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

“Warmer weather could play a role in reducing SARS-CoV2 transmission,” said Greg Gray, MD, an infectious disease epidemiologist and professor at Duke University.

“During warmer weather, people often congregate less inside of closed buildings. Buildings often have more air circulation, and there is often an increase in UV light from sunshine, all of which may help reduce viral transmission,” he told Healthline.

 

The statement that's false is that warmer weather will in and of itself make this better in two months, which was the original statement you were responding to.  If you meant to make a different point, then you should have made that clear.  The link I provided acknowledged that it will help, but it won't do enough on its own, which is why state and local governments have been acting until now, and why the state of emergency was declared today.  Everyone involved believes additional action is necessary.

[Members_Only_76 7,249]

1 minute ago, Ecofolux said:

(November inside domes) 

 

curious how this would play out. Are there enough domes for all teams to play in everyday? Or multiple games./matchups per day in the same dome? And how to determine who plays where?

[Ecofolux 220]

7 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

curious how this would play out. Are there enough domes for all teams to play in everyday? Or multiple games./matchups per day in the same dome? And how to determine who plays where?

Just spitballing ideas. I think 3 games could be played in 1 day. Let's say a 10am game, 3pm game and 8pm game. Not sure about who plays where, but I'm sure someone with a high enough pay grade can figure it out  

Different teams will play, not double or triple headers.

Obviously this might not happen, but then again, nothing like the current issues we face has happened before in baseball either.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ecofolux

[Backdoor Slider 8,273]

1 hour ago, fletch44 said:

I think there is a reasonable chance the season is cancelled. I don't know why people think this is going to be better in 2 months. It might be worse. Or, it might it be a little better in two months  and then get worse if we start ramping everything back up. I think we're in this **** for a minimum of 6 months, probably a year. And maybe a couple years before the economy gets back to normal.

 

10 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The statement that's false is that warmer weather will in and of itself make this better in two months, which was the original statement you were responding to.  If you meant to make a different point, then you should have made that clear.  The link I provided acknowledged that it will help, but it won't do enough on its own, which is why state and local governments have been acting until now, and why the state of emergency was declared today.  Everyone involved believes additional action is necessary.

Here’s what I bolded from his post. So understanding words, if it will help, as you and your link acknowledge, would you agree that means “better,” and not “the same” or “worse”? 
 

I think what I said was perfectly clear. Maybe spend some more time slowing down and reading. 

[tonycpsu 5,216]

18 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

So understanding words, if it will help, as you and your link acknowledge, would you agree that means “better,” and not “the same” or “worse”? 

Bold-facing a single phrase within a larger point someone is making does not permit you to ret-con in your desired interpretation of what they were originally saying.  Context matters.  Divorcing the statement from that context is non-responsive to the original statement at best, and a cheap rhetorical trick at worst.

The original comment was in regards to things being better in 2 months so that the season can start.  For that to happen, the disease has to not just be better in absolute terms, but under control, to the point where it wouldn't be irresponsible to put players out there or to ask fans to show up.

Your response was that, "because of everything we know about viruses", things will "be better", clearly a reference to the idea that seasonal change alone will make it so.  Except "be better" was defined by the original comment was "so games can be played", and there is not a credible expert out there who has made a statement to the effect that seasonal changes alone will eliminate the threat to the point where sporting events could take place without endangering peoples' lives.

[cs3 3,471]

2 hours ago, FouLLine said:

The NBA and NHL still plan to play their playoffs.  So that is a very encouraging sign

that's true, but the NBA and NHL play indoors. Baseball already plays right up until the weather makes it virtually impossible. Unless I'm counting incorrectly, MLB only has 8 closed roof stadiums. That's a big problem if trying to extend the schedule into November/December. I see zero chance that there's a full 162 game season. A full cancellation of the season is more likely than that. 144 games honestly seems like a "best case scenario" with ~120 games played being more likely. 

[Sidearmer 2,048]

14 minutes ago, cs3 said:

that's true, but the NBA and NHL play indoors. Baseball already plays right up until the weather makes it virtually impossible. Unless I'm counting incorrectly, MLB only has 8 closed roof stadiums. That's a big problem if trying to extend the schedule into November/December. I see zero chance that there's a full 162 game season. A full cancellation of the season is more likely than that. 144 games honestly seems like a "best case scenario" with ~120 games played being more likely. 

 

With the "smoothing of the curve" the outbreak will theoretically last much longer, but it will be less concentrated. So if the goal is to flatten the curve, this will last much longer than 2 weeks. I'd be surprised if we start in April at this point.

[merlin401 853]

10 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

With the "smoothing of the curve" the outbreak will theoretically last much longer, but it will be less concentrated. So if the goal is to flatten the curve, this will last much longer than 2 weeks. I'd be surprised if we start in April at this point.

 

Genuine question is if we smooth the curve and just make the infection rate less, what happens when you start up in June and in three weeks Kiki Hernandez tests positive?  Multiple teams get quarantined? Or at that point people are just muscling through it?

Edited March 13, 2020 by merlin401

[cs3 3,471]

7 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

this will last much longer than 2 weeks

Agreed, that was exactly my point. Better chance of zero baseball played at all in 2020 than a full 162 game season.

[Sidearmer 2,048]

3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

Genuine question is is we smooth the curve and just make the infection rate less, what happens when you start up in June and in three weeks Kiki Hernandez tests positive?  Multiple teams get quarantined? Or at that point people are just muscling through it?

 

Impossible to know. That's why I think it will last much longer than we all think because the leagues will want to avoid this.

[brockpapersizer 11,407]

1 minute ago, merlin401 said:

 

Genuine question is is we smooth the curve and just make the infection rate less, what happens when you start up in June and in three weeks Kiki Hernandez tests positive?  Multiple teams get quarantined? Or at that point people are just muscling through it?

 

I think if MLB actually starts games up, it will be because the outlook looks a lot better.  If a few players get sick after that, I imagine muscling through it. I just think MLB will be very cautious when they give the green light. 

People saying "NBA/NHL" plan to blah blah blah.  I have no idea why anyone would put any stock on anything a league official says about the future of a virus pandemic.  They know basically as much as us.