bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here. 19 means yes, it’s a new strain. But Coronavirus is not new. So I’m not sure you’re breaking what you think you are.

 

Plesse just stop it. The guy was citing the evidence gathered by scientists of the previous 18 strains of coronavirus. That’s obviously a bunch of uninformed drivel.  Speaking of which, yes there is other coronaviruses and does the evidence bear out this cited propensity for them to weaken in warm weather? No. One of those coronavirus was MERS which spread almost exclusively in the Middle East

Edited by merlin401

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10 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Sorry if this has been shared.  There's so much discussion here and I can't keep up.  This was from 2014. 😕

 


give me synopsis of this vid pls

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CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that was first detected in China and which has now been detected in more than 100 locations internationally, including in the United States. The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

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12 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Plesse just stop it. The guy was citing the evidence gathered by scientists of the previous 18 strains of coronavirus. That’s obviously a bunch of uninformed drivel.  Speaking of which, yes there is other coronaviruses and does the evidence bear out this cited propensity for them to weaken in warm weather? No. One of those coronavirus was MERS which spread almost exclusively in the Middle East

Didn’t notice the “18 strains” part. But you could also read up more. Everyone keeps citing the one MERS example, but there are plenty of other examples. You’re using the exception, not the rule, when what we’re trying to do is make educational guesses. That’s faulty logic.

“Coronaviruses have seasonality,” says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist with the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. “We do know that certain environmental conditions favor the transmission of viruses and that cold weather, the humidity, all of that, affect trajectory. There’s a good reason to believe [this virus] will have that seasonality.”

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Heard chatter the season could still start in April with empty stadiums for fans, wait for the outbreak to die down for opening stadiums back up. I’d rather this happen than an extremely abbreviated season.

I don't think that chatter is anything but hopeful internet rumor stuff.  Rotoworld blurb:

Quote

Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic report that Major League Baseball is expected to advise teams to end organized group workouts at their spring training and home parks.

The report says that camps would remain open "for individual needs, but with limited staff." To this point, some clubs have continued with voluntary workouts, but it sounds as if MLB would like to do away with those as they apply stricter social-distancing practices. It's the latest evidence that suggests we will not see the MLB regular season starting anytime soon.

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter                              Mar 15, 2020, 11:33 AM ET

If they can't workout with each other they can't play versus another team in empty stadiums.  Also though no major leaguer has tested positive so far -- and we don't even know if any have been tested at all -- one minor leaguer has.  He had no contact with the major league spring training camp or players but it shows no one is immune as yet another NBA player tested positive yesterday was it and he was on the Pistons, not the Jazz.

Quote

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that a Yankees minor leaguer has tested positive for coronavirus.

The Yankees have confirmed the report. The team added that the player did not have any contact with the major league club and has never been to Steinbrenner Field, where the Yanks play their Grapefruit League games. There's no reason to believe at this point that the player passed along the virus to someone else, but obviously the team and the league will take the matter very seriously. MLB already sent out a memo earlier Sunday advising clubs to end organized group workouts at their spring training and home parks.

Source: Jeff Passan on Twitter                             Mar 15, 2020, 1:10 PM ET

So on one hold their breaths until the season starts in other words.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Didn’t notice the “18 strains” part. But you could also read up more. Everyone keeps citing the one MERS example, but there are plenty of other examples. You’re using the exception, not the rule, when what we’re trying to do is make educational guesses. That’s faulty logic.

“Coronaviruses have seasonality,” says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist with the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. “We do know that certain environmental conditions favor the transmission of viruses and that cold weather, the humidity, all of that, affect trajectory. There’s a good reason to believe [this virus] will have that seasonality.”

 

Most experts say they simply do not know yet.  

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

if you’ve seen peer reviewed publications stating COVID-19s transmission in warm weather, feel free to let me know. The world is quite eager to know the answer to this question which can go either way 

 

edit: to be clear citing MERS is not evidence that this virus will NOT stop in summer; just an example that we don’t know

Edited by merlin401

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44 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't think that chatter is anything but hopeful internet rumor stuff.  Rotoworld blurb:

If they can't workout with each other they can't play versus another team in empty stadiums.  Also though no major leaguer has tested positive so far -- and we don't even know if any have been tested at all -- one minor leaguer has.  He had no contact with the major league spring training camp or players but it shows no one is immune as yet another NBA player tested positive yesterday was it and he was on the Pistons, not the Jazz.

So on one hold their breaths until the season starts in other words.

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2020/03/13/mlb-could-still-have-a-162-game-season/

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2 hours ago, Rotocious said:

It is covid-19 there were 18 other strains before this that they have this knowledge on.

wow ... 19 standing for 2019, the year the first cases were seen.

 

1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

19 means yes, it’s a new strain

yikes .. doing a lot of posting and you don’t know why it has a 19 

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

wow ... 19 standing for 2019, the year the first cases were seen.

 

yikes .. doing a lot of posting and you don’t know why it has a 19 

Try reading some more. I didn’t see that part from him.  And what I said was “means it’s a new strain,” which is 100% accurate. Thanks.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Try reading some more. I didn’t see that part from him.  And what I said was “means it’s a new strain,” which is 100% accurate. Thanks.

Don’cha think you could heed that advice..

Experts skeptical that warm weather will slow COVID-19 outbreak

Many, including President Donald Trump, have posited that warmer weather will eventually get the best of the new coronavirus. However, some infectious disease experts, including a top epidemiologist at Harvard University and the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis, are cautioning that unlike cases of seasonal flu, which tend to decline in the spring and summer months, COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes it, will not behave in the same manner.

 

So it seems we really don’t know ... carry on.

Edited by shakestreet
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Basically, nobody has any idea of what exactly is going to happen.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

Kudos to Trump for declaring COVD-19 a national emergency. Reading his Twitter his messaging is now spot-on. That is huge as his previous minimizing (and even blaming the Democrats and press) tone generated great and dangerous confusion, as re-reading through this thread reveals. I’m glad state and local leaders as well as the leaders of the sports and entertainment industry were ahead of the curve and cancelled events what seemed like prematurely a few days ago.  Look at what is happening in Spain and France today. They are about a week ahead of us. I expect outbreaks around the country next week. One just happened in NJ. Stay safe. We are about to hit a several week period of rapid spread before it gets better.  

 

As Trump tweeted today, “social distancing”. Someone finally has his ear that knows what to do in this situation. 

 

As of this writing, the confirmed death toll in Spain is 292 and in France is 91. Italy, which is the world's cautionary tale, is 1809. The average age of those who die is 81, in other words life expectancy. Italy has an old population and many there smoke. 

Thus far this winter, essentially for as long as COVID-19 has been known, tens of thousands of Americans have succumbed to the flu. The 2017-18 flu season was especially pernicious, claiming 80,000 Americans. But I do remember all the closures, cancellations, and suspensions; guilt ingrained in the healthy who choose to live their lives to the supposed detriment of the infirm; the frightened masses hunkering in isolation on a mountain of toilet paper rolls. Not.

Edited by IceGoat
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12 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Don’cha think you could heed that advice..

Experts skeptical that warm weather will slow COVID-19 outbreak

Many, including President Donald Trump, have posited that warmer weather will eventually get the best of the new coronavirus. However, some infectious disease experts, including a top epidemiologist at Harvard University and the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis, are cautioning that unlike cases of seasonal flu, which tend to decline in the spring and summer months, COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes it, will not behave in the same manner.

 

So it seems we really don’t know ... carry on.

 

Its definitely unknown, but there is hope that it could happenbased on seasonal flu. So yes, its unproven but there is reason for optimism. Hopefully we will have a handle on it before that so it doesn't matter either way.

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15 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Don’cha think you could heed that advice..

Experts skeptical that warm weather will slow COVID-19 outbreak

Many, including President Donald Trump, have posited that warmer weather will eventually get the best of the new coronavirus. However, some infectious disease experts, including a top epidemiologist at Harvard University and the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis, are cautioning that unlike cases of seasonal flu, which tend to decline in the spring and summer months, COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes it, will not behave in the same manner.

 

So it seems we really don’t know ... carry on.

Nobody said we know. What some people here are saying is it’s likely based on what we do know. 
Here’s a baseball analogy:

You- “One time an Angels OF hit less than 20 HRs, so Trout May hit less than 20 HRs!”

Me- “Well yes, it’s possible. No one knows. But based on education guesses on what we do know, I *think* it’s likely he’ll hit more.”
 

Experts are being cautious and saying the right things. There are no certainties. But most admit it’s very possible warm weather will slow its spread here in the States.

Carry on...

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1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

Plesse just stop it. The guy was citing the evidence gathered by scientists of the previous 18 strains of coronavirus. That’s obviously a bunch of uninformed drivel.  Speaking of which, yes there is other coronaviruses and does the evidence bear out this cited propensity for them to weaken in warm weather? No. One of those coronavirus was MERS which spread almost exclusively in the Middle East

I don't think its an incorrect assumption to make in terms of slowing down on a virus who's major danger is how contagious it is. MERS was not as contagious. The foolish assumption would be thinking it disapates to healthy/manageable level ATM.

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20 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

 

As of this writing, the confirmed death toll in Spain is 292 and in France is 91. Italy, which is the world's cautionary tale, is 1809. The average age of those who die is 81, in other words life expectancy. Italy has an old population and many there smoke. 

Thus far this winter, essentially for as long as COVID-19 has been known, tens of thousands of Americans have succumbed to the flu. The 2017-18 flu season was especially pernicious, claiming 80,000 Americans. But I do remember all the closures, cancellations, and suspensions; guilt ingrained in the healthy who choose to live their lives to the supposed detriment of the infirm; the frightened masses hunkering in isolation on a mountain of toilet paper rolls. Not.

So in your opinion, the reaction to this by the ENTIRE world is ridiculous.

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Posted (edited)

Check out a book titled " End of Days" by Silvia Brown, written in 2008, she basically called this virus, to the "T".. or rather, to the "C"-19...I'll let you all read it rather than footnote it...you have the time, so read it..

Edited by FISH ON

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18 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Check out a book titled " End of Days" by Silvia Brown, written in 2008, she basically called this virus, to the "T".. or rather, to the "C"-19...I'll let you all read it rather than footnote it...you have the time, so read it..

She has made some pretty bad calls tho 

this one seems most accurate however 

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So in your opinion, the reaction to this by the ENTIRE world is ridiculous.

The projected reaction is.  Healthy athletes are not at any sort of mortality risk at this juncture.  Suspending the season for two weeks is reasonable.  That should be sufficient to flatten the curve, as they say.  Provided Gobert and Mitchell recover, then maybe play two more weeks in limited arena capacity situations but by early to mid-April there should be no reason to stop the world any longer.  Those who are high risk should continue to self-quarrantine at that point, but nobody else.

Flus sweep through professional teams every winter/spring, and it doesn't stop the world.  Some caution here is fine and probably warranted, but not for months on end.  That seems to be a little out there, IMO.

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2 minutes ago, AJdude said:

The projected reaction is.  Healthy athletes are not at any sort of mortality risk at this juncture.  Suspending the season for two weeks is reasonable.  That should be sufficient to flatten the curve, as they say.  Provided Gobert and Mitchell recover, then maybe play two more weeks in limited arena capacity situations but by early to mid-April there should be no reason to stop the world any longer.  Those who are high risk should continue to self-quarrantine at that point, but nobody else.

Flus sweep through professional teams every winter/spring, and it doesn't stop the world.  Some caution here is fine and probably warranted, but not for months on end.  That seems to be a little out there, IMO.

But what do you do with the athletes, isolate them? Keep them from their family? This isn't about protecting the healthy, it's about the vulnerable. 

It's irresponsible to cite the flu numbers now. Do it when this is all over. Italy is still jumping up, US is just getting started. 

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46 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Check out a book titled " End of Days" by Silvia Brown, written in 2008, she basically called this virus, to the "T".. or rather, to the "C"-19...I'll let you all read it rather than footnote it...you have the time, so read it..

 

She called H1N1 too. Otherwise the book is pure fiction.

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28 minutes ago, AJdude said:

The projected reaction is.  Healthy athletes are not at any sort of mortality risk at this juncture.  Suspending the season for two weeks is reasonable.  That should be sufficient to flatten the curve, as they say.  Provided Gobert and Mitchell recover, then maybe play two more weeks in limited arena capacity situations but by early to mid-April there should be no reason to stop the world any longer.  Those who are high risk should continue to self-quarrantine at that point, but nobody else.

Flus sweep through professional teams every winter/spring, and it doesn't stop the world.  Some caution here is fine and probably warranted, but not for months on end.  That seems to be a little out there, IMO.

Two weeks of suspending the season should be sufficient to flatten the curve? That’s great! Someone alert all the infectious disease experts that we can all get back to normal in two weeks. You really are misinformed on this topic. 

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