bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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3 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Korean and Japanese baseball is gearing up now. It would be badass if ESPN (etc.) showed some games. Maybe ESPN 2. Maybe ESPN the Ocho. 

I look at this as a massive positive.

Two possibilities take place in my mind:

1. North America learns from the outbreak in other countries, and as it becomes more severe and more scientists/doctors worldwide work together, we reach a solution quicker than anticipated, bringing us to a start to the baseball season.

2. Leagues start back up, and another outbreak occurs, thus realizing we rushed back into sports play..

I obviously hope number 1 happens and that the Koreans and Japanese have taken all the precautions and measures necessary to deem the return to sport safe. 

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24 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Is there a strong possibility that this becomes a yearly thing? Do I have to worry about a 2021 Coronavirus Outlook thread?

Not an expert but I’ve read some smart people expecting this to stick around for a while, at least until a vaccine is readily available. Here’s an article about the quest to find a vaccine - https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2870009001

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Not an expert but I’ve read some smart people expecting this to stick around for a while, at least until a vaccine is readily available. Here’s an article about the quest to find a vaccine - https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2870009001

I am not one of the smart people, but reading the tea leaves I fully expect it to stick around a while, as in 12-18 months.  However the larger question is, at some point will its growth stablize/stagnate enough as to not overwhelm the hostpital system.  In other words, what level can it get to so that we can get back to living again somewhat normally (in reference to sports, playing in empty stadiums and gradually ramping up from there).  Could we get to this acceptable level in June or July, who knows.

Edited by El_Chingon

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Korean and Japanese baseball is gearing up now. It would be badass if ESPN (etc.) showed some games. Maybe ESPN 2. Maybe ESPN the Ocho. 


Wily Mo anyone?

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3 hours ago, IceGoat said:

I saw those statistics. I have to say 20-55 is a BIG age range. If you sat down a 20 year old next to a 55 year old, they would have little in common. Could 95% of the hospitalizations in that age bracket occur between 50 and 55? Probably not -- but it's almost as if there's a narrative to be spun. Some young people may be acting recklessly and it's been determined the social distancing for the sake of the vulnerable message is not always sinking in -- so the media is trying a new approach. 

????  You do know this was official statistics that were read out at one of the noon Trump briefings.  Not something the media made up to scare spring break jerks into behaving responsibly.  And yes another study showed that even in China where the numbers were smaller for 20-somethings, the younger people came away often times with lasting damage to their lungs in the 20 to 30% capacity damage range.  So yes this does affect 20-somethings.  So if some of them survive they may end up huffing an puffing up stairs like a 90 year old for the rest of their lives.  It is real.

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My take on the baseball season: I refuse to believe it’s cancelled until I hear it from Manfred’s mouth. To me it is important to remain hopeful. We’re in our homes with life upended. Dire and apocalyptic thoughts are the lazy route, as dire and apocalyptic as this time feels. This will pass. We’ll see players take the field. We’ll launch our stat trackers, talk trash, resume life, get together for a beer. Giving up that thought feels unhealthy during this period in history.

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7 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

My take on the baseball season: I refuse to believe it’s cancelled until I hear it from Manfred’s mouth. To me it is important to remain hopeful. We’re in our homes with life upended. Dire and apocalyptic thoughts are the lazy route, as dire and apocalyptic as this time feels. This will pass. We’ll see players take the field. We’ll launch our stat trackers, talk trash, resume life, get together for a beer. Giving up that thought feels unhealthy during this period in history.

I'm hopeful there's enough benefit to herd immunity that we can find a resolution which is socially healthy and economically viable.  I think that's our best shot.

Because I don't know if We, capital W, will tolerate an indefinite policy of social distancing for a year and a half if that's how long a vaccine takes.

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39 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'd like to be holier than thou as much as the next guy, that said if you asked me when I was 20 years old if I was concerned about carrying a virus to my elderly neighbors I can't say I would have been thinking altruistically between kegstands.

Not to excuse the idiotic behavior.  But I too have been an idiot.  Just not that young of an idiot during a global pandemic.

Fair point.  I too was an idiot (pretty sure, I was never as bad as that guy though.) I would THINK I wouldn’t have done that.  But, truly there’s no way of knowing.  Also to be fair,I can’t say from looking what percentage of spring breakers did cancel their trips because of this.   Maybe this is a small selfish minority.

 

on another note, doesn’t Florida have a massive senior population?   That could be an issue.

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1 minute ago, Cesare13 said:

Fair point.  I too was an idiot (pretty sure, I was never as bad as that guy though.) I would THINK I wouldn’t have done that.  But, truly there’s no way of knowing.  Also to be fair,I can’t say from looking what percentage of spring breakers did cancel their trips because of this.   Maybe this is a small selfish minority.

 

on another note, doesn’t Florida have a massive senior population?   That could be an issue.

Quite right, "God's waiting room."

Although typically the spring break destinations and the concentrated senior populations are geographically distant, with some exceptions.  Either way it's dumb as hell, no argument.  Kids thinking they are gonna live forever and not thinking of the people they are bound to encounter even once they get home.

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Korean and Japanese baseball is gearing up now. It would be badass if ESPN (etc.) showed some games. Maybe ESPN 2. Maybe ESPN the Ocho. 

 

Worst comes to worse as far as MLB is concerned, maybe we can get some Asian FBB going?  Anybody who has the ears of someone at say, Fantrax... If they deliver that and the big boys don't, it could be a great opportunity to bring in new people. It would actually be a lot of fun learning the Asian leagues.

 

As far as MLB is concerned, I don't think the virus still being a problem in 6 or 18 months is really the relevant question.  It's more, will society still be so locked down that playing games, perhaps in an empty stadium, is a particularly risky activity?  Is playing baseball any worse than whatever else they'd be doing? It seems a lot less risky than many things, like going to the movies or a restaurant. So, if you are back do doing those things, might as well make oceans of money playing ball. 

 

If the rest of society is no longer on lockdown, I don't see any reason MLB would be.  

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'd like to be holier than thou as much as the next guy, that said if you asked me when I was 20 years old if I was concerned about carrying a virus to my elderly neighbors I can't say I would have been thinking altruistically between kegstands.

Not to excuse the idiotic behavior.  But I too have been an idiot.  Just not that young of an idiot during a global pandemic.

 

This.

And you know that thing about raising your kids to be better than you.....

I sleep ridiculously well at night knowing that my son, who just happens to be 20 years old himself, would look at that guy and say 'what a ******** idiot' 

 

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Okay so I'm not an epidemiologist but this is interesting to me:

 

2019/20 flu season confirmed cases: 222,552

2019/20 flu season estimated deaths: 22,000

 

That would be a 9.9% death rate on confirmed cases. That's not the rate the CDC uses, though. They use estimated number of flu cases as their denominator instead of positive tests.

 

COVID-19's death rate has been using confirmed cases, not estimated cases.

 

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I hope MLB steps up when the game does return and offer free MLB tv to everyone

I think stadiums will be empty all season regardless

 

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43 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Okay so I'm not an epidemiologist but this is interesting to me:

 

2019/20 flu season confirmed cases: 222,552

2019/20 flu season estimated deaths: 22,000

 

That would be a 9.9% death rate on confirmed cases. That's not the rate the CDC uses, though. They use estimated number of flu cases as their denominator instead of positive tests.

 

COVID-19's death rate has been using confirmed cases, not estimated cases.

 

 

This is from the CDC and should answer your questions  They use surrogate data and modeling but there are assumptions and limitations they outline. 


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

 

One thing they don’t include in the denominator is asymptomatic cases.  Like COVId-19 there are a lot of asymptomatic infections. 

https://www.clinicaladvisor.com/home/web-exclusives/most-flu-cases-asymptomatic/
 

So if they include asymptomatic contacts for the CoVID 19 denominator that is going to make the death rate appear lower than how they calculate the flu death rate. 
 

 

image.jpeg

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So are we all gonna die or am I gonna get to put the months of research I did on full display? 

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A friend of mine made the point that these people working at grocery stores, gas stations, picking up the trash, etc. are holding things together and risking their own health for very little money so it might be a good idea to start throwing them some tips, especially as many don't have paid sick leave.  

I figure that's a good idea. Threw a couple of bucks at such people today and got big smiles and thank yous that were worth ten times what I paid.  

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Yes stockers, truck drivers, nurses are heroes right now.  But I think you're helping more people by practicing social distancing and going about your business.  At the end of the day they still have a job and likely not the people at most risk.  It's estimated that 80% of the population will inevitably get it.  Everyone needs to do their part to isolate as much as possible, If you see the same worker busting their butt during this time and when it all blows over then throw them something.  But I don't think right now is the time for it.

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2 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

This is from the CDC and should answer your questions  They use surrogate data and modeling but there are assumptions and limitations they outline. 


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

 

One thing they don’t include in the denominator is asymptomatic cases.  Like COVId-19 there are a lot of asymptomatic infections. 

https://www.clinicaladvisor.com/home/web-exclusives/most-flu-cases-asymptomatic/
 

So if they include asymptomatic contacts for the CoVID 19 denominator that is going to make the death rate appear lower than how they calculate the flu death rate. 
 

 

image.jpeg

 

Havent experts said there are a lot more asymptotic cases with COVID? Which is one of the huge worries with it (people carrying it without knowing)?

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30 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Yes stockers, truck drivers, nurses are heroes right now.  But I think you're helping more people by practicing social distancing and going about your business.  At the end of the day they still have a job and likely not the people at most risk.  It's estimated that 80% of the population will inevitably get it.  Everyone needs to do their part to isolate as much as possible, If you see the same worker busting their butt during this time and when it all blows over then throw them something.  But I don't think right now is the time for it.

 

While I'm not rich, I'm fortunate relative to these people. So I don't think it's ever a BAD time to pass some on to a person who performs services for me.  Worst case Ontario someone is slightly happier.

I'm doing social distancing but I don't really see any connection between the two things. 

It's true that they have jobs now, I don't know why that matters either.  It's true a lot of people will get it eventually. That's a good reason to help each other out.  they are extra likely to get it because they're out there working. And they'll get it before treatments are available, if that happens.  And most of them don't have paid sick leave, or maybe have like 5 days of all purpose PTO for the whole year.

I think it's cool to buy them a drink.  Not saying it's obligatory or you're bad for not doing it, but I think it's a great idea and hope it catches on.  Imagine reading a story about how people providing services during the pandemic were making like $200 a week extra because people were grateful to them and wanted to make sure they came out of it in good shape. 

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I'm hopeful there will be a season but I doubt it. Look what's happening in the NBA. Everyday someone else tests positive and they are isolated. Until this is under control you can't have teams that close to one another. They will all get it. Not to mention the rest of the staff who age wise maybe in the danger zone. The safety of everyone comes first. Even if you play games in empty stadiums the teams are around one another and can easily catch it. It's spread by droplets and these guys sweat a lot and share common space and use things that everyone touches like the gatorade jug and all the equipment in the on deck circle not to mention things in the clubhouse.

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weren't most of the people in Italy because of pre existing conditions?

 

also this news..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-death-rate-in-wuhan-lower-than-initial-estimates-new-study-finds-11584663474

 

Quote

 

Coronavirus Death Rate in Wuhan Lower Than Initial Estimates, New Study Finds

The rate in the Chinese city, where the virus originated, was 1.4% at end-February, a few percentage points lower than other estimates

 

 

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27 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

weren't most of the people in Italy because of pre existing conditions?

 

I’m not an expert, nor am I presenting an opinion on the matter, but from I’ve read about Italy:

1) initially, flights from Hubei, when it was clear there was a problem, were allowed in and passengers were allowed out completely unimpeded.

2) many Italian citizens disregarded and flaunted the isolation rules.  So much so that 200,000  citations had to be written.  Those are just the people that got caught.

3) Italians  culturally greet people with kisses on the cheek or very close contact.

4) Italians culturally often share homes with their elderly relatives.

5) italians have one of the oldest populations in the world (30% over the age of 60, second only to Japan)

6) Italy has a high population of smokers.

 

I pray the situation gets better over there soon.  Those people have been through a lot.  

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In terms of Italy, I read the AVERAGE fatality rate was 79 point something. Thats pretty sky high.  I assume since this is a fantasy board you know how averages work. 

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

In terms of Italy, I read the AVERAGE fatality rate was 79 point something. Thats pretty sky high.  I assume since this is a fantasy board you know how averages work. 


Do you mean fatality age?

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1 minute ago, TrueToTheBlue said:


Do you mean fatality age?

 

Yes, Yes I did.

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