bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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On 3/19/2020 at 3:06 AM, daynlokki said:

SARS peaked in May and MERS predominantly spreads in warm climates...

 

Again causation and correlation aren't always the same thing. 

 

I've heard many experts say there is no reason to think this virus will act any differently than coronaviruses (not just viruses in general but they specifically have been saying coronaviruses) of the past when it comes to warm weather.

 

Yes April is warmer than March and the cases and deaths will be higher.  But not because of the warmer weather but because there was more time for the infection to compound.

 

Again we would be in such a worse position if this was October/November and we were looking ahead to Dec, Jan, Feb.  Luckily we are on the other side of winter or this could have been much worse.

 

Now you want to make the argument there are more gatherings in the summer time to possibly increase the rate of infection I can say there's merit to that argument.  But people need to stop acting like this virus is different from other viruses that it won't be "weaker" (less efficient may be a better term) in the warmer weather.

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I think we in the US are in a decent (but not great spot) because:

 

a) Trump banned all travel from China to the US early. I think he’s botched parts of this by not taking it seriously enough until the last week or so, but at least the early China travel ban delayed the outbreak here for another few weeks to a month - and during that specific time period people weren’t taking COVID-19 as seriously as they are now. There were still large public gatherings going on during that month long timeframe. Imagine where we’d be right now if it started spreading in the US during that period. If you recall the outbreak in Italy began with a traveler from Wuhan China visiting Northern Italy as a tourist. 
 

b) We’re seeing the devastating effects on another 1st world country (Italy) before the spread of the virus has really ramped up here. This has caused local governments to take major precautions such as closing businesses and strongly recommending no gatherings of 10 or more people. It’s also woken Trump up to the severity of the situation (better late than never). The general public is also seeing what’s going on in Italy and the vast majority are taking precautions to isolate. Yes there are still some selfish a**holes like the spring breakers but the vast majority I think are following the rules. I live in Center City Philadelphia (6th most populated city in the US) and when I walked out to get food yesterday the streets were completely empty. 
 

This whole thing still sucks, and my bet is it’s not until July/August that things start to feel somewhat “normal” again. Things are still about to get a lot worse before they get better. August would also be my best guess as to when MLB would feel comfortable enough to start playing again even in empty stadiums. They have to be super cautious because of the possibility of a player getting infected and it spreading through the league would be devastating. By August I think they’d just go ahead and cancel the season, and my money is on us seeing no baseball until 2021 unfortunately. 

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I don't see how anything can return to normal until we develop a vaccine that works.

 

Flattening the curve will help hospitals from being overwhelmed in the short term which is priority number one. 

People with underlying conditions should probably be sheltering in place already for their own safety, as well as older people in that high risk group.   

 

As much as I would like to see sports return for our entertainment,  I don't think that will be happening anytime soon.  Stay safe everybody.

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Anyone still drafting with this crap going on? Ours was supposed to be this Sunday.  🤬

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, FUM said:

Anyone still drafting with this crap going on? Ours was supposed to be this Sunday.  🤬

We have ours scheduled for next week. It is hard to get everyone on the same page so as the commish i have told everyone we are going through with it.

In the event the season is canceled, i will simply return everybodies entry fees.

I dont really see the issue in drafting now. I mean, guys who are injured will keep their value now, but, other than that, no major implications in my opinion.

Edited by jonninho
sp?

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13 minutes ago, FUM said:

Anyone still drafting with this crap going on? Ours was supposed to be this Sunday.  🤬

Doing a 40 round best ball draft now to get my fix in.  Will probably do those until real drafts start back up again (hopefully).

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10 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Havent experts said there are a lot more asymptotic cases with COVID? Which is one of the huge worries with it (people carrying it without knowing)?

 

Definitely the worry with COVID-19 and why it has become a pandemic, whereas SARS-1, MERS and Ebola didn't.  You could just tell who was sick so much easier. 

 

I couldn't find anywhere estimating the % of asymptomatic carriers with COVID-19.  But like the death rate, the most important number is the total number of asymptomatic carriers, not the percentage.  

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, jonninho said:

We have ours scheduled for next week. It is hard to get everyone on the same page so as the commish i have told everyone we are going through with it.

In the event the season is canceled, i will simply return everybodies entry fees.

I dont really see the issue in drafting now. I mean, guys who are injured will keep their value now, but, other than that, no major implications in my opinion.


I thought the same thing.  One guy has a whack work schedule and we have to revolve our football and baseball drafts around him alone every year.  Getting everyone together on the same day is a chore.
 

They were concerned if one of the players drafted gets Corona.  My argument was there are leagues that draft early before and during spring training and players get hurt, so what’s the difference?  Looks like it’s mock drafts for this guy!

Edited by FUM

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This disease is God's way of telling us that the three batter rule for pitchers is a stupid rule...

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53 minutes ago, FUM said:


I thought the same thing.  One guy has a whack work schedule and we have to revolve our football and baseball drafts around him alone every year.  Getting everyone together on the same day is a chore.
 

They were concerned if one of the players drafted gets Corona.  My argument was there are leagues that draft early before and during spring training and players get hurt, so what’s the difference?  Looks like it’s mock drafts for this guy!

Yeah, i dont agree with that strategy. So, what if they resume play and lets say someone gets Corona? It is still possible for them to get it once the season is confirmed to resume. I think all drafts should just go ahead as planned, entry fees returned if season is canceled. No harm in that.

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2 hours ago, FUM said:

Anyone still drafting with this crap going on? Ours was supposed to be this Sunday.  🤬

Keeper league, we still are on Monday, kinda pointless b/c they won't play or will only play half season, trying to decide on strategy, might take a lot of young players i could keep next year, luzardo robert etc

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doing 2 dynasty league drafts this Sunday ... 1 AL only and 1 NL only ... same set of owners

 

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2 hours ago, FUM said:

Anyone still drafting with this crap going on? Ours was supposed to be this Sunday.  🤬

 

Just finished up our Homers league recently...

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let's be real, the season won't start until July at best, and August realistically.

what is everyone doing for dynasty? we're in a league where players are on an A/B/C contract, and entering their C season you must extend them at $ per year if you want to keep them. having good young players is crucial, because minor leaguers are $5 til the extension.

I went full rebuild, and entering year 3 of our league i'm in prime position, but will be losing a full season on some of these $5 guys. part of me wonders if all values should be frozen for this season, if there even is one.

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12 minutes ago, axiom20XX said:

let's be real, the season won't start until July at best, and August realistically.

what is everyone doing for dynasty? we're in a league where players are on an A/B/C contract, and entering their C season you must extend them at $ per year if you want to keep them. having good young players is crucial, because minor leaguers are $5 til the extension.

I went full rebuild, and entering year 3 of our league i'm in prime position, but will be losing a full season on some of these $5 guys. part of me wonders if all values should be frozen for this season, if there even is one.

 

If there is no season values/salaries should be frozen, I think.  Any season at all and they should advance per league rules.  

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Average lifespan of an Italian is around 83 years old. People are acting like 79 is so old.

75% of them had the "pre-existing condition" of high-blood pressure, which is common among adults, especially of woman and African-Americans.

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On 3/19/2020 at 3:05 PM, jonninho said:

I dont understand where this belief that we become immune to it if we have it had and recovered has come from. As someone else pointed out earlier, for those of who have had the flu and/or gotten the flu shot.. we still get the flu.. we are not immune to the flu.. why is this any different? I dont think we are immune to COVID-19 if we have had it and recovered from it.

 

We shall see, different viruses mutate at different rates.  I'd say it is more common for our body to have immunity to virus once defeating them than it is to not develop that, so I'm being optimistic (but I realize it is by no means a sure thing)

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45 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

We shall see, different viruses mutate at different rates.  I'd say it is more common for our body to have immunity to virus once defeating them than it is to not develop that, so I'm being optimistic (but I realize it is by no means a sure thing)


Yeah influenza A mutates its N and H antigens each year and is tough to predict which combo will predominate. Sometimes the flushot is better than others.  Influenza B mutates less and there is some at least partial lifelong immunity. 

 

We don't know enough about COVID-19 (aka SARS-2) to know how effective the vaccine will be. On the bummer side, they were never able to develop effective vaccines to SARS-1 and MERS, the two other "bad" coronaviruses, although we are obviously putting a lot more time and energy into this one. We'll have to see in a year. 

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1 hour ago, axiom20XX said:

let's be real, the season won't start until July at best, and August realistically.

what is everyone doing for dynasty? we're in a league where players are on an A/B/C contract, and entering their C season you must extend them at $ per year if you want to keep them. having good young players is crucial, because minor leaguers are $5 til the extension.

I went full rebuild, and entering year 3 of our league i'm in prime position, but will be losing a full season on some of these $5 guys. part of me wonders if all values should be frozen for this season, if there even is one.

 

I am feeling kind of pessimistic about this situation, but we really don't know for sure when the season will start. It could be that the curve is lowered in 2-4 weeks and then maybe they start the season, or play the entire season in empty stadiums. I'm hoping for that at least.

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Posted (edited)

The best case scenario is that the virus is indeed weather or humidity variable and/or mutates along the way (a lot of viruses mutate and become less pathogenic over time- that's waht happened to some degree with MERS and SARS) and peters out this summer.  We make it through this first wave with the extreme measures, maybe a drug come up that is effective too.  In that scenario, late summer baseball is possible. Let's hope, anyway.

Edited by bluefrogguy

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5 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

The best case scenario is that the virus is indeed weather or humidity variable and/or mutates along the way (a lot of viruses mutate and become less pathogenic over time- that's waht happened to some degree with MERS and SARS) and peters out this summer.  We make it through this first wave with the extreme measures, maybe a drug come up that is effective too.  In that scenario, late summer baseball is possible. Let's hope, anyway.

 

Good post.  I know there is a hint of pessimism going around but we almost have to be that way so we do not take it lightly.

I am optimistic.  I am not sure will take only 2 weeks to flatten the curve.  I feel in two months we will be back to normal.

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Posted (edited)

my apologies if posted already.... but this is important

 

apparently there is a possible cure for the Chinese Virus called HCQ.  very respected doctor in France has used it on 6 people with chinese corona virus and after 6 days all 6 patients tested negative.  apparently whitehouse is pushing this through.  i think the season will start early june

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/malaria-drug-sees-promising-signs-as-future-coronavirus-treatment

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

Edited by jfazz23

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

my apologies if posted already.... but this is important

 

apparently there is a possible cure for the Chinese Virus called HCQ.  very respected doctor in France has used it on 6 people with chinese corona virus and after 6 days all 6 patients tested negative.  apparently whitehouse is pushing this through.  i think the season will start early june

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/malaria-drug-sees-promising-signs-as-future-coronavirus-treatment

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view


https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1239963224298016768?s=20

https://twitter.com/sagleyos/status/1240084748392947713?s=20

Edited by tucker26
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