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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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18 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I read Doctor Fauci doesn’t put much faith in that drug. 

I heard him really just say that it hasn't been researched yet 

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N.J. coronavirus cases spike to 1,327 total with 16 deaths. 442 new positive tests announced.  

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6 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

N.J. coronavirus cases spike to 1,327 total with 16 deaths. 442 new positive tests announced.  

We all know the cases are going to continue to go up and very fast too. This should not be a surprise to anybody.

On another positive note, the FDA approved a Corona Virus testing kit that gives you the results in 45 minutes instead of the days some patients are waiting. This SHOULD help lighten the load on the medical systems that are currently struggling. They will begin shipping out next week.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, jonninho said:

We all know the cases are going to continue to go up and very fast too. This should not be a surprise to anybody.

On another positive note, the FDA approved a Corona Virus testing kit that gives you the results in 45 minutes instead of the days some patients are waiting. This SHOULD help lighten the load on the medical systems that are currently struggling. They will begin shipping out next week.

Obviously you don't know a whole lot about the situation.  These numbers are scary.  The numbers in most other states are dwarfed in comparison.

Edited by MrBrown

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48 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Obviously you don't know a whole lot about the situation.  These numbers are scary.  The numbers in most other states are dwarfed in comparison.

I dont follow Mr.Brown, what about what i said gives you this illusion that i do not know a whole lot about the situation? Im going to assume its safe to say we both have access to the same sort of information. Therefore, when i say we know the number of infections are going to go up and do rapidly and that this isnt a surprise to anybody, its factual information. Why? Access to testing. Of course the numbers are going to be 'scary' because to this point testing wasnt done properly.. human reaction to the dramatic rise in infections? fear. You are exhibit A.

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17 minutes ago, jonninho said:

I dont follow Mr.Brown, what about what i said gives you this illusion that i do not know a whole lot about the situation? Im going to assume its safe to say we both have access to the same sort of information. Therefore, when i say we know the number of infections are going to go up and do rapidly and that this isnt a surprise to anybody, its factual information. Why? Access to testing. Of course the numbers are going to be 'scary' because to this point testing wasnt done properly.. human reaction to the dramatic rise in infections? fear. You are exhibit A.


Sure we have access to the same information. I'm not sure you're using it or even understand it though.  You're just making a blanket statement that "of course numbers are going to go up" well duh thanks for that amazing insight /s. "To this point testing wasn't done properly"  NJ still hasn't even done much testing so citing that as the reason for the increase in cases shows your lack of awareness and understanding.

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8 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Not sure about this. First off there are many viruses that we lump together as being “the common cold”.  Coronavirus account for about 20% of those cases and are indeed more prevalent in winter.  So I think the jury is still very much out on Covid-19 and the warm weather. Not a great sign that it seems to be taking off in Brazil and Malaysia right now though 

Yet the three versions of coronavirus that actually kill are only SARS, MERS and Covid-19.  Lumping this in with the common cold when its MUCH more communicable isn't going to work.  91k recovered 11k dead worldwide so far.  

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1 hour ago, MrBrown said:

Obviously you don't know a whole lot about the situation.  These numbers are scary.  The numbers in most other states are dwarfed in comparison.

Washington has 1793 cases, 94 deaths, but only 27k total tests done in a population of 7.8m.  Think other states may have it worse.

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Washington has 1793 cases, 94 deaths, but only 27k total tests done in a population of 7.8m.  Think other states may have it worse.

Yea the top 3 are 1. New York  2. Washington  3. New Jersey

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Washington has 1793 cases, 94 deaths, but only 27k total tests done in a population of 7.8m.  Think other states may have it worse.

I see your Washington and I raise you New York State with 10,346 cases. Cuomo waited too damn long to put NYC on lockdown. The city is going to be the most devastated area hit by this virus when all is said and done.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Yea the top 3 are 1. New York  2. Washington  3. New Jersey

You left out California at 3 and Florida is attempting a comeback since the stupid teens flocked to the beaches. 

 

21 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I see your Washington and I raise you New York State with 10,346 cases. Cuomo waited too damn long to put NYC on lockdown. The city is going to be the most devastated area hit by this virus when all is said and done.

NYC has tested hundreds of times more than Washington. Only way to get tested in Washington currently is if you have had direct contact with someone who has already gotten tested or if your pneumonia is bad enough to be hospitalized. There are still people in the first hotbed retirement home they haven’t tested. I’ve been off work since March 2nd with all the symptoms and a constant fever. No testing. Just a presumptive positive diagnosis which doesn’t count in the stats. If people actually knew the total number of infected there would be looting right now. 
 

Washington still isn’t locked down

Edited by daynlokki
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New York is doing almost as many tests overnight as Washington has done in the last week and a half. 

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2 hours ago, MrBrown said:

N.J. coronavirus cases spike to 1,327 total with 16 deaths. 442 new positive tests announced.  

The sliver lining is the mortality rate is right around 1%.  Keeping it there or lower would be good news considering the rates in most other countries.  Not to mention all those who may have had it and showed no symptoms or those who had it, showed symptoms and didn't report them.  We know those two scenarios  probably exist, whereas it's pretty hard to not know who has succumbed to it so hopefully that 1% rate goes even lower.

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You left out California at 3 and Florida is attempting a comeback since the stupid teens flocked to the beaches.

No, confirmed cases NJ is #3 not Cali.

1 minute ago, AJdude said:

The sliver lining is the mortality rate is right around 1%.  Keeping it there or lower would be good news considering the rates in most other countries.  Not to mention all those who may have had it and showed no symptoms or those who had it, showed symptoms and didn't report them.  We know those two scenarios  probably exist, whereas it's pretty hard to not know who has succumbed to it so hopefully that 1% rate goes even lower.

Many of the cases are still open, not closed.  Many of the people remain in critical condition.  From the amount of closed cases I believe the death rate is around 10%.

That mortality rate will drop when more tests/data are available though.  Hopefully the open cases don't result in as many deaths.  A hospitalized man in NJ has been taking the anti-malaria drug thats been discussed and reporting great results.  Of course the data isn't an exact measurement, there are no doubt so many more infected.  There are hospital patients that haven't even been added to the confirmed cases since its taken a while to get results.  People are dying before they get results to add them as a confirmed case.  As testing becomes more efficient we'll get an even clearer picture, and hopefully things start to get better.

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9 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Not sure about this. First off there are many viruses that we lump together as being “the common cold”.  Coronavirus account for about 20% of those cases and are indeed more prevalent in winter.  So I think the jury is still very much out on Covid-19 and the warm weather. Not a great sign that it seems to be taking off in Brazil and Malaysia right now though 

 

Merlin my dude you are still conflating two separate concepts here.

 

1.  The efficiency a virus has in spreading during certain temperatures.  Coronaviruses are less efficient in the warmer months due to many reasons such as stronger immune systems and UV lighting etc.  There is a reason July in America has never been the "flu season" and it's always during the colder months.

 

2.  Of course cases are going to increase over time due to compounding infection.  Time is the reason the cases are going up not because its getting warmer.

 

Just because there are cases in warmer climates as well as just because cases in April (warmer) will be higher cases/deaths than March (colder) does not make 1. false.  The science every expert has explained says there is no reason to believe covid-19 will be different than the coronaviruses we already know about.

 

Again it isn't hard for a scientist to study viruses in different temperatures either.  If there was some ground breaking discovery that covid-19 is more effective in the warmth this would already be known.

 

So again the increasing of cases is because it takes time for a virus to spread.

 

So weather warning is going to help.  The Spanish flu went almost entirely away in the summer then came back in the fall.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

You left out California at 3 and Florida is attempting a comeback since the stupid teens flocked to the beaches. 

 

NYC has tested hundreds of times more than Washington. Only way to get tested in Washington currently is if you have had direct contact with someone who has already gotten tested or if your pneumonia is bad enough to be hospitalized. There are still people in the first hotbed retirement home they haven’t tested. I’ve been off work since March 2nd with all the symptoms and a constant fever. No testing. Just a presumptive positive diagnosis which doesn’t count in the stats. If people actually knew the total number of infected there would be looting right now. 
 

Washington still isn’t locked down

 

Damn, that is crazy.  What reasons have the not given for locking down? Here in Nevada I'd say our culture is fairly reckless and most of our economy is done with the lockdown.  We have to be at or near the top for fewest jobs that can be done from home, or made up for with more work later.  But we've been shut down for days.  

 

Well, it sounds like you got a relatively mild version that should hopefully be done soon. Best of luck.

I think a lot of people, including me, were kind of thrown off my some of the discussion of "mild" cases.  There are some very mild or asymptomatic cases, but I think a lot of what is considered mild still might be the sickest you've ever been in your life for a lot of people.  

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Posted (edited)

I'm a biologist who worked at the NYS Dept of Health for nearly 10 years.  I see a LOT of misinformation in this thread.  So much so, that I'm not even going to bother to go through it all and point it all out.

But I will say this...cases are going up for TWO reasons.  1) Increased testing.  2) Increased spread.  Contagious diseases reach a point of exponential spread eventually.  And we are not even there yet.  But rate of infection speeds up over time until exponential spread, at which point cases spike dramatically.  Only after the spike of exponential spread will the rate of transmission begin to slow.  That is, unless you can effectively "flatten the curve".  But I feel the US government has acted too slowly (and continues to act too slowly) to effectively do that.

Mortality rates are much higher in places like Italy for ONE reason.  The healthcare system cannot deal with the number of cases they are seeing.  So patients are not getting the care they should be getting.  Painful choices are being made about who to give treatment to and who not to give it to.  These are awful choices for someone who has dedicated their life to saving others.  Hence the increased mortality rate in these places.

This is a new virus.  There is NO evidence that warm weather is going to slow this down.  There are plenty of "warm" places RIGHT NOW that are seeing the spread of this disease.  It MAY slow down in warmer weather.  But it also might not.  We just don't know. 

Not to try to scare anyone...but Italy is the US in 30-45 days UNLESS total and complete draconian lockdown of ALL people is enacted IMMEDIATELY.  Otherwise, many many people are going to die.

Edited by CAT
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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

 

Washington still isn’t locked down

I'm stunned. I didn't know that.  I just kind of assumed it was.

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1 hour ago, Rotocious said:

 

Merlin my dude you are still conflating two separate concepts here.

 

1.  The efficiency a virus has in spreading during certain temperatures.  Coronaviruses are less efficient in the warmer months due to many reasons such as stronger immune systems and UV lighting etc.  There is a reason July in America has never been the "flu season" and it's always during the colder months.

 

2.  Of course cases are going to increase over time due to compounding infection.  Time is the reason the cases are going up not because its getting warmer.

 

Just because there are cases in warmer climates as well as just because cases in April (warmer) will be higher cases/deaths than March (colder) does not make 1. false.  The science every expert has explained says there is no reason to believe covid-19 will be different than the coronaviruses we already know about.

 

Again it isn't hard for a scientist to study viruses in different temperatures either.  If there was some ground breaking discovery that covid-19 is more effective in the warmth this would already be known.

 

So again the increasing of cases is because it takes time for a virus to spread.

 

So weather warning is going to help.  The Spanish flu went almost entirely away in the summer then came back in the fall.

The flu isn’t a coronavirus is the problem there. You are comparing apples to oranges. What are coronaviruses are SARS, which peaked in May and lasted through the summer before declining in the fall, and MERS which is usually only found in warm climates. They are in the same family as covid-19. Comparing this to the flu would be like comparing a Yugo to a Ferrari. Ya, they are both cars but how they do anything won’t be similar. Fact is, even experts say they don’t know because nobody can until the weather warms up. 

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32 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I'm stunned. I didn't know that.  I just kind of assumed it was.

Nope. Insley is afraid of the financial ramifications of a full lockdown. Places are voluntarily gearing down but kids are literally hangin out at skate parks right now. 

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42 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Damn, that is crazy.  What reasons have the not given for locking down? Here in Nevada I'd say our culture is fairly reckless and most of our economy is done with the lockdown.  We have to be at or near the top for fewest jobs that can be done from home, or made up for with more work later.  But we've been shut down for days.  

 

Well, it sounds like you got a relatively mild version that should hopefully be done soon. Best of luck.

I think a lot of people, including me, were kind of thrown off my some of the discussion of "mild" cases.  There are some very mild or asymptomatic cases, but I think a lot of what is considered mild still might be the sickest you've ever been in your life for a lot of people.  

Ive been worse. It’s more annoying than anything else. I can’t sleep in bed, have to be on an incline or I can’t breathe. Constant fever, but with fever spikes. Worried more for the wife as she has type 1 diabetes and is quarantined with me. 

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2 hours ago, MrBrown said:

No, confirmed cases NJ is #3 not Cali.

Many of the cases are still open, not closed.  Many of the people remain in critical condition.  From the amount of closed cases I believe the death rate is around 10%.

That mortality rate will drop when more tests/data are available though.  Hopefully the open cases don't result in as many deaths.  A hospitalized man in NJ has been taking the anti-malaria drug thats been discussed and reporting great results.  Of course the data isn't an exact measurement, there are no doubt so many more infected.  There are hospital patients that haven't even been added to the confirmed cases since its taken a while to get results.  People are dying before they get results to add them as a confirmed case.  As testing becomes more efficient we'll get an even clearer picture, and hopefully things start to get better.

What does a "closed case" mean in terms of the data showing up on the Hopkins website?

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26 minutes ago, AJdude said:

What does a "closed case" mean in terms of the data showing up on the Hopkins website?

Closed cases end in either death or recovery. No in between. The final death% number will be based off those two numbers in closed cases. 

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12 minutes ago, AJdude said:

What does a "closed case" mean in terms of the data showing up on the Hopkins website?

Opened case are active cases of people with the disease, whether they will recover or die is undetermined.  The closed cases are people who no longer have it, they either died or recovered. So what percentage of people have recovered and what percentage have died.  The data is obviously skewed due to the lack of tests, some people will recover and you'll never hear about them if they didn't feel sick enough to go to a doctor or get tested.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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