bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Nope. Insley is afraid of the financial ramifications of a full lockdown. Places are voluntarily gearing down but kids are literally hangin out at skate parks right now. 

 

I don't know the party, or even the first name/gender, but I assume that career is over.  How do you look at SK and Italy and think, well we better do the Italy model to protect the economy?  Holy cow.  

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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

The flu isn’t a coronavirus is the problem there. You are comparing apples to oranges. What are coronaviruses are SARS, which peaked in May and lasted through the summer before declining in the fall, and MERS which is usually only found in warm climates. They are in the same family as covid-19. Comparing this to the flu would be like comparing a Yugo to a Ferrari. Ya, they are both cars but how they do anything won’t be similar. Fact is, even experts say they don’t know because nobody can until the weather warms up. 

 

You are still getting confused thinking ccorrelation equals causation here when it doesn't.  

 

Needing time to compound is why the cases and deaths grow even as the weather warms.  Not because warmer weather is more conducive to spreading the virus.

 

You still don't believe me read what MIT has to say about it:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/

 

 

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3 hours ago, CAT said:

I'm a biologist who worked at the NYS Dept of Health for nearly 10 years.  I see a LOT of misinformation in this thread.  So much so, that I'm not even going to bother to go through it all and point it all out.

But I will say this...cases are going up for TWO reasons.  1) Increased testing.  2) Increased spread.  Contagious diseases reach a point of exponential spread eventually.  And we are not even there yet.  But rate of infection speeds up over time until exponential spread, at which point cases spike dramatically.  Only after the spike of exponential spread will the rate of transmission begin to slow.  That is, unless you can effectively "flatten the curve".  But I feel the US government has acted too slowly (and continues to act too slowly) to effectively do that.

Mortality rates are much higher in places like Italy for ONE reason.  The healthcare system cannot deal with the number of cases they are seeing.  So patients are not getting the care they should be getting.  Painful choices are being made about who to give treatment to and who not to give it to.  These are awful choices for someone who has dedicated their life to saving others.  Hence the increased mortality rate in these places.

This is a new virus.  There is NO evidence that warm weather is going to slow this down.  There are plenty of "warm" places RIGHT NOW that are seeing the spread of this disease.  It MAY slow down in warmer weather.  But it also might not.  We just don't know. 

Not to try to scare anyone...but Italy is the US in 30-45 days UNLESS total and complete draconian lockdown of ALL people is enacted IMMEDIATELY.  Otherwise, many many people are going to die.

 

So a few things. 

 

1. Obviously there are many factors for Italy to be in the position they are in.  Yes the main factor is their healthcare system is overwhelmed. But let's be real it clearly is not the only factor.  Many are listed in this thread.

 

2.  There is plenty of evidence that covid-19 won't be as effective in the warmth.  Read the article I linked above or just do a quick search.

 

3.  It MAY not slow down in the warmer weather because a virus infection spreads exponentially.  That happens over time.  Again corellation does not always equal causation.  Simple mathematics is tell us over time it's going to spread faster and faster as more and more people get infected.  So when the experts are saying that they dont know what will happen in warmer weather they are talking about the rate of infection.  They aren't saying that they don't know that covid-19 isn't as strong in the warmth. They are more so saying even with it warming up the rate of infection may not slow down still because of the compounding growth. 

 

Also no experts are disagreeing that people's immune systems are better in the warmth any medical professional can tell you that.

 

A good point was made earlier in here that we would be in a lot more trouble if we were in November about to enter colder weather as opposed to being in March about to enter spring.

 

 

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Another silver lining is the more recoveries there are means the more access to antibodies that the human immune system naturally creates to kill the virus.  Those antibodies will help stream line drugs to help treat covid19 as well as maybe even a cure and/or vaccine.

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14 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

So a few things. 

 

1. Obviously there are many factors for Italy to be in the position they are in.  Yes the main factor is their healthcare system is overwhelmed. But let's be real it clearly is not the only factor.  Many are listed in this thread.

 

2.  There is plenty of evidence that covid-19 won't be as effective in the warmth.  Read the article I linked above or just do a quick search.

 

3.  It MAY not slow down in the warmer weather because a virus infection spreads exponentially.  That happens over time.  Again corellation does not always equal causation.  Simple mathematics is tell us over time it's going to spread faster and faster as more and more people get infected.  So when the experts are saying that they dont know what will happen in warmer weather they are talking about the rate of infection.  They aren't saying that they don't know that covid-19 isn't as strong in the warmth. They are more so saying even with it warming up the rate of infection may not slow down still because of the compounding growth. 

 

Also no experts are disagreeing that people's immune systems are better in the warmth any medical professional can tell you that.

 

A good point was made earlier in here that we would be in a lot more trouble if we were in November about to enter colder weather as opposed to being in March about to enter spring.

 

 

 

How can you say this? 

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11 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

2.  There is plenty of evidence that covid-19 won't be as effective in the warmth.  Read the article I linked above or just do a quick search.

Since we haven't gotten into warm weather and since people in the southern hemisphere have and are seeing large increases -- see Australia, NZ and Sao Paulo being shut down in Brazil -- I'd say whatever article you pulled off the internet was wrong.  Also Italy and Spain are already warming up a lot and they are heavy hit.  Same for India.  And since we haven't been through summer in the northern hemisphere with this virus ever I'd say there is zero "evidence" since no evidence here has been gathered yet.

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37 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

You are still getting confused thinking ccorrelation equals causation here when it doesn't.  

 

Needing time to compound is why the cases and deaths grow even as the weather warms.  Not because warmer weather is more conducive to spreading the virus.

 

You still don't believe me read what MIT has to say about it:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615381/coronavirus-spread-could-slow-with-warmer-weather/

 

 

I’m gonna listen to the WHO here. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

Its already spreading in warm climates. What makes you think that’s going to change based purely on hemisphere?

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39 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

How can you say this? 

I'm guessing because that this is typically the case. 

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51 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I’m gonna listen to the WHO here. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

Its already spreading in warm climates. What makes you think that’s going to change based purely on hemisphere?

 

No one is saying it cannot spread during warmer weather.  The warmer weather will just be less conducive for infection than colder weather.  People still get the flu in May.  But that doesn't equate to a reasonable expectation of more flu transmission in May than in December.

 

The link you provided doesn't say anything other than there are cases in warmer weather countries.  That doesn't prove the arguement you're trying to make and it certainly doesn't disprove what I've been trying to explain to you.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/what-effect-will-winter-have-on-coronavirus-in-australia

 

 

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Covid-19 may be a new virus but it isn't some revolutionary thing that the world has never seen.  Viruses have known properties about them.  There's no reason to believe that covid-19 is going to all of a sudden be different in that regard.  Also it isn't hard to study in a lab.  See how much longer it can survive in different temperatures.  See the effect of UV light.  We already know the human immune system is stronger when its warmer.

 

You guys are using false equivalencies to try to valid an arguement that you aren't even understanding.  No we don't need to have warmer weather to be able to understand how a virus reacts in different temperatures.  A lot of this can be seen in a  lab and known through past coronaviruses.

 

When cars are given safety ratings people don't disregard them because we haven't seen the cars on the road yet in mass quantity.  Science is used to project and predict how things will go forward without actually having seen it before.  How do you think the first space launch was pulled off.  Naysayers could sit there and tell the NASA people we won't know until we do it.  Through science we can have a good idea about something before it happens.

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Our immune systems are stronger in the summer time but by then the damage will already be done.  Most will come into contact with it before then.  In NJ they're talking about the possibility of snow soon.

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Using false equivalencies? Two virus’ of the same family THRIVE in warmer climates. Assuming this one is not going to do that is asinine, especially when the pandemic has just started. No matter what, cases are going to exponentially expand at this point. 

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What concerns me about this pandemic and going forward are Viruses abilities to continue to evolve and adapt.Thus creating strains in the future that weather may have zero impact on. Unfortunately we as humans are susceptible to illnesses which puts all at risk. 

Some say history repeats itself and the widespread of this virus is similar to the Spanish Flu in the earlier 1900's. I believe that unfortunately took too many lives and many more than COVID-19 at this point.

I'm just an Average Joe who unfortunately can be negatively impacted by this pandemic. Im not trying to pretend to be a Biologist or Historian. This just sucks. 

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7 hours ago, Rotocious said:

 

No one is saying it cannot spread during warmer weather.  The warmer weather will just be less conducive for infection than colder weather.  People still get the flu in May.  But that doesn't equate to a reasonable expectation of more flu transmission in May than in December.

 

The link you provided doesn't say anything other than there are cases in warmer weather countries.  That doesn't prove the arguement you're trying to make and it certainly doesn't disprove what I've been trying to explain to you.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/what-effect-will-winter-have-on-coronavirus-in-australia

 

 

Except it’s already spreading... and greatly in warm weather countries. You do realize it’s summer in the entire Southern Hemisphere right?

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Except it’s already spreading... and greatly in warm weather countries. You do realize it’s summer in the entire Southern Hemisphere right?

 

You still obviously aren't understanding ... Also its fall about to be winter in the southern hemisphere.

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The problem with the idea of a "full draconian lockdown" in the United States is that it is impossible. Enforcement would be too difficult and put the enforcers and those enforced into dangerous situations that could escalate into pure chaos. 

You think people are freaking out now? Order martial law and see that this is only the tip of the iceberg 

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Posted (edited)

This is not a negotiation. It is now your duty to isolate as much as possible. Also, I have caught two home-runs in my life. One from Greg Brock in right field at the old Municipal Stadium (there was only two people in right field back then)  and one from Jesse Barfield in left field in Toronto. The last thing that we need is panic. If you call off of work, the first thing that you want to do is nothing. Pretend that it is that day.

 

Edited by drunkb
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9 minutes ago, drunkb said:

This is not a negotiation. It is now your duty to isolate as much as possible. Also, I have caught two home-runs in my life. One from Greg Brock in right field at the old Municipal Stadium (there was only two people in right field back then)  and one from Jesse Barfield in left field in Toronto. The last thing that we need is panic. If you call off of work, the first thing that you want to do is nothing. Pretend that it is that day.

 

 

Image result for wait what gif

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1 minute ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Image result for wait what gif

 Haha yes! Ups and downers and all-arounders. 

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10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

I’m gonna listen to the WHO here.


Who Are You?

 

I bet You Won’t Get Fooled Again. 

 

This is My Generation, and don’t Hide Behind Blue Eyes. 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Rotocious said:

Covid-19 may be a new virus but it isn't some revolutionary thing that the world has never seen.  Viruses have known properties about them.  There's no reason to believe that covid-19 is going to all of a sudden be different in that regard.  Also it isn't hard to study in a lab.  See how much longer it can survive in different temperatures.  See the effect of UV light.  We already know the human immune system is stronger when its warmer.

 

You guys are using false equivalencies to try to valid an arguement that you aren't even understanding.  No we don't need to have warmer weather to be able to understand how a virus reacts in different temperatures.  A lot of this can be seen in a  lab and known through past coronaviruses.

 

When cars are given safety ratings people don't disregard them because we haven't seen the cars on the road yet in mass quantity.  Science is used to project and predict how things will go forward without actually having seen it before.  How do you think the first space launch was pulled off.  Naysayers could sit there and tell the NASA people we won't know until we do it.  Through science we can have a good idea about something before it happens.

 

So you are saying the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is wrong??  Fauci himself has said EXACTLY what I have said regarding the potential seasonality of this particular virus.  He is THE expert in this area.  Please stop contradicting the experts.  This is half the reason we are in the position we are in.  Loads of misinformation and half-baked opinion-based BS.

 

PS - As I said, I AM a scientist...a biologist in fact, with experience working at a Dept of Health.  Please don't try to tell me how science works, LOFL.  Science is *NOT* about projections.  Science *IS* about generating actual data, and analyzing that data and making conclusions BASED ON DATA.  Not opinions.

Edited by CAT
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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

The problem with the idea of a "full draconian lockdown" in the United States is that it is impossible. Enforcement would be too difficult and put the enforcers and those enforced into dangerous situations that could escalate into pure chaos. 

You think people are freaking out now? Order martial law and see that this is only the tip of the iceberg 

 

True.  I honestly think in the next 2 weeks they're going to say America did a really good job with this whole thing and flattened the hell out of that curve.

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1 minute ago, Rotocious said:

 

True.  I honestly think in the next 2 weeks they're going to say America did a really good job with this whole thing and flattened the hell out of that curve.

 

I hope so, for all of our sake.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, CAT said:

 

So you are saying the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is wrong??  Fauci himself has said EXACTLY what I have said regarding the potential seasonality of this particular virus.  He is THE expert in this area.  Please stop contradicting the experts.  This is half the reason we are in the position we are in.  Loads of misinformation and half-baked opinion-based BS.

 

PS - As I said, I AM a scientist...a biologist in fact, with experience working at a Dept of Health.  Please don't try to tell me how science works, LOFL.  Science is *NOT* about projections.  Science *IS* about generating actual data, and analyzing that data and making conclusions BASED ON DATA.  Not opinions.

 

I haven't contradicted the experts.  You continue to conflate 2 separate concepts. 

 

They are saying don't count on it going away because of warmer weather.  They certainly haven't said we expect the virus to operate more effectively in the warmth.  They simply are just tempering people's expectations because they know as time goes on cases will continue to grow.  That's just how compounding works.

 

I'm not arguing that.  I am just saying we know it isn't as effective in the warmth.  So it's a silver lining that we are going into warmer weather.  You guys keep trying to say there's no evidence of that which is completely false.

 

Also what do you think the CDC scientists have been doing? Projective modeling.  Science can certainly be projecting.

 

Yes cases will go up because of TIME not because of the WARMTH.  Use facts not anecdotes.

Edited by Rotocious

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1 hour ago, drunkb said:

Also, I have caught two home-runs in my life. One from Greg Brock in right field at the old Municipal Stadium (there was only two people in right field back then)  and one from Jesse Barfield in left field in Toronto. 

 

I don't know the relevance of this story but I enjoyed it.  Hope you got them autographed.

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