bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Synopsis of this thread:

1) lots of interesting stuff coupled with lots of:

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I’m more optimistic for the first time in a week that there will be baseball this year. The Chinese data shows that most transmission was between families, social circles and the workplace- I.e. adults spending extended time worth someone shedding the virus. Not as much short exposure transmission and they basically found no school transmission. Public health personnel can work with that transmission pattern in terms of contact tracing and mitigating spread should we get a new local outbreak. Second, is this report about loss of smell and taste that turns out to be pretty common. Still early but if there is a unique sentinel sign of infection to look for, that could be utilized to make people isolate or get tested. And speaking of testing, first rapid, 1 hr TAT tear was approved for emergence use authorization (EUA) by the CDC. Once testing becomes easily available, that will be helpful in surveillance and early diagnosis. Add in the hope that the virus mutates and/or shows some seasonality and we might be able to come up with a public health strategy that removes the restrictions on crowd size. We probably still recommend the at risk from being in big crowds and obviously hand washing and restricting physical contact would continue, but events with lots of attendees like sporting events could be allowed (again, once we are through this acute phase where it is everywhere). Still questions on what would happen with a local outbreak, especially if athletes involved, though. Some kind of treatment breakthrough would obviously be huge. 
 

Next two weeks are going to be rough though. Especially in NYC. We are definitely going to stress the limits of our health care system and providers. Those people can’t be appreciated enough. 

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14 hours ago, meh2 said:

Let me know when the Italian sports leagues are going to resume because our measures to contain this virus are nothing like what S Korea, China, and Japan did. Our country as a whole has underestimated this virus from day one and continues to do so.

 

I know we have dragged our feet and not everyone is taking this shelter in place very seriously... But the US is slightly different from Italy. For one thing Italy has a disproportionate elder population. Also There are a lot of smokers in Italy compared to the USA. I am not saying that we are gonna get out of this unscathed, but there are other factors as to why Italy is suffering worse than the rest of the world. I am still gonna stick by my point that baseball in Mid-May is still possible with most of the country still in Quarantine and they play in empty stadiums, this is not unreasonable at all. Even if there is going to be NFL in the fall, it will be with empty stadiums, that is going to have to be the new norm for this year. 

 

I just really need baseball right now to help distract me... I can only watch so many old games on MLB Network.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fnwqt-UAOyQ

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48 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

I’m more optimistic for the first time in a week that there will be baseball this year. The Chinese data shows that most transmission was between families, social circles and the workplace- I.e. adults spending extended time worth someone shedding the virus. Not as much short exposure transmission and they basically found no school transmission. Public health personnel can work with that transmission pattern in terms of contact tracing and mitigating spread should we get a new local outbreak. Second, is this report about loss of smell and taste that turns out to be pretty common. Still early but if there is a unique sentinel sign of infection to look for, that could be utilized to make people isolate or get tested. And speaking of testing, first rapid, 1 hr TAT tear was approved for emergence use authorization (EUA) by the CDC. Once testing becomes easily available, that will be helpful in surveillance and early diagnosis. Add in the hope that the virus mutates and/or shows some seasonality and we might be able to come up with a public health strategy that removes the restrictions on crowd size. We probably still recommend the at risk from being in big crowds and obviously hand washing and restricting physical contact would continue, but events with lots of attendees like sporting events could be allowed (again, once we are through this acute phase where it is everywhere). Still questions on what would happen with a local outbreak, especially if athletes involved, though. Some kind of treatment breakthrough would obviously be huge. 
 

Next two weeks are going to be rough though. Especially in NYC. We are definitely going to stress the limits of our health care system and providers. Those people can’t be appreciated enough. 


The Chinese also told us it didn't spread human to human.  You're putting too much trust in this data from China. 

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9 minutes ago, MrBrown said:


The Chinese also told us it didn't spread human to human.  You're putting too much trust in this data from China. 

Yeah I’m not trusting anything coming from China.

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9 minutes ago, MrBrown said:


The Chinese also told us it didn't spread human to human.  You're putting too much trust in this data from China. 

 

Agree with the skepticism, but I also don't dismissing the data out of hand is the right thing to do either. Obviously will need to look at our own data over time to confirm before deciding on the next step to take public health wise. But if it is confirmed and the spread is mostly through close contact (family, social circles and workplace) , that opens up more (and less intrusive) options to mitigate future outbreaks. 

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17 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

I know we have dragged our feet and not everyone is taking this shelter in place very seriously... But the US is slightly different from Italy. For one thing Italy has a disproportionate elder population. Also There are a lot of smokers in Italy compared to the USA. I am not saying that we are gonna get out of this unscathed, but there are other factors as to why Italy is suffering worse than the rest of the world. I am still gonna stick by my point that baseball in Mid-May is still possible with most of the country still in Quarantine and they play in empty stadiums, this is not unreasonable at all. Even if there is going to be NFL in the fall, it will be with empty stadiums, that is going to have to be the new norm for this year. 

 

I just really need baseball right now to help distract me... I can only watch so many old games on MLB Network.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fnwqt-UAOyQ

This is false.  There are way more smokers in the US it isn't even close. Italians are also healthier than Americans, in general.  Saying that Italy has a "disproportionate elder population" is an exaggeration.  They're also a country with one of the highest life expectancy's in the world.  This virus is devastating that. The virus doesn't only kill the elderly.

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

I’m more optimistic for the first time in a week that there will be baseball this year. The Chinese data shows that most transmission was between families, social circles and the workplace- I.e. adults spending extended time worth someone shedding the virus. Not as much short exposure transmission and they basically found no school transmission. Public health personnel can work with that transmission pattern in terms of contact tracing and mitigating spread should we get a new local outbreak. Second, is this report about loss of smell and taste that turns out to be pretty common. Still early but if there is a unique sentinel sign of infection to look for, that could be utilized to make people isolate or get tested. And speaking of testing, first rapid, 1 hr TAT tear was approved for emergence use authorization (EUA) by the CDC. Once testing becomes easily available, that will be helpful in surveillance and early diagnosis. Add in the hope that the virus mutates and/or shows some seasonality and we might be able to come up with a public health strategy that removes the restrictions on crowd size. We probably still recommend the at risk from being in big crowds and obviously hand washing and restricting physical contact would continue, but events with lots of attendees like sporting events could be allowed (again, once we are through this acute phase where it is everywhere). Still questions on what would happen with a local outbreak, especially if athletes involved, though. Some kind of treatment breakthrough would obviously be huge. 
 

Next two weeks are going to be rough though. Especially in NYC. We are definitely going to stress the limits of our health care system and providers. Those people can’t be appreciated enough. 

Hydrochloroquine and Z pack are going to work. The media will do it's best to poo poo it until the election. 

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17 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

This is false.  There are way more smokers in the US it isn't even close. Italians are also healthier than Americans, in general.  Saying that Italy has a "disproportionate elder population" is an exaggeration.  They're also a country with one of the highest life expectancy's in the world.  This virus is devastating that. The virus doesn't only kill the elderly.

Lol you can’t use raw numbers to compare a country of 325M to a country of 60M. 24% of Italian adults smoke. 15% of US adults. That’s significant. 
It’s also not an exaggeration to say they have a disproportionate elder population. Their median age is 7 years older than the US. 
And while no one suggested this virus “only kills the elderly,” what every country is seeing is that the risk of death continues to rise, and those 50+ are most at risk.

There are many things to discuss/debate about this disease. These frankly are not any of them. These are facts.

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3 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Hydrochloroquine and Z pack are going to work. The media will do it's best to poo poo it until the election. 

 

Definitely needs some wider randomized testing, which should be easy to do right now. If it is effective, it will definitely get a lot of press.  But right now it is akin to the proverbial over-hyped, spring training "small sample size" data. Have to be careful until you get good data. I'm also hopeful for some of the antiviral options coming through. Let's go human ingenuity!

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9 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lol you can’t use raw numbers to compare a country of 325M to a country of 60M. 24% of Italian adults smoke. 15% of US adults. That’s significant. 
It’s also not an exaggeration to say they have a disproportionate elder population. Their median age is 7 years older than the US. 
And while no one suggested this virus “only kills the elderly,” what every country is seeing is that the risk of death continues to rise, and those 50+ are most at risk.

There are many things to discuss/debate about this disease. These frankly are not any of them. These are facts.

 

I think there are demographic differences. But the biggest difference is the timing of response (hopefully). We got to learn from their mistakes. At least hopefully we timed our response better.  We'll find out this week. 

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37 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

This is false.  There are way more smokers in the US it isn't even close. Italians are also healthier than Americans, in general.  Saying that Italy has a "disproportionate elder population" is an exaggeration.  They're also a country with one of the highest life expectancy's in the world.  This virus is devastating that. The virus doesn't only kill the elderly.

 

that's actually not true homie, italy has a higher smoker rate per capita over the United States. And it is not an exageration that they have a higher elder population in relation to the rest of the country. Germany is seeing a decline coronavirus and they are not in complete lockdown.

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8 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

Oxford now reporting infection Fatality rate of  0.19% which probably makes it less dangerous than the Flu. this i nothing more than media hysteria...or is this anecdotal evidence too

 

1.  I like how you throw "probably" in here as if the estimated IFR of seasonal flu is some mystery.  It's not -- it's 0.1%, a figure that's been included in nearly every report on COVID-19, including in bleeding heart publications like The National Review and Reason magazine.

2.  Your link, which did previously say the IFR was 0.19%, was updated without explanation since you posted it to say 0.20%, with a different range for the 95% confidence interval.  The same link was updated several times over the weekend , with the terms "IFR" and "infection fatality rate" not appearing at all.  At some point, the authors decided to pivot from CFR to IFR, but without changing their methodology, and without noting this change, which does not inspire confidence.  So yes, it's very much anecdotal evidence.

3. Even if this newest lowball estimate is correct despite these glaring problems, using an advanced mathematical technique known as "division", we can see that a 0.20% (or 0.19%) fatality rate would be between 1.9 times and 2.0 times the fatality rate of the seasonal flu.

4. COVID-19 has no vaccine, seasonal flu does.  Without the vaccine, seasonal flu would be much worse.

5. COVID-19 deaths are in addition to those from seasonal flu, not replacing them.

 

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1 minute ago, TribeFoo said:

Everyone in this thread:

 

Doesn't take an MD to smell BS. :)

 

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23 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lol you can’t use raw numbers to compare a country of 325M to a country of 60M. 24% of Italian adults smoke. 15% of US adults. That’s significant. 
It’s also not an exaggeration to say they have a disproportionate elder population. Their median age is 7 years older than the US. 
And while no one suggested this virus “only kills the elderly,” what every country is seeing is that the risk of death continues to rise, and those 50+ are most at risk.

There are many things to discuss/debate about this disease. These frankly are not any of them. These are facts.

And why not?  US has 18.62% of their population in the age range of 0-14 vs 13.6% in Italy  That extra bit of context can help when you're talking about a country with a population where 17.25% smokes vs 24%.  The elderly comments are just silly and not going to go over that one again.

 

5 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

that's actually not true homie, italy has a higher smoker rate per capita over the United States. And it is not an exageration that they have a higher elder population in relation to the rest of the country. Germany is seeing a decline coronavirus and they are not in complete lockdown.

Read comment above, homes.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

5. COVID-19 deaths are in addition to those from seasonal flu, not replacing them.

 

 

Amazes me how the complainers seem to think that every other ailment our health system needs to deal with just disappears in times like these. 

Edited by Junkie Cosmonaut

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5 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

And why not?  US has 18.62% of their population in the age range of 0-14 vs 13.6% in Italy  That extra bit of context can help when you're talking about a country with a population where 17.25% smokes vs 24%.  The elderly comments are just silly and not going to go over that one again.

 

Read comment above, homes.

 

You too read the comments above homie. 😘

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Tomorrow, Tuesday March 24th, 2020 has the potential to be the beginning of the end of this. 

Lets all hope and pray to the Gods above that the testing that is about to begin in NY will prove successful enough that the majority of us can begin to see the light and the turn around of this horrible time throughout the world that has claimed so many lives to this point.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

I think there are demographic differences. But the biggest difference is the timing of response (hopefully). We got to learn from their mistakes. At least hopefully we timed our response better.  We'll find out this week. 

Ackchyually.....it’ll take about 2 to 3 weeks to see if stricter social distancing measures / people taking it more seriously is working.  This is because of the length of time it takes for symptoms to appear, the time it takes to get tested, and the time it takes to get the test results.  I thought the same thing a week ago, that “we’d see results of social distancing here in a few days.” One of the top doctors where I live described covid19 numbers as “looking at a star”.  The numbers we see now are what was going on like a week to 10 days ago.  The danger of this is that numbers would be expected to increase, even moreso if testing becomes easier, and people would think that isolation measures aren’t working even though they might well be.

stay safe.

Edited by Cesare13
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2 hours ago, Picard56 said:

 

I know we have dragged our feet and not everyone is taking this shelter in place very seriously... But the US is slightly different from Italy. For one thing Italy has a disproportionate elder population. Also There are a lot of smokers in Italy compared to the USA. I am not saying that we are gonna get out of this unscathed, but there are other factors as to why Italy is suffering worse than the rest of the world. I am still gonna stick by my point that baseball in Mid-May is still possible with most of the country still in Quarantine and they play in empty stadiums, this is not unreasonable at all. Even if there is going to be NFL in the fall, it will be with empty stadiums, that is going to have to be the new norm for this year. 

 

I just really need baseball right now to help distract me... I can only watch so many old games on MLB Network.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fnwqt-UAOyQ


you say a lot of smokers in Italy.

the United States May be the most unhealthy of them all. It is said the Cov19 attacks those w underlying conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular conditions, heart disease etc. Take a look around at how poorly Americans take care of themselves. We are prime targets for the c19. Go compare our general health stats w the likes of China. Americans taking the whole damn cake son. 🧁 

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44 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Ackchyually.....it’ll take about 2 to 3 weeks to see if stricter social distancing measures / people taking it more seriously is working.  This is because of the length of time it takes for symptoms to appear, the time it takes to get tested, and the time it takes to get the test results.  I thought the same thing a week ago, that “we’d see results of social distancing here in a few days.” One of the top doctors where I live described covid19 numbers as “looking at a star”.  The numbers we see now are what was going on like a week to 10 days ago.  The danger of this is that numbers would be expected to increase, even moreso if testing becomes easier, and people would think that isolation measures aren’t working even though they might well be.

stay safe.

 

Yeah I agree, although social distancing messaging started 10 days ago and mass public closings started about a week ago, so we should start to see how well we are doing this week as that is in the 5-9 day time frame. Early returns are not so promising though, tbh. 

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7 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Yeah I agree, although social distancing messaging started 10 days ago and mass public closings started about a week ago, so we should start to see how well we are doing this week as that is in the 5-9 day time frame. Early returns are not so promising though, tbh. 

Basically false.  On Friday NJ became the 5th state to issue a lockdown. It's only been a couple days and most states haven't done anything.  Michigan just issued a lockdown today telling everyone to stay home.

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